06:30 PM CBB [517] Villanova -2.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [535] Auburn +5.5 -110
08:00 PM CBB [545] Oklahoma State -1-110
11:00 PM CBB [582] Nevada -2.5 -110
10:35 PM NBA [509] Memphis Grizzlies -2-110
10:35 PM NBA [512] Golden State Warriors -16.5 -115
07:05 PM NHL [1] Winnipeg Jets +133
08:05 PM NHL [5] New York Rangers +106
010:05 PM NHL [8] Calgary Flames -1.5 +155
10:05 PM NHL [10] Vancouver Canucks -143
1 unit bet pays 985....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
I believe the value is fair because the markets have been slow on the uptick with the Red Storm. For whatever reason Mullin could not get them focused for those games against Delaware State and LIU-Brooklyn, which were true clunkers, but also clunkers that have a huge amount of point spread influence because of what those scores look like in the Pomeroy/Sagarin models. Those games don't reflect the kind of energy I have seen from the team in Big East play, yet will continue to weigh down their power rating.
Creighton will not cause physical matchup problems in terms of size or speed but will tax the concentration level of the St. John's defense - the Blue Jays ran through them for 190 points on 61-114 shooting in a pair of wins and covers LY, and they are leading the nation in 3-point shooting so far this season. But those previous losses can also can mean a learning experience for a young defense that can play with better purpose tonight. I get small chimes should +8 show.
Georgia Tech at Duke
Play: Duke -18.5
After shocking North Carolina in its ACC opener, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will attempt to take the other half of Tobacco Road down on Wednesday night when they invade Cameron Indoor for a battle with the win hungry Duke Blue Devils. This will likely be Coach K?s final game before going under the knife for back surgery, so a pristine effort from the home team is likely after getting embarrassed in Blacksburg over the weekend.
This rivalry has been dominated by the Dookies who enter this meeting having won nine in a row while covering the closing odds in six of those contests. That said, each of the last two meetings have been pretty competitive with Duke only winning 80-71 and 72-66 as 4 and 17 point favorites respectively. Georgia Tech played way over its head in the second half against the Tar Heels, yet still only shot 41.5 percent from the floor and was outrebounded by nine. They pulled it off by draining 28 of 33 free throw attempts. Duke doesn?t send its opposition to the line nearly as much as UNC, and they won?t be getting the calls in this one either. Look for Duke to rebound in a big way and take its frustration out on an opponent its buried for the last six years.
PLAY: IOWA STATE +8.5
Baylor is looking like a serious contender to be playing basketball on the final weekend of the season. The Bears have been a dominant entry, and really don?t appear to have any true liabilities.
But Iowa State is far from being a pushover, and I expect the Cyclones to be about as focused as it gets tonight. This is a team with five senior starters and I?m quite sure the four straight losses absorbed at the hands of the Bears the last two years is more than a minor irritation for every member of the team.
I think this game is going to be a real battle. Solving that Baylor defense won?t be an easy task for the Cyclones. But don?t sleep on this underdog, as they?ve got some pretty impressive numbers of their own.
Baylor is clearly the rightful favorite in this game. But I see the number as being generous enough to make a case for the dog, as I just don?t see the Cyclones getting blown out in a game they want badly. I?ll opt to take the points with Iowa State tonight.
Creighton vs. St. John's
Play: Creighton -5?
The Blue Jays had their chances to knock-off top-ranked Villanova at home last time out. Creighton lost by 10, but the game was tied with less than five minutes to go. I expect the Jays to stay focused as they look to land right back in the win column. They won't take St. John's for granted, only needing to look at the Red Storm's upset of Butler last week. And thanks to the Johnnies' three game winning streak, we're getting value with the boys from Omaha. CU is extremely deep, can over-match SJU's guards, while owning a strong inside game we don't believe the host can match. The Jays enter on a 19-9-1 ATS conference run and they're on a 5-0 ATS run as road chalk. CU swept last season's meetings and we'll back them here.
