7:10 PM MLB [954] New York Mets -1.5 +105 ( R Weber - R / B Colon - R )
7:10 PM MLB [955] Washington Nationals -1.5 -120 ( M Scherzer - R / T Koehler - R )
8:05 PM MLB [957] TOTAL o9+100 (Cincinnati Reds vrs Chicago Cubs) (Stephenson/Lackey)
3:35 PM MLB [965] Houston Astros -152 ( C McHugh - R / D Mengden - R )
8:00 PM NBA Playoffs [603] Seattle Storm -2.5 -155 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 19 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-162, -33.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Marquez is supplanting veteran left-hander Jorge De La Rosa in the rotation for what?s left of the season, but manager Walt Weiss is hesitant to stick a label on Marquez?s turn in the rotation.
?I don?t know if I would label it a tryout,? Weiss said. ?My feeling is that you are auditioning every day you are in uniform. So I think it?s an opportunity to get a look at him. We have seen glimpses of him out of the bullpen, but to see him make a couple starts at the major-league level helps you make assessments going into next season.?
Marquez, a 21-year-old from Venezuela, was a September call-up and made his debut Sept. 8, pitching 2⅓ innings of relief against the Padres. He has made three appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 5.06 ERA.
He was the Eastern League pitcher of the year, going 9-6 with a 2.85 ERA and recording 126 strikeouts in 21 starts at Hartford, Conn. in his first season in Double-A. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque and then to the Rockies. In 26 combined starts at Double-A and Triple-A, Marquez went 11-6 with a 3.13 ERA in 166⅔ innings, striking out 155 batters while walking only 39.
Houston is 26-4 in McHughs last 30 starts vs. the American League West...Oakland is 4-15 in their last 19 vs. the American League West
Toronto @ SEATTLE
Toronto -111 over SEATTLE
We?re all about value and now Toronto?s best starter, Aaron Sanchez is the smallest price of the three starters in this series over Seattle?s worst starter in this series, Felix Hernandez. That prompts us to step in. Felix Hernandez used to be a sure-fire rotation anchor worth betting on every time he took the ball and that decade long reputation has him overvalued by a lot. King Felix has lost it. His skills have been terrible against lefthanders with 5.7 K?s/9, 4.8 BB?s/9 and a xERA of 5.92. The only reason he has a 3.02 ERA against them has been due to an extremely fortunate 89% strand rate, which one cannot bank on continuing. Hernandez?s prior dominance against righties is on shaky footing too, as his skills against them are more average than good this season. Hernandez has a BB/K split of 14/16 in his last 27 frames. His groundball rate of 38% over that span is the worst rate he?s ever posted in his career over a five-game stretch. The window to sell high on Hernandez is closing quickly so don?t miss out, as he?s completely lost it and may never get it back.
Aaron Sanchez does a nice job of limiting HR?s by keeping the ball on the ground and inducing grounders with three different pitches: sinker (63%), curve ball (66%), and change-up (50%). Throwing more first pitch strikes and more strikes overall, has significantly improved his control and command but his swinging strike rate is still well below league average and further swing and miss rate gains are likely necessary to maintain his current K-rate level. Sanchez?s out pitch this year has been the curve ball (16% swing and miss), but that is his only true swing-and-miss offering. The gap between ERA (3.17) and xERA (3.78) is largely due to favorable hit and strand rates, but Sanchez has proven tough to hit throughout his career and his extreme groundball arsenal may tend to strand a high rate of runners via the double play. Sanchez has been a source of frustration for opposing hitters in 2016. With a solid base of mid-90s velocity and extreme groundball stuff, Sanchez is a strong bet to thrive in parks like the one he?ll pitch in here.
Toronto loves Safeco and Safeco loves Toronto. The place is swarming with Jays fans in every section and it almost feels like the Jays have home field advantage. That can?t feel good for the Mariners, who are forced to watch and listen to all the applause the Jays receive whenever they score a run, get a hit or record an out. There has even been standing ovations for a couple of Toronto?s players. Here?s a Seattle squad in the heat of a pennant race that has 15,000 tickets available for Toronto fans making the short trip across the border. Again, that can?t feel good to the M?s players while it must feel absolutely great for the Jays players to go on the road and have an entire stadium filled with fans. Toronto has responded by outscoring the Mariners 13-3 in the first two games of this series and its domination very likely continues here.
Hottest team: Red Sox (8-2 last 10)
Boston has separated itself from Baltimore in the AL East standings after grabbing the first two games of their series at Camden Yards. The Red Sox have won the first two contests by exact 5-2 scores, as David Ortiz blasted a huge three-run homer in the seventh inning on Tuesday to help Boston improve to 6-2 at Camden Yards this season. Boston owns a four-game cushion over Toronto in the AL East, while Baltimore sits five games out of first place. The Red Sox have won all three of Clay Buchholz?s September starts, as the right-hander takes the mound tonight opposite Baltimore?s Ubaldo Jimenez.
Under is 25-12 in BOS last 37 road games...Under is 45-20-1 in BAL last 66 overall.
Boston @ BALTIMORE
Boston -101 over BALTIMORE
Is Clay Buchholz back from the dead? After a dreadful first half, Buchholz resided on most fantasy league waiver wires by mid-season. Don?t look now, but Buchholz checks in with a 4-1 record and a sub-4.00 ERA in the second half. The major difference between the first and second half thus far is a big swing in his hr/f to the good. That bodes well against the Orioles, an all or nothing team. Another problem for Buchholz in the first half was a lack of control. Since July, he's throwing a lot more first-pitch strikes, which bodes better for his future. With a good swing and miss rate of 11% and 21 K?s in his last 25 innings, perhaps Clay Buchholz is on the verge of rebounding. We also know that Boston controls an option on Buchholz and there?s a good chance they?ll decline it and make him a free agent. Money has a way of motivating people. Still, Buchholz cannot be fully trusted just yet but he can be trusted more than Ubaldo Jimenez.
