07:05 PM [956] PIT PIRATES -160 ( E JACKSON -R / R VOGELSONG -R )
04:05 PM [976] TOTAL u8-105 (CLE INDIANS vrs WAS NATIONALS) (TOMLIN/GONZALEZ)
08:05 PM [978] CHI CUBS -1.5 +105 ( R NOLASCO -R / J HAMMEL -R )
08:05 PM [980] TOTAL u10.5 -105 (COL ROCKIES vrs TEX RANGERS) (DE LA ROSA/PEREZ)
1 unit bet pays 11.70 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-130, -35.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Mart?n P?rez is generally better at home, TX on a nice 'under' streak, and those Colo bats usually nosedive when hitting the road after long stay at home, and Colo pitcher pretty decent, I read "Under is 20-8 in COL last 28 road games."
Rams you can get -4 (Saturday) read here how Cowboys' Sunday "scrimmage...quickly finished due to a staggering lack of personnel on defense...This team is dangerously thin on defense without having made any cuts. It's hard to imagine this unit making it four quarters, but that's what will happen Saturday.? ... you know Rams want to win in front of massive crowd for 1st LA home game in years...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Phelps was able to maintain his new (for this season) improved bullpen velocity in his 1st start for the season (blanked Colo at Coors 4.1 innings), use his new cutter to fine effect, and keep ahead of the batters the second time around with his changeup and curveball... read about it here "David Phelps is the Next Danny Duffy"
http://www.faketeams.com/2016/8/7/12397576/david-phelps-is-the-next-danny-duffy
Phelps has had great results, obviously. He is suddenly striking batters out, posting a 31.5 percent strikeout rate to go with a modest 10.1 percent walk rate on the year. His month of July was not the most impressive, as he gave up a few too many homers en route to a 3.65 ERA and 4.43 FIP, but the point stands: Phelps as a high-leverage reliever, at least in 2016, has been a success.
David Phelps - 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. It was the debut of Phelps as a starter this season and it went pretty dang well. It was cut short (70 pitches!) since he still needs to get stretched out and we have to give him bonus points for doing this in Colorado. I want to invest in Phelps in the NL Easy moving forward, though I do have a little caution in his next start since A) it's against the Giants but more importantly B) his limited pitch count will prevent him from going too deep into the game.
Under is 22-8 in Dodgers last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 21-8-2 in Dodgers last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 7-2 in Hellicksons last 9 starts overall.
LAD are 27-9 in their last 36 home games.
Under is 39-19 in LAD last 58 home games.
Kazmir has been just so-so at home this year with a 4-5 record and 4.21 ERA in 12 starts. But that punchless Phillies offense should be just the ticket. The Dodgers are 13-3 in their past 16 vs. the NL East and 27-9 in their past 36 homes games.
Josh Tomlin - 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Awwww, it's liek the Regression Angels elected to get all of his regression out in one start. Also, what has gotten into the Yankee offense lately? Matz, now Tomlin putting up clunkers against the Beltran-less sluggers. Quit winning guys! We want that Top 10 draft pick.
Gonzalez has been solid as of late, sporting a sparkling 2.03 ERA in his last five starts, and he has a dominating 5-0 record with a 1.07 ERA in his career against Cleveland,
RAYS 1ST HALF
The more I see of Blake Snell, the more I?m convinced the Rays have themselves a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher. Snell still has to improve his command, which can get a bit sketchy at times. But this kid has some lethal stuff, and he?s getting a very nice share of ugly swings and misses with what he?s throwing.
Snell draws tough tonight as JA Happ continues to be outstanding for Toronto. Metrics fanciers can certainly find fault with some of the peripherals. But at some point the reality just has to be accepted that Happ has turned into a winning pitcher, and in a pretty amazing way.
I think we?ve got an early inning pitching duel here between these two lefties. Both Snell and Happ are on nice rolls right now and it would be surprising to see either southpaw get blown up.