Quinnipiac vs. Canisius
Play: Quinnipiac +9
The Canisius Golden Griffins have won six straight, and I cashed in when they beat Sienna at home on Monday. They appear to be overvalued here in this game though, asked to cover a big number against a competitive conference rival. Two of their last three wins came in overtime, and they just barely held on to beat Sienna by three points. Quinnipiac is coming off a win on the road at Niagara, and the Bobcats have won outright in two of their last three visits to Canisius. The road team has actually won five of the last six in this series, and Quinnipiac is 8-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog in the 7-12 point range. There doesn't appear to be a lot of separation between the two teams, as they are both allowing opponents to average just over 80 points per game. Quinnipiac has scored an average of 71 points per game on the road, just four points less than Canisius is averaging at home. The visitors should have a huge edge on the boards, and I expect a close game here in Buffalo.
Quinnipiac @ Canisius
Pick: Under 163
We have a high total, but the Quinnipiac Bobcats are ranked #245 in the nation in shooting 42% as a team and 68.4% from the charity stripe. Quinnipiac plays its fifth road game over the last six contests and averages 71 points per game away from home. The UNDER is 12-4 when following a straight-up win by the Bobcats. Canisius is home where it plays its best defense, allowing 73.6 points per game here. Canisius is 7-3 UNDER the total at home and 10-3 UNDER as chalk.
Louisville at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame +1
Louisville has faced three mammoth games in a row beating Kentucky, losing to Virginia, and beating Indiana. The first game of the 2017 for the Cardinals won?t be any easier with a trip to South Bend looking to avoid a 0-2 start in ACC play. This will be just the second true road game of the season for Louisville however with the other an unimpressive nine-point win at Grand Canyon. As usual the defensive numbers are great for Rick Pitino?s squad but the shooting numbers are poor, hitting just 33 percent from 3-point range. Notre Dame is 12-2 with only a pair of competitive losses to top 15 caliber teams away from home. The Irish are 9-0 S/U at home and the team has four top 100 wins already this season after squeaking out a narrow overtime win at Pittsburgh on Saturday to open the conference season. Notre Dame has the second lowest turnover rate in the nation which is critical against Louisville?s pressure and Notre Dame is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at every level including incredibly hitting over 84 percent from the free throw line to lead the nation. Notre Dame won by five in the only meeting between these teams last season en route to a second straight Elite Eight season and the Cardinals haven?t defeated Notre Dame since the 2013 Big East Tournament in Louisville?s national championship season with the teams splitting in the regular season that year. Notre Dame only has four home losses combined since March of 2014 and last season Louisville was just 4-7 S/U in true road games.
Miami at Syracuse
Play: Miami -2.5
Syracuse is a hot mess right now, worthy of fading at every reasonable opportunity! And with the Orange priced near pick ?em in a game against a superior foe, this certainly looks like a reasonable opportunity to bet against a squad in the midst of a pointspread free-fall.
To say that Syracuse hasn?t beaten anybody all year would not be an understatement. Their signature victory in non-conference play came against Monmouth. Their seven other wins? Colgate, Holy Cross, South Carolina State, North Florida, Eastern Michigan, Boston University and Cornell, not exactly a group of ACC caliber foes.
What?s wrong with the Orange? Let?s start with their defense. Jim Boeheim?s legendary, trademark 2-3 matchup zone. In years past, this defense has created turnovers in bunches and limited opponents open looks, particularly in the paint. That hasn?t happened this year. Syracuse has allowed a 1.21 assist-to-turnover ratio overall ? waaaaaaay above Boeheim?s historical norms ? despite facing all of those weak foes in November and December.
Syracuse can?t rebound this year either, getting hammered on the offensive glass, night after night. That?s particularly bad news against a big, physical team like Miami, a squad that ranks #14 in the country in offensive rebound rate, with Dewan Huell, Kamari Murphy and Ebuka Izundu all cleaning up Hurricane misses with easy putbacks.
St. John?s just hung 93 on the Orange, shooting 53% from the floor and notching 27 assists on 34 made baskets. The Red Storm aren?t going to approach 90 points in many Big East games this year. Then Boston College hung 96 on them over the weekend: 57% shooting, 28 assists on 36 made field goals. The Eagles, like the Johnnies, aren?t likely to be scoring in the 90?s again anytime soon, a clear indicator of how bad the Syracuse zone really is right now.