From time to time, Jimenez will toss a game that reminds us of why we used to speculate on him. Predictably, most of his follow up games reminds us why we shouldn?t. A so-so swing and miss rate combined with too many walks (65 in 130 frames), which has become a chronic issue, reveals the continued risk in his profile. Jimenez has a 5.94 ERA this year. The scope of the problem can be seen in his 10%/70% dominant start/disaster start split. Jimenez can?t be counted on to be a consistent producer and while he?ll likely have some decent starts, waiting for them or hoping for them is not worth the risk unless we're taking back a big tag. That?s not the case here, as Jimenez and the fraudulent Orioles are favored.
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 10
This will likely be a popular play on Wednesday night, but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one.
Needless to say, this is a big spot for the Orioles as they try to get back at the Red Sox following consecutive losses, noting that the O's did take two of three in Boston just last week.
The pitching matchup tonight certainly lends itself to a high-scoring affair as Clay Buchholz takes the mound for the Sox against Ubaldo Jimenez of the Orioles.
Buchholz has been a weak link in Boston's rotation all season, going 7-10 with an ERA north of five an da 1.40 WHIP. He's also managed only 83 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings of work. The Orioles will certainly be focused on breaking out of their mini-slump at the dish, and Buchholz would seem to be the perfect opposing starter to be facing.
Jimenez hasn't been any better for the O's this season - in fact, he's been considerably worse than Buchholz, going 7-11 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Sure, his strikeout numbers are higher than those of Buchholz, but he's also issued more walks. With the Red Sox rolling offensively, I don't see Jimenez standing in their way.
We're dealing with a relatively high total here, but off after back-to-back 'unders' to open this series, I believe it's warranted, and could even be a shade higher.
9 of last 10 team wins with Colon pitcher were by 2 runs or more
Over is 36-14-1 in ATL last 51 overall.
Ryan Weber will make his 16th appearance and second start of the season, aiming for his second win. Weber pitched well in his latest appearance, allowing just one run on two hits in 4.1 innings in a long relief role against the Nationals, finishing with the no decision. The young right hander has been pitching in a relief role along with his one start and has struggled, conceding 19 runs in 31 innings pitched giving him a 5.46 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP. He has had a hard time in his 8.1 career innings pitched against the Mets, allowing seven runs.
Over is 19-6-1 in KC last 26 overall.
White Sox vs. Phillies
Play: Under 7?
The White Sox (72-78, 31-45 road) are fading fast. They?ve lost four straight due mainly to a meltdown by the pitching staff which has allowed 25 runs in the last three games. Things won?t get any easier for Chicago which heads to Cleveland for a three-game set against the Central Division leading Indians.
The Phillies (67-83, 34-42 home) took Tuesday?s opener 7-6 behind Odubel Herrera, who has emerged as the leader of a young team. He belted his 15th home run among three hits in the victory and is now 15 for 28 with six RBI?s and nine runs scored in the last seven games.
Chris Sale (16-8, 3.03 ERA) notched his major league-leading sixth complete game and went at least eight frames for the sixth straight start when he allowed three earned runs with 10 strikeouts to snap a four-start winless streak. Sale is seeing Philadelphia for the first time in his career and is 6-3 with a 2.80 ERA in interleague play.
Jerad Eickhoff (10-14, 3.74 ERA) faced the White Sox on August 24 and notched the win with a solid six inning effort.
Philadelphia is 19-9 to the UNDER with Eickhoff on the mound. The Phillies are 42-34 to the UNDER at home and 5-3-2 to the low side in their past 10 overall.
The UNDER is 13-4-4 overall in Philadelphia?s past 21 games.
The OVER is 9-2 in the Phillies last 11 interleague games while the White Sox are 7-1 to the high side in their last eight road games.
The White Sox are 2-6 in the last eight series meetings.
Hottest pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees (13-4, 2.97 ERA)
New York snapped a five-game losing streak in Tuesday?s 5-2 triumph at Tampa Bay, erasing an early 2-0 deficit to improve to 6-2 in the past eight matchups against the Rays. Tanaka has allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive outings, including giving up four hits and one earned run in seven innings against the Red Sox his last time out. However, the Yankees couldn?t hold on to a late 5-1 lead in a shocking 7-5 defeat at Fenway Park. New York has won all four of Tanaka?s starts against Tampa Bay this season, including tossing seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 triumph at Tropicana Field in May.
Yankees -130
New York is showing great value here on the road against the Rays Wednesday. The Yankees put an end to their 5-game skid with a 5-3 win on Tuesday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their ace Masahiro Tanaka on the mound. Tanaka is 13-4 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 30 starts this season. He's been at his best on the road, where he has a 2.20 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 15 starts. He also comes in on fire, posting a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts.
That's not all. Tanaka has owned the Rays in his career. He's made 7 starts against them and the Yankees have won all 7 with him getting a decision in 5 of those. In those 7 starts, he's posting a sizzling 2.42 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. Tampa Bay counters with Alex Cobb. He's a big name, but has only made 3 starts this season and that comes after missing all of last year. I just don't trust Cobb at this point and even if he pitches well, I don't think he can match Tanaka in this one.