But while that sounds like a case for an Under play, I think the real value here is on the side. Based on the way Snell is bringing it over his last several starts, this game is overpriced. Normally, I?d just go Rays full game at a such a generous price, currently better than +170.
But let?s call it straight, I can?t buy a save right now and I?ll be damned if I?m going to let another late lead get away. I won?t get as attractive a price on the F5 wager, but I definitely want to back Snell and I don?t want to sweat Kevin Cash bringing in the wrong reliever, which has become an unfortunate constant with the Tampa Bay skipper. So make it a first half only play for me on the Rays and Snell.
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays +1?
Blake Snell continues to improve as a starter for Rays. He has allowed just five runs in his last three outings and has a 1.85 ERA on the road. Snell is also starting to strike batters out with 16 K's in his last two starts. The southpaw has never faced Toronto so that helps especially since the Jays offense isn't exactly in great form right now. They entered Tuesday night hitting just .229 in their last seven games. JA Happ is 15-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 22 starts with the Blue Jays. He has struggled with the Rays posting a 5.12 ERA in 11 starts against them. Already this season the southpaw has allowed 11 runs and 13 hits in just over eight innings against Tampa. Tim Beckham (4-10), Logan Forsythe (5-19), Evan Longoria (10-26) and Steven Souza Jr. (5-11) have had their success against Happ. The Rays are hitting .262 against left-handed starters averaging nearly five runs per game. Tampa has scored five runs or more in three of their last four and four of their last seven. They have taken four of the five games in Toronto. I think this is a ridiculous price.
On trying to come to grips with J.A. Happ
I have used the tag ?Full 162? here many times before and it can be a useful exercise ? it is taking back the last full season for a team or a player to get a different perspective on long-term cycles. J.A. Happ sure as hell brings one. Last August in the middle of a pennant race the Blue Jays were giving a chance to a 32-yeard old lefty journeyman with the kind of resume that might not have even had him in the league if he was right-handed. But then?
W/L ERA
Pre-L 162: 55-60 4.21
Last 162: 22-4 2.57
How does that happen? It is too long of a stretch for Baseball Being Baseball, so the focus needs to be on something tangible. In this case there is ? while many veteran pitchers turn their game around by finding some kind of tweak around their declining physical skills, usually a junk-ball, for Happ it has been the simplest, hence most unusual, of all. Happ is throwing more fastballs than ever, and batters are struggling with them.
Some of this credit can go to Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage, after Happ?s 7-2/1.85 in 11 starts as a Pirate in 2015, with 69 strikeouts over 63.1 IP. But the Blue Jays deserve credit for bringing him back after an uninspiring run from 2012-14, perhaps recognizing the potential that was lurking.
What happens when a pitcher starts winning with his fastball? Confidence grows. How about this for something you sure as hell would not expect from a guy that will turn 34 soon -
Happ SWS%
2015 8.1
Career 8.2
2016 9.9
That is quite a jump. And you can see the confidence in that pitch by the reliance ? Happ is throwing changeups on only 7.0 percent of all pitches this season, far below his career 11.5 rate coming in to the campaign. But before you get too excited here comes the Good/Bad of the pitching metrics; despite a 15-3/3.09 so far in 2016 they don?t like Happ all that much -
FIP xFIP SIERA
3.83 4.06 4.15
That collective trio brings him in close to league average, and understanding why does matter. Much of that stems from a .269 BABIP that looks a little too favorable, but what those categories don?t measure is that the Toronto defense is at .278, which means that when Happ takes the mound for this team he is not an outlier from a pitch outcome standpoint. But?
A big part of that defense, of course, is Kevin Pillar, who rates #1 in Defensive WAR at Frangraphs. He has been a major factor for a lefty who is only at 41.8 GB%. And now Pillar is on the DL, so while Happ has indeed done something tangible to turn a corner, he takes the mound tonight without a defensive compliment that has also made a major contribution to his positive run. It is not easy isolating Team Defense over a short cycle because of baseball?s geometry, but that is something that does go under the microscope tonight. For now, accept Happ?s resurgence because of the tangible issue of the change in pitch distribution; now let?s see how long he can maintain it.