Miami has what it takes to win in the Carrierdome. Jim Larranaga?s squad beat Syracuse by double digits at home last year, and won SU here in Syracuse the year before. Floor leaders Davon Reed and Ja?Quan Newton were instrumental in both of those wins, primed to deliver the hat trick tonight. The Hurricanes have won seven straight, brimming with confidence.
And, following a string of seven straight ATS losses ? five of them coming in games that the Hurricanes won, but not by a big enough margin ? the betting markets have really cooled off on Miami. Not only are the Hurricanes the better, more confident and more chemistry squad, they?re also a legitimately undervalued commodity in this pointspread range, where a SU win should equate with a pointspread cover.
My free play is on Loyola-Chicago minus the small number against Northern Iowa. Now, I'm betting the oddsmakers made this number so low because the Panthers are generally a top-tier mid-major. But coming to Chicago, they're 5-8 on the season and catch the Ramblers playing well.
Loyola-Chicago is 10-5 this season, and 7-1 at home. The Ramblers are scoring 69.5 points per game in Chicago, where they're allowing a mere 61 points per contest. This is a big statement game for the Ramblers, who won this meeting last season in Chicago, 59-56.
In fact, LIC swept the series last season, and should have plenty of confidence with the Panthers rolling in mired in a four-game slide. Loyola has lost three in a row, but it won't matter today, as it bounces back nicely against Northern Iowa. 3* LOYOLA-CHICAGO
RICHMOND -8 over Fordham
Indeed the Spiders have some issues, specifically in the rebounding department where they rank No. 319 among 347 Division I teams. Richmond also has a couple of players out in Marshall Wood and Grant Golden but Golden was only getting 7? minutes per game while Wood was getting about three times that. Still, Wood is not some key player that the Spiders need to defeat this intruder because the Rams of Fordham remain one of the most beatable mid-major programs over the last decade and nothing has changed this year. Fordham started 5-1 but played six dregs in East Tennessee State, NY Institute of Technology, Fairleigh Dickinson, Saint Peter?s and Lipscomb. They lost to East Tennessee State by 37 points, 96-59. Fordham?s only victory since beating Lipscomb way back on November 20 came against Central Connecticut. This is a Rams? team that was destroyed by St. Johns by 28 points and has lost to Sacred Heart, UT Arlington, Harvard and Manhattan among others. The Rams have lost seven of eight and rank No. 343 out of 347 teams in rebounding margin so Richmond?s weakness is Fordham?s weakness. The Rams strength of schedule ranks 301st so not only are these traveling dregs losing often, they are losing to other dregs and they're also 0-4 on the road.
There is not always value in underdogs. In this case we have what we trust is a short priced favorite because of the aforementioned injuries and because a superior Richmond team from last season defeated Fordham on this same court by just four points. That matters not because anything can happen in one game such as a cold shooting night. What matters more is that the Spiders were a -12 point choice in that game last year and subsequently went into Fordham and beat them by 15 points in the rematch. Another reason that the Spiders are short priced here is because they have lost six games already this season and have not won consecutive games since Nov 20-22 when they defeated Robert Morris and Hampton. However, Richmond is 1-0 in conference play after beating Davidson by two on Saturday. This is a Spiders? team that has defeated Boston College and took Maryland to OT before losing by just six. The Spiders strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 183rd in the country, which is 118 positions higher than Fordham?s SOS. It?s also worth noting that the odds maker?s great respect for Richmond was revealed when they made the Spiders just a 6?-point pooch against Maryland on a neutral floor. Maryland is 13-2 and high projections this year. With a chance to go 2-0 in conference play, the Spiders are not going to make the mistake of taking this outfit lightly like they did last year. This is the lowest price that the Spiders have been over Fordham at the Robins Center in the past four seasons and the second lowest over the past decade. That provides an opportunity that we?re not going to miss and we suggest getting on this one before it goes up.
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops?
