09:00 PM CFB [249] Kansas State +3.5 -105
07:35 PM NBA [706] Detroit Pistons -3-111
08:05 PM NBA [710] Chicago Bulls -7.5 -150 (B+2)
09:05 PM NBA [715] TOTAL o215-150 (B+2) (Minnesota Timberwolves vrs Denver Nuggets)
10:35 PM NBA [719] TOTAL o224.5 -150 (B+2) (Toronto Raptors vrs Golden State Warriors)
09:00 PM CBB [761] UCLA -2-110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [1778] 1H Notre Dame -12.5 -115
07:05 PM NHL [52] Pittsburgh Penguins -168
07:35 PM NHL [56] Tampa Bay Lightning -110
1 unit bet pays 185....betdsi line
I just noticed Notre Dame starts out the gate real fast --- they are something like 9-1 ATS last 10 in 1H
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
FL Panthers are 17-5 in their last 22 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Pittsburgh Penguins are 40-12 in their last 52 home games
Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.
The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall. The Knicks are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Atlanta.
Nets are just 1-14 as the visiting team this year
The Pitt Panthers have won 16 consecutive non-conference home games against unranked opponents and are 134-5 overall versus non-conference foes all-time at the Petersen Events Center.
NC-Wilmington are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games.
UNLV is 3-12-1 against the spread in their last 16 road games
Fresno State is 17-5 ATS last 22 overall and 6-0 ATS last 6 vs. MWC....while New Mexico is 1-5-1 ATS last 7 vs. MCW.
Wolves vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 217?
Both Denver and Minnesota are in the bottom five for defensive efficiency this season, surrendering 108.4 and 108.0 points per 100 possessions respectively. With two such abysmal defenses I think it stands to reason that we'll see a high-scoring encounter when the two Northwest Division rivals clash at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado Wednesday night.
The 10-21 Timberwolves have played decent basketball lately and defeated the Hawks 104-90 on Monday. Karl-Anthony Towns put up another dominant performance and went 8-for-8 from the field, including 3-for-3 from beyond the arc.
The 13-18 Nuggets are also coming off a win on Monday when they defeated a shorthanded Clippers team 106-102, their fourth win in the past six games. Scoring has not been an issue for Denver this season, and the team averages 112.6 points per game home at Pepsi Center but are also giving up the same number of points.
Over is 10-3-1 in Denver's home games this season, and I think we'll see another one fly over the total tonight.
Wolves vs. Nuggets
Play: Wolves +4?
This is a poor matchup for the Nuggets with a Minnesota team that is well equiped to deal with a player like Nikola Jokic. Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng should be able to get Jokic in early foul trouble which will heavily favor the Wolves. Look for Wiggins and Lavine to play big minutes and provide plenty of offense tonight in Denver. I think the T- Wolves are a good value at +4 points and I'll back them on the road here on Wednesday night. Expect a lot of points to be scored in this one and Minnesota to step up in the 4th quarter and get the win.
Bulls -9
I have not problem laying this big number with the Bulls at home against the Nets. Chicago has had their struggles of late, but come in off a 90-85 win at home against the Pacers to snap a 3-game skid. This is a game the Bulls won't overlook and that should result in an easy double-digit win. The Nets won 120-118 at home against Charlotte last time out, but have not won consecutive games all season and are losing by more than 10 ppg after a win. Brooklyn is also just 1-14 away from home on the year, where they are getting outscored by 11.1 ppg. Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, while Nets are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after a home win scoring 110 or more points.
Cincinnati vs. Temple
Play: Under 136
Anytime you can get a Cincinnati game with a total of 130 or higher, there needs to be a wager placed. Since the 2010 season, they are 71-28 UNDER since 2010 (72%) with a total of 130 or higher. On the road with a total of 130+, the Bearcats are 11-1 UNDER since the start of last year with an average final total score of 121 points.
The Bearcats consistently rank as a top 20 defense and one of the slower tempo teams in the nation. They will be playing with triple revenge tonight against a Temple team that beat them both meetings last year and the final meeting in the 14-15 season. Temple appears that they will be without their senior point guard who led the AAC in assist:turnover ratio last year. The Owls have a lot of freshmen here that I don?t think are ready for this Cincy defense that will be eager to put the clamps down after Marshall put up 50 points in the first half against them last week. When playing with triple revenge, Cincy has held their last two opponents to 53 and 58 points (in 2015 and 2014 against UConn and Memphis).
Coach Fran Dunphy for Temple is a defensive minded coach. His guys can?t run with Cincinnati and win the game. The only way I think they have a chance is playing in the halfcourt with the Bearcats. I am looking for a tough fought game finishing right in the 129-130 range.
Georgetown vs. Marquette
Play: Georgetown +4?
Marquette has struggled over their past couple games, and Georgetown has already proved that this team can win on the road. Marquette is really struggling defensively as they are allowing 80 ppg to decent competition. Georgetown is the better coached team and in my opinion has a few more playmakers than Marquette. I think its great we are getting 4.5 as I think that Georgetown has a real shot at winning this game outright.
NC State -16?
NC State has gone through the season warmup series of games in good form. They did play Creighton, who is undefeated, and lost 112-94 in their fourth game of the season. Since, then the focus has been on the defensive end. NC State has allowed less than 37% shooting in the last 4 games. Rider is coming off a horrid shooting game making just 34% of their shots in a 78-67 SUATS loss at UMASS. Rider has not faced a team with the depth, athleticism, and talent of an NC State squad. We expect Rider to struggle to score throughout this game.
Kansas St. +2
One of the keys for me during bowl season is to try and zero in on teams that have something to play for, even if it falls into the intangibles category. The other is statistical. As anyone who has read, watched or listened to me over all these years is likely well aware, I like teams that can run the football and also stop the run. The way the game is played these days might well bear little similarity to the good ol' smashmouth days. But one constant that's still in place is that teams who excel in these two categories win football games. I suspect that will never change. Win the line of scrimmage, win the game.
Kansas State fits on both counts here. The Wildcats have solid overall numbers in the rushing department. But I think it's important to note that this Kansas State team has been improving at both aspects as the season has progressed. Fact is, the Wildcats don't throw it particularly well, so they have to get things done on the ground offensively. Opposing defensive coordinators are obviously well aware of this, yet the K-State ground game has continued to get better.
The Wildcats are also doing a good job of limiting opposing ground games. That's key here as Texas A&M was at its best this season when they were putting up big overland numbers. Trevor Knight getting hurt obviously impacted the Aggies offense. I expect Knight to be under center for this bowl game, but he's far more dangerous as a runner than passer. If the Wildcats are able to force the A&M QB to throw, that's a likely plus for Kansas State.
If I like Kansas State from a fundamentals standpoint, I like the intangibles even more. Texas A&M had dreams of something big earlier this season. But when the 6-0 Aggies got stomped by Alabama, the steam went out of their sails, and they limped down the stretch. Texas A&M managed only two wins post-Bama, and defeating New Mexico State and UTSA doesn't count for much.
On the other hand, Kansas State is living up to billing. This team was very young at the start of the season and it showed. But as they've gained experience, they've improved substantially. There are many who feel next year's Wildcats will be a force in the Big 12 and I'm one who believes Bill Snyder wants to head into the off-season with major momentum.
