Wednesday September 5th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday September 5th 2007

yesterday: 10-9 +2.3
September: 32-37 -2.5
ml 13-9 +3.53
rl 1-3 -6.52
totals 11-9 -0.59
parlays & IFs 7-16 +1.08
system picks 3-1 yesterday; 8-8 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 9-6 in September (60%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mets 54% (-136)-4
Atl 53 (-158)-9 phil 47 (+150)+7
Wash 59 (-119)+4
Mil 67 (-155)+6 RL 52 (+135)+9
Cubs 53 (-147)-7 lad 47 (+140)+5
Stl 67 (-150)+7 RL 51 (+134)+8
Col 72 (-163)+10 RL 58 (+125)+13
Ariz 59 (-122)+4 (Hernandez-Cassel)
sd 63 (+110)+15 (Peavy-Hernandez)
clev 57 (-115)+3
oak 51 (+149)+10
Det 66 (-220)-3 RL 51 (-106)-1
seat 52 (+157)+13
Bost 56 (-165)-7 tor 44 (+157)+5
Tb 57 (-143)-2
Tex 58 (-135)even

system totals

phil@Atl un9.5 69% (+100)+19 --Marquez is a bit of an over-ump
sf@Col un10.5 66 (-121)+11 --Darling is a bit of an UNDER-ump
clev@Min un8.5 65 (-116)+11 --ump Hoye is even (though 17-10 this year)
balt@Tb ov11 66 (+101)+16 --ump Fairchild is even
kc@Tex ov10 68 (-121)+13 --ump Iassogna is even


D'Rays coulda pulled it out and I'd have been a BIG winner on Tuesday. Totals are again hurting (2-4). Improvement on sides (5-2). Holding my own on parlays & IFs.

Brewers, Cards, Rockies, Padres (if it's Peavy?one of my books had a +110 line open for about 10-20 minutes so HOPPY), A's and Mariners will be system picks for Wednesday. That's a full 6, including 2 puppies (3, actually maybe), so if system picks continue their September improvements (3-1 Tuesday) then I should come out fine. I'll save game comments until a bit later.

Some totals might be worth trying but my totals have gone to shiite (cookie bomb) early in this month (8-0 first 2 days then pathetic the next 2 days?guess that balances out?sorta). Turner under looks best to me; actually all 3 unders look better to me than the overs but that's normally the case. Tropicana game over looks good, despite the 11, though it's kind of a big gamble considering that Sonnanstine just pulled a Cy Young performance in his last at Yankee Stadium; he was consistently just pathetic before that start. Totals should be small for me.

Will post all plays. Burned again by the Padres.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

astros un4.5 -130 (-7)Astros pathetic vs righties, particularly on the road (OPS .709 on the road, .715 vs righties, and they (were) 17-30 on the road to righties); sticking to the moneyline as Gallardo has some stinkers and Brewers pen not performing well lately; Astros 7-day OPS of .791 also a concern
--have Mil +3

sf un5 -135 (-11)I'm heavily into the moneyline but this one looks okay; might make an appearance on a parlay, for me; Jimenez looks pretty cool; G-Men 7-day OPS of .610 and have scored the fewest runs in MLB over that time (a full 7 less than 2nd worst Braves); ump Darling helps, if anything; hot
--have Rockies +3

Twins un4 -125 (-12)Carmona 2-1 with a 1.14 era vs Twins in 3 '07 starts; Twins 7-day OPS a poor .664; looks worthwhile, also; I'm playing the Indians ML but might try a piece, here....--...-..-.-...just remembered that Cain went into his last game vs the Rocks with a 1.35 era in 3 starts and he got pounded...4th meeting blues?...I hope not, today
--have indians -6; Baker superb in last and threw a beauty vs Indians early in August; Indians 7-day OPS a decent .778

Tigers ov6 +115 (+10)maybe not with the Tigers pathetic performance yesterday...desperately in need of wins, too; Floyd WAS a former 1st-rounder, so Tigres are expecting something to develop from him; Tigers 7-day OPS .803 but their run production is down
--have chisox -3; impossible to say what Rogers will do

o's ov5.5 +125 (+9)Sonnanstine 0-2 with an 11.17 era vs O's in 2 '07 starts...he was great in his last but total doshit in pretty much every start before that; O's 7-day OPS of .790 likely goes up if you tally in Tuesday's results; ump Fairchild 12-10 on totals and posts a very low K% on the season, which can only help matters
D'Rays ov6 +125 (+13)Liz looks like shit; D'Rays 7-day OPS of .938 and tops in MLB in runs scored, a full 13 ahead of 2nd place Angels (won't include Tuesday's result but it's not like they were shut down or anything yesterday)
----haven't done anything with this one yet...kind of a high total (11), but everything looks overly from here; I should probably get some while it's still near even money; team totals might be okay as they both pay well

Rangers ov5.5 +100 (+7)Rangers 7-day OPS of .776 should go up if you include Tuesday's performance
--have royals at +2