Much like the betting markets can only drop Duke so far because of the reputation and pedigree, the current mess that is Syracuse basketball is left in a fair range tonight because of past memories of Orange success. That allows for a ticket on #519 Miami (7:00 Eastern), with plenty of -1 out there this morning, and value at -2 or less.
I went into some detail on the Syracuse struggles a few days before Christmas, after what appeared to be a meltdown of a 93-60 home loss to mediocre St. John?s. That now looks more like ?business as usual?, after the Orange were drubbed 96-81 vs. Boston College, another mediocre team, on Sunday. To allow 90+ to those teams is truly difficult to comprehend, and it will almost assuredly go down as the best offensive game either of them will have all season. But after so many years of plugging the right pieces into his 2-3 zone, this time Joe Boeheim has a puzzle that will not connect up. They are not getting into passing lanes at anywhere near the usual rate to create turnovers; are allowing far too many open shots; and in particular a problem tonight is their failure to clear the boards on defense ? they are #284 in the nation in OR% allowed, and a physical Miami front-court just happens to be #14 in the land in grabbing caroms on that end. Yet there has been a fluky statistical break that keeps the Orange from looking even worse ? opponents have only knocked down 62.2 percent of FT attempts against them, #11 in the nation, which has left a lot of points off of the scoreboard.
Jim Larranaga not only knows the Syracuse zone well, but gets an extra preparation day off of that solid 81-63 win over N.C. State to open ACC play on Saturday. In JaQuan Newton and Davon Reed he has veteran floor leaders that fueled wins and covers over Syracuse in each of the last two seasons, so putting together a game plan to take advantage of what is currently a dysfunctional Orange outfit (DaJuan Coleman has gone from being a starter to not even leaving the bench vs. Boston College) should not be a major challenge for this bunch.
There is something about the modern marketplace in play here that is worth addressing - I would have put it in the lead, but it might have run too long. This is absolutely a proto-type letdown spot for Georgia Tech, and a bounce-back for Duke, off of those rather startling scores in their respective ACC openers. And once upon a time a bet against GT, or on Duke, might have worked. But those corrections from extreme performances have become so well known by the markets over time that we do not see the lines adjusted for them much at all anymore. The concept that the markets get too influenced by what they saw last, and recency bias? Barely a flicker of that out there some days.
Did Tech get upgraded for dumping North Carolina? Not at +20. Did Duke get downgraded for losing wire-to-wire at Virginia Tech? Not at -20. About 20 years ago this line might have been Duke -16, with an over-reaction to the last game of each team. A decade ago it might have been -18. But the modern markets take a much different look at these things - GT could indeed have a major letdown, yet still lose within this point spread.
After a couple of seasons in which Providence was one of the most consistent teams around, which you can attach to Cooley and Kris Dunn, I believe the roller coaster rides the Friars have taken this season is simply going to be who they are - they don't have size (freshman Kalif Young is the only player resembling a center, and he only has only played 14.5 minutes per game), depth (only 4 players average more than 5.0 points per game), or experience (no seniors, except for little-used Casey Wording, who only has 11 career points).
Each of those key components has been a factor in those ugly road games - usually we count on a Cooley team to play with tenacity, but the lack of size and experience led to some snowball-effects when things began to go bad. For now they are a difficult team for me to trust because their range of potential outcomes for any game is so wide. So I will try to watch and learn tonight, but won't be close to reaching into pocket for anything.
Rutgers vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -12
I have no problem laying this number at home on the Spartans. Michigan State is trending up right now. They come in having won 3 straight with 2 impressive wins to open up Big Ten play. First they went on the road and beat Minnesota 75-74 as a 5.5-point dog and then they knocked off Northwestern 61-52 as a 2.5-point home favorite. Now they welcome back freshmen sensation and the teams best player in Miles Bridges, who has missed the last 7 games with an ankle injury. Rutgers comes in at 11-4, but have dropped 3 straight since taking a step up in competition, losing by 11 at Seton Hall, 20 at Wisconsin and 13 at home to Penn State. There's going to be a buzz in East Lansing with Bridges return and this Rutgers team is in for a long night. Note that Izzo has had no problem against the Scarlet Knights, winning all 3 meetings by at least 20+ with a 34-point win in the only game they have hosted Rutgers.