Snyder has downplayed that stance to some extent, but I think that's typical coachspeak. Actually, his history indicates there is indeed something to ending on a bowl game high note and having it carry over.
By no means am I suggesting Texas A&M doesn't care about winning this game. But my stance is that Kansas State is the hungrier team right now. The Wildcats ended the regular season on a far more positive note and they fit the stat profile I like best for bowl games.
I had to choose between four games I liked pretty much the same for this selection. But for the reasons listed here plus some other numbers that indicate the dog, I'm taking Kansas State plus the short number for my Bowl Game of the Year.
Indiana vs. Utah
Play: Utah -7
The Hoosiers and the Utes go to Santa Clara, California to play in the Foster Farms Bowl. It is very familiar for the Utes to take a trip to California as they play in the PAC 12, the trip for Indiana is not so familiar and we believe the motivation will not be there for the Hoosiers. Indiana is a team in total shambles after firing HC Kevin Wilson for player mistreatment allegations and this will be significant as first year DC Tom Allen now takes over the HC job. Allen is missing one of his key guys on offense as WR Simmie Cobbs Jr.?s will not be able to recover from an ankle injury in mid season to make it to the Bowl game. Utah has lost 3 out of their last 4 games but they have all been close. In fact in their 3 losses they have lost by a combined 14 points. Also two of those losses came against two of the top 10 teams in the country in Colorado and Washington. We believe RB Joe Williams will just dominate today on the offensive side of the ball for the Utes. This Utah club is ranked 20th in the nation in Turnover margin and Indiana's QB Richard Lagow has 16 picks this season. Watch for the Hoosiers to lose the ball a few times today. We see a very distracted Indiana club getting beat in all facets of the game today by a very good Utah club. Backing our selection is the fact that the Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Big Ten.
Utah -5? over Indiana
What we have here is an opportunity to take back what we like to call a ?short-priced? favorite. The Utes could have easily come into this game spotting the Hoosiers double-digits under different circumstances. However, the Utes have lost three of their overall four losses this season in the final third of their regular season docket so their stock is lower than it should be. The Utes lost in gut-wrenching fashion in each instance. We will dismiss Utah?s early season hiccup at California and focus on their last three losses. First, Utah lost at the tail end of the fourth quarter at home against Washington, the Pac-12 Champion and the #4 seed in the College Football Playoff by virtue of an uncanny punt return touchdown. Utah would take out its anger the following week on visiting Arizona State before it would be stunned in a two-point loss to Oregon. That loss to the Ducks sticks out, as the Utes lost as an 11-point favorite. Utah would follow this up with a regular season concluding loss at Colorado, the team who represented the Pac-12 South in the Conference?s Championship Game The Utes lost by just five points to Colorado but it should be noted that they were a 10?-point dog and had a chance to win that one too. Had fortune been reversed ever so slightly with Utah, we could potentially be discussing the Utes as a #4 seed in the College Football Playoff, but we will stay clear of hyperbole. Utah is a football team that is better than their record projects. Its wins over BYU, USC and others showcase the potential this team has.
The same cannot be said for Indiana, who does not own a win over a team with a record greater than .500 this season. In fact, IU defeated just one opponent who even managed to qualify for a bowl game (Maryland). Incidentally, Maryland lost to Boston College in the Quick Lane Bowl and allowed 36 points to a team that had trouble moving five yards all season. The Hoosiers remaining victims were FIU, Ball State, Michigan State, Purdue and Rutgers to comprise an effort that deemed them bowl eligible. The Hoosiers beat a brutally inept Rutgers team by one score, 33-27 and they barely got by an even worse Purdue team, 26-24. The Hoosiers have made a living off of bottom-feeding this year. It is also worth noting that four of IU?s six wins this season came at home. Now they have to travel across the country to face a Pac-12 opponent accustomed to playing on the West Coast on a regular basis. While the game may be neutral in terms of site, the match-up is anything but even and if all that doesn?t convince you, perhaps this will: Indiana just fired its coach heading into this game and will miss Kevin Wilson's offensive expertise while Utah?s Kyle Whittingham is 8-1 in Bowl games with a 7-2 ATS record.
Kansas State +125 over Texas A&M
For the Wabash Cannonballs a.k.a. the artist formerly known as K-State, Bill Snyder coached this unit up to win five of its last six and ultimately earn this bowl bid. Previous to this run, the Wildcats were sitting at 3-3 after they were rolled by the Big 12 Champion Oklahoma in Norman on October 15th. Since then, it?s been all-academic for the ?Cats, as they won on the road at Texas, Baylor and TCU, games they were expected to lose. The Wildcats are a small dog here and it?s worth noting that they?re 4-0 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season, including three outright wins. Snyder figures to have his team ready, as he always does in these Bowl games but this wager is actually more about fading the Aggies.
These two teams know each other well from A&M?s days as a Big 12 constituent before they moved on to greener pastures in the SEC. Since joining the SEC, the Aggies have certainly tallied up their fair amount of bumps and bruises and undoubtedly may look at this contest with malcontent because they had bigger things on their mind just a short while ago. You see, at one-point the Aggies sat at #4 in the College Football Playoff rankings. They were 6-0 at one point before playing Alabama and losing 33-14. The Aggies would respond the very next week with a 52-10 victory over New Mexico State before hitting the skids in the final four weeks.
A&M would go 1-3 down the backstretch. They lost at 5-7 Mississippi State while being defeated in their own backyard by both LSU and Mississippi, a team that failed to qualify for a bowl in 2016. The Aggies only win over this stretch was against UTSA but even the Roadrunners tested them. As a 27?-point choice, A&M beat UTSA by just 13. The Aggies are on a current run of 0-8 against the spread and are clearly a team that has been overvalued at an almost abusive capacity. They have been sluggish and flat since Alabama made an example out of them in Tuscaloosa in October and we don?t see anything changing here after a month layoff. A&M has played uninspired football and if one loss in the regular season can deplete their outlook on an entire season, we can only fathom how they will approach this bowl operating with a mindset that perhaps they could have been in a game of larger consequence. This mindset of course is superfluous because had they taken care of business against teams like Ole Miss and Miss State, they would assuredly be a viable candidate for a New Year?s Six Bowl Game. However no such event occurred and Kansas State will come in with the right attitude like they always do and put the Aggies out of their misery. If A&M was going to show something, wouldn't they have done so in the season finale at Kyle Field? Instead the Aggies were blown out that night. Now they face a team which is physical, will be well prepped and will care -- all the things that do not create an ideal bowl opponent, especially for a team that may have packed it in. K-State outright gets this call.
Philadelphia +120 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Blue Notes are without question the most overrated team in the West because they have 18 wins and 41 points in 35 games. They got hot for a while in late October and most of November but the wheels are starting to come off this below average team and so we?ll continue to fade them regularly. St. Louis has two wins in their last seven games, one against New Jersey and one against Dallas. Against Dallas, the Blues were outshot 38-22 and out-chanced 26-12. Had Larry King been in net for Dallas, St. Louis would?ve likely lost that one too. The Blues have amassed 23, 22, 27, 27, 26 and 23 shots on net in five of their last six. The Blues puck possession numbers are dropping rapidly. St. Louis now ranks 21st in puck possession and 26th out of 30 teams over the past 15 games in puck possession. The Blues have out-chanced three of their past 15 opponents. To make matters worse, their goaltending duo of Jake Allen and Carter Hutton (who starts tonight), is one of the worst combos in the league with Hutton sporting a weak .896 save percentage and Jake Allen sporting one that isn?t much better.