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The Pirates have won three of four on their current home stand, and they host the Padres in the second game of this three game set at PNC Park Wednesday. The Padres have lost 11 of their last 14 road games, and they've lost four straight in Steel Town. Ryan Vogelsong will toe the slab for the Bucs, and he's coming off a solid performance. Vogelsong (1-1, 3.25 ERA) allowed one run on three hits, striking out six in six innings in a no decision versus Atlanta his last time out. He's owned the Padres, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last five appearances. The Padres hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who has been putting a ton of men on base. Jackson (2-2, 5.00 ERA) allowed three runs on eight hits over eight innings in a home win over the Brewers his last time out. He's put a total of 35 men on base in his four starts (25 innings) since joining the Padres. He's 1-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his last four starts at PNC Park. Andrew McCutchen owns Jackson, batting .419 with three home runs lifetime versus the right-hander.
Over is 35-17 in PIT last 52 home games.
Confession time: Drew Pomeranz originally checked in with a projected game score of 58, second highest on the docket. The reason for the projection is two-fold. First, the southpaw has not pitched especially well since joining the Boston Red Sox while the formula is still drawing from the first-half success he enjoyed in the Senior Circuit. Second, the opposing New York Yankees have hit left-handers well the past month with a paltry 17 percent strikeout rate.
Texas has more home games remaining than any team in the majors -- 30 of the final 48 -- and it owns a 34-17 at home.
Under is 20-8 in COL last 28 road games.
Coldest team: Angels (0-5 past five, 6-11 past 17)
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (8-0-2 past 10)
The last time the 'over' hit in a Texas Rangers game was July 29, 10 games ago. The 'under' is 8-1-3 in the past 12 interleague games for Texas, while going 4-1 in their past five games against a left-handed starter. In addition, Martin Perez is on the hill and the 'under' is 7-2 in Perez's past nine assignments, while going 3-0-1 in his past four interleague starts. And another 'under' might be coming, as the 'under' is 20-8 in Colorado's past 28 road games, and 4-1 in Jorge De La Rosa's past five road starts againt a team with a winning record.
NYY/Boston - Not enough consistency in these starters for me to think about betting. Bettors need some predictability!.. Pomeranz has flailed about and generally been worse since he joined Bosox. You'd think he'd be good here, want to show his new team and he dominated NYY earlier in season, but NYY not been striking out as much lately, have seen him, and have been strong against lefties of late - this offense we'd thought take a step back since trade deadline, but hasn't. yet...Eovaldi probably suck at Boston as usual, but then I thought he would vs Baltimore last month and on the road at TB, but didn't. Thought he'd be fine vs Mets and wasn't, and vs SF and we was - you get the picture....I'd take the over and Boston if I had to bet, but I would not be surprised to see a 4-3 final score, either team winning...and then you have Buster Olney reporting that the Padres hid some medical issue about Pomeranz from BoSox...am liking the over more now...
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...id_red_sox_get_damaged_goods_in_drew_pomeranz
The Angels have had difficulty scoring runs lately, and that's hard to believe with a lineup consisting of Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, etc. However, since July 17 the Halos have managed three or fewer runs in eight of their past 17 games while allowing five or more runs in 10 of the past 17. The Halos have really gone in the tank, losing their past five on the road, and each of their past four against right-handed starting pitching. They're also 7-19 in their past 26 road games vs. RHP, and 7-15 in their past 22 interleague battles, including 3-9 in their past 12 against NL Central foes.
Hottest team: Braves (4-0 past four, 6-1 past seven)
The Braves have caught fire on the road, winning four in a row by an average of 6.3 runs scored to just 3.0 runs allowed over the past four games. Atlanta has won four in a row against National League Central Division teams, and they have won six in a row on the road against right-handed starters. In addition, they're 5-1 in their past six games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP over 1.30, which Chase Anderson certainly qualifies. On the flip side, the Brewers have dropped five of their past six games overall, and they're just 9-23 in their past 32 games vs. RHP. Milwaukee is also just 6-13 in the past 19 starts with Anderson on the hill.
