Wednesday June 6th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday June 6th 2007

yesterday: 7-8 -5.19
June: 36-28 -1.06
ml 15-9 -2.19
rl 2-2 -2.2
totals 16-10 +5.49
parlays 3-7 -2.16
system picks now 88-48 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-2-2 yesterday; 14-8 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Atl 51% (-119)-4
Mil 56 (-114)+2
Wash 52 (-105)even
Mets 54 (-162)-8 phil 46 (+154)+6
Stl 54 (-110)+1
Col 65 (-148)+5 RL 51 (+135)+8
Ariz 63 (-155)+2
Sd 57 (-108)+5
Laa 64 (-170)+1
Seat 56 (-134)-2
Clev 68 (-212)even RL 54 (-104)+3
Tor 51 (-109)-2
nyy 51 (-137)-7 Cws 49 (+129)+5
det 65 (-140)+6 RL 50 (+112)+2
bost 52 (-110)-1

system totals

phil@Mets un9 73% (-115)+19 --Miller is a decent under-ump
lad@Sd un7.5 72 (-115)+18 --Kellogg a slight over-ump (including 9-3 this year)
balt@Seat un9 69 (-115)+15 --ump Hernandez is even
bost@Oak un9 73 (-120)+18 --ump Iassogna is even


Yesterday sucked, but I thought I was looking at a 10-unit loss and things ended well, cutting that in half. I'll take it. Gonna have bad days sometimes. 3-2 on totals to pick up a unit. 1-2 on the moneyline. Same on the runline. 2-2 on parlays.

Today should be lighter. A few I'm definately on, but going to try and limit opportunities to LOSE today. Rockies and Tigers are system picks. One under killed by the umpire, in San Diego. Other totals I'm considering.

System sides 6-9 yesterday (P.CH. in Texas). Looking for major improvement today.

See you in a bit.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Well...I'm on the Rockies and Tigers moneylines, for starters.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At Shea....

The number (Mets 54%) is greatly distorted (i.e. LOW) due to starting pitcher's numbers vs opponent's, here.

Eaton vs Mets:
4-0, 1.65 era in 4 starts
(27.1 IP, 0 HR, 0.91 whip, .183 baa)
Eaton at Shea:
3-0, 1.69 era in 3 starts
He got the W, at Shea, in a 5-2 win April 11th, pitching 7 solid.
You get the picture.

Hernandez vs Phillies:
0-1, 11.08 era in 3 starts (all 3 last season).
He HAS been brilliant for 4 straight, however, and only a few of the Phillies regulars have hit him well (Howard and Victorino...Rollins and Utley so-so).

Phillies OPS vs R .799
Mets OPS vs R .738

Those numbers are another factor in the low %.

Personally, I don't care much for Adam Eaton; kinda think he's fade material.

I just can't play the Mets, at this price, because of the preceeding information.
Can't go against Orlando, right now, the way he's chuckin'.

Under is worth a shot.
It's a system call (under 9 at 73%), there's a reasonably decent ump in for the play (Bill Miller), the line isn't too bad (-108), and we've got a Mets team that suddenly can't score much, especially in their last few at Shea (a pitcher's park...9 is a high total here).

Gonna try it, myself, and hope that Eaton is sharp.

:SIB

P.S. If you're wondering just how much I let these pitcher vs opponent numbers skew my 'cap, here, then I can tell you in one sec...
It looks like I get Mets 60% if I don't adjust (both) starter's for record vs.
Still (fairly) low due to Phillies edge vs righthanders.
At 60% I still don't touch a -162 line.

:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

a few more tempting totals:

hou@Col over 10 60% (+101)+10 --Bucknor, a good over-ump, is going here
sf@Ariz under 7.5 54 (-102)+3 --ump Reed is even (6-4 unders this year w/hi K%)
min@Laa under 8 62 (-135)+4 --ump Everitt is even (6-3 UNDERS this year)
kc@Clev over 10 59 (+107)+10 --ump slight under-ump (Wolf)
tb@Tor over 9 58 (-105)+6 --Cousins a slight over-ump
nyy@Cws under 10 58 (-125)+2 --Poncino historically a bit of an over-ump (always low K%), but 7-3 UNDERS this year with a high K%

Just some I'm considering.

:SIB

...thought about this one a little more
(sf@Ariz u7.5)
I think that playing under 7.5s at Chase Field will be costly in the long run.
Was lucky to get the under 8 yesterday (4-3).
I don't care how well Morris and Webb are throwing right now.
This isn't Petco.
And the bullpens aren't that great, here.

Passola Crayola

More tempted by the D'Backs moneyline.
It's just slightly higher than I'll go.
At -140 I'd be hoppy.

Bonds apparently Q with his "shin".

Makes both under (passola crayola) and D'Backs (I'm still tempted) more palatable.

Morris beat Webb (in SF) last September (4-2 final).

I dunno...
:shrug:
:com:
:scared
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Standing on a hill in a mountain of dreams, telling myself it's not as hard as it see

Standing on a hill in a mountain of dreams, telling myself it's not as hard as it see

PLAYS

system picks

Rockies -148 2.96/2
tigers -140 2.8/2

other picks

Padres -108 0.75/0.7

totals

phil@Mets un9 -108 1.62/1.5
min@Laa un8 -135 1.5/1.11
balt@Seat un9 -115 0.57/0.5
bost@Oak un9 -117 0.81/0.7

2-teamer
--D'Backs ml
--Indians ml
+140
0.71/1

2-teamer
--Angels ml
--Indians ml
+129
0.77/1


This is probably it for today. I'm in the middle of 'capping tomorrow's games; one that I'm dying to see the line for (and will grab at -180 or better).
As for today?decided not to play anything too heavy.
Here's hoping I don't embarrass myself (and my wallet) two days in a row.

See you tomorrow (today).

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I think I'm finally done messing around with numbers. Tomorrow's...Today's...

I just noticed that of 15 games today,
7 are 'capped at 54% or less.

That's a lot of close ones.

System could take a beating, again, today.
(I'll be curious to how it does on those low ones)

I'll be happy if the five 60's hit.
To heck with the rest.

--------------------------------------------------------------

I've done tomorrow's games.
Looks very promising,
for both some sides and some totals.

I anxiously await the opening bell.

:SIB