Wednesday August 8th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday August 8th 2007

yesterday: 8-1 +10.02
August: 37-24 +17.00
ml 18-11 +7.18
rl 4-1 +3.69
totals 8-6 +0.15
parlays 7-6 +5.98
system picks 4-0 yesterday; 9-5 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 9-11 in August

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mil 55% (+107)+6
Phil 57 (-129)even
Cin 60 (-120)+5
atl 51 (-105)-1
cubs 56 (+101)+6
Stl 51 (-109)-2
Ariz 51 (-132)-6 pitt 49 (+124)+4
Sf 52 (-145)-8 wash 48 (+137)+5
Det 56 (-130)-1
nyy 54 (-116)even
Balt 58 (-103)+7
min 66 (-212)-2 RL 53 (-130)-4
clev 64 (-139)+5 RL 50 (+120)+4
Tex 51 (-109)-2
Laa 52 (+108)+3

system totals

atl@Mets un8 67% (+104)+17 --ump Poncino is even
wash@Sf un8 65 (-120)+10 --Bell is a decent UNDER-ump (always high K%)
tb@Det un10 65 (-115)+11 --ump Fletcher is even
bost@Laa ov9.5 72 (-112)+19 --ump Hallion is even


On top of things. Couldn't have been much better. Went 6-1 on the moneyline, 1-0 on totals and had my IF play make it through to the 7th game?games 8 & 9 on that ticket came in, too. System sides went 12-3 overall, even picking 3 winning dogs on Tuesday while recommending a 4th that also came in. That 5-day winning streak came easy. 6 will be tough as I'm not crazy about Wednesday's board; it should be a light one for me.

No system picks today?too bad as they're on a nice 8-1 run. A bit of value with the Brewers as they've hit Francis well before and are one of the top teams in MLB vs lefties; still could be tricky as Francis has been sharp lately and the Rockies have taken the first 2 in this series, scoring a ton yesterday (11). Reds have some value, too (if Harang), but Aaron is coming off an injury and I am seeing a lot of bad outtings by pitcher's that are coming off of injuries, or off the DL?this seems to be very consistent so I think that I'll leave that one alone. Some value with the Cubs but they've let the Astros take the first 2 in that one, Oswalt looks sharp lately, and Carlos is coming off of an outting that he had to leave early due to dehydration?should be a good game?I'd try it under an 8 but I'm a little hesitant at the 7.5 (ump Meriwether doesn't help any?he's had a pretty low K% for the past few years). Pirates and Nats may have a bit of value?Pitt due to the D'Backs trouble with lefties and the Nationals due to Redding's outstanding work as well as Cain' poor numbers vs them; not really enough value for the low probabilities?Nats line has gone down so I'll likely pass?Cain's last 2 have been good then great. Orioles are worth a shot; they've hit Felix before (.345 BAA in 5 vs; Felix is 2-2 against them) and I think they've got the better SP going in Guthrie. Indians definitely look worth a shot as Sabathia has very good numbers vs the Chisox, including a nice game this season, while Garland has poor numbers vs the Indians, including one bad game this season.

I like the Giants game under and the Angels game over. I'm still toying with the idea of trying Smoltz-Hernandez under the 8.

Will post what's played.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

brewers ov4.5 -125 (+7)moneyline looks better
Phillies ov5.5 -105 (+9)dunno...Willis reasonably decent his last 2
dodgers un4.5 -125 (-6)risky with Harang maybe not 100%; moneyline is cheaper, though Dodgers bats in a real funk lately; park is not ideal; ump Kulpa is even
Mets un4 -120 (-8)pass for me--Smoltz not dominant over his past 2
cubs un3.5 +100 (-6)not at Minute Maid; Astros middle relief, if needed, is pretty bad
Astros un3.5 +105 (-13)more likely, perhaps, but park and ump tell me to pass
Giants un4 -105 (-10)ump helps; game total under looks better, to me; Giants 7-day OPS beneath .700...season OPS not much higher
m's un4 -105 (-8)ump Randazzo doesn't help any under plays in this one--always a low K%; moneyline for me
KC un3.5 -145 (-14)kinda pricey; might come in as Twins are winning low-scoring games lately; ump Nauert is even
Chisox un4 -125 (-10)only 2 hits yesterday off of Westbrook, who they had hit before; Sabathia good numbers vs; ump Drake is even; moneyline looks safer
bosox ov4.5 -140 (+10)decent shot here; I like the game total over
Angels ov4.5 -130 (+8)they've hit Lester before, in years past; side is a tough call so game total looks best to me


Bosox over and KC under look the most promising of the bunch, but there's fairly heavy juice on each of them.
How about parlaying them?