Georgetown vs. Providence
Play: Providence -3?
I really like the value here with the Friars laying a small number at home against the Hoyas. Providence comes in having lost 3 straight. The first was a surprising 67-79 loss at BC as a 10-point favorite, then they fell at Xavier and Butler in their first two games back from Christmas break. I believe it was the Friars undervalued here, as we can expect a max effort here at home to put an end to the losing streak. Keep in mind that Providence is a perfect 9-0 at home this season and have won 4 straight over the Hoyas.
Georgetown is a team that I just don't trust, especially on the road. The Hoyas had won 6 straight, but it was against weak competition. They did have a 78-71 win at Syracuse during this stretch, but the Orange are slumping and clearly not at the same level as years past. Georgetown has since lost 66-76 at Marquette and 76-81 at home to Xavier. The Hoyas are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games as a dog of 6.5 points or less.
Grizzlies vs. Clippers
Play: Grizzlies -1
The Key: Not all back-to-backs are created equal. The Grizzlies lost last night to the Lakers, and now they play the Clippers tonight, meaning they don't have to travel at all as this game will also be played inside Staples Center. And they had two days off before the Lakers game. After a poor performance last night, look for the Grizzlies to re-focus here and take care of the depleted Clippers. The Clippers remain without their 2 best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. To stay they've struggled without them would be an understatement. The Clippers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Grizzlies are 23-11 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Los Angeles.
Heat vs. Kings
Play: Kings -8
The Sacramento Kings have turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won five of their last seven games overall coming in, including a 120-113 win in Denver last night as 4-point underdogs.
I know the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back now, but so will the Miami Heat, who lost 90-99 in Phoenix last night. The Heat have now lost six straight and 14 of their last 17 games overall. They aren't able to handle these back-to-back situations because of all their injuries right now.
Indeed, the Heat have been hit harder by injuries than any team this season. They are going to be without Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh McRoberts tonight. Both James Johnson and Dion Waiters are questionable, while Tyler Johnson and Goran Dragic are expected to play through injuries.
This is simply a mash unit right now that cannot be competitive given the situation. Sacramento is 7-0 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Expect a double-digit blowout in favor of the home team tonight.
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Over 224
Damian Lillard is unlikely to suit up for the Blazers on Wednesday night, and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total (relatively speaking) in this one.
The last time these two teams hooked up in mid-December they combined to score 225 points as the Warriors rolled to a 45-point rout. Their first meeting this season, on the first night of November, totaled 231 points. This has been an 'over' series all the way in recent years.
The Blazers have been struggling offensively without Lillard in the lineup but I do expect them to break loose thanks to the Warriors pace alone. Golden State has actually been quite effective defensively this season, but still gives up over 104 points per game at home.
Offensively, the Warriors continue to light it up, particularly here at Oracle Arena, where they average over 121 ppg. They'll face little resistance against a Blazers squad that gives up over 113 ppg on the road.
Oklahoma City vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte
The Thunder are battling the 22-14 Jazz in the Northwest Division while the Hornets and the 19-16 Hornets lead the 18-16 Atlanta Hawks in the Southeast by just a half-game. Both teams feature outstanding lead guards in Westbrook for OKC and Kemba Walker for Charlotte. With Durant off to Oakland, very few expected anything less than ?the Russell Westbrook Show? this year in OKC and he?s delivered. Westbrook scored 30 points, the 30th time he's reached that mark this season, in Monday?s 98-94 loss at Milwaukee but struggled from the floor, making 9 of 28 (note: he was 0-for-8 in the third quarter when the Bucks took their first lead!). However, he checks in averaging a triple-double on the season at 30.9-10.4-10.5
Walker doesn?t get as much ?pub? as Westbrook but the Hornets couldn?t do without him. He?s made a strong case to be an Eastern Conference All Star this season, averaging 23.0-4.2-5.4. Charlotte?s strength is its depth (something OKC does not have), as even though center Cody Zeller (10.7-6.2) is in the league's concussion protocol (listed day-to-day) and sixth-man Marco Belinelli (11.0) is out with a sprained ankle, the Hornets have more than just a few bodies to ?throw at? Westbrook and score points on the offensive end. Batum (14.9-7.6-5.9) is one of the league?s most versatile players plus even without Zeller and Belinelli, the Hornets have seven others who average between 5.1 and 10.2 PPG.