Yankees are 16-3 in Tanaka's last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 or more, 24-9 in his last 33 starts after a win and 12-3 in his last 15 starts when he comes in working on 5 or 6 days of rest.
Coldest pitcher: Tom Koehler, Marlins (9-11, 3.96 ERA)
Miami has managed to hold off Washington in a pair of one-run victories at Marlins Park, but the task will be tougher tonight. Not only do the Marlins face Max Scherzer, but they send out Koehler, who is winless in his last five trips to the mound. Two of the five losses came in walk-off fashion, but the right-hander didn?t last past the fifth inning three times in this stretch. Koehler hasn?t faced Washington since May, as the Marlins are 1-2 in his three starts against the Nationals this season in spite of him giving up four earned runs in 17 innings of work.
Nats have won 9 of last 10 Scherzer starts, of which 7 were by 2 runs or more
CIN are 9-28 in the last 37 meetings vs Cubs.
TEX are 48-21 in their last 69 home games.
Biggest UNDER run: Angels (7-1 last eight)
Los Angeles has dropped a pair of heartbreakers to Texas the last two nights, losing each game by one run apiece. The Angels have allowed nine runs in the past four games to the Rangers and Blue Jays, two of the tougher lineups in baseball, which included giving up one run in the final two games last weekend against Toronto. Jered Weaver isn?t the pitcher he was back in 2012 when he won 20 games, but the Angels? right-hander has performed well of late by allowing two earned runs or less in four of his past five starts, while finishing UNDER the total in seven of his previous eight trips to the mound.
Angels at Rangers
Pick: Over
This is a great park for hitters and the Angels go with aging Jered Weaver (11-12, 5.17 ERA) struggling through a bad season. He has a 5.50 ERA on the road. The Over is 7-3-2 in Weaver's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. He faces Texas, one of the best offenses in baseball, on an 8-2 run over the total at home. Texas is on a 14-6 run over the total overall and goes with Derek Holland (4.93 ERA). Holland has been roughed up in each of his last two starts, allowing a combined 17 hits and nine earned runs across 9.2 innings. And the Over is 5-0 when Holland faces the American League West.
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Pittsburgh
The Pirates won 6-3 last night at Milwaukee, their fifth win in their last six but time is running out on Pittsburgh?s playoff chances. As of Wednesday morning, the Cards, Giants and Mets are all 80-71, fighting for those two NL wild card spots. Are the Marlins (four back) and the Pirates (4 1/2 games back) still in it? The 68-83 Brewers played before sell-out crowds over the weekend at Wrigley Field against the Cubs but are now back at Miller Park, where the stadium was just about half-full Tuesday night as the Brewers opened their final homestand of the season.
The Pirates opted to skip Chad Kuhl's turn in the rotation after he lasted only two innings vs St Louis back on Sep 5. It seemed to work, as he responded with six strong innings of two-run ball against Philadelphia in a 15-2 victory on Sep 14 to halt a four-start winless drought. Kuhl (4-3, 3.97 ERA) opened his big league career with the Pirates winning his first six starts but the team is just 2-3 over his last five. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson (8-14, 4.42) began the 2016 season 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA through his first 11 appearances but he?s gone 3-11 with a 5.57 ERA over his last 19 starts (Brewers are 5-14!).
Nelson is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA in nine starts vs the Pirates (Brewers are 6-3) but I don?t look for his current 2016 struggles to end in this one. Kuhl has shown promise and it?s no small thing that he?s only allowed more than three ERs in just ONE of his previous 12 starts in 2016. Pirates won?t likely earn a wild card berth in 2016 (after three straight appearances) but Pittsburgh is the play in this one.
This will be a physical test for Kenta Maeda, pitching on regular four days' rest in back-to-back starts, something management has allowed only three times (he?s 1-2 in those).
Friday, September 23rd:
TCU -13 1st Half
The Horned Frogs have a date at home with Oklahoma next Saturday which sets up to being an elimination game of sorts. Since joining the Big 12, the Horned Frogs check in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the week before battling the Sooners. Two of those wins and covers just so happened to come against SMU whom they paid a visit to each time.
SMU has played against one of the more laughable schedules in the country (91/128), yet has only managed to put just over 25 points per game on the board and given up just as many. The defense can?t defend the pass and that?s where the Horned Frogs excel with Kenny Hill already going off for over 1000 yards and accounting for 10 total touchdowns. The dual threat is in line for a huge showing this evening if the Mustangs continue to turn the ball over better than two times per game.
Look for TCU to pile up the points in hopes of putting it into cruise control in the second half to give the No. 1s time off to rest up for next week?s huge brawl with Boomer Sooner. SMU?s wilted under the Friday night lights covering one of its last five appearances, and stands just 6-15-1 ATS the last 22 times it ran up against a Big 12 opponent. TCU has bludgeoned SMU by the aggregate score of 160-54 over the L/3 meetings, but backing the Horny Toads in the first half looks to be the way to go in this matchup.
USC / Utah Under 46.5
Utah?s offense has been far from impressive scoring 24 points on Southern Utah, 20 points against BYU and while they did put up 34 points last week it came against my #118 defense of San Jose St. The Utes defense however has done what was expected holding Southern Utah and San Jose St to 8.5 PPG and allowing only 328 yards and 19 points to my #48 offense, BYU. USC meanwhile is already playing their third TOP 15 defense so we basically know what to expect. The Trojans totaled a combined 16 points versus Alabama and Stanford and now they travel for a second straight week. USC HC Clay Helton has also made a QB change naming freshman Sam Darnold this week?s starter over Max Brown and while Rice-Eccles Stadium is a very tough place to make your first ever start the level of difficulty is amplified by doing so on a short week. Both teams prefer to run the ball and against FBS foes USC has run 67 and 61 plays on offense while Utah has run 65 and 67 plays. While totals can move several points the current number on this game is 46.5 and it?s a valid play at any O/U line of 43.5 or more.
