Wednesday September 19th 2007
yesterday: 7-8 +1.92
September: 122-116 +14.58
ml 53-43 +9.19
rl 4-6 -3.88
totals 38-23 +9.83
parlays & IFs 27-44 -0.56
system picks 1-0 yesterday; 27-28 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-2 yesterday; 43-20 in September (68%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
mets 54% (-138)-4
Atl 54 (-143)-5
Hou 52 (+130)+8
Cubs 58 (-172)-5
Stl 58 (-110)+5
lad 57 (-128)even
sf 53 (+127)+8
Sd 65 (-160)+3
Clev 64 (-173)even
seat 68 (-125)+12 RL 54 (+130)+10
tb 58 (+132)+14
Nyy 60 (-300)-15 balt 40 (+270)+12 +1.5 54 (+150)+14
bost 65 (-108)+13 RL 51 (+145)+10
Kc 64 (-125)+8
Min 60 (-135)+2
system totals
mil@Hou ov9.5 70% (+109)+22 --ump Tshida a slight under-lean; hurts but no kill
phil@Stl un9.5 65 (-116)+11 --Montague a slight over-lean; same
sf@Ariz un8.5 69 (+101)+19 --Barrett is a decent UNDER-ump
pitt@Sd un7 66 (+106)+17 --Everitt is an UNDER-lean in odd-numbered years; 10-19 so far in '07
balt@Nyy un10.5 70 (+100)+20 --ump Fletcher, pretty even historically, is 3-12 on totals in '07 with a very high K%
Hit my 2 biggest sides so I really should have done better yesterday. Missed that darn Petco total by a garbage run; take away the 1st inning and that game was way under. Would have done better if I didn't mess around with all those IF's. Oh well, still have 2 live parlays with the Padres for Wednesday, so I'm hoping to grab that 3 units there (total payout). Three Days (?was the morning?) of winning in the books, now, and feeling kind of hungry for a fourth.
Mariners, Devil Rays, Red Sox and Royals are system picks on Wednesday. M's best when facing a lefty and have a solid Felix going. Like the D'Rays chances with Shields, but didn't like the D'Rays scoring so little on Tuesday. And that line is down now, I see, at 2 am eastern; not sure why?maybe Vladdy ooffed himself or something; could be a pitching change for all I know?maybe Bartolo ain't feeling so hot. Red Sox look good to avoid the sweep, in my opinion, as the Jays were lucky to score like they did yesterday and face a better go in Bucholz than Lester in my opinion. Litsch really isn't that good, he's just gotten away with being not that good for awhile?still not thrilled about him for the Jays rotation next season?Halladay, Burnett, Marcum and McGowan look like a great 4 to start the season, if possible; Chacin might be back but I'm not crazy about him anyway. Jays likely go down with Litsch going; Bosox 7-day OPS is up close to .900 and it showed yesterday?they got a lot of hits off of Burnett but just didn't cash many, and Litsch is dogshit when compared to Burnett; I hate to play against my boys but the price was right so hoppy. I see it now at -118?still a system pick at that line as that has a 55% break-even mark and my call is Bosox 65%...a sweet plus 10 indicator with a pretty high call to boot, and very minimal juice. Royals look good as they actually took #2 on Tuesday and have their best going in Bannister,,and facing a Contreras who, despite being slightly better lately (not difficult?not much better, just the Chisox are winning when he starts)?back to Jose?he's allowed?it was 21-23 base hits over his past 2 starts, spanning only 11 innings or so (too tired to go look it up?something like that?he's been real hittable, anyway). Looks good with Bannister. Royals bats are a little scary.
Speaking of scary bats, I don't know about backing the Giants today, though there seems to be some value at present lines; Zito looking sharp the past 4-5 weeks. Astros might be worth a gamble too, facing Bush, but Gutierrez is kind of an x-factor and the Brewers look pretty good these days so I don't think I can go against them. Cards might be worth a shot, with Wainwright going, but the pathetic Cards lineup that was installed yesterday did basically nothing against a very shoddy Phillies bullpen (including looking pathetic in 2 innings facing era over 7 Jose Mesa). Padres with some value as Young simply owns them. Not sure about taking another shot with Garza; he looked fabulous a couple of months ago but that was a long time ago in a galaxy far away, or so it seems. I might try a piece; Twins have taken the first two and I feel real lucky to have survived Tuesday intact, to be perfectly honest.
Totals will be totally small for me. Was liking that Yanks game under but they have scored 20 in the first 2 home, kind of like I'd been predicting (didn't play the team over the 6 yesterday (except on a dead IF) as I was kinda hoping for a miracle Orioles victory). Stupid me?I'm backing them (O's) tomorrow/today.
I might be happy with what I've already got.
Probably post it soon. I've been up for about 23 hours now.