OKC got good news with the return of Oladipo (16.1 PPG) these last two games, after he had missed nine games with a wrist injury. He?s an important piece, as the Thunder really rely on the Westbrook-Oladipo backcourt and the center combo of Kanter (13.4-6.0) and Adams (12.0-7.7), to do most of the team's scoring. However, even with Oladipo back and Westbrook likely to put up yet another triple-double, I?m not sure the Thunder can trade points with the Hornets, who have averaged an impressive 109.5 PPG over their last eight games.
OKC has scored 80 and 94 points in the team's last two road games, falling to 8-8 on the road this year. Take the home team.
I think Memphis can be a solid handicapping fit here because I don't see much of a court advantage at all, but unfortunately many in the marketplace have invested money today with similar views, hence the +1.5 that had been available with the Grizzlies swinging over to the current offering. Memphis has been in Los Angeles since Sunday, and got to play at the Staples Center last night, so many of the usual negatives associated with a road team are not there. The flip side is that while the Clippers are short-handed they should be reasonably well-prepared, also having been hanging around at home since Sunday, with that win over Phoenix tucked in. I thought the Grizzlies were a good fit at +1 or better, a lesser fit at -1, but now the value chimes are not making the same sounds at -1.5.
Memphis got blitzed by some terrific Laker shooting last night; now time will begin to tell us if it was just a one-off, or if LAL is ready to begin making some positive steps.
Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars
Play: Montreal Canadiens +115
The Canadians are coming off a hard fought win over the Nashville Predators in O/T last night and now they head to Dallas to face the Stars. Getting some real nice value with Montreal here and we will take the underdog Canadians. Montreal are one of the best teams in the NHL and although they are on a back to back game, they have been very successful in this situation going 5-2 this year. The Stars have been playing very well of late winning 4 out of their last 6 games but will be without Captain Jamie Benn tonight who suffered a foot injury on Saturday. This will be a big blow to the Stars offense. Dallas allows almost 3 goals per game and we will see the Canadians who fired 43 shots at Pekka Rinne last night continue their offensive onslaught on one of the worse defensive teams in the league tonight. At the time of this writing Montreal was getting plus money at 115 and we will happily take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Stars are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. the Eastern Conference.
Winnipeg +132 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers are on our radar as a live dog in the second half of the season but as a favorite in this range, we?re not interested in them whatsoever. There are other issues in play here too. Florida has not played since New Year?s Eve and we see so many teams flat after an extended layoff. Throw in some meals and drinks with family and friends over the past week in the sweet sunshine and there?s a good chance that the Panthers will be flat here, especially in the early going. The Panthers have also allowed 36, 40, 41 and 39 shots on net in four consecutive games, thus, we?ll gladly take our chances here taking back a price like this against a team that has been bombarded with shots recently.
Winnipeg played last night in Tampa so they have already played once since New Year?s Eve and figure to be sharper than the Panthers. Besides that, the Jets have played some of their best hockey this year in the tail end of back-to-backs. The Jets have only played six times on consecutive days but have picked up five out of a possible six points (2-0-1) following a victory in the second leg of back-to-backs. There are many things we don?t like about the Jets but that discussion is for when we are fading them. What we know for sure is that the Jets have the better talent here, they are in a better situational spot and they also hold all the value. That?s more than enough ammunition to warrant a play.
