thanx guys.
* Bets are made at bet365.
For those who are curious and mebbe this helps someone (I am also bored of reading documents @ work) :
Why do I insist on paying the juice for the first 4 1/2 innings (FOR UNDERS ONLY) ?
To give a couple of logical reasons
a. I have absolutely no faith in the bull pens and closers (other than Smoltz) period.
b. A lot of the good starting pitchers .. when they do break down do so around the 6'th to 7'th inning when pitch count is high and they may be getting tired.
c. In the NL another advantage as I have stated before is the pitcher having to bat. In the first 4 1/2 innings chances are there will not be a pinch hitter for the pitcher. If there is then chances are you have lost the bet already by then. In first 4 1/2 Innings we need 27 outs. Out of that the two pitchers are going to bat once at least .. so over all times. So pitchers basically bat for around 7.4% of the total batting. If the home pitcher is a better pitcher this gives an advantage bcoz the better pitcher will be pitching for 5 innings. And the road pitcher will pitch to home team for 4 innings.
d. U dont get screwed by extra innings. In late games a lot of teams get down to basics like stealing bases to stay out of the double play and bunting. Chances are they may not take the risks in the beginning of the game.
e. If you can win this way then do what Lou Maneheim in Wall Street said "Stick with the Fundamentals - that is how IBM and Hilton were built" .. .in our case we want to build a bankroll but gotta love the line.
Reverse logic for the Overs: Make who game bets.
Today there may b a good possibility of:
Boston Under 5 Runs in first 4 1/2 Innings and
Boston Over 10 1/2 Runs hitting. :shrug:
Going with
Philly @ Montreal Under 4 Runs for First 4 1/2 Innings
Millwood Vs Okha .. . Okha had 3 good starts before faltering against Atlanta in Atlanta ..
Now back home ..
Millwood after the last start against Florida
"I feel like I'm getting out of the funk I was in," said Millwood, who was 2-5 in his previous
seven starts. "I felt I located the ball much better."
Looks like Confidence is high.
Both pitchers have a good record vs the opposing team.
MILLWOOD is 9-5 when starting against MONTREAL with an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.198.
His team's record is 10-6 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-8. (-0.4 units)
OHKA is 4-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 1.58 and a WHIP of 0.925.
His team's record is 5-1 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.5 units)
Last 10 games Millwood has give up 5 HR .. but 3 of them came in 1 game against Atlanta.
Okha has a tendency to give up a lot more HR with 10+ HR in last 10 games. He did give up 2 HR to Philly in a 3-2 loss .. Hopefully Philly had its share of HR yesterday.
Wally Bell is at HP .. He is 6 - 2 - 1 Over in last 9 games. For the year he is 8 - 8 - 1. I think he goes Under today.
Millwood has won 4 of 5 with Bell at HP. In this last 3 games have gone Under in which Millwood has given up 3, 1 and 3 runs respectively.
Okha in one game with Bell at HP gave up 4 runs to atlanta in a 4 - 0 loss.
Needs 5 runs to take out money away. I think around 1-3 runs may be scored in the first 4 1/2 innings in this one.
Played for $173 to win $150.43 .. LETS GO UNDER .. LETS GO PITCHERS ..
***
Taking a look @:
Boston @ Toronto Under 5 Runs for first 4 1/2 Innings
I think 6 runs in the first 4 1/2 Innings may be a tall ask. Lowe has been pitching well of late and Escobar usually self destructs in the 6'th inning on. 5 Runs scored will be a push .. dont see 6 runs in the first 4 1/2 innings.
Yankee's @ Cleveland Under 4 Runs for first 4 1/2 Innings
** Wells last 5 games against Cleveland have gone over .. Sabathia's last 4 games against Yanks have gone over .. hmm .. . .
Good luck
Cheers !!!
Spock
