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Terryray

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Dec 6, 2001
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Kansas City area for who knows how long....
07:05 PM MLB [903] TOTAL o8.5 +100 (Arizona Diamondbacks vrs Washington Nationals) (Miller/Gonzalez)
07:10 PM MLB [907] New York Mets -108 ( S Lugo - R / J Urena - R )
07:05 PM MLB [917] Boston Red Sox -131 ( C Buchholz - R / B Mitchell - R )
07:05 PM MLB [920] TOTAL u9-105 (Baltimore Orioles vrs Toronto Blue Jays) ( C Tillman - R / F Liriano - L )
07:10 PM MLB [922] Detroit Tigers -130 ( Z McAllister - R / M Fulmer - R )
08:10 PM MLB [926] Chicago White Sox +101 ( B Snell - L / M Gonzalez - R )
10:05 PM MLB [927] TOTAL o8.5 -115 (Oakland Athletics vrs Las Angeles Angels) ( S Gray - R / A Meyer - R )
10:00 PM NBA Playoffs - Game 1 [653] Chicago Sky +11.5 -145 (B+2)

1 unit bet pays 147 ....betdsi line

MLB parlays: 16-165, -37.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...

Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
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ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:


Under is 9-1-1 in BAL last 11 games.....Under is 8-2-1 in TOR last 11 overall....Under is 50-21-1 in BAL last 72 overall....Under is 10-2 in Tillmans last 12 starts overall....Under is 8-2 Liriano's last 10 starts overall..

O's haven't seen Liriano all year but career he has over 5.00 era against them. Tillman not much better.
Tough call this game but I think the real Liriano will show up and not fair well. Jay pen has injury problems as well.


Over is 19-7-1 in ATL last 27 home games.

Working with a more effective curveball, Anderson has a 2.30 ERA over his last 11 starts and has surrendered more than two earned runs only once in those games.

The under is 13-5-1 in L.A.?s past 19 overall. The under is 6-1 in San Diego?s past seven vs. right-handers.

Under is 9-3-1 in Chatwood?s last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record...Under is 5-0 in Samardzija?s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record....Under is 5-0-1 in Samardzija?s last 6 home starts. [but sure not like the HP ump there tonight for an under]

Baltimore Orioles +134

The Baltimore Orioles now lead the Detroit Tigers by just one game for the final wild card spot in the American League. The Toronto Blue Jays are two games up on the Orioles and have a bit of a cushion now. It's clear that the Orioles want this game more.

I like the value we are getting with Baltimore here because it has the edge on the mound. Chris Tillman is 16-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.274 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 8-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 13 road starts.

Francisco Liriano is 8-13 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 28 starts this season between the Pirates and Blue Jays. He is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in eight carer starts against the Orioles. He gave up 6 earned runs and 11 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-9 loss to the Orioles in his last start against them.

Baltimore is 13-3 in Tillman's last 16 starts vs. AL East opponents, 7-0 in his last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 22-8 in his last 30 starts overall. The Orioles are 9-4 in their last 13 games following a loss.


Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Cincinnati Reds +152

The Cardinals continue to fight for a wildcard berth with only 5 games left and they sit only a game back of San Francisco. Tonights starting pitchers are for the Reds RH Anthony DeSclafani (8-5, 3.38 ERA) and he goes up against the Cardinals RH Mike Leake (9-11, 4.72 ERA). Desclafani has had a rough time of it as of late and maybe the innings are starting to catch up with him. We believe that he will bounce back tonight as he faces a Cardinal team that he has had some good success against this year and during his career. In his career against the Cardinals he has a 3-1 record, with a 2.32 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.065. Leake faces his former team and he has been not pitching to well of late. In his last 7 starts he has a 4.42 ERA with a WHIP of 1.55. He has faced his former team only 3 times since leaving them and the results have been terrible. In those 3 starts he has a 8.31 ERA with a WHIP of 1.673. The Cardinals are desperate to win and sometimes that can go against you even at home. Great value with the Reds getting plus 152 at the time of this writing. The Reds have won 3 out of 4 games and would like nothing better than to take it to their former teammate and stop their division rival St. Louis from making the playoffs.