07:00 PM CBB [535] Auburn +5.5 -110
08:00 PM CBB [545] Oklahoma State -1-110
11:00 PM CBB [582] Nevada -2.5 -110
10:35 PM NBA [509] Memphis Grizzlies -2-110
10:35 PM NBA [512] Golden State Warriors -16.5 -115
07:05 PM NHL [1] Winnipeg Jets +133
08:05 PM NHL [5] New York Rangers +106
010:05 PM NHL [8] Calgary Flames -1.5 +155
10:05 PM NHL [10] Vancouver Canucks -143
1 unit bet pays 985....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
I believe the value is fair because the markets have been slow on the uptick with the Red Storm. For whatever reason Mullin could not get them focused for those games against Delaware State and LIU-Brooklyn, which were true clunkers, but also clunkers that have a huge amount of point spread influence because of what those scores look like in the Pomeroy/Sagarin models. Those games don't reflect the kind of energy I have seen from the team in Big East play, yet will continue to weigh down their power rating.
Creighton will not cause physical matchup problems in terms of size or speed but will tax the concentration level of the St. John's defense - the Blue Jays ran through them for 190 points on 61-114 shooting in a pair of wins and covers LY, and they are leading the nation in 3-point shooting so far this season. But those previous losses can also can mean a learning experience for a young defense that can play with better purpose tonight. I get small chimes should +8 show.
Georgia Tech at Duke
Play: Duke -18.5
After shocking North Carolina in its ACC opener, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will attempt to take the other half of Tobacco Road down on Wednesday night when they invade Cameron Indoor for a battle with the win hungry Duke Blue Devils. This will likely be Coach K?s final game before going under the knife for back surgery, so a pristine effort from the home team is likely after getting embarrassed in Blacksburg over the weekend.
This rivalry has been dominated by the Dookies who enter this meeting having won nine in a row while covering the closing odds in six of those contests. That said, each of the last two meetings have been pretty competitive with Duke only winning 80-71 and 72-66 as 4 and 17 point favorites respectively. Georgia Tech played way over its head in the second half against the Tar Heels, yet still only shot 41.5 percent from the floor and was outrebounded by nine. They pulled it off by draining 28 of 33 free throw attempts. Duke doesn?t send its opposition to the line nearly as much as UNC, and they won?t be getting the calls in this one either. Look for Duke to rebound in a big way and take its frustration out on an opponent its buried for the last six years.
PLAY: IOWA STATE +8.5
Baylor is looking like a serious contender to be playing basketball on the final weekend of the season. The Bears have been a dominant entry, and really don?t appear to have any true liabilities.
But Iowa State is far from being a pushover, and I expect the Cyclones to be about as focused as it gets tonight. This is a team with five senior starters and I?m quite sure the four straight losses absorbed at the hands of the Bears the last two years is more than a minor irritation for every member of the team.
I think this game is going to be a real battle. Solving that Baylor defense won?t be an easy task for the Cyclones. But don?t sleep on this underdog, as they?ve got some pretty impressive numbers of their own.
Baylor is clearly the rightful favorite in this game. But I see the number as being generous enough to make a case for the dog, as I just don?t see the Cyclones getting blown out in a game they want badly. I?ll opt to take the points with Iowa State tonight.
Creighton vs. St. John's
Play: Creighton -5?
The Blue Jays had their chances to knock-off top-ranked Villanova at home last time out. Creighton lost by 10, but the game was tied with less than five minutes to go. I expect the Jays to stay focused as they look to land right back in the win column. They won't take St. John's for granted, only needing to look at the Red Storm's upset of Butler last week. And thanks to the Johnnies' three game winning streak, we're getting value with the boys from Omaha. CU is extremely deep, can over-match SJU's guards, while owning a strong inside game we don't believe the host can match. The Jays enter on a 19-9-1 ATS conference run and they're on a 5-0 ATS run as road chalk. CU swept last season's meetings and we'll back them here.
Quinnipiac vs. Canisius
Play: Quinnipiac +9
The Canisius Golden Griffins have won six straight, and I cashed in when they beat Sienna at home on Monday. They appear to be overvalued here in this game though, asked to cover a big number against a competitive conference rival. Two of their last three wins came in overtime, and they just barely held on to beat Sienna by three points. Quinnipiac is coming off a win on the road at Niagara, and the Bobcats have won outright in two of their last three visits to Canisius. The road team has actually won five of the last six in this series, and Quinnipiac is 8-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog in the 7-12 point range. There doesn't appear to be a lot of separation between the two teams, as they are both allowing opponents to average just over 80 points per game. Quinnipiac has scored an average of 71 points per game on the road, just four points less than Canisius is averaging at home. The visitors should have a huge edge on the boards, and I expect a close game here in Buffalo.