The Flyers have scored the fourth most goals in the league. They have also won 11 of their last 14 games including a 3-2 victory against the Caps the night before they lost to New Jersey, 4-0. That win against Washington essentially put the Flyers on holidays because they wanted nothing to do with that game in New Jersey the very next night prior to breaking. What is even more impressive about the Flyers current run (11-2-1 in their past 14 games) is that they have been held without a power-play goal in 15 chances over the past six games so once the PP starts scoring, Philly is going to be even more difficult to beat. The Flyers are trending up while the Blue notes are trending down in a big way. Furthermore, this will be the first of a three-game trip for the Flyers and it opens a six-game home-stand for the Blues. The St. Louis home stretch includes the outdoor Winter Classic matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks in five days from now and that?s a big deal in St. Louis right now, which could also negatively affect the Blues in this game and in their next game against Nashville too. It will mark the Blues first ever outdoor game.
Toronto +111 over FLORIDA
OT included. There is no question that the Florida Panthers are a feisty bunch that play hard every time they take the ice. They have several good pieces but so does every team in the NHL. The bottom line is that the Panthers have to play a REALLY good game to win and anything less means they are likely to lose. The Panthers are 15-14-6 or 15-20. They have played the 17th toughest schedule in the league and their **simple system rating (SRS) ranks them 23rd out of 30 teams. In 19 games against top 16 teams, Florida has four wins and 15 losses. They also have just four wins in their past 14 games and those victories occurred against Vancouver, Colorado, Detroit and Buffalo. An argument can be made for that quartet being four of the worst six teams in the league.
The best thing about the Maple Leafs is that they are 14-12-7 or 14-19 and have less points than the Panthers. That is so great because we?re getting prices on them against teams that are inferior to them and in this case, vastly inferior. Toronto might be the best five games under .500 team in the past 30 years. Offensively, the Leafs rank extremely high in all analytical categories and are first or second best in most of them. Mike Babcock has taken a slightly damaged Nazem Kadri and molded him into one of the most effective and underrated players in the game. Kadri is wickedly talented (both offensively and defensively) and has now earned himself top-six minutes on one of Toronto?s top two lines. Toronto?s last two wins were over Colorado and Arizona so not much stock is being put into it but they did outscore that pair 10-1. The Maple Leafs have allowed three goals or less in 13 straight games and two or less in eight of those so it?s not just offense that Babcock is working on. Toronto is an upper echelon team that is priced like an average one and it?s something we must continue to try to take advantage of.
**SRS is a rating that takes into account average goal differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in goals above/below average, where zero is average. (Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method).
NFL:
There are only a small handful of games that actually impact the playoff seedings and matchups this week - there are 10 teams that know their seasons will extend and three that know that a win gets them in (with a slight * next to Washington, which I will get to in a moment). But as noted in some of the thread discussions last week, it is not just about playoff positioning for the teams, but also a focus on how they can best develop across the remaining practice time/game time that is left. That particularly matters with some new teams in the mix. So for ease of organization, I will start setting the key storylines now, so that the day-by-day reading can be the most efficient, going alphabetically by conference ?
AFC
HOUSTON ? You will read and hear form the Sports Mediaverse that The Texans have nothing to play for this week, already being locked into the #4 seed. I would not buy into that notion. The offense is a long way from being playoff-ready, so Bill O?Brien?s optimal move is to prepare Tom Savage for this week as though it was a playoff game. That could also impact the decision making on Lamar Miller ? instead of getting another week off to get back to full health, he may be on the field at Tennessee so that the offense can better function as a unit.
O?Brien?s take - "I think anytime you line up, you play to win. I think that's what we're all about here with the Houston Texans. I think it's important to win anytime you play, in this case on Sunday. We'll be smart about it, we're going to go out there and do everything we can against a difficult opponent. We're going to go out there and play to win the game.?
And then there is the defense. I brought that group to the lead on Friday noting that while their rating on my charts, and those of the Football Outsiders, show them to be a bit above average, they lead the NFL for fewest yards allowed. That measurement is not ordinarily of great importance, but it is how the official league statistics rate the ?#1 Defense?, and the Houston players have been open in terms of what that means to them. That group also needs some playing time as a unit before the playoffs begin, with Whitney Mercilus, Jonathan Joseph and John Simon all returning from injuries vs. the Bengals. Will maintaining that #1 rating be a part of the consciousness of the Houston coaching staff this week? I believe so, and I will be revisiting that notion as the player rotations get set.
KANSAS CITY ? The Chiefs take the field with an opportunity to be the #2 seed, should they win and the Raiders lose at Denver. Since an Oakland loss would not be a shock without Derek Carr, this is a full prep week for Andy Reid and his staff, which means treating this game like it was a playoff affair.
MIAMI - This is not an easy week for Adam Gase. The Dolphins will play a road playoff game next week no matter what the outcomes are, but there is a major difference between the options ? a win over the Patriots could mean a trip to Houston instead of Pittsburgh, should Kansas City also lose. Like O?Brien, Gase also would like to have more time to get his QB playoff-ready; Matt Moore has played well in replacing Ryan Tannehill, but will still go into the post-season with only three starts under his belt.
Now the problem ? the defense has a lot of injured components right now, with already-thinned groups at DB (Reshad Jones out for the season) and LB (Koa Misi on IR) now having to deal with Byron Maxwell and Isa Abdul-Quddus being question marks in the secondary, and Jelani Jenkins dealing with a knee injury at LB. What the Dolphins do with that defensive depth chart will be something to watch, especially after that unit was on the field for 90 plays at Buffalo.
NEW ENGLAND - It could not be more simple for the Patriots: a win clinches the top seed in the AFC throughout the playoffs. Bill Belichick has been here before and knows the drill, not just in terms of handling his team, but also in deftly addressing the questions that surround such weeks. He was at his acerbic best on Monday when asked if any players would be rested this week -
"Yeah, I mean, look, I don't really understand that question. We have, I don't know how many starters we have, but we have a lot more than we ... we can only inactivate seven players. So this isn't like a preseason game where you have 75 guys on your roster. It's a regular-season game. So I don't really understand that whole line of questioning. I'm not saying I'm a great mathematician or anything, but the numbers just don't add up for that type of conversation."
OAKLAND ? The Raiders will take the field with the opportunity to wrap up the AFC West and at least the #2 seed, and possibly even the #1 if the Patriots lost at Miami. That naturally means a prime focus, and there is also the developmental rush taking place with the offense, tweaking things for Matt McGloin, which is one of the prime subplots of the week.
This one will be a fascinating case study because while McGloin brings limitations to the QB position, he will have three Pro Bowl OL in front of him, the dynamic tandem of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree out wide, and a deep group of RBs, that have shown ability both carrying the ball and catching it. And in this second season in Oakland it is once again the opportunity for Jack Del Rio to focus on building out his program, trying to lay the best possible foundation going forward. As such you can also file this away for notions of his processes -
?It?s a tough game. Things happen in this game. It?s all about the team. It?s all about us moving on with the next opportunity and pulling together as a group of men and being unselfish and sacrificing for each other. It doesn?t change. It doesn?t change regardless of who it is. It?s about the team. It?s about us winning. That?s not in any way meant to be insensitive. You always show love and appreciation for anybody who was banged up, but the team does carry on. That?s what we do.?