In the Sights?

The early stages of Mets/Marlins on Monday night will be remembered long throughout the annals of baseball history, beginning with that dramatic HR from Dee Gordon. But over the last 15 innings between these teams it has been 15-1 Mets, and I am surprised to see the price point that is available in the early trading for tonight, so it will be #907 New York (7:10 Eastern) in play, with as low as -108 available off of the opener of -125. I consider this one good all the way back up to the opener, in a rare case of a team in a must-win situation not being priced at all for it.

Seth Lugo is not as good as his 4-2/2.61 would indicate, but he has been effective enough to put the Mets in the position to go 6-0 across his last half dozen starts, and off of last night?s big working margin the bullpen is well-set, even with Jeurys Familia getting up to 21 pitches (he had not worked since last Thursday, so Terry Collins needed to get him into a game). The other side of the equation may be a mess.

Jose Urena has not established yet that he has the stuff to be a starter at this level, now siting at 5-13/5.64 over 140.1 MLB innings. He put a career-game together three starts back against the Dodgers, coming within one out of a complete-game shutout, but for a guy of his ability that workload may have been too much ? in two outings since then, vs. the lowly offenses of the Phillies and Braves, he has lasted only four innings, getting rocked for 12 runs. There may not be much left in his 2016 tank, and that is a problem for Don Mattingly after he could only get 6.2 frames combined from his starters the last two nights.

Tampa Bay -107 over CHICAGO

Miguel Gonzalez enters this one off a disaster start and having notched a 4.94 xERA over his last four starts. None of this is new to Gonzalez, as he?s a below average starter on his best day. For two years running. Gonzalez has missed time with groin, shoulder, and elbow woes. Meanwhile, his ERA finally spiked to match (and exceed) xERA, as he bid adieu to prior hit/strand rate fortune. Again, he?s been consistently mediocre and thus becomes fade material when he?s evenly priced against a vastly superior mound opponent.

This is one game in which anything can happen but we?re not sure many realize how good Blake Snell truly is. Snell has been missing a slew of bats lately with 22 K?s over his last 18 frames and his control has been better too. A very unfortunate 43% hit rate over his last five games has led to some average numbers but this kid is anything but average. Snell?s skills, which include a 13% swing and miss rate and 3.69 xERA over his last six starts make for a good under-the-radar play here. If we lose another one, so be it but we are absolutely going with the best of it here.

Minnesota +117 over KANSAS CITY

We?re not going to allow another terrible night to deter us from the task at hand. That task is to find value and let the chips fall where they may. It is just one of those years in many sports combined, (not just baseball) where we are simply not getting many breaks but we must stick with it. We produced nine straight years of being in the black so a poor year from time to time is inevitable. The bleeding will stop and it will bounce back in a big way because our formula has proven to be a winning one for years. That value we speak of continues here against Jason Vargas.

Vargas signed a four-year 32M contract in 2014 and has missed this entire year because of Tommy John surgery. Even before the surgery, Vargas did not have league average skills but when you are a lefty that can throw strikes, you can get paid a fortune in this league. Vargas? fastball now tops off at 85 MPH. He has started two games recently, going three innings in his first start and being stretched out a bit more to four innings in his last start. He might be stretched out to five here but that is as far as he will go. Prior to those aforementioned two starts, Vargas had not pitched at the major league level since July 21, 2015. The Royals plan for Vargas was to give him about 10-15 innings of work down the stretch and he?s thrown seven innings so far but for betting purposes, Vargas should be avoided at all costs based upon his 5.85/5.44 ERA/xERA split in six minor league rehab starts in 2016. Incidentally, the Twinkies hit southpaws very well.

