wednesdays fatties

[fatdaddycool]

ok second season record 0-0-1
with the push on pens last night, could have taken the 1/2 goal but liked the positive moolah

trying to stay away from big chalk games as that wuld be easy to sit here and post detroit (ML) -380, ottawa -275, etc..but i simply dont see the value anymore of playing big games that take away from your bottom line on a loss, winning % has to be to high. I realize I am not telling anoyone anything they don't already know, but just explaining why I play some of the games as I do, witness last night. Knew there was a chance of a push, but pushes dont hurt and in hindsight the win would have been better but didn't lose and had all to gain. Not saying will only play dogs, but I wont even look to play games like detroit anymore unless on the other side or very good value.
That being said....here are my picks, fortunately a couple of quality cappers are on the same side of these as I am

Chi-Town Hustlers (ML)-125
Chi-Town u5.5 -125
Dallas (ML)-130
Calgary/San Jose u5 -120

will hook the under and Chi-town in that game also. Reasoning is this if you believe that Chicago will win the game then I go back and look at how they will win. Hawks don't outscore teams in a shootout type style they play the first and second periods close to the vest in a tight checking style and look for rebounds and garbage goals. They will keep their shifts short today as Brian Sutter feels that the team may come out rusty after long layoff, (see Chicago Sun times). Shorter shifts mean harder hitting and less scoring, (speaking strictly from my own experience, playing whole life ) as hits get you noticed and more ice time in later periods. Also Pho beat Hawks at home 4-1 in Jan and I don't see them sweeping season series against a clearly better team. Lastly coaching.!!!!
Dallas simply a revenge play.
Calg/SJ is a numbers play.
sorry for the rant, good luck to all

 

[Nick Douglas]

fdc,

Just so you know, Hawks have a 3-0 win from earlier this year over the Yotes, so there is no chance of a season series sweep. Hawks scored 2 empty netters in that one and were badly outshot.

I like what you wrote about big chalk. To be perfectly honest I would love to see people post money won/lost with their plays rather than won/loss records because in hockey the number of games you win or lose doesn't mean crap. I just worry that those folks who are new to hockey handicapping and start reading this forum will see nice records and lots of chalk plays posted and try to emulate that and loss their shirt. And it only compounds the problem to post a play of the day contest where people compete for a t-shirt based only on wins and losses rather than on money won or lost.

In reading the previous paragraph over, it does sound a bit sharp tounged and I don't mean it to be overly angry. I know there are guys who win plenty of money playing almost exclusively chalk plays. I just think what fdc wrote about chalk plays needs to be said.

 

[Chenker]

I agree with Nick about records not meaning a lot because if you play all heavy chalk you can lose a lot even if your record is close to 50-50. But not in all cases. My average play is roughly -125 - I rarely play a lot of games over -150. The only reason why I do not post my units because I think it only is valuable if you play the same amount of units everytime. If it were not for poor money management at times I would be close to even $$ for the year but I am down clsoe to 30 units. Someone like TV, who is a great capper and has a respectable record is down 50 units because of similar reasons he loaded up on a few games and lost or wins the ones he plays for a small amount of units.

Bottom line - post winners and do what works best..........

good luck

 

[fatdaddycool]

chenker

chenker

I'll be honest, I have only gone beyond 1 unit in any play on ice maybe once or twice, the same cannot be said about CBB or NBA as I try to stay away from heavy chalk also

 

[Mr Mo]

And it only compounds the problem to post a play of the day contest where people compete for a t-shirt based only on wins and losses rather than on money won or lost.

Nick,the topic on playing dogs or playing favoriites could go on
forever,so i would not deal with it...
everyone has their own methods in capping sports..

The POD was design to produce winners,see who the hot
cappers are .etc..
Everything is clearly stated as units won,pct and weekly.
The tee shirt contest is only a added bonus,to help produce
more winners and most of all to attract new posters,who
will feel more comfortable in this situation.
If u post a heavy favorite and it lose,it does affect your total units
What i dont understand,is why the reference to the POD..
This is a general topic,and it should be treated as such..
I see guys complimenting others on their 50 unit,heavy favorite
win,now that something worth looking at,dont u think ...
Mr Mo

 

[fatdaddycool]

mr. mo

mr. mo

I only speak for myself and i promise you I am in no way genuflecting on your outstanding POD thread. that thread is my favorite one in this site (MJ's) unless of course someone sends me a coupla bucks to say theirs is the best ...Honestly dude, you are the man and your work in this forum is greatly appreciated and I think I have said that before. My point, albeit somewhat skewed, is that I, and myself alone, is trying to stay away from big chalk. that is it so hope you understand I wasn't dogging anyone. FDC

 

[Mr Mo]

bump

 

[prospector]

case in point:

there's me: 29-23-2 54% and -20 units
(Stud plays hurt bad!)

then there's:
Kronheim 29-23-5 51% and +410 units
Zen 19-16-2 51% and +505

it shows up when you chew chalk.

