Wednesday May 9th ... under-day

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday May 9th 2007

yesterday: 1-0 +1.0
May: 43-28 +16.93
ml 23-6 +14.77 (this is 79.3% winners?if only this were standard)
rl 5-4 +1.54
totals 9-11 -2.19
parlays 6-7 +2.81
system sides now 46-25 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mil 73% (-225)+3 RL 60 (-110)+7
Stl 57 (-135)-1
mets 66 (-145)+6 RL 51 (+110)+3
phil 52 (-110)-1 (Yes, I know about Howard)
Fla 63 (-125)+7
Cin 54 (-125)-2
Atl 62 (-150)+2
Cubs 62 (-143)+3
Balt 54 (-128)-3
Nyy 64 (-200)-3
Det 68 (-185)+3 RL 54 (+105)+5
bost 62 (-165)-1
cws 51 (+130)+7
Kc 53 (+114)+6
Laa 63 (-123)+7

system totals

mets@Sf un8.5 66% (+110)+18 --ump Froemming is a good under-ump
phil@Ariz un9 65 (-125)+9 --ump Bell is even
sd@Atl un8.5 69 (-130)+12 --ump Wolf fairly even historically, but 5-1 unders in '07 with a rather high K%
pitt@Cubs un8??? 72 (n/a) --ump Hallion is a decent under ump
seat@Det un9.5 65 (-115)+11 --ump Iassogna is even
oak@Kc un8 74 (-105)+22 --ump Culbreth, for years, has always been an even up; 2006, and so far this year, he's been quite an over-ump (anomalous?)?calling him even for purposes here

I also liked chisox@Twinkies under, though not a system total, but ump DeMuth is somewhat of an over-ump. Pass there.
Barrett's a decent under play, at Laa, so if Byrd throws a good game this one could be down.
Cederstrom is a good over-ump in the Yankees game.
I liked tbay@Balt under, again not a system total, but Hoye is an over-ump. Pass again.

Today's board is gonna be fun. One way or the other?some great games.
I need some time to narrow down my choices?it's going to be to tough.
Be back to post my picks when they happen.

Check this out in the meanwhile:
System sides, after going 10-5 yesterday, are 71-37 in May (65.7% winners).
System totals have been .500 for a few days, and are now 13-8 for May.

Maybe I'll just post the stats page?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

system statistics

system statistics

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...71-37
51??...17-15?.17-15??3-1
52??...13-13?.13-13??2-4
53??...16-16?.16-16??6-3
54??...14-8?...14-8??..4-3
55??...9-12??9-12??.3-4
56??...17-4??17-4??.1-4
57??...8-6??...8-6??..7-3
58??...8-11??.8-11??3-2
59??...11-11?..11-11?...4-3
60??...12-9??12-9??.3-2
61??...10-8??10-8??.6-0
62??...10-8??10-8??.2-0
63??...13-9??13-9??.3-2
64??...7-10??7-10??.6-2
65??...10-4??10-4??.2-1
66??...9-5??...9-5??..4-0
67??...6-2??...6-2??..2-1
68??...5-4??...5-4??..1-0
69??...1-2??...1-2??..1-1
70??...2-2??...2-2??..1-0
71??...1-2??...1-2??..1-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..1-0
73??...1-1??...1-1??..2-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..2-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..0-1
76
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80
totals?..45-53?..45-53??13-8
(posted system totals)

That's up to date.
70's have recovered from a horrible April--doing nicely.
I needed totals to turn around, too.

Be back with plays after I've endeavoured.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

wow...Mariners OPS vs lefties at .822

WAS only .753 through April

Therefore...

they've been smokin' lefties lately.

One system total I am totally passing on,
as Baek is a good candidate to get crushed, too.

ump is no factor

9.5 is high for Comerica

I'll pass and ride the Ti'gres

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

D'Rays OPS .815 vs lefties
and Bedard hasn't dazzled (consistently) this year

That's why the O's figure is so low (54%).

Shields has had some really good outtings this year.
His last 3 have been solid.