Earvin Santana?s skills are surging. Santana has posted a 13/33 BB/K split over his last 29 innings with the support of a 13% swing and miss rate. Santana has a history of strong finishes, which includes last year where he roared down the stretch with six dominant starts in his final seven games. Santana comes in with an xERA of 3.41 over his last five starts. Right now, Santana?s skill set looks remarkably stable and so we?ll gladly step in here with the superior starter.

Any thoughts on streaking White Sox vs slumping Rays tonight? White Sox now -101. Blake Snell has struggled often putting many on base. Gonzalez with the exception of his last outing has pitched fairly well the past month..

I don't think this price is in the right range - the White Sox have brought a lot more energy to the field in winning the first two games of the series 20-7, and Snell has been laboring consistently over the past two months, with 10 straight starts of a PPI of 17.3 or higher, and that is not the kind of thing that gets corrected by a tired pitcher this late (even in those 5 shutout innings vs. the Yankees in his last outing he allowed 8 base-runners). I could not fault a White Sox ticket at -105 to less, but there is a reduced money management aspect when playing two non-contenders this late in the season.

LA Angels -126

The Oakland A's travel to Los Angeles to take on the Angels on Wednesday night. Oakland is 67-90 SU overall this year while the LA Angels come in with a 71-87 SU overall record on the season. Sonny Gray is 5-11 with a 5.74 ERA overall this year, 2-5 with a 5.67 ERA on the road this season and 1-2 with a 7.54 ERA his last 3 starts. Alex Meyer has a 2.70 ERA in his one start vs LA Angels in his career. Oakland is scoring 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters this year and 2.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they have a team batting average of only .201. LA Angels are allowing only 2.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Oakland is 18-40 last 3 years as a road underdog of +100 to +125. LA Angels are 68-33 last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!

Taking a sharp look at two games tonight.

O8.5 Reds/Cardinals

The Cardinals heads up career numbers demonstrate that they have pounded DeSclafani. 5 of the only 7 to face DeSclafani have OPS over 1.121 and batting averages over .278. So they have hit him for average and for power.

Both teams are crushing the ball of late (10 running averages all deep green on matchupcenter.com) and while hte Cards pen is on up tick, the Reds numbers are just that RED, they seem to have found their early season stride. I was on the over last night which covered in tht 4th inning, love it when that happens. I am being drawn back.

Giants ML -190 Only one question. Is it too dang expensive? The RL is +115 and the Rockies are just not hittilng the ball they way they were two weeks ago. Numbers indicate slump and as much as I hate to say it Jeff Samardzija is almost worth backing. but at -190, I start to get queesy. Only Arenado hits Samardzija for power. And only LeMahiew hits him for average.

It looks like if you hang on there will be a shot at an 8 in St. Louis. DeSclafani may be wearing down a bit, having walked three batters in back-to-back games for the first time since his first two starts this season, when he looked like he wasn't quite ready. And Leake is who he is - just a guy with average stuff that goes out and brings innings, which is something that will get you paid well at the MLB level. It doesn't take a lot for each team to get to 4 in that one, which is mission accomplished.

The Rockies have been out-scored by 29 runs through 5 games this trip, despite having the chance to go out and play spoiler, which sometimes brings an also-ran some added life. In this case it hasn't. I see as low as -178 on the board now, and while that will not qualify as a bargain, it does make it easier to squeeze the trigger.



Phoenix @ Minnesota
Pick: Under 166

This is the third game in seven nights for Phoenix, while Minnesota is home and rested not having played in nine days. They received a double-bye to the Semifinals as the #1 overall seed. Minnesota won the first meeting at home, and won the battle of the glass at 40-24. They also won the second meeting where they allowed just 14 points in the first and third quarters, with the game sailing UNDER the total. Phoenix is 36-24 UNDER the past two seasons when facing an up-tempo team like Minnesota (teams averaging 62+ shots per game). They are also 26-14 UNDER vs. division opponents the past two seasons, and 25-14 UNDER after a win over same span. The UNDER is also 12-5 when these rivals clash, and this one shapes up as another defensive duel.
 
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