Kc under 3.5 (-14) -145 64%?
bost over 4.5 (+10) -140 65%?
------------------------------------------------
crazy 2-teamer 42% (+190)+7

42 x 1.9 = 79.8
58 x -1...= -58
--------------------------
................21.8%


Not sure how confident I am in the probabilities that I assigned here. Bosox will get 27 outs against the Angels worst starter and bullpen--that bullpen might shut them down but they could easily get 4 or 5 over the first 5; I'd say that a 3 is about the minimum we should expect from the Bosox on Wednesday...

Bosox score.....probability(%)
0........................1
1........................3
2........................6
3........................12
4........................20
5........................20
6........................20
7........................13
8+......................5


With the crazy act I'm trying to perform, I get the Bosox scoring 5 or more 58% of the time.
Taking the average of my 65% guess and my 58% extended guess, I get a 61.5% chance to score 5 or more...call it 62% to be generous.


KC score...........probability
0.........................10
1.........................17
2.........................25
3.........................20
4.........................17
5.........................8
6+.......................3


With this fooling around I get the Royals to score under 4 runs 72% of the time. Taking the average of my 64% guess and my 72% extended guess gives me 68% under the 3.5.


KC under 3.5 68% (-145)+8
bosox over 4.5 62% (-140)+3

KC under clearly looks best of the two.

Parlayed?...

I get the same 42% probability (.68 x .62),
so my ROI will be the same as above.

ROI result looks fine but a 42% probability looks like a desperate move.

I should 'cap Thursday and leave today's board alone, for the most part.

 

[DoMyDermBest]

nice breakout yesterday. good luck!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thank-you, sir

hopin' to keep on chooglin'

:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.

PLAYS

brewers +112 1/1.12
Reds -120 0.6/0.5 (Harang v. Billingsley)
Tigers -130 1/0.77
Orioles +100 1/1
indians -139 2.08/1.5

mil@Col un9.5 -119 0.59/0.5
atl@Mets un8 -102 0.51/0.5
cubs@Hou un7.5 -120 0.6/0.5
wash@Sf un8 -120 1.2/1
bost@Laa ov9.5 -112 1.12/1

2-teamer
--nyy@Tor un9
--twins ml
+152
0.6/0.91

2-teamer
--twins ml
--indians ml
+153
0.65/1

9-team IF bet
1.Reds -1.5 0.5/0.85
2.Royals under3.5 0.72/0.5
3.red sox over4.5 0.7/0.5
4.indians 0.7/0.5
5.brewers 0.77/0.8
6.cubs@Hou un7.5 0.96/0.8
7.atl@Mets un8 0.8/0.7
8.Tigers 1.35/1
9.Blue Jays 1/1.01
0.5 to win max.6.66 (that was a fluke, I swear)


Got a bunch of house money to play with so I'm making a couple of plays that I think might not be in my best interest, e.g. the totals in Colorado, New York and Houston; I'll be thrilled with a 2 of 3 on those ones. Indians look best, to me, and I figure that the Twins should certainly win today so I'll try to increase the payout a bit with the 2 parlays?Jays game under is another that I think might be a mistake?system actually has over-calls on the Rogers Centre and Coors games, but I think that Wang and Halladay may be able to chill things out a little, with the help of '07 high K% Cousins calling the pitches, while Gallardo and Francis have both done superb jobs during day games, so maybe Coors will stop it on the overs, already. The O's and Brewers sides I'm not as crazy about as when I made the plays?I'd be happy with one of those two. Couldn't resist risking a unit on the Tigers at the current price as Shields seems to have lost his form from earlier in the season; the last time that Durbin started he was quite good, though the D'Rays production during this series has me a little concerned there, too. I'm not overly confident about stretching this streak out to 6 days, but I HAVE been pretty much bang-on for my assessments the past week or so.

