nole....power of 3 plays is a pretty simple angle that has been working out ok so far...if your supersticious then you know that good and bad things happen in 3's.....so if a pitcher has 3-consecutive good outings , by good i mean 3-straight outings that he has over-achieved.....i look at his era and whip over his last 3-starts....if he has done better than his career average in 5 of the 6 categories then i bet against him in next start....and if hes done worse or under-achieved...then ill bet on him.
this angle seems to work best with your proven mediocre pitchers...like a shawn estes, john burkett,kris benson type...
also seems to work well when a proven top pitcher had had 3-bad outings in a row....then bet on him....your super star pitchers..like johnson, schilling,maddux etc..
now if a b. zito throws 3-straight with 2.50 era and a 1.1 whip, i wouldnt consider that over-achieving for him, so i wouldnt bet against him...now if he had 3- straight all under 2.00 era and under 1.00 whip, then yes i would bet go-against him, since those are over-achieving numbers for him...
like tonite....
matt morris has had 3-straigght bad outings....theres talk he maybe hurting....but, he fits into bet on him angle....plus.. p.wilson for reds has had 3-straight strong outings.....hes a definite bad to mediocre pitcher who has over-achieved.....he should get hammered tonite....
hope i explained it well enough.....if not ,glad to answer any other question u might have.
gluck, burgh..
