Wednesday's best MLB bets

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Wednesday's best MLB bets
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

The Blue Jays are baseball?s most inconsistent team when it comes to wins and losses. But in recent games Toronto hasn?t been on the fence about one particular thing.

The Jays have played over the total in four straight games heading into Tuesday?s series opener with the Yankees. Toronto split a four-game series with the Tigers this weekend with an average of 11 total runs per game.

Now, the Jays face the deepest lineup in baseball in the most home runs friendly stadium in the bigs. New York is averaging more than five runs per game and hitting .283 ? second-best in the majors. Against Toronto, the Bronx Bombers have .279 BA and have punished their arms for 28 home runs in 16 games heading into Tuesday.

In their last 12 meetings, these AL East rivals have played over the posted total eight times ? including their most recent meeting (before Tuesday) which was a 14-8 slugfest in Toronto earlier this month.

Pick: Over

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (-150, 9)

With a 5.5-game cushion between the Minnesota Twins and the AL Central lead, the club could be considering packing up shop for 2009.

A recent rash of injuries hasn?t made things easy on the Twins. Star first baseman Justin Morneau missed Monday?s game with a bad back, DH Jason Kubel is in-and-out with a sore knee and third baseman Joe Crede has been shut down for the remainder of the season with sore back.

Minnesota won back-to-back games heading into Tuesday, but has struggled at the plate this month. The Twins are batting .262 and averaging under four runs per game, leading to a 6-7 September record.

Morneau, the biggest of the team?s concerns, has been nursing his aching back for some time now, according to manager Ron Gardenhire. Morneau aggravated the injury when sliding into first base Friday. An MRI later revealed inflammation in his spine. He?s hitting just .201 in the second half of the season.

"It's to the point now where we're checking on him," Gardenhire told the media.

Pick: Cleveland +142

 

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Wednesday?s streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Wednesday?s streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Wednesday?s streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Rich Harden (9-8, 4.04 ERA), Chicago Cubs

It?s hard to believe the Cubs put this guy on waivers in August. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is always a bit too high, but you?ve got to love his ability to get out of a jam with a timely strikeout.

Chicago has won four of his its last five games with the flame-throwing righty on the bump. He doesn?t go too deep into games (14 innings in his last three outings) but he keeps things close.

Jorge De La Rosa (14-9, 4.37), Colorado Rockies

De La Rosa is enjoying a fantastic final month of the regular season. Despite walking 13 over his last 18 innings, the lefty hurler is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in September.

The Rockies have won six of De La Rosa?s last seven starts dating back to Aug. 10.

His teammates will have to deliver a few more runs for De La Rosa to be successful Wednesday night. Entering Tuesday?s game, Colorado has scored just six runs in its last six games.

Joe Saunders (13-7, 4.81), Los Angeles Angels

Saunders appears to have finally shaken injuries and returned to his 2008 form. The lefty has given up just five runs in his last four starts and the Halos have in each of his last four appearances.

Saunders is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA since coming off the disabled list with shoulder stiffness. The under has also hit in three of those four games.

Slumping

Andy Sonnanstine (6-9, 7.15), Tampa Bay Rays

The last time Sonnanstine started a game for the Rays, he got tagged for eight runs in a little over two innings of work. That was just over a week ago. Problems with rotation have forced Joe Maddon to return to the righty pitcher to the five-man group.

He was down in the minors for most of July and August, but was recalled to fill in following Scott Kazmir?s departure.

He proved to be just as ineffective in his two return starts (0-2, 13 runs allowed in 7.2 innings pitched), but the slumping Rays don?t have many other options for a No. 5 starter.

 

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Baseball's most costly starting pitchers down the stretch

Baseball's most costly starting pitchers down the stretch

Baseball's most costly starting pitchers down the stretch

It's easy to look at elite pitchers' overall numbers and assume they're a strong bet down the stretch, but that isn't always the case. Many of baseball's top hurlers have struggled in the second half of the season, including a few that tend to make it an annual tradition.

Here are five big-name pitchers that haven't been worth their hefty price tags since the All-Star break.

Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

Doc's year has gone the way of the Blue Jay - flying high early and then hitting a mid-season swoon. Halladay was money in the bank in the opening weeks of the year, winning 10 of his first 11 decisions, as the Blue Jays raced out to a 27-14 start. Since then, the 2003 AL Cy Young Award winner is 5-8 despite being favoured in all but one of those 16 contests, and Toronto faded from the playoff race long ago . While Halladay might have been distracted by mid-season trade rumors this year, he has shown a tendency to slow in the second half over his career. In the previous three seasons, he had a 33-11 record before the all-star break and a 19-12 mark after it. Doc picked up a win over the Yankees Tuesday night.

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

Beckett is known for elevating his game in the playoffs, but he tends to struggle in the second half of the regular season. He's only 4-3 with a 4.60 ERA since the break, following an 11-3, 3.35 start to the year. In the previous three seasons, Beckett was 32-11 in the first half and 15-17 after the break.

Despite being substantial favorites in most of Beckett's starts, the Red Sox have gone only 6-5 with him on the bump in the second half. Two of those victories came when Boston was a -300 favorite or higher.

Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks

Haren has shown a tendency over the years to burn it up early and flame out late, and this season is no exception. He was 9-5 with a 2.01 ERA at the All-Star break, but is 5-3 with a 4.08 allowance since. In the previous three seasons, Haren allowed approximately 1.5 runs more per game after the break than before.

The oddsmakers appear to have caught on to Haren's tendencies, however. He's been favored in only three of his past six starts and was a +154 dog when the D-Backs lost 8-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 19. Haren won as a -138 favorite Tuesday.

A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees

In his first season wearing Yankee pinstripes, Burnett started with an 8-4 mark. However, he's only 3-5 with a 5.12 ERA since the break, dropping five of his last six decisions. Those defeats have been costly for New York backers - three of those losses came as chalk of -200 or more, including a 7-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles as a -320 favorite last weekend.

Burnett's second-half struggles contradict his career tendencies. From 2006-08, Burnett was 16-15 before the break and 22-9 afterwards.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Cain was able in the first half of the season, entering the break with a 10-2 record and 2.39 ERA. His ERA, though still excellent, has risen to 2.95 in the second half and he's fallen out of NL Cy Young contention with only three wins since the break. The Giants have been favoured in six of his last eight starts, going 4-4 during that span.

Cain is only 24 and is still improving, so it's difficult to put much stock in his previous second-half performances. A lack of run support is more to blame for Cain's post-break numbers.

Stats as of Wednesday, September 16.

 

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DUNKEL INDEX 16 SEP 09

DUNKEL INDEX 16 SEP 09

Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at Baltimore

The Orioles look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 1-11 in its last 12 games as an underdog.

Baltimore is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1.

Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110).

Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Florida at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 14.537; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.085
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.362; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.946
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-290); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-290); Under

Game 905-906: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 15.001; San Diego (Mujica) 15.287
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 15.095; Philadelphia (Blanton) 13.981
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-275); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+245); Under

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Parnell) 13.573; Atlanta (Lowe) 16.397
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-235); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-235); Under

Game 911-912: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Bazardo) 15.134; Cincinnati (Lehr) 14.007
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+125); Over

Game 913-914: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 15.905; Cubs (Harden) 15.181
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+155); N/A

Game 915-916: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.684; San Francisco (Cain) 15.417
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 15.118; Minnesota (Blackburn) 14.773
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Under

Game 919-920: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Dinardo) 14.888; Detroit (Bonine) 15.487
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160); Over

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 14.352; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.524
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 923-924: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Tallet) 15.565; NY Yankees (Gaudin) 15.297
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 925-926: LA Angels at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 16.529; Boston (Byrd) 15.918
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over

Game 927-928: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.411; Texas (Nippert) 15.509
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Chicago White Sox at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.833; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.970
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+105); Under

 

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Over or Under

Over or Under

Over or Under


Pro baseball is easily the most grueling schedule in the four major professional sports, with 30 teams going head-to-head over a 162-game schedule. The action takes place over a six-month period from April through September and the majority of teams know their destiny by the All-Star break.
At the beginning of the season, oddsmakers posted regular season win totals on each ball club. The wager itself is simple, bet either ?over? or ?under? the number posted by the bookmakers.