Lookin' at Thursday: Braves Hudson is a fair bit hotter than Smoltz right now, while Maine is a little colder than Hernandez; I might try the Braves, there, if the line is similar to today's?I haven't gone against Maine much (if at all) this season, but this looks like a good spot to do so; if they give us a total of 8, again, then I won't hesitate to put some coin on the under (ump Meals is a decent under-ump). I'll have the Reds favoured over the struggling Dodgers, again, this time with lefty Dumatrait, who still has to prove that he can make it in the Majors but who faces Tomko who really isn't cutting it as a starter this season; this game will totally be a system over, even at an 11 (ump Emmel is even). The Nats-Giants game appears impossible to call as we'll have two young, potentially decent, starters going in Hanrahan and Misch; I really like what I saw from Misch in his last?the first start of his career?it was against the Padres, at pitcher-friendly Petco, but he issued no walks while striking out 8 over 5 IP?his stuff looked pretty wicked, from what I saw; Hanrahan, too, has looked good over his 1st 2 games, with the Nats getting the W's over the Mets and the Cards; this game will be a system under at an 8 but we should see a total higher than that (making it a HIGHER system call) (Diaz is a decent under-ump). Mitre-Kendrick favours the Philles as Mitre has been horrible for weeks while Kendrick is fighting to keep his spot in the rotation and his 4-0 record at home (in 6, era 3.29) is going a long way in doing just that; Phillies up to -150 and I might bite?I'll like it better if the Phillies do a number on Willis today. Padres' Young will be back on Thursday and faces Pineiro who couldn't cut it in the Bosox bullpen and looked pretty bad in his first start for the Cards; as I suggested earlier, pitcher's just coming off of injuries are turning me off, but my call will be for the Padres regardless of what happens tonight; I need a line under -135 if I'm going to consider trying Young here. One game that I'm anxious to hop on will be the Rockies in their closer with the Cubs; Lilly has been dynamite lately and he's 7-1 over his past 8 starts; the good news out of all that, for any Rockies players, is that he will no doubt command some juice, making the Rockies a very likely dog for Thursday; Jimenez was pretty shaky in his last, at Atlanta (what pitcher's aren't suffering at the hands of the Braves, these days?), and he' walking a few too many for my liking, but he does have great stuff and I think that I'm going to support him for his next few goes while he's still very affordable; Cubs will have to travel in from Houston while the Rockies stay put, which doesn't hurt the Rockies; I'm expecting even money or better on this one; the game will actually be a system pick at -110 as long as either the Rockies win or the Cubs lose?if neither of those happens then it will only be a system pick at +110 or higher. D'Backs (Davis-Snell) will have a call near 60%, but the probable line of -140 to -150 will negate any value.

Four games in the AL: Kazmir-Bonderman should be an interesting one as Scott is on fire lately while Bonderman has done outstanding work vs the D'Rays in the past but has been pretty awful lately; I think that I need +140 or better to give the Rays a shot, which we probably won't see; D'Rays continue to produce at Comerica and I might try them lower; game will be a system under if at least 8.5?we might see a 9 (ump Reilly is even). Twins (Garza-Davies) will have a lower call than today, but not by that much; Davies is a bit better, I think, than he was for the Braves this year, and certainly better than he was in his first start for the Royals, but I still don't think that he's got the stuff that Garza has so this is another one that I'm anxiously waiting to hop on; Twins should be favoured but I can't see it being any more than -130ish?I'd likely try it even up to -140 as long as the Twins show that they can score some runs tonight; this game will be a system pick at up to -125 as long as the Twins win?without too much difficulty?tonight. Both the M's Ramirez and the O's Cabrera have good career numbers vs opponent, but Ramirez has been pretty bad this season while 2 of Cabrera's last 3 have been brilliant, with a poor game against the Yankees stuck in between; result will be a call in the mid-50's for the O's, but this one could very go either way and the line will probably negate any value. White Sox (Buehrle-Laffay) will get the call by my numbers but the Chisox are likely going to be -115 to -130 meaning no value there either; Laffey was great at Triple-A Buffalo but I wasn't that impressed by why he did in his first big-league start, at the slumping Twins; too early to say what he's really got, but the Indians 7-day OPS is below .700 (around 150 points lower than their season total) while the Chisox 7-day OPS is over .800 (close to 100 points higher than their season total)?this ain't stopping me today?Indians are my biggest play for Wednesday.

Hoping to survive today without too much damage.
GL

 

[rubiconed]

Thanks for all the info !!! GL today !!!

 

[bohawk]

"You`ve been the "Man with the "Plan"! Good pickin!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot, guys

I'm lookin' pretty shaky for today.

Already bustin' some moves for tomorrow, so hoping to rebound then (relax, Mike...it's EARLY!

Go Go Gadget
MOJO FILTER!

:00hour :00hour :00hour