There is a fascinating "game inside the game" there, and it does go to Bill Musgrave. Atlanta came to this field and controlled the Denver defense by throwing the ball to the RBs, which was a major theme point here. What do the Raiders do about as well as any team in the league? Isolate their RBs and make plays through the air, Murray/Richard/Ozawale/Washington combining for 86 catches. This is not an easy thing to incorporate into a handicap because we can't be sure any particular coach will read a game the way that another did, but it can mean some opportunities. Oakland only completed four passes to the RBs in the first win over the Broncos, but a big part of that was the running game controlling things so well (RBs got 215 yards at 5.5 per attempt) that they did not have to stretch the playbook much.
PITTSBURGH ? The Steelers have precious little going on this week, having been locked in to the #3 seed regardless of any outcomes. Because this is a veteran group that doesn?t need much more work, but could use a little rest, this essentially becomes the bye for them that a #1 or #2 seed would get the following weekend. I don?t expect to see Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell or Antonio Brown take the field on offense, and would not be surprised if at least James Harrison got the week off defensively.
Hence, a scramble being thrown in on one of the side elements of our endeavor ? after holding back the Steelers as the final piece of the Suviror Pool puzzle the circumstances of the past couple of weeks have removed what could have been a great position, Pittsburgh needing the game and being favored in double figures, to one in which the search has been opened up. As such I will move the Survivor Pool take form Wednesday to Thursday this week, to allow for a deeper dive across the league.
NFC
ATLANTA ? The picture is clear for the Falcons: beat the Saints and they lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, and earn a bye. Dan Quinn has already been direct and to the point - ?It?s all out there for us. We are going to battle for it in every way that we can against New Orleans. We know there is an opportunity for us there and we are going to go for it in the biggest way that we can.?
DALLAS ? There will be a lot to follow here. The Cowboys have put themselves into the position of having back-to-back bye weeks, should that be their choice, and if I was in charge I would use this week to get Tony Romo some playing time at QB, something that could prove to be invaluable should Dak Prescott get injured in the playoffs. And while I would have Ezekial Elliott out there for a bit to stay in playing rhythm, not wanting him to sit out for two weeks, there is almost no chance I would have him on the field in the second half at Philadelphia. But I?m not Jerry Jones.
Jones has already taken the lead on setting this week?s stage, and that stage calls for Prescott to be playing the lead - ?We?re just not concerned about him (Romo) having play time, but sure wouldn?t want him to get any time other than playing behind our first. ?Dak is gaining on it. That game out there tonight made Dak a better quarterback. He played very well. He really made some good decisions. You don?t want to mess up those reps. For him to have played like he played against Detroit, I think he?s a better quarterback. At this stage, he?s just gaining on it. So you make a big case for him to play against Philadelphia to be a better quarterback for the playoffs.?
?We?ve got the book on Tony. We?re seeing him work at practice, and that?s enough. ?We have a real good feel. We have a very good feel for how he could do. Romo, not to play him, we don?t feel like that any gain we?d get from him stepping out there and running a few plays or a series of plays or several plays would be worth the risk.?
Where the Cowboys do have some issues are injuries on defense, but for now pencil the game vs. the Eagles as one of the most difficult prices to set on this week?s board.
DETROIT/GREEN BAY ? I will combine these two because the motivations are the same; the winner gets the NFC North, the loser is either out of the playoffs completely, if Washington has won earlier in the day, or the final NFC Wild Card team. Of course, there is also the notion of a tie game, which I will save for the Redskins in a moment.
There is already a plot twist in play in building a handicap for the matchup, the Packers getting the benefit of two added preparation days. This may particularly matter because the Green Bay bye was back on October 2, so the Packers have been going through a rather sustained slog. Mike McCarthy will set the stage this week by not having his players back on the practice field until Wednesday -
?I love it today. It was a challenge on the front side of it. Any time you get into those six-day weeks and things like that this late in the season it?s obviously a pull. And I just go off what our own personal experience has been playing 10 straight games, coming out of a Thursday night game against Chicago. That?s a grind. That?s the first time we?ve had to do that. That makes a big difference. We made it through. Having the extra day will benefit us, I hope. We?re going to use it, that?s for sure and really just focus on the mental aspect of it and get ready for the Lions.?
NY GIANTS - The Giants are locked in to the #5 seed in the NFC regardless of the Sunday outcomes, but can?t do any look-ahead prep, with there being prospects of playing at Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay or Seattle. While there is the obvious temptation of avoiding injury, there is also the fact that the offense is not playoff-ready, with those three Eli Manning interceptions against the Eagles not the ideal momentum to carry forward. So will Eli be on the field for the opening possession at Washington -
"My take is to play. I think to go in there, play well and try to find a good rhythm offensively going against a team in the division, a team you know well and they know us. I think that's the mindset. Until I'm told differently, that's how I'm taking it."
That will provide some interesting reading as the week progresses, especially in terms of how the stores set the First Half line.
SEATTLE ? With New Orleans/Atlanta having been pushed back to a late start, the Seahawks will kick off with the opportunity to move up to the #2 seed, which they get by winning, and having the Falcons lose. But they still need to win to wrap up the #3 seed, since a loss to the 49ers would put them behind the Green Bay/Detroit winner. But this is another situation that is not about just positioning, but instead the Seahawks showing that they are good enough to win in the post-season.
Pete Carroll was blunt about it - ?I don?t think it?s alarming. I just think it?s what we?re working with. Obviously, it?s going to be really difficult to expect us to play a great game until we do.?
TAMPA BAY ? Several things have to happen for the Buccaneers to be on the practice field next week, and naturally it all starts with beating Carolina. So a young team on the rise, with a first year HC at the helm, has nothing better to do than to game plan as though this is a playoff affair vs. the Panthers. I will be following that closely, because the Bucs may be shaping up as a prime Survivor Pool option given the brewing Pittsburgh apathy towards this week?s scoreboard.
WASHINGTON - Outside of those that had Dallas & Over tickets last night, perhaps no one enjoyed watching the Monday Night game play out more than the Redskins. The first matter of business is to beat the Giants on Sunday, a task that might be made easier by Ben McAdoo?s player rotation (as noted above, something to be following closely). Then what do Jay Gruden and his players get to do? Sit in front of a television set, and root for Packers/Lions to end in anything other than a tie. Should that game end up deadlocked, both Green Bay and Detroit qualify, and the Redskins are out.
The Washington game plan will be to treat the clash with the Giants as though it was a playoff affair. Not that working harder necessarily makes Gruden any smarter.
Tennessee is tricky because this is a one-off in which the rest of the team does not have a major motivation to come out and play hard in terms of circling the wagons. But Oakland is rather fascinating - McGloin is a smart QB that has made good decisions when offered the chance to play in the past, but was limited by the players around him, and the fact that his own physical gifts are just average. Now when you look at the surrounding cast, the Raiders might be able to perform well with his talent level at the helm. Bill Musgrave has had an awfully good season as the OC, and with these blockers, catchers and runners surrounding McGloin there are plenty of offensive options. I have only downgraded 2.5 so far, but that is fluid.
