Wednesday July 25th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday July 25th 2007

yesterday: 12-3 +10.34
July: 110-108 +13.56
ml 63-45 +15.8
rl 6-5 +4.87
totals 25-30 -6.93
parlays 16-28 -0.18
system picks 2-1 yesterday; 32-17 in July (65%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-2 yesterday; 34-35 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Col 57% (-130)even
Phil 72 (-239)+1 RL 58 (-113)+4
Cin 54 (-102)+3
Mets 61 (-150)+1
lad 60 (-131)+3
Stl 53 (-106)+1
Ariz 62 (-165)-1
atl 60 (-105)+8
Tor 56 (-115)+2
Laa 62 (-162)even
bost 53 (-103)+2
Balt 66 (-179)+1 RL 50 (+114)+3
nyy 58 (-138)even
det 64 (-123)+8
seat 51 (+102)+1

system totals

mil@Cin ov10 68% (+115)+21 --ump Bell a slight under-ump (always high K%)
pitt@Mets un8 67 (+101)+17 --ump Randazzo is even (fairly low K%, though)
atl@Sf un8.5 70 (+104)+20 --ump Winters is even
min@Tor ov9 70 (-117)+16 --ump Tschida is even (slight OVER-lean this season)
oak@Laa un8.5 66 (-129)+9 --ump Cooper is even


Hendrix bless Edgar Renteria.

Helps when you catch some breaks, as I did Tuesday; Padres Young only works 2 innings before leaving (strained oblique, I heard) but I still bagged the Padres, the under, and the Rocks under. I've had to edit this, twice now, because of loser Wickman?jeez, do the Braves ever need a decent closer; helps when you catch breaks but hurts when your closer blows a 4-run lead in the 9th?then caught a HUGE break as the Braves pulled it out. Means I at least hit one of the system picks that I played (Yanks were a pick, too). Went 7-1 on my sides, and 4-2 on my totals. Also bagged a parlay. I shouldn't bitch about losing with the D'Rays (as a system pick) but I really thought that they were in a great position to win yesterday?their offense simply didn't show up. Oh well?feel like I got away with murder yesterday. Any time I clear 10 units I'm a VERY happy camper. Thrilled with my current 2-day winning streak and feeling fairly confident about stretching it out?

Braves and Tigers are system picks today. No other sides really stand out though I'm considering a parlay with the Phillies and Orioles. Totals hurt some by the umps in Cinci and New York, so I'll likely leave those alone, and the total at San Fran comes into question a bit with both bullpens being taxed on Tuesday. That leaves me just the over in Toronto, which I'm considering, and the under in Anaheim, which I'm not crazy about.

Will post plays by sunrise.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(braves,tigers)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

braves 60% (-105)+8

briefly:
--Braves James a little hotter than Lowry right now
--Braves a clear BP edge (just keep Wickman AWAY!!!)
--Braves a decent edge at the plate (OPS vs L .742 while Giants OPS vs L .701 (ASB))

-105 is 95.2 cents on the dollar
60 x 0.952 = 57.12
40 x -1......= -40
---------------------------------
.....................17.12%


A touch higher than I expected.
Should be a close game, with 2 decent lefties going, but the Braves edge at the dish should help them pull it out. A 4-game sweep is unlikely, I think, as the Giants chuck the smokin' Lincecum on Thursday against Buddy Carlyle.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Tigers 64% (-123)+8

--line is up to -135 now, but I booked my ticket at -123 so I'm using that here; at -135 the value indicator is down to +6 so not quite a system pick at that number; maybe I'll do both...just takes a minute

briefly:
--Tigers, despite Rogers struggles the last couple, have a big edge at SP as Contreras is about as bad as it gets currently
--Tigers a huge edge at the plate (OPS vs R .812 while Chisox OPS vs L is .703 (ASB))
--that 64% is a very conservative call; I dropped it several points due to them getting swept Tuesday

-123 is 81.3 cents otd
64 x 0.813 = 52.032
36 x -1......= -36
--------------------------------
....................16.032%


Looks equivalent to the Braves play, as there is a slightly lower ROI here with a greater probability.

at -135...