Saturday, September 24th:
Louisiana Tech at Middle Tenn St
Play: Middle Tenn St -5.5
Middle Tennessee State possesses a potent offense that is averaging 40.0 points per game and 537 total yards at 6.6 yards per play this season. The Blue Raiders' attack is being coached by offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who served in the same capacity at California from 2013 to 2015. Franklin is widely regarded as a quarterback guru after developing Jared Goff into the #1 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft.
Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill is having a solid 2016 campaign, completing 65.5% of his pass attempts for 7.7 yards per pass play with 11 touchdowns. Stockstill has one of the conference's best wide receiving units to throw to, with offensive player of the year candidate Richie James leading the way with 28 receptions for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Blue Raiders should have success moving the chains through the air against a subpar Louisiana Tech secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.5% of their pass attempts for 8.3 yards per pass play. The Bulldogs have also allowed 40.0 points per game in their first two road games this season, with opposing quarterbacks completing 70.8% of their pass attempts for 10.2 yards per pass play.
Middle Tennessee State also boasts a very good ground game led by Mississippi transfer I'Tavius Mathers, who has garnered 284 rushing yards on 47 carries with four touchdowns (6.0 yards per carry).
The scheduling situation also favors Middle Tennessee State as the Bulldogs are traveling for the third time in four weeks and are coming off an exhausting 59-45 loss at Texas Tech last week. From a technical standpoint, the Blue Raiders are a profitable 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in September and 10-3-1 ATS in conference home games.
UNLV -14.5
Two programs heading in opposite directions clash at Sam Boyd Stadium on Saturday evening as UNLV plays host to Idaho.
Idaho is a program that is in decline, which actually isn't easy for a team that has had very little success going back several seasons. But that's the only way to describe the state of the Vandals at this point. Idaho is now in what will be its next to last season as an FBS member. They're dropping down to the FCS in 2018, as they simply don't have the resources to compete. It's the first time in more than 30 years that a program will voluntarily be drop down in class.
It seems pretty clear that enthusiasm is at an all-time low for this school as far as football is concerned, and that seems to be the case on the field as well based on the early results. Idaho managed to eke out a win over Montana State to get things started. But they've since been annihilated by Washington State and Washington, and now the Vandals have to play a third consecutive road game against a hungry UNLV squad eager to get back in the win column after a couple of losses.
The Rebels opened with a blowout win over Jackson State and acquitted themselves well in a loss to UCLA as well as in the first half last week at Central Michigan. The second half was not good for UNLV as they appeared to wear out and the Chippewas ended up running them out.
I would expect a solid bounce back from UNLV here. Tony Sanchez is not a coach who appears averse to making statements when he has the opportunity, and he should definitely have that opportunity here. There are certainly some issues on this team that still need to be addressed, not the least of which is a little more accuracy from QB1 Johnny Stanton. Those numbers should improve here as Idaho is surrendering a completion percentage of more than 65%.
On paper, I made UNLV -16.5 here, so I'm not getting ripped off as far as the price is concerned. But I'm also bullish on the situation for the Rebels here. This is obviously a must win for the Rebs if they're to have a chance at snaring a bowl bid this season. But it's also a great chance to look impressive against a visitor that figures to be a little worn down after getting thumped by a pair of superior PAC-12 opponents. I also just wonder whether the interest and energy levels for Idaho will wane if they fall behind by any kind of margin. Should that happen, let's just say I have a great deal of confidence that the Rebels will keep on scoring.
UNLV has rarely found itself in the heavy chalk role but I believe it's more than justified here and I've got no problem asking them to blow away the visiting Vandals. I also believe there's more chance this line goes up if anything from where it is now, so I'm going ahead and laying the points with UNLV right now
Iowa -13
Hawkeyes got beat last weak to N. Dak St.....The jack rabbits are very good and could beat a bunch of top teams IMO....It looks bad, but overall it will fuel the fire for the Hawkeyes here....Iowa looked great the first two weeks and actually beat two teams who are decent...On the other hand Rutgers is terrible....The Rutgers offense and defense won't hold up here....Even at home the Iowa buzzsaw is in effect....Rutgers played one good team and that was Washington on the road....Scarlett Knights got smashed in that game....Rutgers actually got exposed last week Vs. New Mexico and some things just showed in the game....Rutgers isn't that good and Iowa should be willing to get back on track in a major way....This rated in a strong 2** play as my number was -18....I smell a blowout.
BYU +7
I'll place a small wager on BYU here....My big thing going into last week was this team plays close games....Same thing again last week...That makes 3 games decided by 3 points or less in a row....I like the fact that this game is in Andover and not in W.V.....BYU coming off a loss should be looking to redeem themselves, but I worry they might be a bit tired....Still the Cougars have faced some very tough competition and they played well on the defensive side of the ball in all 3.....Cougars still got Taysom Hill and he has yet to really get going...This WV defense might be just what the doctor ordered to get him back on stride today....WV hasn't been tested from what I see on the schedule...They beat up on Missouri and Youngstown...So no real challenge compared to the three games BYU has faced....WV not a bad team and I actually like the offense for them.....The defense not so much...I think these teams are a bit closer to each other then a full 7 points...I'll take the more tested team in the Cougars who tend to play razor close games.