07:35 PM NBA [706] Detroit Pistons -3-111
08:05 PM NBA [710] Chicago Bulls -7.5 -150 (B+2)
09:05 PM NBA [715] TOTAL o215-150 (B+2) (Minnesota Timberwolves vrs Denver Nuggets)
10:35 PM NBA [719] TOTAL o224.5 -150 (B+2) (Toronto Raptors vrs Golden State Warriors)
09:00 PM CBB [761] UCLA -2-110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [1778] 1H Notre Dame -12.5 -115
07:05 PM NHL [52] Pittsburgh Penguins -168
07:35 PM NHL [56] Tampa Bay Lightning -110
1 unit bet pays 185....betdsi line
I just noticed Notre Dame starts out the gate real fast --- they are something like 9-1 ATS last 10 in 1H
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
FL Panthers are 17-5 in their last 22 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Pittsburgh Penguins are 40-12 in their last 52 home games
Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.
The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall. The Knicks are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Atlanta.
Nets are just 1-14 as the visiting team this year
The Pitt Panthers have won 16 consecutive non-conference home games against unranked opponents and are 134-5 overall versus non-conference foes all-time at the Petersen Events Center.
NC-Wilmington are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games.
UNLV is 3-12-1 against the spread in their last 16 road games
Fresno State is 17-5 ATS last 22 overall and 6-0 ATS last 6 vs. MWC....while New Mexico is 1-5-1 ATS last 7 vs. MCW.
Wolves vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 217?
Both Denver and Minnesota are in the bottom five for defensive efficiency this season, surrendering 108.4 and 108.0 points per 100 possessions respectively. With two such abysmal defenses I think it stands to reason that we'll see a high-scoring encounter when the two Northwest Division rivals clash at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado Wednesday night.
The 10-21 Timberwolves have played decent basketball lately and defeated the Hawks 104-90 on Monday. Karl-Anthony Towns put up another dominant performance and went 8-for-8 from the field, including 3-for-3 from beyond the arc.
The 13-18 Nuggets are also coming off a win on Monday when they defeated a shorthanded Clippers team 106-102, their fourth win in the past six games. Scoring has not been an issue for Denver this season, and the team averages 112.6 points per game home at Pepsi Center but are also giving up the same number of points.
Over is 10-3-1 in Denver's home games this season, and I think we'll see another one fly over the total tonight.
Wolves vs. Nuggets
Play: Wolves +4?
This is a poor matchup for the Nuggets with a Minnesota team that is well equiped to deal with a player like Nikola Jokic. Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng should be able to get Jokic in early foul trouble which will heavily favor the Wolves. Look for Wiggins and Lavine to play big minutes and provide plenty of offense tonight in Denver. I think the T- Wolves are a good value at +4 points and I'll back them on the road here on Wednesday night. Expect a lot of points to be scored in this one and Minnesota to step up in the 4th quarter and get the win.
Bulls -9
I have not problem laying this big number with the Bulls at home against the Nets. Chicago has had their struggles of late, but come in off a 90-85 win at home against the Pacers to snap a 3-game skid. This is a game the Bulls won't overlook and that should result in an easy double-digit win. The Nets won 120-118 at home against Charlotte last time out, but have not won consecutive games all season and are losing by more than 10 ppg after a win. Brooklyn is also just 1-14 away from home on the year, where they are getting outscored by 11.1 ppg. Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, while Nets are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after a home win scoring 110 or more points.
Cincinnati vs. Temple
Play: Under 136
Anytime you can get a Cincinnati game with a total of 130 or higher, there needs to be a wager placed. Since the 2010 season, they are 71-28 UNDER since 2010 (72%) with a total of 130 or higher. On the road with a total of 130+, the Bearcats are 11-1 UNDER since the start of last year with an average final total score of 121 points.
The Bearcats consistently rank as a top 20 defense and one of the slower tempo teams in the nation. They will be playing with triple revenge tonight against a Temple team that beat them both meetings last year and the final meeting in the 14-15 season. Temple appears that they will be without their senior point guard who led the AAC in assist:turnover ratio last year. The Owls have a lot of freshmen here that I don?t think are ready for this Cincy defense that will be eager to put the clamps down after Marshall put up 50 points in the first half against them last week. When playing with triple revenge, Cincy has held their last two opponents to 53 and 58 points (in 2015 and 2014 against UConn and Memphis).
Coach Fran Dunphy for Temple is a defensive minded coach. His guys can?t run with Cincinnati and win the game. The only way I think they have a chance is playing in the halfcourt with the Bearcats. I am looking for a tough fought game finishing right in the 129-130 range.
Georgetown vs. Marquette
Play: Georgetown +4?
Marquette has struggled over their past couple games, and Georgetown has already proved that this team can win on the road. Marquette is really struggling defensively as they are allowing 80 ppg to decent competition. Georgetown is the better coached team and in my opinion has a few more playmakers than Marquette. I think its great we are getting 4.5 as I think that Georgetown has a real shot at winning this game outright.
NC State -16?
NC State has gone through the season warmup series of games in good form. They did play Creighton, who is undefeated, and lost 112-94 in their fourth game of the season. Since, then the focus has been on the defensive end. NC State has allowed less than 37% shooting in the last 4 games. Rider is coming off a horrid shooting game making just 34% of their shots in a 78-67 SUATS loss at UMASS. Rider has not faced a team with the depth, athleticism, and talent of an NC State squad. We expect Rider to struggle to score throughout this game.
Kansas St. +2
One of the keys for me during bowl season is to try and zero in on teams that have something to play for, even if it falls into the intangibles category. The other is statistical. As anyone who has read, watched or listened to me over all these years is likely well aware, I like teams that can run the football and also stop the run. The way the game is played these days might well bear little similarity to the good ol' smashmouth days. But one constant that's still in place is that teams who excel in these two categories win football games. I suspect that will never change. Win the line of scrimmage, win the game.
Kansas State fits on both counts here. The Wildcats have solid overall numbers in the rushing department. But I think it's important to note that this Kansas State team has been improving at both aspects as the season has progressed. Fact is, the Wildcats don't throw it particularly well, so they have to get things done on the ground offensively. Opposing defensive coordinators are obviously well aware of this, yet the K-State ground game has continued to get better.
The Wildcats are also doing a good job of limiting opposing ground games. That's key here as Texas A&M was at its best this season when they were putting up big overland numbers. Trevor Knight getting hurt obviously impacted the Aggies offense. I expect Knight to be under center for this bowl game, but he's far more dangerous as a runner than passer. If the Wildcats are able to force the A&M QB to throw, that's a likely plus for Kansas State.
If I like Kansas State from a fundamentals standpoint, I like the intangibles even more. Texas A&M had dreams of something big earlier this season. But when the 6-0 Aggies got stomped by Alabama, the steam went out of their sails, and they limped down the stretch. Texas A&M managed only two wins post-Bama, and defeating New Mexico State and UTSA doesn't count for much.
On the other hand, Kansas State is living up to billing. This team was very young at the start of the season and it showed. But as they've gained experience, they've improved substantially. There are many who feel next year's Wildcats will be a force in the Big 12 and I'm one who believes Bill Snyder wants to head into the off-season with major momentum.