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -195
Investment Advice: I recommend risking at least 1/2 of your wager on the run line.
Recently-acquired Ricky Nolasco toes the rubber for the Angels with a 5.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 22 starts this season, together with a 5.16 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road and a 6.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last three outings. Nolasco's peripherals are equally disappointing: 4.47 FIP, 4.45 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA with a 6.68 K/9 rate and a 1.45 HR/9 rate.
The 33-year-old posted a 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 5.27 FIP and a 5.43 xFIP in 28.0 innings of work in July, and currently owns a 5.32 ERA, 6.81 FIP and a 5.38 xFIP in the second half of 2016 (22.0 IP). Those metrics are are further backed by a declining strikeout rate (4.91 K/9 vs. 7.04 K/9 in first half) and rising home run rate (2.45 HR/9 vs. 1.24 HR/9 in first half).
Even more disturbing is the fact that Nolasco's second-half numbers are poor despite being aided by an unsustainable .194 BABIP. Meanwhile, Chicago right-hander Jason Hammel has been outstanding at Wrigley Field where he is 6-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The 33-year-old has also been strong in the second half, posting a perfect 4-0 record with a 1.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 3.34 FIP in 24.0 innings.
I shied away from investing on Hammel at the outset of the second half in light of his career 5.05 ERA in the second stanza of the regular season. However, Hammel has dispelled those concerns by allowing just four earned runs over 24 innings (4 starts). The Cubs are 8-2 in Hammel's last ten home starts, 15-5 in his last 20 starts during game 2 of a series and 6-1 in his last seven starts with extended rest (7+ days). Chicago's bullpen has also been unhittable of late with a 0.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games.
In contrast, Los Angeles relievers have garnered a 6.85 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games, together with a 4.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road and a 4.33 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP versus National League opponents. Finally, the Cubs are 18-6 in their last 24 games overall, including winning 7 straight.
Matchup to watch: Athletics vs. Orioles
The Athletics are giving the Orioles fits at O.co Coliseum, winning each of the first two games to drop the O's into a tie for first place. The struggles on the road are nothing new for the O's, as Baltimore has won just four of their past 14 games away from Camden Yards. They've been unable to take advantage of the dregs of the league, either, winning just two of their past eight road games against a team with a losing record. Baltimore is also 4-13 in their past 17 against AL West foes. The A's have won five straight against AL East teams, and they're 5-0 in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record.
POD: MLB 1ST 5 FULL INN - 1H Miami Spread -0.5 +125 (Samardzija/Phelps) 12:10 PM EST[1952]
My record this thread since May 1: 56-35-4, +15.09 units (if risked 1 unit on each pick)...2-0 this week
We know how bad Samardzija has been lately, and on the road all season, and vs winning teams..and how The Fish have such a strong consistent offense of late...but the bet is not about The Shark or Miami's bats, it's about why "David Phelps is the Next Danny Duffy"
Phelps is just off his 1st start of the season, blanking the high flying Rockies at Coors for 4.1 innings. This was not unexpected. As the article linked to above explains, his new found (for this season) improved bullpen velocity he was able to maintain in his 1st start, and use his new cutter to fine effect, and then keep ahead of the batters the second time around with his changeup and curveball. In other words, he was able to still pitch lights out, as he has all season, as a stretched-out long reliever in a limited starter role....
For 5 inning bet, that's all he has to do today. Keep on repeating what he has been doing since April. Tho an extra advantage for us (that's what we need to qualify for a POD bet), Phelps will be pumped to be in the spotlight this day, in his 1st home start, helping his team who are desperate for a 5th starter and have no wiggle room to spare as they try to keep pace to win that wildcard playoff spot....Phelps is on a 9.5 inning scoreless streak now, watch for that streak to continue some additional innings.....with this HP ump, and Stanton out, the under is also a fine bet....and Miami to score first is a good prop bet...