-135 is 74 cents otd
64 x 0.74 = 47.36
36 x -1.....= -36
--------------------------------
..................11.36%


Quite a drop-off from the earlier line.
Contreras is an absolute fade, at the moment, making this play very attractive.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

still haven't pulled the trigger on the parlay I mentioned; methinks that an analysis might show the play to be kinda sketchy...

ROI of possible parlay
-------------------------------

Phillies 72% (-228)
Orioles 66% (-179)
-------------------------------
2-teamer 48% (+124)+3...Wow!

48 x 1.24 = 59.52
52 x -1.....= -52
-------------------------------
..................7.52%


Hardly seems worth it, with the low probability and all. I'm still a sucker for these plays as I spent years playing Sports Select (available here in Canada) before getting wise and opening an offshore account; with Sports Select you have no choice but to play parlays. Hitting one yesterday almost gets my parlay total even for the month, so I don't know if I should f@# around with them or not.

Bedard seems like a safe bet for Wednesday.
Phillies game is a major mismatch.
Might be worth a small play.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)


nats un4 -150 (-12)

Phil ov5.5 +105 (+7)

Reds ov5 +120 (+8)

pitt un4 -150 (-12)

lad ov5 +100 (+6)

cubs un4.5 -125 (-7)

Stl un4.5 -125 (-7)

SF un4 -105 (-14)

a's un4 -160 (-13)a bit steep for them currently

tb un4 -160 (-9)O's runline might be better here

nyy ov5.5 -110 (+7)lowest team total the Yanks have seen for several days; Meche was solid in his last but struggled for several starts prior; ump Cousins, scheduled, is a slight over-lean, especially so far this year, so both this team total AND the game total might book overs

tigers ov5 -125 (+13)this looks about as safe as they come; moneyline looks equivalent

m's ov5.5 +115 (+5)could the M's score 6 and still lose?...possible at Ameriquest; McCarthy has been pounded by the M's before in 1 start and a pair of relief appearances; Tim Welke is umping, I believe, and he's a bit of an under-lean, so if you like the M's then the moneyline might be a better option...M's Batista has been pretty strong over his past 2 starts


Those are all I would consider.
Tigers, Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies over all look promising.
Nats and Cubs under a little less so.
Phillies runline looks way better than the Nats under.
Cards moneyline may survive, too, with a fairly hot Wainwright going, but at least in St. Louis there's a bit of an under-ump going in gimme-a-burger-Meals. Cubs O is erratic, as are many offenses in the bigs, right now. I sort of like the Cards Wednesday, but it's risky as the Cards do horrible work against lefties (OPS under .700). System says 60% under the 8.5 for that one, without a small bonus for Meals, which it should get.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit.

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit.

PLAYS

system picks

braves -105 1.05/1
tigers -123 2.46/2

other picks

Rockies -128 0.64/0.5
Phillies -1.5 -108 0.77/0.73
dodgers -131 1/0.76
Cards -106 0.77/0.73
Jays -110 0.78/0.72
bosox -103 0.76/0.74
Orioles -1.5 +114 0.8/0.91
yanks -1.5 +113 0.7/0.8

totals

cubs@Stl un8.5 -103 0.61/0.6
atl@Sf un8.5 +104 0.5/0.52
bost@Clev un9 -114 0.68/0.6
nyy@Kc ov10 -110 0.55/0.5

2-teamer
--Phillies ml
--Orioles ml
+124
0.67/0.83

2-teamer
--D'Backs ml
--Orioles ml
+150
0.6/0.9

2-teamer
--Jays over 4.5
--nyy over 5.5
+232
0.43/1

2-teamer
--Twins@Jays ov9
--yankees ml
+210
0.47/1

8-team IF bet
1.D'Backs -1.5 0.5/0.63
2.Jays -1.5 0.5/0.8
3.bosox 0.55/0.5
4.braves 0.57/0.5
5.Cards 0.66/0.6
6.nyy -1.5 0.8/0.88
7.Phillies -1.5 0.8/0.7
8.dodgers 1.37/1
0.5 to win max.5.61