I liked this under, but with an over-ump going (Hoye), a total of 9 in a decent hitter's park, and a line of +120...I'm thinking over or nothing, here.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I want to try the Royals and chisox,
but these games are toss-ups, in my opinion.

53 & 51 percents.

Some dog money...not much, really.
More on the more iffy (51%) chisox (+130).

I can't expect system numbers to keep bustin' the line.

Passing on these crapshoots.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

D'Backs OPS .640 vs lefties

Phillies OPS .793 vs lefties

Johnson needs a good game, here,
to save the under.

D'Backs pen has been quite good while Phillies has stunk.

no help from the ump (Bell)

Where is flippin' Hirschbeck when you need him?
:shrug:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

new car, caviar, four-star daydream...

new car, caviar, four-star daydream...

PLAYS

system sides

Brewers -1.5 -110 0.55/0.5
mets -145 2.9/2
Marlins -125 1.5/1.2
Angels -123 1.23/1

other sides

Tigers -1.5 +105 0.8/0.84

totals

mets@Sf un8.5 +110 2/2.2
phil@Ariz un9 -125 1/0.8
sd@Atl un8.5 -130 1.3/1
oak@Kc un8 -105 2.1/2

2-teamer
--Tigers ml
--bosox ml
+141
0.71/1

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Cubs ml
+171
0.58/1

7-teamer
--Brewers ml
--mets ml
--Marlins ml
--Braves ml
--Cubs ml
--Tigers ml
--bosox ml
+2792
0.36/10


That's a wrap.
Let's see some pitcher's duels!

GL

 

[~Buckshot~]

Thanks for the work, your posts are a must read for me. Question, still working on how you use your numbers, curious why KC and CWS are not plays at plus money and +6 and +7 respectively?
Read the post in regards to games being toss ups, why the strong plus numbers? Thanks.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sorry for the delay in asnwering, Buckshot...
...slept in quite late.

While I had leans to the chisox and Royals,
and my system picked them as winners,
I backed off them as I had a number of other plays that I liked better, and the numbers also dicated that they would be tough calls.
(51 & 53%'s, respectively).

I'm looking for higher % games to try,
preferably at 60% or higher.
Makes me play a lot of favorites--therefore a lot of juice--but that's what's had success for me in the past.

e.g Mets were only +6, but at a nice, high 66% opportunity.

Turns out the chisox would have been a nice play.
Royals currently tied at 2, also.

It should come as no surprise that a
+10, at, say, +100, gives a higher return on investment than, say,
+10 at -150.

60% (+100)+10
...60 x 1 = +60
...40 x -1 = -40
-----------------------
+20
------------- = 20% ROI
100 plays

70% (-150)+10
...70 x .66 = 46.66
...30 x -1 = -30
-----------------------------
+16.66
-------------- = 16.6% ROI
100 plays


The above proof is currently a problem for me, in my strategy.
Looking for the more favorable %'s makes sense to me, as each game is a one-shot deal. Sure, we're in for the long haul, but each play still stands alone as a one-shot deal.

I'm planning on creating a seperate thread--one that people can go back at to see anytime--that explains my system numbers and how to understand them. I'm not sure how much confusion exists.

People probably won't care much if I can keep busting the line!

Still need some help, tonight, though I've hit a few nice ones, already.

Looks like the Tigers might cost me my 7-teamer.:com: (oops--Marlins already toast...forget that)

Oh well, hit both side and total nice in the Mets game.:00hour

Let me know if this clears anything up.
I hope you were on the chisox!

One more thing...
chisox, e.g., were +7 as the break-even point on
+130 bets is 44%

100 (risk)
-------------- = 43.4%
230 (total payout)

With the game pegged at 51%, that gives me a +7 value indicator.

Hope this at clears up the V.I., while maybe not explaining my betting strategy.

GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

crap...Weaver with a rough start...

Looks like I need A's@Kc to finish nice and low
for me to salvage any plus for Wednesday.

C'mon bullpens!

C'mon Angelsticks!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

a run by KC...incredible...
I SHOULDA had chisox and Royals, today.

Hope K.C's closer can finish thing up.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I cannot believe that Byrd is going to shut out the Angels.

:nono:

Let's Roll!