Snyder has downplayed that stance to some extent, but I think that's typical coachspeak. Actually, his history indicates there is indeed something to ending on a bowl game high note and having it carry over.
By no means am I suggesting Texas A&M doesn't care about winning this game. But my stance is that Kansas State is the hungrier team right now. The Wildcats ended the regular season on a far more positive note and they fit the stat profile I like best for bowl games.
I had to choose between four games I liked pretty much the same for this selection. But for the reasons listed here plus some other numbers that indicate the dog, I'm taking Kansas State plus the short number for my Bowl Game of the Year.
Indiana vs. Utah
Play: Utah -7
The Hoosiers and the Utes go to Santa Clara, California to play in the Foster Farms Bowl. It is very familiar for the Utes to take a trip to California as they play in the PAC 12, the trip for Indiana is not so familiar and we believe the motivation will not be there for the Hoosiers. Indiana is a team in total shambles after firing HC Kevin Wilson for player mistreatment allegations and this will be significant as first year DC Tom Allen now takes over the HC job. Allen is missing one of his key guys on offense as WR Simmie Cobbs Jr.?s will not be able to recover from an ankle injury in mid season to make it to the Bowl game. Utah has lost 3 out of their last 4 games but they have all been close. In fact in their 3 losses they have lost by a combined 14 points. Also two of those losses came against two of the top 10 teams in the country in Colorado and Washington. We believe RB Joe Williams will just dominate today on the offensive side of the ball for the Utes. This Utah club is ranked 20th in the nation in Turnover margin and Indiana's QB Richard Lagow has 16 picks this season. Watch for the Hoosiers to lose the ball a few times today. We see a very distracted Indiana club getting beat in all facets of the game today by a very good Utah club. Backing our selection is the fact that the Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Big Ten.
Utah -5? over Indiana
What we have here is an opportunity to take back what we like to call a ?short-priced? favorite. The Utes could have easily come into this game spotting the Hoosiers double-digits under different circumstances. However, the Utes have lost three of their overall four losses this season in the final third of their regular season docket so their stock is lower than it should be. The Utes lost in gut-wrenching fashion in each instance. We will dismiss Utah?s early season hiccup at California and focus on their last three losses. First, Utah lost at the tail end of the fourth quarter at home against Washington, the Pac-12 Champion and the #4 seed in the College Football Playoff by virtue of an uncanny punt return touchdown. Utah would take out its anger the following week on visiting Arizona State before it would be stunned in a two-point loss to Oregon. That loss to the Ducks sticks out, as the Utes lost as an 11-point favorite. Utah would follow this up with a regular season concluding loss at Colorado, the team who represented the Pac-12 South in the Conference?s Championship Game The Utes lost by just five points to Colorado but it should be noted that they were a 10?-point dog and had a chance to win that one too. Had fortune been reversed ever so slightly with Utah, we could potentially be discussing the Utes as a #4 seed in the College Football Playoff, but we will stay clear of hyperbole. Utah is a football team that is better than their record projects. Its wins over BYU, USC and others showcase the potential this team has.
The same cannot be said for Indiana, who does not own a win over a team with a record greater than .500 this season. In fact, IU defeated just one opponent who even managed to qualify for a bowl game (Maryland). Incidentally, Maryland lost to Boston College in the Quick Lane Bowl and allowed 36 points to a team that had trouble moving five yards all season. The Hoosiers remaining victims were FIU, Ball State, Michigan State, Purdue and Rutgers to comprise an effort that deemed them bowl eligible. The Hoosiers beat a brutally inept Rutgers team by one score, 33-27 and they barely got by an even worse Purdue team, 26-24. The Hoosiers have made a living off of bottom-feeding this year. It is also worth noting that four of IU?s six wins this season came at home. Now they have to travel across the country to face a Pac-12 opponent accustomed to playing on the West Coast on a regular basis. While the game may be neutral in terms of site, the match-up is anything but even and if all that doesn?t convince you, perhaps this will: Indiana just fired its coach heading into this game and will miss Kevin Wilson's offensive expertise while Utah?s Kyle Whittingham is 8-1 in Bowl games with a 7-2 ATS record.
Kansas State +125 over Texas A&M
For the Wabash Cannonballs a.k.a. the artist formerly known as K-State, Bill Snyder coached this unit up to win five of its last six and ultimately earn this bowl bid. Previous to this run, the Wildcats were sitting at 3-3 after they were rolled by the Big 12 Champion Oklahoma in Norman on October 15th. Since then, it?s been all-academic for the ?Cats, as they won on the road at Texas, Baylor and TCU, games they were expected to lose. The Wildcats are a small dog here and it?s worth noting that they?re 4-0 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season, including three outright wins. Snyder figures to have his team ready, as he always does in these Bowl games but this wager is actually more about fading the Aggies.
These two teams know each other well from A&M?s days as a Big 12 constituent before they moved on to greener pastures in the SEC. Since joining the SEC, the Aggies have certainly tallied up their fair amount of bumps and bruises and undoubtedly may look at this contest with malcontent because they had bigger things on their mind just a short while ago. You see, at one-point the Aggies sat at #4 in the College Football Playoff rankings. They were 6-0 at one point before playing Alabama and losing 33-14. The Aggies would respond the very next week with a 52-10 victory over New Mexico State before hitting the skids in the final four weeks.
A&M would go 1-3 down the backstretch. They lost at 5-7 Mississippi State while being defeated in their own backyard by both LSU and Mississippi, a team that failed to qualify for a bowl in 2016. The Aggies only win over this stretch was against UTSA but even the Roadrunners tested them. As a 27?-point choice, A&M beat UTSA by just 13. The Aggies are on a current run of 0-8 against the spread and are clearly a team that has been overvalued at an almost abusive capacity. They have been sluggish and flat since Alabama made an example out of them in Tuscaloosa in October and we don?t see anything changing here after a month layoff. A&M has played uninspired football and if one loss in the regular season can deplete their outlook on an entire season, we can only fathom how they will approach this bowl operating with a mindset that perhaps they could have been in a game of larger consequence. This mindset of course is superfluous because had they taken care of business against teams like Ole Miss and Miss State, they would assuredly be a viable candidate for a New Year?s Six Bowl Game. However no such event occurred and Kansas State will come in with the right attitude like they always do and put the Aggies out of their misery. If A&M was going to show something, wouldn't they have done so in the season finale at Kyle Field? Instead the Aggies were blown out that night. Now they face a team which is physical, will be well prepped and will care -- all the things that do not create an ideal bowl opponent, especially for a team that may have packed it in. K-State outright gets this call.
Philadelphia +120 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Blue Notes are without question the most overrated team in the West because they have 18 wins and 41 points in 35 games. They got hot for a while in late October and most of November but the wheels are starting to come off this below average team and so we?ll continue to fade them regularly. St. Louis has two wins in their last seven games, one against New Jersey and one against Dallas. Against Dallas, the Blues were outshot 38-22 and out-chanced 26-12. Had Larry King been in net for Dallas, St. Louis would?ve likely lost that one too. The Blues have amassed 23, 22, 27, 27, 26 and 23 shots on net in five of their last six. The Blues puck possession numbers are dropping rapidly. St. Louis now ranks 21st in puck possession and 26th out of 30 teams over the past 15 games in puck possession. The Blues have out-chanced three of their past 15 opponents. To make matters worse, their goaltending duo of Jake Allen and Carter Hutton (who starts tonight), is one of the worst combos in the league with Hutton sporting a weak .896 save percentage and Jake Allen sporting one that isn?t much better.
