Wednesday's Plays

[heleanth]

YTD Record on Posted Plays: 2-2 -0.5 units
Consensus Plays: 59-35 +20.09 units

Wednesday's Plays:

1. Montreal -148 (2 units) over LA. Ishii has been getting shelled lately and Colon should have enough to keep the Dodgers at bay enough to win this one.

2. Cleveland\TB UNDER 8 1/2 +102 (1 unit). Baez ERA on the road in the last 5 is 2.18, while Wilson's is 3.12 in his last 5 at home. Too much of a discrepancy to pass up, even with the questionable bullpens.

3. SD Padres +149 (1 unit) over NYM. I am usually a Leiter fan, but lately he has struggled (except for his last outing). Lawrence has an ERA in his last 5 away of 3.44, while Leiter's is over 4 in his last 5 at home. Nice price for Lawrence.

4. St Louis Cards -130 (1 unit) over Pittsburgh. Cards seem to have pulled out of their slump and Benes has been on fire, ERA of 2.49 in his last 5 on the road.

Good luck to everyone and thanks for all the great information and writeups.

 

[g0d1am]

I like your plays. Good luck tomorrow!

 

[ndnfan]

All your plays look pretty solid to me.

Love the San Diego play and an interesting note on that game is the fact that a number of the current San Diego players do hit Leiter very well. The one game that he faced San Diego in earlier this season was a very well pitched game, but it was also without 3 "Leiter Killers" in the lineup in GANT, KOTSAY, AND NEVIN. Their numbers vs him that go back through the 1998 season:

Gant .636 (7 for 11)
Kotsay .357 (5 for 14)
Nevin .353 (6-17)

Not sure if Kotsay will play or not...I believe he is listed as questionable...but these players do hit him well along with a couple others in the lineup.

Interesting note with Ishii: It's his first start in a dome which could cause problems as the guy already struggles on the road...so should favor Montreal. Just a couple things keeping me off this one such as the Ump Timmons, but think your on the right side here.

Think the Cleveland game goes under as well, but just a funny feeling keeping me off this one...if it was set a 9 would probably be all over it....possible Baez will have family watching tomorrow and he always tends to pitch better in those situations, plus like you said pitches better on the road and Wilson very good at home.


Best of luck Heleanth