GL
yesterday: 7-8 +1.92
September: 122-116 +14.58
ml 53-43 +9.19
rl 4-6 -3.88
totals 38-23 +9.83
parlays & IFs 27-44 -0.56
system picks 1-0 yesterday; 27-28 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-2 yesterday; 43-20 in September (68%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
mets 54% (-138)-4
Atl 54 (-143)-5
Hou 52 (+130)+8
Cubs 58 (-172)-5
Stl 58 (-110)+5
lad 57 (-128)even
sf 53 (+127)+8
Sd 65 (-160)+3
Clev 64 (-173)even
seat 68 (-125)+12 RL 54 (+130)+10
tb 58 (+132)+14
Nyy 60 (-300)-15 balt 40 (+270)+12 +1.5 54 (+150)+14
bost 65 (-108)+13 RL 51 (+145)+10
Kc 64 (-125)+8
Min 60 (-135)+2
system totals
mil@Hou ov9.5 70% (+109)+22 --ump Tshida a slight under-lean; hurts but no kill
phil@Stl un9.5 65 (-116)+11 --Montague a slight over-lean; same
sf@Ariz un8.5 69 (+101)+19 --Barrett is a decent UNDER-ump
pitt@Sd un7 66 (+106)+17 --Everitt is an UNDER-lean in odd-numbered years; 10-19 so far in '07
balt@Nyy un10.5 70 (+100)+20 --ump Fletcher, pretty even historically, is 3-12 on totals in '07 with a very high K%
Hit my 2 biggest sides so I really should have done better yesterday. Missed that darn Petco total by a garbage run; take away the 1st inning and that game was way under. Would have done better if I didn't mess around with all those IF's. Oh well, still have 2 live parlays with the Padres for Wednesday, so I'm hoping to grab that 3 units there (total payout). Three Days (?was the morning?) of winning in the books, now, and feeling kind of hungry for a fourth.
Mariners, Devil Rays, Red Sox and Royals are system picks on Wednesday. M's best when facing a lefty and have a solid Felix going. Like the D'Rays chances with Shields, but didn't like the D'Rays scoring so little on Tuesday. And that line is down now, I see, at 2 am eastern; not sure why?maybe Vladdy ooffed himself or something; could be a pitching change for all I know?maybe Bartolo ain't feeling so hot. Red Sox look good to avoid the sweep, in my opinion, as the Jays were lucky to score like they did yesterday and face a better go in Bucholz than Lester in my opinion. Litsch really isn't that good, he's just gotten away with being not that good for awhile?still not thrilled about him for the Jays rotation next season?Halladay, Burnett, Marcum and McGowan look like a great 4 to start the season, if possible; Chacin might be back but I'm not crazy about him anyway. Jays likely go down with Litsch going; Bosox 7-day OPS is up close to .900 and it showed yesterday?they got a lot of hits off of Burnett but just didn't cash many, and Litsch is dogshit when compared to Burnett; I hate to play against my boys but the price was right so hoppy. I see it now at -118?still a system pick at that line as that has a 55% break-even mark and my call is Bosox 65%...a sweet plus 10 indicator with a pretty high call to boot, and very minimal juice. Royals look good as they actually took #2 on Tuesday and have their best going in Bannister,,and facing a Contreras who, despite being slightly better lately (not difficult?not much better, just the Chisox are winning when he starts)?back to Jose?he's allowed?it was 21-23 base hits over his past 2 starts, spanning only 11 innings or so (too tired to go look it up?something like that?he's been real hittable, anyway). Looks good with Bannister. Royals bats are a little scary.
Speaking of scary bats, I don't know about backing the Giants today, though there seems to be some value at present lines; Zito looking sharp the past 4-5 weeks. Astros might be worth a gamble too, facing Bush, but Gutierrez is kind of an x-factor and the Brewers look pretty good these days so I don't think I can go against them. Cards might be worth a shot, with Wainwright going, but the pathetic Cards lineup that was installed yesterday did basically nothing against a very shoddy Phillies bullpen (including looking pathetic in 2 innings facing era over 7 Jose Mesa). Padres with some value as Young simply owns them. Not sure about taking another shot with Garza; he looked fabulous a couple of months ago but that was a long time ago in a galaxy far away, or so it seems. I might try a piece; Twins have taken the first two and I feel real lucky to have survived Tuesday intact, to be perfectly honest.
Totals will be totally small for me. Was liking that Yanks game under but they have scored 20 in the first 2 home, kind of like I'd been predicting (didn't play the team over the 6 yesterday (except on a dead IF) as I was kinda hoping for a miracle Orioles victory). Stupid me?I'm backing them (O's) tomorrow/today.
I might be happy with what I've already got.
Probably post it soon. I've been up for about 23 hours now.
GL
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