04:05 PM [976] TOTAL u8-105 (CLE INDIANS vrs WAS NATIONALS) (TOMLIN/GONZALEZ)
08:05 PM [978] CHI CUBS -1.5 +105 ( R NOLASCO -R / J HAMMEL -R )
08:05 PM [980] TOTAL u10.5 -105 (COL ROCKIES vrs TEX RANGERS) (DE LA ROSA/PEREZ)
1 unit bet pays 11.70 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-130, -35.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Mart?n P?rez is generally better at home, TX on a nice 'under' streak, and those Colo bats usually nosedive when hitting the road after long stay at home, and Colo pitcher pretty decent, I read "Under is 20-8 in COL last 28 road games."
Rams you can get -4 (Saturday) read here how Cowboys' Sunday "scrimmage...quickly finished due to a staggering lack of personnel on defense...This team is dangerously thin on defense without having made any cuts. It's hard to imagine this unit making it four quarters, but that's what will happen Saturday.? ... you know Rams want to win in front of massive crowd for 1st LA home game in years...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Phelps was able to maintain his new (for this season) improved bullpen velocity in his 1st start for the season (blanked Colo at Coors 4.1 innings), use his new cutter to fine effect, and keep ahead of the batters the second time around with his changeup and curveball... read about it here "David Phelps is the Next Danny Duffy"
http://www.faketeams.com/2016/8/7/12397576/david-phelps-is-the-next-danny-duffy
Phelps has had great results, obviously. He is suddenly striking batters out, posting a 31.5 percent strikeout rate to go with a modest 10.1 percent walk rate on the year. His month of July was not the most impressive, as he gave up a few too many homers en route to a 3.65 ERA and 4.43 FIP, but the point stands: Phelps as a high-leverage reliever, at least in 2016, has been a success.
David Phelps - 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. It was the debut of Phelps as a starter this season and it went pretty dang well. It was cut short (70 pitches!) since he still needs to get stretched out and we have to give him bonus points for doing this in Colorado. I want to invest in Phelps in the NL Easy moving forward, though I do have a little caution in his next start since A) it's against the Giants but more importantly B) his limited pitch count will prevent him from going too deep into the game.
Under is 22-8 in Dodgers last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 21-8-2 in Dodgers last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 7-2 in Hellicksons last 9 starts overall.
LAD are 27-9 in their last 36 home games.
Under is 39-19 in LAD last 58 home games.
Kazmir has been just so-so at home this year with a 4-5 record and 4.21 ERA in 12 starts. But that punchless Phillies offense should be just the ticket. The Dodgers are 13-3 in their past 16 vs. the NL East and 27-9 in their past 36 homes games.
Josh Tomlin - 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Awwww, it's liek the Regression Angels elected to get all of his regression out in one start. Also, what has gotten into the Yankee offense lately? Matz, now Tomlin putting up clunkers against the Beltran-less sluggers. Quit winning guys! We want that Top 10 draft pick.
Gonzalez has been solid as of late, sporting a sparkling 2.03 ERA in his last five starts, and he has a dominating 5-0 record with a 1.07 ERA in his career against Cleveland,
RAYS 1ST HALF
The more I see of Blake Snell, the more I?m convinced the Rays have themselves a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher. Snell still has to improve his command, which can get a bit sketchy at times. But this kid has some lethal stuff, and he?s getting a very nice share of ugly swings and misses with what he?s throwing.
Snell draws tough tonight as JA Happ continues to be outstanding for Toronto. Metrics fanciers can certainly find fault with some of the peripherals. But at some point the reality just has to be accepted that Happ has turned into a winning pitcher, and in a pretty amazing way.
I think we?ve got an early inning pitching duel here between these two lefties. Both Snell and Happ are on nice rolls right now and it would be surprising to see either southpaw get blown up.
But while that sounds like a case for an Under play, I think the real value here is on the side. Based on the way Snell is bringing it over his last several starts, this game is overpriced. Normally, I?d just go Rays full game at a such a generous price, currently better than +170.