7:10 PM MLB [955] Washington Nationals -1.5 -120 ( M Scherzer - R / T Koehler - R )
8:05 PM MLB [957] TOTAL o9+100 (Cincinnati Reds vrs Chicago Cubs) (Stephenson/Lackey)
3:35 PM MLB [965] Houston Astros -152 ( C McHugh - R / D Mengden - R )
8:00 PM NBA Playoffs [603] Seattle Storm -2.5 -155 (B+2)
1 unit bet pays 19 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-162, -33.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Marquez is supplanting veteran left-hander Jorge De La Rosa in the rotation for what?s left of the season, but manager Walt Weiss is hesitant to stick a label on Marquez?s turn in the rotation.
?I don?t know if I would label it a tryout,? Weiss said. ?My feeling is that you are auditioning every day you are in uniform. So I think it?s an opportunity to get a look at him. We have seen glimpses of him out of the bullpen, but to see him make a couple starts at the major-league level helps you make assessments going into next season.?
Marquez, a 21-year-old from Venezuela, was a September call-up and made his debut Sept. 8, pitching 2⅓ innings of relief against the Padres. He has made three appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 5.06 ERA.
He was the Eastern League pitcher of the year, going 9-6 with a 2.85 ERA and recording 126 strikeouts in 21 starts at Hartford, Conn. in his first season in Double-A. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque and then to the Rockies. In 26 combined starts at Double-A and Triple-A, Marquez went 11-6 with a 3.13 ERA in 166⅔ innings, striking out 155 batters while walking only 39.
Houston is 26-4 in McHughs last 30 starts vs. the American League West...Oakland is 4-15 in their last 19 vs. the American League West
Toronto @ SEATTLE
Toronto -111 over SEATTLE
We?re all about value and now Toronto?s best starter, Aaron Sanchez is the smallest price of the three starters in this series over Seattle?s worst starter in this series, Felix Hernandez. That prompts us to step in. Felix Hernandez used to be a sure-fire rotation anchor worth betting on every time he took the ball and that decade long reputation has him overvalued by a lot. King Felix has lost it. His skills have been terrible against lefthanders with 5.7 K?s/9, 4.8 BB?s/9 and a xERA of 5.92. The only reason he has a 3.02 ERA against them has been due to an extremely fortunate 89% strand rate, which one cannot bank on continuing. Hernandez?s prior dominance against righties is on shaky footing too, as his skills against them are more average than good this season. Hernandez has a BB/K split of 14/16 in his last 27 frames. His groundball rate of 38% over that span is the worst rate he?s ever posted in his career over a five-game stretch. The window to sell high on Hernandez is closing quickly so don?t miss out, as he?s completely lost it and may never get it back.
Aaron Sanchez does a nice job of limiting HR?s by keeping the ball on the ground and inducing grounders with three different pitches: sinker (63%), curve ball (66%), and change-up (50%). Throwing more first pitch strikes and more strikes overall, has significantly improved his control and command but his swinging strike rate is still well below league average and further swing and miss rate gains are likely necessary to maintain his current K-rate level. Sanchez?s out pitch this year has been the curve ball (16% swing and miss), but that is his only true swing-and-miss offering. The gap between ERA (3.17) and xERA (3.78) is largely due to favorable hit and strand rates, but Sanchez has proven tough to hit throughout his career and his extreme groundball arsenal may tend to strand a high rate of runners via the double play. Sanchez has been a source of frustration for opposing hitters in 2016. With a solid base of mid-90s velocity and extreme groundball stuff, Sanchez is a strong bet to thrive in parks like the one he?ll pitch in here.
Toronto loves Safeco and Safeco loves Toronto. The place is swarming with Jays fans in every section and it almost feels like the Jays have home field advantage. That can?t feel good for the Mariners, who are forced to watch and listen to all the applause the Jays receive whenever they score a run, get a hit or record an out. There has even been standing ovations for a couple of Toronto?s players. Here?s a Seattle squad in the heat of a pennant race that has 15,000 tickets available for Toronto fans making the short trip across the border. Again, that can?t feel good to the M?s players while it must feel absolutely great for the Jays players to go on the road and have an entire stadium filled with fans. Toronto has responded by outscoring the Mariners 13-3 in the first two games of this series and its domination very likely continues here.
Hottest team: Red Sox (8-2 last 10)
Boston has separated itself from Baltimore in the AL East standings after grabbing the first two games of their series at Camden Yards. The Red Sox have won the first two contests by exact 5-2 scores, as David Ortiz blasted a huge three-run homer in the seventh inning on Tuesday to help Boston improve to 6-2 at Camden Yards this season. Boston owns a four-game cushion over Toronto in the AL East, while Baltimore sits five games out of first place. The Red Sox have won all three of Clay Buchholz?s September starts, as the right-hander takes the mound tonight opposite Baltimore?s Ubaldo Jimenez.
Under is 25-12 in BOS last 37 road games...Under is 45-20-1 in BAL last 66 overall.
Boston @ BALTIMORE
Boston -101 over BALTIMORE
Is Clay Buchholz back from the dead? After a dreadful first half, Buchholz resided on most fantasy league waiver wires by mid-season. Don?t look now, but Buchholz checks in with a 4-1 record and a sub-4.00 ERA in the second half. The major difference between the first and second half thus far is a big swing in his hr/f to the good. That bodes well against the Orioles, an all or nothing team. Another problem for Buchholz in the first half was a lack of control. Since July, he's throwing a lot more first-pitch strikes, which bodes better for his future. With a good swing and miss rate of 11% and 21 K?s in his last 25 innings, perhaps Clay Buchholz is on the verge of rebounding. We also know that Boston controls an option on Buchholz and there?s a good chance they?ll decline it and make him a free agent. Money has a way of motivating people. Still, Buchholz cannot be fully trusted just yet but he can be trusted more than Ubaldo Jimenez.