Every season you have overachieving teams and your classic case of underachievers as well.

Sportsbook.com oddsmaker Jeremy Ryan explained, ?The action this year at the book was pretty even. A handful of bets can still go either way, but it always helps to see popular teams fold up and that?s what happened this year.?

The Yankees and the Red Sox both had their win totals listed at 94 ? victories at Sportsbook.com, which was the highest amongst all 30 teams. New York is just a few victories away from eclipsing that number but Boston will need to finish on a strong note to achieve that mark.

The Cubs (92.5) and Mets (90.5) were the only other teams to have 90-plus wins posted at Sportsbook.com and both of them failed to come close. Injuries hurt the Mets all year long and Chicago never got into a groove like it did in 2008.

Colorado (76.5) and Texas (74.5) have both been pleasant surprises this year and gamblers backing the ?over? on this pair have benefited nicely. The Rockies still trail the Dodgers in the NL West but they do hold a solid lead on the NL Wild Card spot.

The one thing you realize in baseball is that it?s rare to see surprises like Colorado and Texas very often. However, it?s not uncommon to watch the bad baseball teams continue to stink it up.

Pittsburgh (69) had the lowest win total at the start of the season and the team didn?t disappoint. The Pirates might be lucky to get to 60 wins and that?s being generous. Washington (72.5) was another club that didn?t have high expectations and the Nationals certainly couldn?t come close to proving the naysayers wrong.

Based on the below table, we?re looking at 14 teams going ?over?, 12 teams going ?under? and four are too close to call at this point.

Check ?em all out and follow along until the end of the year!

2009 Win Totals from Sportsbook.com
Team Win Total Projection
Arizona Diamondbacks 86.0
Atlanta Braves 84.5
Baltimore Orioles 72.5
Boston Red Sox 94.5
Chicago Cubs 92.5
Chicago White Sox 77.5
Cincinnati Reds 78.5
Cleveland Indians 85.5
Colorado Rockies 76.5
Detroit Tigers 81.5
Florida Marlins 75.5
Houston Astros 72.5
Kansas City Royals 77.0
Los Angeles Angels 87.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 85.0
Milwaukee Brewers 81.5
Minnesota Twins 83.0
New York Mets 90.5
New York Yankees 94.5
Oakland Athletics 82.0
Philadelphia Phillies 88.0
Pittsburgh Pirates 69.0
San Diego Padres 71.0
San Francisco Giants 79.0
Seattle Mariners 73.0
St Louis Cardinals 83.5
Tampa Bay Rays 89.0
Texas Rangers 74.5
Toronto Blue Jays 77.5
Washington Nationals 72.5

 

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Giants go for sweep

Giants go for sweep

Giants go for sweep


The San Francisco Giants have the brooms ready as they meet the Colorado Rockies in the Bay Area tonight.

San Francisco is a -135 home favorite with the first pitch coming at 10:15 pm ET. The Over/Under is 7.5 runs.

San Francisco trails Colorado by just 2.5 games in the NL Wild Card after winning last night 10-2. Barry Zito got the victory giving up two runs in seven innings. The Giants won the opening game on Monday (9-1) with Tim Lincecum throwing another home gem.

The Giants (48-25) have the best home record in the NL. They are 7-1 at home versus Colorado this season, winning six straight. However, San Fran is 2-7 in their last nine Game 3?s of a series.


The Rockies are 3-14 in their last 17 road games against a team with a winning record. They have a three-game series at Arizona next, but then return home for a nine-game homestand. A win tonight would give them much needed breathing room.

Jorge De La Rosa (Colorado) vs. Matt Cain (San Fran)

Cain (13-5, 2.61 ERA) is the Giants co-ace along with Lincecum although he has struggled a bit of late. Cain has a 4.74 ERA in his last three starts and San Fran is 4-4 in his starts since August. That compares very unfavorably with their 16-5 record in his first four months.

Cain surprisingly has a 6.75 ERA in two home starts versus Colorado this year. One came on August 30th and he got the win despite giving up four earned in six innings. Cain is 2-0 with a miniscule .69 ERA in two starts at Coors Field this year.