 

[fatdaddycool]

btw

btw

doesn't anyone like my picks:shrug:
lol..no props no nothing boo hoo....lol
gl all

ps dont want to get bumped to general so lets call it a dead issue

 

[Mr Mo]

U will have a variation,as u stated
but it happen in every sports,everyone CAP in their own method
I accept debate on this subject,but it should be in general

 

[ND2002HORNS]

fdc,

Go with what you feel good about. I never try to let anyone change what I play. The only thing I watch for are key players out with injuries. So if someone posts someone is out then I will change a play otherwise stick to what you originally thought. Just a thought. Everyone that is giving you advice just cares about you that is all, that is why the hockey forum is such a great site, everyone trying to help each other.

HORNS

 

[Sam]

Ok, last time i say this, the reason i only post record is...

i dont post my picks to brag or show anyone how much i am up, i post picks just to say who i am taking and to help anyone out who thinks they want to follow me. I dont play the same amount of units on everyplay, so the units would end up being decieving. By posting the record, someone who is new to here, or not, can feel confident with the fact that i pick more winners then loosers. And if i do take picks in a night with high chalk, im not holding a gun to your head to pick them, its up to you, im only telling you who i am taking. When someone has a record near 500 or below but has plus money, how can you expect someone to trust them on that pick, when they loose half the time. I know i wouldnt feel confident following someone who is hitting 50 % or less. So if there is a problem the way i post , let me know, i have no problems not posting here. I dont do this for myself, i can continue to make money on my own, posting picks is in no way benefiting me or my bank roll !

 

[prospector]

Chi-Town Hustlers (ML)-125
Chi-Town u5.5 -125
Dallas (ML)-130
Calgary/San Jose u5 -120

i like the over tonite in the salami.

btw, i think as long as we're talking cappin' hockey it isn't general.
or if we're discussing the POD contest in the hokey forum - it isn't general either.

i don't want to wade through 10,000 posts about "who has the biggest tits" just to find out how hockey handicappers cap hockey.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Mr. Mo,

I like the way the POD is shown on the chart. The problem I have is the way the t-shirts are given out because the incentive is to pick winners rather than worry about long term profit. I, along with everyone else in the forum, appreciate teh work you do on it very much. I was only talking about the t-shirt aspect of it.

Sam,

I understand your point of view but I disagree with it. Handicapping and helping others with posted picks should be about long term profitability in my opinion. Posting a won-loss record is a nice way to encourage lurkers to play your games because the winning percentage is high, there is no doubt about that. My only point is that it is ultimately meaningless. In hockey handicapping all that matters is dollars won or lost. I am not suggesting that you post the number of units you are playing on each game if you don't want to, but I do think a lot of people would find it helpful if you posted a figure showing your units won/lost if each game were played at one unit because that would be a far better indicator than a simple won/loss record.

 

[Mr Mo]

Nick
I do understand your point of view,but as far as i see,since i
started the t shirt contest,most guys are moving up in units
and that is a good sign..

But the best part of it is,the POD is growing


Goodluck on your plays
Mr Mo

 

[fatdaddycool]

note to all

note to all

Sam,
I love your picks, you set the standard at this forum. I am not sure where or who from you got the idea that I was ever talking about you or Stag or Mo or $$$ or Horns or mugs or Wigs or Centre Ice or Tiger or Nick or Gibber1 or T.V. or infinii or jbx cash or anyone that I have not mentioned.
Let me be very specific....I was only explaining why I have somewhat curved my line of thinking on who I will play... I like to call this thinking out loud .....not whose picks I like or how someone should present themselves on this forum..period. This is the best forum and I have chosen to alter the plays that I MAKE TO MY LOCAL thats it.
As far as changing my plays HORNS, I really do stick to what I post regardless, unless I hear some help the other way, or injury of course. That was my anemic attempt at humor:shrug:
I love it when people respond in my thread, trust me I need all the help I can get..!!!
As far as posting in general forum, we are talking hockey, and the respnses should be from hockey guys like us. Forcing us to peregrinate through the entire general forum only dilutes the responses received, either from apathy or lethargy, and we would lose all this great dialogue that we have tonight.

HUGS AND KISSES TO ALL

 

[Mr Mo]

FDC,u got the last part,mess up
No one mention general forum,check it over!!!

 

[Sports Junkie]

Very good discussion and one that I am surprised has not come up much more often. It is an issue exclusive to MLB and NHL capping due to the ML and Puck/Run line odds. It certainly should not be a topic for the General Discussion forum. Sam, if you don't want to post units so be it. Records can be deceiving if you predominately bet favs as Nick points out, unless you hit around 70% as you have! I would guess that even at -180 for every win and loss you would still be well up on the year.

 

[Mr Mo]

Come on Guys, to speak in General is a Phrase.
it does not mean General Discussion Forum..

 

[fatdaddycool]

mo

mo

point taken, thought when you said "

This is a general topic and should be treated as such

and

bump

and

I accept debate on this subject, but it should be in general

that you were alluding to general forum..not that there is anything wrong with that . sorry if I messed it up...............but I will say this..........if anyone gets mad at me or thinks I am trying to piss anyone off I am going to get ticked myself. This conversation generated itself..........I never honestly thought anyone read my stuff anyway..lol.....there should be absolutely no offense taken by anyone here cuz its not directed at anyone