The Flyers have scored the fourth most goals in the league. They have also won 11 of their last 14 games including a 3-2 victory against the Caps the night before they lost to New Jersey, 4-0. That win against Washington essentially put the Flyers on holidays because they wanted nothing to do with that game in New Jersey the very next night prior to breaking. What is even more impressive about the Flyers current run (11-2-1 in their past 14 games) is that they have been held without a power-play goal in 15 chances over the past six games so once the PP starts scoring, Philly is going to be even more difficult to beat. The Flyers are trending up while the Blue notes are trending down in a big way. Furthermore, this will be the first of a three-game trip for the Flyers and it opens a six-game home-stand for the Blues. The St. Louis home stretch includes the outdoor Winter Classic matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks in five days from now and that?s a big deal in St. Louis right now, which could also negatively affect the Blues in this game and in their next game against Nashville too. It will mark the Blues first ever outdoor game.
Toronto +111 over FLORIDA
OT included. There is no question that the Florida Panthers are a feisty bunch that play hard every time they take the ice. They have several good pieces but so does every team in the NHL. The bottom line is that the Panthers have to play a REALLY good game to win and anything less means they are likely to lose. The Panthers are 15-14-6 or 15-20. They have played the 17th toughest schedule in the league and their **simple system rating (SRS) ranks them 23rd out of 30 teams. In 19 games against top 16 teams, Florida has four wins and 15 losses. They also have just four wins in their past 14 games and those victories occurred against Vancouver, Colorado, Detroit and Buffalo. An argument can be made for that quartet being four of the worst six teams in the league.
The best thing about the Maple Leafs is that they are 14-12-7 or 14-19 and have less points than the Panthers. That is so great because we?re getting prices on them against teams that are inferior to them and in this case, vastly inferior. Toronto might be the best five games under .500 team in the past 30 years. Offensively, the Leafs rank extremely high in all analytical categories and are first or second best in most of them. Mike Babcock has taken a slightly damaged Nazem Kadri and molded him into one of the most effective and underrated players in the game. Kadri is wickedly talented (both offensively and defensively) and has now earned himself top-six minutes on one of Toronto?s top two lines. Toronto?s last two wins were over Colorado and Arizona so not much stock is being put into it but they did outscore that pair 10-1. The Maple Leafs have allowed three goals or less in 13 straight games and two or less in eight of those so it?s not just offense that Babcock is working on. Toronto is an upper echelon team that is priced like an average one and it?s something we must continue to try to take advantage of.
**SRS is a rating that takes into account average goal differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in goals above/below average, where zero is average. (Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method).
NFL:
There are only a small handful of games that actually impact the playoff seedings and matchups this week - there are 10 teams that know their seasons will extend and three that know that a win gets them in (with a slight * next to Washington, which I will get to in a moment). But as noted in some of the thread discussions last week, it is not just about playoff positioning for the teams, but also a focus on how they can best develop across the remaining practice time/game time that is left. That particularly matters with some new teams in the mix. So for ease of organization, I will start setting the key storylines now, so that the day-by-day reading can be the most efficient, going alphabetically by conference ?
AFC
HOUSTON ? You will read and hear form the Sports Mediaverse that The Texans have nothing to play for this week, already being locked into the #4 seed. I would not buy into that notion. The offense is a long way from being playoff-ready, so Bill O?Brien?s optimal move is to prepare Tom Savage for this week as though it was a playoff game. That could also impact the decision making on Lamar Miller ? instead of getting another week off to get back to full health, he may be on the field at Tennessee so that the offense can better function as a unit.
O?Brien?s take - "I think anytime you line up, you play to win. I think that's what we're all about here with the Houston Texans. I think it's important to win anytime you play, in this case on Sunday. We'll be smart about it, we're going to go out there and do everything we can against a difficult opponent. We're going to go out there and play to win the game.?
And then there is the defense. I brought that group to the lead on Friday noting that while their rating on my charts, and those of the Football Outsiders, show them to be a bit above average, they lead the NFL for fewest yards allowed. That measurement is not ordinarily of great importance, but it is how the official league statistics rate the ?#1 Defense?, and the Houston players have been open in terms of what that means to them. That group also needs some playing time as a unit before the playoffs begin, with Whitney Mercilus, Jonathan Joseph and John Simon all returning from injuries vs. the Bengals. Will maintaining that #1 rating be a part of the consciousness of the Houston coaching staff this week? I believe so, and I will be revisiting that notion as the player rotations get set.
KANSAS CITY ? The Chiefs take the field with an opportunity to be the #2 seed, should they win and the Raiders lose at Denver. Since an Oakland loss would not be a shock without Derek Carr, this is a full prep week for Andy Reid and his staff, which means treating this game like it was a playoff affair.
MIAMI - This is not an easy week for Adam Gase. The Dolphins will play a road playoff game next week no matter what the outcomes are, but there is a major difference between the options ? a win over the Patriots could mean a trip to Houston instead of Pittsburgh, should Kansas City also lose. Like O?Brien, Gase also would like to have more time to get his QB playoff-ready; Matt Moore has played well in replacing Ryan Tannehill, but will still go into the post-season with only three starts under his belt.
Now the problem ? the defense has a lot of injured components right now, with already-thinned groups at DB (Reshad Jones out for the season) and LB (Koa Misi on IR) now having to deal with Byron Maxwell and Isa Abdul-Quddus being question marks in the secondary, and Jelani Jenkins dealing with a knee injury at LB. What the Dolphins do with that defensive depth chart will be something to watch, especially after that unit was on the field for 90 plays at Buffalo.
NEW ENGLAND - It could not be more simple for the Patriots: a win clinches the top seed in the AFC throughout the playoffs. Bill Belichick has been here before and knows the drill, not just in terms of handling his team, but also in deftly addressing the questions that surround such weeks. He was at his acerbic best on Monday when asked if any players would be rested this week -
"Yeah, I mean, look, I don't really understand that question. We have, I don't know how many starters we have, but we have a lot more than we ... we can only inactivate seven players. So this isn't like a preseason game where you have 75 guys on your roster. It's a regular-season game. So I don't really understand that whole line of questioning. I'm not saying I'm a great mathematician or anything, but the numbers just don't add up for that type of conversation."
OAKLAND ? The Raiders will take the field with the opportunity to wrap up the AFC West and at least the #2 seed, and possibly even the #1 if the Patriots lost at Miami. That naturally means a prime focus, and there is also the developmental rush taking place with the offense, tweaking things for Matt McGloin, which is one of the prime subplots of the week.
This one will be a fascinating case study because while McGloin brings limitations to the QB position, he will have three Pro Bowl OL in front of him, the dynamic tandem of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree out wide, and a deep group of RBs, that have shown ability both carrying the ball and catching it. And in this second season in Oakland it is once again the opportunity for Jack Del Rio to focus on building out his program, trying to lay the best possible foundation going forward. As such you can also file this away for notions of his processes -
?It?s a tough game. Things happen in this game. It?s all about the team. It?s all about us moving on with the next opportunity and pulling together as a group of men and being unselfish and sacrificing for each other. It doesn?t change. It doesn?t change regardless of who it is. It?s about the team. It?s about us winning. That?s not in any way meant to be insensitive. You always show love and appreciation for anybody who was banged up, but the team does carry on. That?s what we do.?