From time to time, Jimenez will toss a game that reminds us of why we used to speculate on him. Predictably, most of his follow up games reminds us why we shouldn?t. A so-so swing and miss rate combined with too many walks (65 in 130 frames), which has become a chronic issue, reveals the continued risk in his profile. Jimenez has a 5.94 ERA this year. The scope of the problem can be seen in his 10%/70% dominant start/disaster start split. Jimenez can?t be counted on to be a consistent producer and while he?ll likely have some decent starts, waiting for them or hoping for them is not worth the risk unless we're taking back a big tag. That?s not the case here, as Jimenez and the fraudulent Orioles are favored.
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 10
This will likely be a popular play on Wednesday night, but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one.
Needless to say, this is a big spot for the Orioles as they try to get back at the Red Sox following consecutive losses, noting that the O's did take two of three in Boston just last week.
The pitching matchup tonight certainly lends itself to a high-scoring affair as Clay Buchholz takes the mound for the Sox against Ubaldo Jimenez of the Orioles.
Buchholz has been a weak link in Boston's rotation all season, going 7-10 with an ERA north of five an da 1.40 WHIP. He's also managed only 83 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings of work. The Orioles will certainly be focused on breaking out of their mini-slump at the dish, and Buchholz would seem to be the perfect opposing starter to be facing.
Jimenez hasn't been any better for the O's this season - in fact, he's been considerably worse than Buchholz, going 7-11 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Sure, his strikeout numbers are higher than those of Buchholz, but he's also issued more walks. With the Red Sox rolling offensively, I don't see Jimenez standing in their way.
We're dealing with a relatively high total here, but off after back-to-back 'unders' to open this series, I believe it's warranted, and could even be a shade higher.
9 of last 10 team wins with Colon pitcher were by 2 runs or more
Over is 36-14-1 in ATL last 51 overall.
Ryan Weber will make his 16th appearance and second start of the season, aiming for his second win. Weber pitched well in his latest appearance, allowing just one run on two hits in 4.1 innings in a long relief role against the Nationals, finishing with the no decision. The young right hander has been pitching in a relief role along with his one start and has struggled, conceding 19 runs in 31 innings pitched giving him a 5.46 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP. He has had a hard time in his 8.1 career innings pitched against the Mets, allowing seven runs.
Over is 19-6-1 in KC last 26 overall.
White Sox vs. Phillies
Play: Under 7?
The White Sox (72-78, 31-45 road) are fading fast. They?ve lost four straight due mainly to a meltdown by the pitching staff which has allowed 25 runs in the last three games. Things won?t get any easier for Chicago which heads to Cleveland for a three-game set against the Central Division leading Indians.
The Phillies (67-83, 34-42 home) took Tuesday?s opener 7-6 behind Odubel Herrera, who has emerged as the leader of a young team. He belted his 15th home run among three hits in the victory and is now 15 for 28 with six RBI?s and nine runs scored in the last seven games.
Chris Sale (16-8, 3.03 ERA) notched his major league-leading sixth complete game and went at least eight frames for the sixth straight start when he allowed three earned runs with 10 strikeouts to snap a four-start winless streak. Sale is seeing Philadelphia for the first time in his career and is 6-3 with a 2.80 ERA in interleague play.
Jerad Eickhoff (10-14, 3.74 ERA) faced the White Sox on August 24 and notched the win with a solid six inning effort.
Philadelphia is 19-9 to the UNDER with Eickhoff on the mound. The Phillies are 42-34 to the UNDER at home and 5-3-2 to the low side in their past 10 overall.
The UNDER is 13-4-4 overall in Philadelphia?s past 21 games.
The OVER is 9-2 in the Phillies last 11 interleague games while the White Sox are 7-1 to the high side in their last eight road games.
The White Sox are 2-6 in the last eight series meetings.
Hottest pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees (13-4, 2.97 ERA)
New York snapped a five-game losing streak in Tuesday?s 5-2 triumph at Tampa Bay, erasing an early 2-0 deficit to improve to 6-2 in the past eight matchups against the Rays. Tanaka has allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive outings, including giving up four hits and one earned run in seven innings against the Red Sox his last time out. However, the Yankees couldn?t hold on to a late 5-1 lead in a shocking 7-5 defeat at Fenway Park. New York has won all four of Tanaka?s starts against Tampa Bay this season, including tossing seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 triumph at Tropicana Field in May.
Yankees -130
New York is showing great value here on the road against the Rays Wednesday. The Yankees put an end to their 5-game skid with a 5-3 win on Tuesday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their ace Masahiro Tanaka on the mound. Tanaka is 13-4 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 30 starts this season. He's been at his best on the road, where he has a 2.20 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 15 starts. He also comes in on fire, posting a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts.
That's not all. Tanaka has owned the Rays in his career. He's made 7 starts against them and the Yankees have won all 7 with him getting a decision in 5 of those. In those 7 starts, he's posting a sizzling 2.42 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. Tampa Bay counters with Alex Cobb. He's a big name, but has only made 3 starts this season and that comes after missing all of last year. I just don't trust Cobb at this point and even if he pitches well, I don't think he can match Tanaka in this one.
