Wednesday May 23rd

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday May 23rd 2007

yesterday: 7-6 +0.38
May: 130-96 +32.15
ml 72-38 +19.57
rl 8-10 -2.09
totals 33-29 +2.79
parlays 17-19 +11.88
system sides now 65-37 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

phil 58% (-119)+3
Cin 65 (-165)+2 RL 50 (+124)+5
mets 63 (-104)+12
pitt 52 (-104)+1
Ariz 55 (-112)+2
Sd 59 (-127)+3
Lad 60 (-127)+4
Sf 61 (-155)even
Tex 54 (-117)even
laa 55 (-108)+3
Nyy 52 (-123)-4
Balt 56 (-130)-1
seat 59 (-103)+8
clev 60 (-165)-3
Cws 61 (-134)+3

system totals

pitt@Stl un8.5 65% (-115)+11 --ump Kulpa is even
col@Ariz un9 66 (-120)+11 --ump Cousins is a slight over-ump
laa@Det un9 74 (-115)+20 --ump Reilly is even


Mixed results yesterday; Phillies, Indians, and D'Rays all blew multiple-run leads to cost me 3 separate plays; 3-4 on the moneyline and a lousy 0-2 on parlays. Went 4-0 on totals to save me a minus. Got a nice Ducks win, to end that series, so I made some money for the second straight day.

Today's board is nothing special. I actually dropped that Mets number a couple of % after their loss yesterday; I think they get the win, here, as they've got the edge at starter, bullpen, and at the plate (Mets OPS vs lefties .882 while Braves at .787).

A few other things that I think will happen includes wins by the Dodgers,Giants and White Sox, all at home, but there isn't too much value on the current lines; Brewers will challenge with Capuano going, and Astros bats pretty potent vs lefties (.781 OPS), not to mention the stinkers that Zito has had lately; Penny's last start was also a stinker, throwing up some caution flags there. Chisox may be the best of the 3, as they're on quite a little streak, right now (Garland against Gaudin is promising, too).

Totals don't look so hot, either, today. A couple of system recommendations, but the Arizona game is eliminated by the umpire. Hard to play a Kip Wells game under these days, too; mind you, he has a chance for a surprise good game against the weak-hitting Pirates (.668 OPS vs righties); Snell has been fairly normal, since his great start. The total in Detroit is also iffy; Colon has been consistently solid but Durbin has been mediocre.

I got the Senators to win the Cup, for anyone interested.

Be back later to post my plays.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

An under-ump in Tschida, going in SF.
Otherwise I might try the over 8.5.
Both Zito and Albers past 2 have been stinkers.
Astros can hit lefties, too.
Ump kills the play.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Think I'll buy me a football team

Think I'll buy me a football team

PLAYS

system sides

mets -102 4.08/4

other sides

Dodgers -127 1.27/1
angels -105 0.73/0.7
mariners -105 0.84/0.8
Chisox -126 2.52/2

No totals today.
--umps kill a few and I don't like the system recommendations

2-teamer
--Reds ml
--Giants ml
+168
0.59/1

2-teamer
--Giants ml
--indians ml
+166
0.6/1


Lost both parlays yesterday, so I'd like at least one today; parlays cost me come money in April, but I'm hoping to keep my head above water for May.

Obviously the one I really need is the Mets; thought about making them my only play. Can't pass on the Chisox, at least, the way they're going. Mariners are smoking lefties (OPS .790) and should be able to hit Fossum here (era 7.80); Batista may be his usual sucky self, mind you, giving the D'Rays a shot, but they've put up a string of 8 consecutive zeros to start this one, which is what makes me back off the over (Darling is a decent over-ump, or at least is this year and was about 4-5 years ago).

Angels is probably pushing my luck; a win gives me an Angels series play, anyway, so I don't know why the risk here; still, Tigers not the best at home, and Durbin is nothing special.

That's the scoop.
Hoping to make it 3 winning days in a row after a short dry spell; would like to finish May strong as I'm close to the point of being able to make a substantial withdrawel.

Hope it works out for you, too.
GL

 

[Lucas10101]

I hope it works out for you as well.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

keep your hands off of my stash

keep your hands off of my stash

thanks lucas you're a swell guy

-------------------------------------------------------------

added:

4-teamer
--mets ml
--Dodgers ml
--Giants ml
--Chisox ml
+880
0.5/4.4


I think those are the best plays on the board.
Hopefully Capuano stays cold.

Enjoy.

:SIB

 

[GFan9991]

Extrapolater,
It seems like your system has been doing a good job of predicting winners. I have been looking at your numbers before finalizing my plays recently. I really like the Mets and Dodgers here tonight. I am going to lay off the white sox though as I have been burned by inconsistent Garland before and i respect Gaudin's stuff. I am also leaning towards the Orioles with Trachsel, who has been unspectacular but consistently solid all year with quality starts, and also the Yankees with Pettitte. I know he has struggled against the Sox this year, but Schilling has not impressed me, and I just think the Yanks win this big game tonight to prove that the media is too early in proclaiming them down for the count.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks for the words, GFan.

Nice work laying off those dang Chisox; I really thought they'd score SOMETHING tonight.

Oh well...I should be able to pull off a small plus because of the Mets win.

I've got one 65% for tomorrow (Tigers); the rest are all in the 50's...some tough calls tomorrow.

Be back to post the numbers once today's results are finalized.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

P.S.

The way the Royals hit Lee tonight...do you think they're going to have any trouble with the badly slumping Sowers?

I would think not.

Royals with De La Rosa at +120 is begging for my money.

I've got the Royals at 55% for tomorrow; not a huge edge but enough to warrant a play, at +120.

Royals 55% (+120)+9

Return on Investment
-------------------------------
55 x 1.2 = 66
45 x -1 = -45
..............-------------
.............. 21
..............----------..........= 21% R.O.I.
.............. 100 plays

Anything over 20% is sweet.

Won't be a heavy play for me because 55% is nothing special; Indians have the edge with the sticks, too.

I wonder which way this line will move.
Might be better to wait for Indians action, if it's gonna come.

I'm waiting 'til games close, tonight, at least.

See you in a bit.

:SIB