There is a fascinating "game inside the game" there, and it does go to Bill Musgrave. Atlanta came to this field and controlled the Denver defense by throwing the ball to the RBs, which was a major theme point here. What do the Raiders do about as well as any team in the league? Isolate their RBs and make plays through the air, Murray/Richard/Ozawale/Washington combining for 86 catches. This is not an easy thing to incorporate into a handicap because we can't be sure any particular coach will read a game the way that another did, but it can mean some opportunities. Oakland only completed four passes to the RBs in the first win over the Broncos, but a big part of that was the running game controlling things so well (RBs got 215 yards at 5.5 per attempt) that they did not have to stretch the playbook much.
PITTSBURGH ? The Steelers have precious little going on this week, having been locked in to the #3 seed regardless of any outcomes. Because this is a veteran group that doesn?t need much more work, but could use a little rest, this essentially becomes the bye for them that a #1 or #2 seed would get the following weekend. I don?t expect to see Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell or Antonio Brown take the field on offense, and would not be surprised if at least James Harrison got the week off defensively.
Hence, a scramble being thrown in on one of the side elements of our endeavor ? after holding back the Steelers as the final piece of the Suviror Pool puzzle the circumstances of the past couple of weeks have removed what could have been a great position, Pittsburgh needing the game and being favored in double figures, to one in which the search has been opened up. As such I will move the Survivor Pool take form Wednesday to Thursday this week, to allow for a deeper dive across the league.
NFC
ATLANTA ? The picture is clear for the Falcons: beat the Saints and they lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, and earn a bye. Dan Quinn has already been direct and to the point - ?It?s all out there for us. We are going to battle for it in every way that we can against New Orleans. We know there is an opportunity for us there and we are going to go for it in the biggest way that we can.?
DALLAS ? There will be a lot to follow here. The Cowboys have put themselves into the position of having back-to-back bye weeks, should that be their choice, and if I was in charge I would use this week to get Tony Romo some playing time at QB, something that could prove to be invaluable should Dak Prescott get injured in the playoffs. And while I would have Ezekial Elliott out there for a bit to stay in playing rhythm, not wanting him to sit out for two weeks, there is almost no chance I would have him on the field in the second half at Philadelphia. But I?m not Jerry Jones.
Jones has already taken the lead on setting this week?s stage, and that stage calls for Prescott to be playing the lead - ?We?re just not concerned about him (Romo) having play time, but sure wouldn?t want him to get any time other than playing behind our first. ?Dak is gaining on it. That game out there tonight made Dak a better quarterback. He played very well. He really made some good decisions. You don?t want to mess up those reps. For him to have played like he played against Detroit, I think he?s a better quarterback. At this stage, he?s just gaining on it. So you make a big case for him to play against Philadelphia to be a better quarterback for the playoffs.?
?We?ve got the book on Tony. We?re seeing him work at practice, and that?s enough. ?We have a real good feel. We have a very good feel for how he could do. Romo, not to play him, we don?t feel like that any gain we?d get from him stepping out there and running a few plays or a series of plays or several plays would be worth the risk.?
Where the Cowboys do have some issues are injuries on defense, but for now pencil the game vs. the Eagles as one of the most difficult prices to set on this week?s board.
DETROIT/GREEN BAY ? I will combine these two because the motivations are the same; the winner gets the NFC North, the loser is either out of the playoffs completely, if Washington has won earlier in the day, or the final NFC Wild Card team. Of course, there is also the notion of a tie game, which I will save for the Redskins in a moment.
There is already a plot twist in play in building a handicap for the matchup, the Packers getting the benefit of two added preparation days. This may particularly matter because the Green Bay bye was back on October 2, so the Packers have been going through a rather sustained slog. Mike McCarthy will set the stage this week by not having his players back on the practice field until Wednesday -
?I love it today. It was a challenge on the front side of it. Any time you get into those six-day weeks and things like that this late in the season it?s obviously a pull. And I just go off what our own personal experience has been playing 10 straight games, coming out of a Thursday night game against Chicago. That?s a grind. That?s the first time we?ve had to do that. That makes a big difference. We made it through. Having the extra day will benefit us, I hope. We?re going to use it, that?s for sure and really just focus on the mental aspect of it and get ready for the Lions.?
NY GIANTS - The Giants are locked in to the #5 seed in the NFC regardless of the Sunday outcomes, but can?t do any look-ahead prep, with there being prospects of playing at Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay or Seattle. While there is the obvious temptation of avoiding injury, there is also the fact that the offense is not playoff-ready, with those three Eli Manning interceptions against the Eagles not the ideal momentum to carry forward. So will Eli be on the field for the opening possession at Washington -
"My take is to play. I think to go in there, play well and try to find a good rhythm offensively going against a team in the division, a team you know well and they know us. I think that's the mindset. Until I'm told differently, that's how I'm taking it."
That will provide some interesting reading as the week progresses, especially in terms of how the stores set the First Half line.
SEATTLE ? With New Orleans/Atlanta having been pushed back to a late start, the Seahawks will kick off with the opportunity to move up to the #2 seed, which they get by winning, and having the Falcons lose. But they still need to win to wrap up the #3 seed, since a loss to the 49ers would put them behind the Green Bay/Detroit winner. But this is another situation that is not about just positioning, but instead the Seahawks showing that they are good enough to win in the post-season.
Pete Carroll was blunt about it - ?I don?t think it?s alarming. I just think it?s what we?re working with. Obviously, it?s going to be really difficult to expect us to play a great game until we do.?
TAMPA BAY ? Several things have to happen for the Buccaneers to be on the practice field next week, and naturally it all starts with beating Carolina. So a young team on the rise, with a first year HC at the helm, has nothing better to do than to game plan as though this is a playoff affair vs. the Panthers. I will be following that closely, because the Bucs may be shaping up as a prime Survivor Pool option given the brewing Pittsburgh apathy towards this week?s scoreboard.
WASHINGTON - Outside of those that had Dallas & Over tickets last night, perhaps no one enjoyed watching the Monday Night game play out more than the Redskins. The first matter of business is to beat the Giants on Sunday, a task that might be made easier by Ben McAdoo?s player rotation (as noted above, something to be following closely). Then what do Jay Gruden and his players get to do? Sit in front of a television set, and root for Packers/Lions to end in anything other than a tie. Should that game end up deadlocked, both Green Bay and Detroit qualify, and the Redskins are out.
The Washington game plan will be to treat the clash with the Giants as though it was a playoff affair. Not that working harder necessarily makes Gruden any smarter.
Tennessee is tricky because this is a one-off in which the rest of the team does not have a major motivation to come out and play hard in terms of circling the wagons. But Oakland is rather fascinating - McGloin is a smart QB that has made good decisions when offered the chance to play in the past, but was limited by the players around him, and the fact that his own physical gifts are just average. Now when you look at the surrounding cast, the Raiders might be able to perform well with his talent level at the helm. Bill Musgrave has had an awfully good season as the OC, and with these blockers, catchers and runners surrounding McGloin there are plenty of offensive options. I have only downgraded 2.5 so far, but that is fluid.