Yankees are 16-3 in Tanaka's last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 or more, 24-9 in his last 33 starts after a win and 12-3 in his last 15 starts when he comes in working on 5 or 6 days of rest.
Coldest pitcher: Tom Koehler, Marlins (9-11, 3.96 ERA)
Miami has managed to hold off Washington in a pair of one-run victories at Marlins Park, but the task will be tougher tonight. Not only do the Marlins face Max Scherzer, but they send out Koehler, who is winless in his last five trips to the mound. Two of the five losses came in walk-off fashion, but the right-hander didn?t last past the fifth inning three times in this stretch. Koehler hasn?t faced Washington since May, as the Marlins are 1-2 in his three starts against the Nationals this season in spite of him giving up four earned runs in 17 innings of work.
Nats have won 9 of last 10 Scherzer starts, of which 7 were by 2 runs or more
CIN are 9-28 in the last 37 meetings vs Cubs.
TEX are 48-21 in their last 69 home games.
Biggest UNDER run: Angels (7-1 last eight)
Los Angeles has dropped a pair of heartbreakers to Texas the last two nights, losing each game by one run apiece. The Angels have allowed nine runs in the past four games to the Rangers and Blue Jays, two of the tougher lineups in baseball, which included giving up one run in the final two games last weekend against Toronto. Jered Weaver isn?t the pitcher he was back in 2012 when he won 20 games, but the Angels? right-hander has performed well of late by allowing two earned runs or less in four of his past five starts, while finishing UNDER the total in seven of his previous eight trips to the mound.
Angels at Rangers
Pick: Over
This is a great park for hitters and the Angels go with aging Jered Weaver (11-12, 5.17 ERA) struggling through a bad season. He has a 5.50 ERA on the road. The Over is 7-3-2 in Weaver's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. He faces Texas, one of the best offenses in baseball, on an 8-2 run over the total at home. Texas is on a 14-6 run over the total overall and goes with Derek Holland (4.93 ERA). Holland has been roughed up in each of his last two starts, allowing a combined 17 hits and nine earned runs across 9.2 innings. And the Over is 5-0 when Holland faces the American League West.
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Pittsburgh
The Pirates won 6-3 last night at Milwaukee, their fifth win in their last six but time is running out on Pittsburgh?s playoff chances. As of Wednesday morning, the Cards, Giants and Mets are all 80-71, fighting for those two NL wild card spots. Are the Marlins (four back) and the Pirates (4 1/2 games back) still in it? The 68-83 Brewers played before sell-out crowds over the weekend at Wrigley Field against the Cubs but are now back at Miller Park, where the stadium was just about half-full Tuesday night as the Brewers opened their final homestand of the season.
The Pirates opted to skip Chad Kuhl's turn in the rotation after he lasted only two innings vs St Louis back on Sep 5. It seemed to work, as he responded with six strong innings of two-run ball against Philadelphia in a 15-2 victory on Sep 14 to halt a four-start winless drought. Kuhl (4-3, 3.97 ERA) opened his big league career with the Pirates winning his first six starts but the team is just 2-3 over his last five. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson (8-14, 4.42) began the 2016 season 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA through his first 11 appearances but he?s gone 3-11 with a 5.57 ERA over his last 19 starts (Brewers are 5-14!).
Nelson is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA in nine starts vs the Pirates (Brewers are 6-3) but I don?t look for his current 2016 struggles to end in this one. Kuhl has shown promise and it?s no small thing that he?s only allowed more than three ERs in just ONE of his previous 12 starts in 2016. Pirates won?t likely earn a wild card berth in 2016 (after three straight appearances) but Pittsburgh is the play in this one.
This will be a physical test for Kenta Maeda, pitching on regular four days' rest in back-to-back starts, something management has allowed only three times (he?s 1-2 in those).
Friday, September 23rd:
TCU -13 1st Half
The Horned Frogs have a date at home with Oklahoma next Saturday which sets up to being an elimination game of sorts. Since joining the Big 12, the Horned Frogs check in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the week before battling the Sooners. Two of those wins and covers just so happened to come against SMU whom they paid a visit to each time.
SMU has played against one of the more laughable schedules in the country (91/128), yet has only managed to put just over 25 points per game on the board and given up just as many. The defense can?t defend the pass and that?s where the Horned Frogs excel with Kenny Hill already going off for over 1000 yards and accounting for 10 total touchdowns. The dual threat is in line for a huge showing this evening if the Mustangs continue to turn the ball over better than two times per game.
Look for TCU to pile up the points in hopes of putting it into cruise control in the second half to give the No. 1s time off to rest up for next week?s huge brawl with Boomer Sooner. SMU?s wilted under the Friday night lights covering one of its last five appearances, and stands just 6-15-1 ATS the last 22 times it ran up against a Big 12 opponent. TCU has bludgeoned SMU by the aggregate score of 160-54 over the L/3 meetings, but backing the Horny Toads in the first half looks to be the way to go in this matchup.
USC / Utah Under 46.5
Utah?s offense has been far from impressive scoring 24 points on Southern Utah, 20 points against BYU and while they did put up 34 points last week it came against my #118 defense of San Jose St. The Utes defense however has done what was expected holding Southern Utah and San Jose St to 8.5 PPG and allowing only 328 yards and 19 points to my #48 offense, BYU. USC meanwhile is already playing their third TOP 15 defense so we basically know what to expect. The Trojans totaled a combined 16 points versus Alabama and Stanford and now they travel for a second straight week. USC HC Clay Helton has also made a QB change naming freshman Sam Darnold this week?s starter over Max Brown and while Rice-Eccles Stadium is a very tough place to make your first ever start the level of difficulty is amplified by doing so on a short week. Both teams prefer to run the ball and against FBS foes USC has run 67 and 61 plays on offense while Utah has run 65 and 67 plays. While totals can move several points the current number on this game is 46.5 and it?s a valid play at any O/U line of 43.5 or more.
