Wednesday June 13th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday June 13th 2007

yesterday: 9-7 +8.03
June: 85-80 -3.65
ml 37-29 -7.21
rl 4-6 -7.07
totals 36-24 +16.95
parlays 8-21 -6.32
system picks 2-4 yesterday; now 99-58 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-0 yesterday; 31-14 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Lad 55% (-130)-2
cws 51 (+107)+2
Sf 59 (-145)-1
Pitt 64 (-162)+2
Fla 56 (+112)+8
Nyy 59 (-223)-11 ariz 41 (+205)+8
Balt 62 (-160)even
Bost 75 (-235)+4 RL 62 (-115)+8
Det 51 (-120)-4
laa 54 (-150)-6 Cin 46 (+147)+5
sd 67 (-191)+1 RL 53 (-117)-1
stl 55 (-106)+3
oak 53 (+105)+4
Cubs 58 (-140)-1
atl 56 (+107)+7

system totals

mets@Lad un7.5 77% (-109)+24 --ump Darling is even
tor@Sf un8.5 69 (-135)+11 --ump Barksdale is even (9-4 OVERS this year)
clev@Fla ov9.5 75 (-111)+22 --ump Knight is even


I got lucky on parlays yesterday. System picks still aren't rocking for Interleague. At least it hit the big numbers, this time, with Philly, Tigers, Bosox, and Astros. Woulda liked at least one of my late games (Mets and Jays) to clear a full 10 units. Didn't happen. I'm grateful for the Astros slim victory, regardless. Bottom line?I needed some kinda plus yesterday; it happened.
System totals now 6-0 the past 3 days. 2-1 above is likely.

I really don't like today's board. Loved yesterday's, but today is slim pickens.
Whatever I play will be small. Will post once performed.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Mention this to me. Watch the weather change.

Mention this to me. Watch the weather change.

PLAYS

Bosox -1.5 -115 1/0.87
padres -1.5 -117 1/0.85

2-teamer
--Bosox ml
--padres ml
+117
2/2.34


This is all I like for today; I think these 2 should come through.
Can't bitch with how system totals are performing, but I don't like today's as Mets are due to score some runs & Lad might get to the surprising Sosa. Jays always a threat to score and I prefer Marcum, to McGowan, as far as Jays starters go. The over call was the most tempting (Clev@Fla), but I don't like the fact that the Indians let the relatively soft Olsen shut them down for 7 innings; Marlins should get more off of Lee than they did off of Carmona yesterday, but this one is tough to call. I'm not on the Marlins as I can't back Kim. I'm passing on the Braves as Twins now have Mauer back while Braves still without Chipper.

Tomorrow's high number is again the Bosox; they will be listed at 70% if Bosox win tonight.
Rockies chucking Francis, but Beckett is the play, especially considering his past work versus Rockies. Huge edge to Bosox bats in this one (Bosox OPS vs L .846; Rockies OPS vs R .730).

That's it from here. I need a perfect 3-0 to get rid of that minus for June.
Not asking for too much, here, to pull it off.

Let's do this thing!
GL

:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

why sleep when there's continuatiion of the plenty...

why sleep when there's continuatiion of the plenty...

return on investment breakdown for (dumb?) parlay I made
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosox 75%
padres 67%
---------------------
50% chance to hit the parlay

50% (+117)+4 Value Indicator

ROI
-------
50 x 1.17 = 58.5
50 x -1.....= -50
---------------------------
.................8.5%

That's not so hot.

I think the Padres number (67%) is a bit low, anyway.
About as big a starting mismatch as could be conceived.
It's a bigger mismatch than the Peavy-Chico game (Nats) a few starts back, when Peavy got a no-decision in a 10-inning loss.
If only the Padres could hit.

I dunno...Jackson looked pretty good facing the Blue Jays, in a couple of recent outtings, but he's been POUNDED by everyone else (Jays can't hit righties this season, for some reason).
D'Rays big number (11) yesterday may scare away some money, but I see something like a 5or6 to 2or3 kind of score.

Almost grabbed D'Rays under 3.5 at -125, but decided the runline was smarter, again considering that the D'Rays scored 11 Tuesday.

In the other game, Bosox bats should be more lively, today, and Schilling shouldn't have too much trouble duplicating Wakefield's strong performance against 2007's fairly weak-hitting Rockies (OPS vs R .730).
Bosox OPS vs R .792. That goes WAY UP at home (just not yesterday).
Rockies # may be up a bit for this one, too, playing and Fenway AND getting to use a DH, but they play half their games at very-hitter-friendly Coors Field, so they have no excuse for such poor production this campaign.
I see a score of 6 to 2or3 happening here.
Could be identical scores.

I like both. Wish they were affordable on the moneyline.

That wore me out.:com:

:weed:
:SIB