Them's the goods.
A couple look worth trying; my totals will improve.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system picks

Brewers -155 3.1/2
Cardinals -150 3/2
Rockies -163 4.89/3
padres +110 3/3.3
a's +149 1.5/2.24
mariners +157 1.5/2.36

other picks

phillies +150 0.8/1.2
Nationals -116 1.16/1
indians -115 1.72/1.5

totals

phil@Atl un9.5 +104 1/1.04
giants under5 -135 0.86/0.64
clev@Min un8.5 -116 0.81/0.7
Twins under4 -125 0.75/0.6
o's@Tbay ov11 +110 0.8/0.88

2-teamer
--Nationals ml
--giants under5
+214
0.5/1.07

2-teamer (67 pack)
--Brewers ml
--Cardinals ml
+172
0.55/0.95

2-teamer (high NL call (72%) with high AL call (66%))
--Rockies ml
--Tigers ml
+129
0.65/0.85

2-teamer
--sf-Col un10.5
--Tigers ml
+155
0.65/1

2-teamer
--sf-Col un10.5
--kc-Tex ov10
+220
0.5/1.1

12-team IF bet
1.pitt-Stl un10 0.55/0.5
2.Rockies -1.5 0.5/0.55
3.Brewers -1.5 0.5/0.63
4.Tigers -1.5 0.6/0.5
5.phil-Atl un9.5 0.62/0.62
6.blue jays 0.8/1.2
7.a's 1/1.45
8.mariners 1/1.45
9.balt-Tb ov11 2.1/2
10.Nationals 2.5/2
11.indians 2.52/2
12.kc-Tex ov10 2.5/2
0.55 to win max.14.9

13-team IF bet
1.blue jays 0.8/1.2
2.Cardinals 0.93/0.6
3.Brewers 0.8/0.5
4.Rockies -1.5 0.5/0.55
5.indians 1.26/1
6.Nationals 1.5/1.2
7.o's-Tb ov11 1.05/1
8.kc-Tex ov10 1.25/1
9.a's 1.5/2.18
10.mariners 1.5/2.18
11.Tigers -1.5 2.4/2
12.phil-Atl un9.5 2.1/2.1
13.dodgers 1.5/2.1
0.8 to win max.17.6


Didn't have time for much in-depth analysis as I had a few days worth of updates to do and then took a look at Thursday's sorry looking lineup. Looking to take advantage of some possibilities today as tomorrow may be a good day for a vacation. Rockies look the best, today, while the Brewers and Cards look inviting too. I'm curious what that Padres line reopens at as I'll probably pump ump this last affair if I'm looking good early on; Peavy looks good to coast into that NL Cy Young this season, leaving Brad Penny in his dust; Livan has been decent lately and Padresticks are always a major concern when backing them but this looks like a steal near even money. Trailing in priority for me but still worthwhile would be a hit on at least one of the A's or the Mariners; Blanton has done good work vs the Angels in the past, for the most part, and A's best chance is probably against a lefty and Saunders, meanwhile, has had a couple of poor outtings in a row. M's play is partly because of the crap work by Hughes and partly as the Yankees numbers vs lefties are much worse than vs righties (facing Horacio yesterday sorta doesn't count, as he is pretty much fade material this season); Yankees only 15-19 against lefties on the season, though they are 13-5 at home to L; might not need Washburn's best game if we see continuation from Hughes. As far as my other sides go, I'm trying the Nats, again, as Redding is 3-0 with a 1.46 era in 4 vs the Marlins AND Sergio has pitched 4 straight totally crappy games. Indians also look worth a shot as Carmona appears to own the Twins, whose production is way down anyways right now, and the Injuns have a decent edge at the plate. Phillies play is because there seems to be a bit of value on this doggie. Jays play (on the IF) is because I didn't learn my lesson yesterday.

I like my two team totals and I'm also trying some action on all 5 of the listed system totals. Totals aren't my strong suit, this year, but I am up on them for the season so there's no reason to give up on them because of a couple of bogus days.

Not much hope for tomorrow but I'll probably try the Bosox runline (Wakefield or Bucholz over Olson) at anything up to -130ish and maybe the Bosox team total over as they've had absolutely no trouble hitting the troubled Olson in 2 encounters this season. Angels (Escobar-Byrd) is the only other thing that might interest me and I really don't know what kind of line to expect for that one; you'd think it would be reasonable as Indians are pretty darn hot right now; this one might even be a system pick at up to -150 depending on Wednesday's results; Escobar has a complete game shutout vs the Indians already this season (7 hits, 0 BB, 9 K) and I think that the Angelsticks will have little trouble facing Byrd in their own backyard, despite the shutout that Byrd threw in his last.

Need to get September rocking.
No time like the present.
GL

 

[astroturf]

thanks extrapolater

thanks extrapolater

it's good to see someone has my back on my underdog pick Mariners ml. gl tonight. i'm still in shock that the braves actually came through for me. are you doing anything with the padres tonight?