But let?s call it straight, I can?t buy a save right now and I?ll be damned if I?m going to let another late lead get away. I won?t get as attractive a price on the F5 wager, but I definitely want to back Snell and I don?t want to sweat Kevin Cash bringing in the wrong reliever, which has become an unfortunate constant with the Tampa Bay skipper. So make it a first half only play for me on the Rays and Snell.
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays +1?
Blake Snell continues to improve as a starter for Rays. He has allowed just five runs in his last three outings and has a 1.85 ERA on the road. Snell is also starting to strike batters out with 16 K's in his last two starts. The southpaw has never faced Toronto so that helps especially since the Jays offense isn't exactly in great form right now. They entered Tuesday night hitting just .229 in their last seven games. JA Happ is 15-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 22 starts with the Blue Jays. He has struggled with the Rays posting a 5.12 ERA in 11 starts against them. Already this season the southpaw has allowed 11 runs and 13 hits in just over eight innings against Tampa. Tim Beckham (4-10), Logan Forsythe (5-19), Evan Longoria (10-26) and Steven Souza Jr. (5-11) have had their success against Happ. The Rays are hitting .262 against left-handed starters averaging nearly five runs per game. Tampa has scored five runs or more in three of their last four and four of their last seven. They have taken four of the five games in Toronto. I think this is a ridiculous price.
On trying to come to grips with J.A. Happ
I have used the tag ?Full 162? here many times before and it can be a useful exercise ? it is taking back the last full season for a team or a player to get a different perspective on long-term cycles. J.A. Happ sure as hell brings one. Last August in the middle of a pennant race the Blue Jays were giving a chance to a 32-yeard old lefty journeyman with the kind of resume that might not have even had him in the league if he was right-handed. But then?
W/L ERA
Pre-L 162: 55-60 4.21
Last 162: 22-4 2.57
How does that happen? It is too long of a stretch for Baseball Being Baseball, so the focus needs to be on something tangible. In this case there is ? while many veteran pitchers turn their game around by finding some kind of tweak around their declining physical skills, usually a junk-ball, for Happ it has been the simplest, hence most unusual, of all. Happ is throwing more fastballs than ever, and batters are struggling with them.
Some of this credit can go to Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage, after Happ?s 7-2/1.85 in 11 starts as a Pirate in 2015, with 69 strikeouts over 63.1 IP. But the Blue Jays deserve credit for bringing him back after an uninspiring run from 2012-14, perhaps recognizing the potential that was lurking.
What happens when a pitcher starts winning with his fastball? Confidence grows. How about this for something you sure as hell would not expect from a guy that will turn 34 soon -
Happ SWS%
2015 8.1
Career 8.2
2016 9.9
That is quite a jump. And you can see the confidence in that pitch by the reliance ? Happ is throwing changeups on only 7.0 percent of all pitches this season, far below his career 11.5 rate coming in to the campaign. But before you get too excited here comes the Good/Bad of the pitching metrics; despite a 15-3/3.09 so far in 2016 they don?t like Happ all that much -
FIP xFIP SIERA
3.83 4.06 4.15
That collective trio brings him in close to league average, and understanding why does matter. Much of that stems from a .269 BABIP that looks a little too favorable, but what those categories don?t measure is that the Toronto defense is at .278, which means that when Happ takes the mound for this team he is not an outlier from a pitch outcome standpoint. But?
A big part of that defense, of course, is Kevin Pillar, who rates #1 in Defensive WAR at Frangraphs. He has been a major factor for a lefty who is only at 41.8 GB%. And now Pillar is on the DL, so while Happ has indeed done something tangible to turn a corner, he takes the mound tonight without a defensive compliment that has also made a major contribution to his positive run. It is not easy isolating Team Defense over a short cycle because of baseball?s geometry, but that is something that does go under the microscope tonight. For now, accept Happ?s resurgence because of the tangible issue of the change in pitch distribution; now let?s see how long he can maintain it.