De La Rosa (14-9, 4.37 ERA) has never had more than 10 wins in a season before this year. His K-rate is 9.18 per nine innings and he has been tremendous in three September starts (2-0, 1.50 ERA).

This is his first start at San Fran this year and he?s 2-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two home starts versus them. Colorado is 15-3 in De La Rosa?s last 18 starts.

Can San Francisco make the NL Wild Card race even closer?

 

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MLB Wild Card Races

MLB Wild Card Races

MLB Wild Card Races

A baseball fan?s work is never done.
We?ve spent all year building up a working knowledge of Major League Baseball and how to make a buck or two off America?s national pastime. Are we going to jump off the gravy train now that football has started? This is exactly the time to bet on baseball. The market is soft, the teams that are out of the playoff hunt are losing as fast as they can, and the teams still in contention are giving it their all to make it to October.

There?s one division race that can still be called a race: the National League West, where the Los Angeles Dodgers (86-59, 14.45 units) are four games up on the Colorado Rockies (82-63, 13.55 units) with under 20 games remaining in the regular season. The bigger excitement is in the Wild Card races. In the National League, the Rockies have lost three in a row, allowing the San Francisco Giants (78-66, 9.69 units) to crawl back within 3.5 games of a postseason berth. The American League has the Boston Red Sox (84-58, 13.12 units) winning five in a row to move 4.5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers (80-63, 18.67 units).



The Red Sox are very much in the driver?s seat. They have the best run differential among all the Wild Card candidates at +123 on the season, nearly double the +62 posted by the Rangers thus far. Going into Monday?s action, the Sox were 11-4 to win the AL pennant compared to 12-1 for the Rangers. And Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90 ERA last year) is scheduled to make his return to the lineup on Tuesday night after spending three months on the sidelines getting his arm back into shape from apparent overuse.

Matsuzaka will be thrown directly into the fire against the AL West-leading Los Angeles Angels (86-57, 22.38 units) in the start of a three-game set at Fenway Park. This is one of two speed bumps left in Boston?s path; the other comes in less than two weeks when the Sox wrap up a 10-day road trip with three games against the New York Yankees (93-52, 10.15 units). They lead Boston by 7.5 games in the AL East and are even-money favorites to win the pennant. That?s the hard part. Otherwise, the Sox have four series remaining against losing teams and no games against the Rangers to worry about.

The road ahead is tougher for Texas. There are two series (totaling seven games) left against the Angels, and the season ends with three games at Safeco Field against the Seattle Mariners (74-70, 6.93 units), who just finished taking two of three from the Rangers in Arlington. The bright spot on the schedule is six more games against the Oakland Athletics (65-78, -0.16 units), except they?ve already proved themselves hard to kill with a 9-0 shutout Monday night, burying the Rangers as +185 road dogs. When Brett Tomko is outdueling Scott Feldman, you know things aren?t going your way.

Over in the senior circuit, it looked for a while like the Rockies were going to run away with the Wild Card after stringing together eight consecutive wins. But their act isn?t going over as well on the road (37-36, 6.80 units) as it is at Coors Field (45-27, 6.75 units). Colorado dropped the last two games of their series with the lowly San Diego Padres, then fell 9-1 on Monday to Tim Lincecum and the Giants (-170).

This is still Colorado?s race to lose. The futures market had the Rockies priced at 7-2 to win the NL pennant, with the Giants at 20-1 and assorted Wild Card fringe candidates at much longer odds. But San Francisco has two more games coming up at AT&T Park against the Rockies, ending with an ESPN broadcast (Wednesday, 10:15 p.m. Eastern) featuring Matt Cain (13-5, 2.61 ERA) against Jorge De La Rosa (14-9, 4.37 ERA) in a favorable pitching matchup for San Fran supporters.

The rest of the 2009 schedule is kinder to the Giants. Both teams have to face the Dodgers on the road, but the NL Central comes calling at the end of September, and the Rockies have three games on tap against the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals (85-60, 11.85 units). San Francisco has four games versus the Chicago Cubs (74-68, -10.81 units). This race ain?t over yet.