8-team IF bet
1.dodgers over 5 0.5/0.5
2.Orioles -1.5 0.5/0.53
3.Rockies -1.5 0.5/0.78
4.tigers 0.67/0.5
5.nyy -1.5 0.7/0.77
6.Jays 0.9/0.75
7.Phillies -1.5 0.8/0.7
8.cubs@Stl un8.5 0.84/0.8
0.5 to win max.5.33


That 7-1 on my sides, yesterday, has me thinking that I can nail the majority of these sides today; got action on 11 of the 15 games, though nothing too heavily. Yankees runline at better than even money seems to good to pass on right now and Meche, despite the Royals winning his past 5 starts, could very well get lit up here. Royals will do their darndest to keep up with the Yanks against a struggling Mussina here and so, with an appropriate ump in Cousins going, I think that the total of 10 could very well be busted. System call is 60% under the 8.5 at Busch, but umpire Meals is a decent under-ump so I'm giving that one a go. 20 kicks at the cat today; probably a bit too overconfident after yesterday's book burning; a repeat would be sweet.

Looking for a rare?for July?three day winning streak.

GL

 

[el JB]

SOLID

SOLID

best of luck and will surely tail Tigers, Hotlanta, the OVER in yanks and the UNDER in Cubbies and may parlay a couple... 3k bets in all...tnx and keep posting

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Jeez...it's noon...I should get some sleep if I want to be up in time for the games.

Had to 'cap Thursday, first.
Here's the early report:

Highest probabilities should be on the Mets (Perez-Maholm) and the Tigers (Verlander-Danks); I might consider the Mets as high as -180 tomorrow, as this one is a heavy mismatch (Maholm has good numbers against the Mets, from 3 starts last season, but Perez is by far the better starter and Mets OPS vs lefties is about 50 points higher than Pirates OPS vs lefties); line will undoubtedly be higher than today's -150 (no Gorzelanny, after all) but if the Mets can hit the lefty they face today then I'll be drooling to get a piece of their action for Thursday. Tigers lines at U.S. Cellular have been reasonable, but we may see the most expensive one tomorrow; up to -150 and I'll try for multiple units; higher than that and I'll (likely) be a buyer only if the Tigers bag the victory tonight.

The only other side that really stands out is the closer at Jacob's Field; Gabbard is looking like he's going to make a beautiful addition to the Bosox pitching staff while Lee has been pummelled for 3 straight games now (era of 10.69 over those past 3); even if Big Papi is still out I think that the Bosox will outscore the Indians tomorrow; both clubs with OPS over .800 vs lefties, but Bosox with the clear edge at SP and in the bullpen for this game; Bosox lines have been reasonable in their current series, too, (witness the Beckett line today) so I'd be surprised if we have to pay more than -120 for this one; at that line it would be a system pick even if the Bosox lose tonight; hard to say how much respect Gabbard will get from the linesmakers--or how much disrespect Lee will get for his current struggles--so we may see a line at closer to even money than that; this is one to watch out for.

All the other side calls are in the 50's, but the Giants, with a decent line, will be in play for me; Lincecum looks phenomenal--probably a little better than Gallardo--and he should give the Giants their best shot in this series (though they have a shot tonight, certainly, with Lowry going); Braves Buddy Carlyle probably doesn't get much respect from the linesmakers, so we probably see the Giants favoured for the first time in this series; up to -130 and I'll bite, even though the value indicator will be negligable at such a line (looking at SF 57 or 58%, barring something unusual happening tonight).

At Busch, Looper was just pounded in his last while the Cubs' Marquis is 3-0 career vs the Cards with a 2.08 era--that includes a victory for his 7 shutout innings vs the Cards earlier this year. Cubs manage to get to Wainwright and Co. tonight, for 4-6 (chit, I hope not), and I'll likely back them tomorrow, as long as the line is within shouting distance of even money.