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The Pirates have won three of four on their current home stand, and they host the Padres in the second game of this three game set at PNC Park Wednesday. The Padres have lost 11 of their last 14 road games, and they've lost four straight in Steel Town. Ryan Vogelsong will toe the slab for the Bucs, and he's coming off a solid performance. Vogelsong (1-1, 3.25 ERA) allowed one run on three hits, striking out six in six innings in a no decision versus Atlanta his last time out. He's owned the Padres, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last five appearances. The Padres hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who has been putting a ton of men on base. Jackson (2-2, 5.00 ERA) allowed three runs on eight hits over eight innings in a home win over the Brewers his last time out. He's put a total of 35 men on base in his four starts (25 innings) since joining the Padres. He's 1-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his last four starts at PNC Park. Andrew McCutchen owns Jackson, batting .419 with three home runs lifetime versus the right-hander.
Over is 35-17 in PIT last 52 home games.
Confession time: Drew Pomeranz originally checked in with a projected game score of 58, second highest on the docket. The reason for the projection is two-fold. First, the southpaw has not pitched especially well since joining the Boston Red Sox while the formula is still drawing from the first-half success he enjoyed in the Senior Circuit. Second, the opposing New York Yankees have hit left-handers well the past month with a paltry 17 percent strikeout rate.
Texas has more home games remaining than any team in the majors -- 30 of the final 48 -- and it owns a 34-17 at home.
Under is 20-8 in COL last 28 road games.
Coldest team: Angels (0-5 past five, 6-11 past 17)
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (8-0-2 past 10)
The last time the 'over' hit in a Texas Rangers game was July 29, 10 games ago. The 'under' is 8-1-3 in the past 12 interleague games for Texas, while going 4-1 in their past five games against a left-handed starter. In addition, Martin Perez is on the hill and the 'under' is 7-2 in Perez's past nine assignments, while going 3-0-1 in his past four interleague starts. And another 'under' might be coming, as the 'under' is 20-8 in Colorado's past 28 road games, and 4-1 in Jorge De La Rosa's past five road starts againt a team with a winning record.
NYY/Boston - Not enough consistency in these starters for me to think about betting. Bettors need some predictability!.. Pomeranz has flailed about and generally been worse since he joined Bosox. You'd think he'd be good here, want to show his new team and he dominated NYY earlier in season, but NYY not been striking out as much lately, have seen him, and have been strong against lefties of late - this offense we'd thought take a step back since trade deadline, but hasn't. yet...Eovaldi probably suck at Boston as usual, but then I thought he would vs Baltimore last month and on the road at TB, but didn't. Thought he'd be fine vs Mets and wasn't, and vs SF and we was - you get the picture....I'd take the over and Boston if I had to bet, but I would not be surprised to see a 4-3 final score, either team winning...and then you have Buster Olney reporting that the Padres hid some medical issue about Pomeranz from BoSox...am liking the over more now...
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...id_red_sox_get_damaged_goods_in_drew_pomeranz
The Angels have had difficulty scoring runs lately, and that's hard to believe with a lineup consisting of Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, etc. However, since July 17 the Halos have managed three or fewer runs in eight of their past 17 games while allowing five or more runs in 10 of the past 17. The Halos have really gone in the tank, losing their past five on the road, and each of their past four against right-handed starting pitching. They're also 7-19 in their past 26 road games vs. RHP, and 7-15 in their past 22 interleague battles, including 3-9 in their past 12 against NL Central foes.
Hottest team: Braves (4-0 past four, 6-1 past seven)
The Braves have caught fire on the road, winning four in a row by an average of 6.3 runs scored to just 3.0 runs allowed over the past four games. Atlanta has won four in a row against National League Central Division teams, and they have won six in a row on the road against right-handed starters. In addition, they're 5-1 in their past six games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP over 1.30, which Chase Anderson certainly qualifies. On the flip side, the Brewers have dropped five of their past six games overall, and they're just 9-23 in their past 32 games vs. RHP. Milwaukee is also just 6-13 in the past 19 starts with Anderson on the hill.