Saturday, September 24th:
Louisiana Tech at Middle Tenn St
Play: Middle Tenn St -5.5
Middle Tennessee State possesses a potent offense that is averaging 40.0 points per game and 537 total yards at 6.6 yards per play this season. The Blue Raiders' attack is being coached by offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who served in the same capacity at California from 2013 to 2015. Franklin is widely regarded as a quarterback guru after developing Jared Goff into the #1 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft.
Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill is having a solid 2016 campaign, completing 65.5% of his pass attempts for 7.7 yards per pass play with 11 touchdowns. Stockstill has one of the conference's best wide receiving units to throw to, with offensive player of the year candidate Richie James leading the way with 28 receptions for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Blue Raiders should have success moving the chains through the air against a subpar Louisiana Tech secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.5% of their pass attempts for 8.3 yards per pass play. The Bulldogs have also allowed 40.0 points per game in their first two road games this season, with opposing quarterbacks completing 70.8% of their pass attempts for 10.2 yards per pass play.
Middle Tennessee State also boasts a very good ground game led by Mississippi transfer I'Tavius Mathers, who has garnered 284 rushing yards on 47 carries with four touchdowns (6.0 yards per carry).
The scheduling situation also favors Middle Tennessee State as the Bulldogs are traveling for the third time in four weeks and are coming off an exhausting 59-45 loss at Texas Tech last week. From a technical standpoint, the Blue Raiders are a profitable 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in September and 10-3-1 ATS in conference home games.
UNLV -14.5
Two programs heading in opposite directions clash at Sam Boyd Stadium on Saturday evening as UNLV plays host to Idaho.
Idaho is a program that is in decline, which actually isn't easy for a team that has had very little success going back several seasons. But that's the only way to describe the state of the Vandals at this point. Idaho is now in what will be its next to last season as an FBS member. They're dropping down to the FCS in 2018, as they simply don't have the resources to compete. It's the first time in more than 30 years that a program will voluntarily be drop down in class.
It seems pretty clear that enthusiasm is at an all-time low for this school as far as football is concerned, and that seems to be the case on the field as well based on the early results. Idaho managed to eke out a win over Montana State to get things started. But they've since been annihilated by Washington State and Washington, and now the Vandals have to play a third consecutive road game against a hungry UNLV squad eager to get back in the win column after a couple of losses.
The Rebels opened with a blowout win over Jackson State and acquitted themselves well in a loss to UCLA as well as in the first half last week at Central Michigan. The second half was not good for UNLV as they appeared to wear out and the Chippewas ended up running them out.
I would expect a solid bounce back from UNLV here. Tony Sanchez is not a coach who appears averse to making statements when he has the opportunity, and he should definitely have that opportunity here. There are certainly some issues on this team that still need to be addressed, not the least of which is a little more accuracy from QB1 Johnny Stanton. Those numbers should improve here as Idaho is surrendering a completion percentage of more than 65%.
On paper, I made UNLV -16.5 here, so I'm not getting ripped off as far as the price is concerned. But I'm also bullish on the situation for the Rebels here. This is obviously a must win for the Rebs if they're to have a chance at snaring a bowl bid this season. But it's also a great chance to look impressive against a visitor that figures to be a little worn down after getting thumped by a pair of superior PAC-12 opponents. I also just wonder whether the interest and energy levels for Idaho will wane if they fall behind by any kind of margin. Should that happen, let's just say I have a great deal of confidence that the Rebels will keep on scoring.
UNLV has rarely found itself in the heavy chalk role but I believe it's more than justified here and I've got no problem asking them to blow away the visiting Vandals. I also believe there's more chance this line goes up if anything from where it is now, so I'm going ahead and laying the points with UNLV right now
Iowa -13
Hawkeyes got beat last weak to N. Dak St.....The jack rabbits are very good and could beat a bunch of top teams IMO....It looks bad, but overall it will fuel the fire for the Hawkeyes here....Iowa looked great the first two weeks and actually beat two teams who are decent...On the other hand Rutgers is terrible....The Rutgers offense and defense won't hold up here....Even at home the Iowa buzzsaw is in effect....Rutgers played one good team and that was Washington on the road....Scarlett Knights got smashed in that game....Rutgers actually got exposed last week Vs. New Mexico and some things just showed in the game....Rutgers isn't that good and Iowa should be willing to get back on track in a major way....This rated in a strong 2** play as my number was -18....I smell a blowout.
BYU +7
I'll place a small wager on BYU here....My big thing going into last week was this team plays close games....Same thing again last week...That makes 3 games decided by 3 points or less in a row....I like the fact that this game is in Andover and not in W.V.....BYU coming off a loss should be looking to redeem themselves, but I worry they might be a bit tired....Still the Cougars have faced some very tough competition and they played well on the defensive side of the ball in all 3.....Cougars still got Taysom Hill and he has yet to really get going...This WV defense might be just what the doctor ordered to get him back on stride today....WV hasn't been tested from what I see on the schedule...They beat up on Missouri and Youngstown...So no real challenge compared to the three games BYU has faced....WV not a bad team and I actually like the offense for them.....The defense not so much...I think these teams are a bit closer to each other then a full 7 points...I'll take the more tested team in the Cougars who tend to play razor close games.