Dodgers and Penny will likely see a line too big for my liking, especially as Lopez has chucked 2 good games vs the Dodgers already this season. At +150 or better the Rockies will be tempting as they'll stay put, at home, getting the evening off to boot, while the Dodgers will have to travel after playing a late one in Houston. I don't know if I'll have the balls to go up against Penny, but it looks like a good spot for it; a Dodgers loss (again...I hope not) and a Rockies win, along with a fantastic line, and I might bite. Dodgers are in the -140 range today, with Lowe vs Albers, so I would imagine that it will be higher tomorrow.

In the A.L., I might have my first Jackson game 'capped with the D'Rays favoured; guy sucks but tosses the occassional beauty, like his last vs the Yankees; Trachsel was just mutilated in his first off the DL, and was pretty crappy just before going on the DL, so the D'Rays have little excuse for not banging in a good 5 or 6 runs at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. D'Rays blanked on Tuesday, in a rare good game by Cabrera, but D'Rays OPS last 7 days is still over .800; O's, after a mid-July offensive surge, have totally dropped off the map at the plate (OPS under .700 past 7 days). I need dog money here, for sure, if I'm going to risk on Jackson; at +120 this one might even be a system pick if the D'Rays win on Wednesday (which is a longshot); even with a D'Rays (expected) loss tonight, there will be some value on the Rays as dogs. I almost forgot to mention...Trachsel is a career 0-3 (in 3) vs the D'Rays with a 6.48 era, including getting pounded earlier this season at Tropicana Field.

Royals will have their best shot, vs the Yankees, in the closer (Igawa-De La Rosa). Both starters have been lousy, lately, so the over may be the smarter place to put money for that one.

Speaking of totals, unders seem likely in New York, San Fran, and Seattle (Haren-Weaver), while overs are probable in Cinci (Bush-Livingston), Houston (Wells-Rodriguez), Arizona (Kim-Owings), Baltimore, Cleveland, and K.C.


That took a while.
Could have waited until tomorrow but it helps me to sort out some thoughts regarding these games, and my likely approach to them.

Will have Thursday's numbers up by midnight or so.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

still no sleep...won't be much if I get any

Jays bottom of the 6th--11 runs and still batting--should make good on my moneyline, my total (parlayed), my team total (parlayed), and my runline (on an IF).
Only one game but it's a perfect-looking start.
System 1-0 on totals so far today.


They're just opening Thursday's lines.
Mets -184 interests me.
...hmm...
just checked; it will be Bill Welke ump'ing at Cinci, so I'm passing on that OVER (he's a heavy under-lean)
Giants with Lincecum, at -124, is about what I expected. Worth a shot, I believe.
Astros at -114 with Wandy, who's era at home is under 2, looks kinda nice, especially considering that the Astros do their best work vs lefties.
Cubs at -113 looks like a bargain.
Dodgers only -122, with Penny...that's (real) cheap...I may switch my thinking for this one...get it early if you want it 'cause it's only movin' one direction.
Guccione, for the D'Backs game, is a fine ump for overs, and that 10 for Kim-Owings seems likely to topple. Over at -105.
D'Rays are +136 with Jackson. This is probably one to NOT get early...if at all.
Tigers open at -159. Rock n' Roll.
Bosox at -107...hard to say which way this line moves...early action might do something but later action could reverse it; either way I think it's a steal; Lee has been extremely hittable lately and the Bosox are no slouches at the plate; this is a system pick unless the Bosox leave town tonight.
LOL...Royals-Yanks total at 11.5. Ump Danley is even.

Thursday has potential.

 

[Craiger]

Damn nice write ups as usual Extrapolater!! Your my morning paper.. Extrap Extrap! read all about it !! heh
:142smilie
With you on Hotlanta play as is all I had time to get in tonight and as usual I posted the 1st 5's which looked good to me. Keep on keepin' on with the writeups, is extremely appreciated with all the time you put into it,..the analysis, the gutchecks, etc. best read IMO ~ :00x32

GL tonight !!

 

[bohawk]

Extrapolator-Man: Kudos to your logic & reasoning:
Don`t know if will have a $$ outcome ? But I
like the way you go about it. ps. played that Jay O.
:00hour :00hour