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -195
Investment Advice: I recommend risking at least 1/2 of your wager on the run line.
Recently-acquired Ricky Nolasco toes the rubber for the Angels with a 5.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 22 starts this season, together with a 5.16 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road and a 6.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last three outings. Nolasco's peripherals are equally disappointing: 4.47 FIP, 4.45 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA with a 6.68 K/9 rate and a 1.45 HR/9 rate.
The 33-year-old posted a 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 5.27 FIP and a 5.43 xFIP in 28.0 innings of work in July, and currently owns a 5.32 ERA, 6.81 FIP and a 5.38 xFIP in the second half of 2016 (22.0 IP). Those metrics are are further backed by a declining strikeout rate (4.91 K/9 vs. 7.04 K/9 in first half) and rising home run rate (2.45 HR/9 vs. 1.24 HR/9 in first half).
Even more disturbing is the fact that Nolasco's second-half numbers are poor despite being aided by an unsustainable .194 BABIP. Meanwhile, Chicago right-hander Jason Hammel has been outstanding at Wrigley Field where he is 6-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The 33-year-old has also been strong in the second half, posting a perfect 4-0 record with a 1.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 3.34 FIP in 24.0 innings.
I shied away from investing on Hammel at the outset of the second half in light of his career 5.05 ERA in the second stanza of the regular season. However, Hammel has dispelled those concerns by allowing just four earned runs over 24 innings (4 starts). The Cubs are 8-2 in Hammel's last ten home starts, 15-5 in his last 20 starts during game 2 of a series and 6-1 in his last seven starts with extended rest (7+ days). Chicago's bullpen has also been unhittable of late with a 0.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games.
In contrast, Los Angeles relievers have garnered a 6.85 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games, together with a 4.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road and a 4.33 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP versus National League opponents. Finally, the Cubs are 18-6 in their last 24 games overall, including winning 7 straight.
Matchup to watch: Athletics vs. Orioles
The Athletics are giving the Orioles fits at O.co Coliseum, winning each of the first two games to drop the O's into a tie for first place. The struggles on the road are nothing new for the O's, as Baltimore has won just four of their past 14 games away from Camden Yards. They've been unable to take advantage of the dregs of the league, either, winning just two of their past eight road games against a team with a losing record. Baltimore is also 4-13 in their past 17 against AL West foes. The A's have won five straight against AL East teams, and they're 5-0 in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record.
POD: MLB 1ST 5 FULL INN - 1H Miami Spread -0.5 +125 (Samardzija/Phelps) 12:10 PM EST[1952]
My record this thread since May 1: 56-35-4, +15.09 units (if risked 1 unit on each pick)...2-0 this week
We know how bad Samardzija has been lately, and on the road all season, and vs winning teams..and how The Fish have such a strong consistent offense of late...but the bet is not about The Shark or Miami's bats, it's about why "David Phelps is the Next Danny Duffy"
Phelps is just off his 1st start of the season, blanking the high flying Rockies at Coors for 4.1 innings. This was not unexpected. As the article linked to above explains, his new found (for this season) improved bullpen velocity he was able to maintain in his 1st start, and use his new cutter to fine effect, and then keep ahead of the batters the second time around with his changeup and curveball. In other words, he was able to still pitch lights out, as he has all season, as a stretched-out long reliever in a limited starter role....
For 5 inning bet, that's all he has to do today. Keep on repeating what he has been doing since April. Tho an extra advantage for us (that's what we need to qualify for a POD bet), Phelps will be pumped to be in the spotlight this day, in his 1st home start, helping his team who are desperate for a 5th starter and have no wiggle room to spare as they try to keep pace to win that wildcard playoff spot....Phelps is on a 9.5 inning scoreless streak now, watch for that streak to continue some additional innings.....with this HP ump, and Stanton out, the under is also a fine bet....and Miami to score first is a good prop bet...