Quinnipiac @ Canisius
Pick: Under 163
We have a high total, but the Quinnipiac Bobcats are ranked #245 in the nation in shooting 42% as a team and 68.4% from the charity stripe. Quinnipiac plays its fifth road game over the last six contests and averages 71 points per game away from home. The UNDER is 12-4 when following a straight-up win by the Bobcats. Canisius is home where it plays its best defense, allowing 73.6 points per game here. Canisius is 7-3 UNDER the total at home and 10-3 UNDER as chalk.
Louisville at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame +1
Louisville has faced three mammoth games in a row beating Kentucky, losing to Virginia, and beating Indiana. The first game of the 2017 for the Cardinals won?t be any easier with a trip to South Bend looking to avoid a 0-2 start in ACC play. This will be just the second true road game of the season for Louisville however with the other an unimpressive nine-point win at Grand Canyon. As usual the defensive numbers are great for Rick Pitino?s squad but the shooting numbers are poor, hitting just 33 percent from 3-point range. Notre Dame is 12-2 with only a pair of competitive losses to top 15 caliber teams away from home. The Irish are 9-0 S/U at home and the team has four top 100 wins already this season after squeaking out a narrow overtime win at Pittsburgh on Saturday to open the conference season. Notre Dame has the second lowest turnover rate in the nation which is critical against Louisville?s pressure and Notre Dame is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at every level including incredibly hitting over 84 percent from the free throw line to lead the nation. Notre Dame won by five in the only meeting between these teams last season en route to a second straight Elite Eight season and the Cardinals haven?t defeated Notre Dame since the 2013 Big East Tournament in Louisville?s national championship season with the teams splitting in the regular season that year. Notre Dame only has four home losses combined since March of 2014 and last season Louisville was just 4-7 S/U in true road games.
Miami at Syracuse
Play: Miami -2.5
Syracuse is a hot mess right now, worthy of fading at every reasonable opportunity! And with the Orange priced near pick ?em in a game against a superior foe, this certainly looks like a reasonable opportunity to bet against a squad in the midst of a pointspread free-fall.
To say that Syracuse hasn?t beaten anybody all year would not be an understatement. Their signature victory in non-conference play came against Monmouth. Their seven other wins? Colgate, Holy Cross, South Carolina State, North Florida, Eastern Michigan, Boston University and Cornell, not exactly a group of ACC caliber foes.
What?s wrong with the Orange? Let?s start with their defense. Jim Boeheim?s legendary, trademark 2-3 matchup zone. In years past, this defense has created turnovers in bunches and limited opponents open looks, particularly in the paint. That hasn?t happened this year. Syracuse has allowed a 1.21 assist-to-turnover ratio overall ? waaaaaaay above Boeheim?s historical norms ? despite facing all of those weak foes in November and December.
Syracuse can?t rebound this year either, getting hammered on the offensive glass, night after night. That?s particularly bad news against a big, physical team like Miami, a squad that ranks #14 in the country in offensive rebound rate, with Dewan Huell, Kamari Murphy and Ebuka Izundu all cleaning up Hurricane misses with easy putbacks.
St. John?s just hung 93 on the Orange, shooting 53% from the floor and notching 27 assists on 34 made baskets. The Red Storm aren?t going to approach 90 points in many Big East games this year. Then Boston College hung 96 on them over the weekend: 57% shooting, 28 assists on 36 made field goals. The Eagles, like the Johnnies, aren?t likely to be scoring in the 90?s again anytime soon, a clear indicator of how bad the Syracuse zone really is right now.
Miami has what it takes to win in the Carrierdome. Jim Larranaga?s squad beat Syracuse by double digits at home last year, and won SU here in Syracuse the year before. Floor leaders Davon Reed and Ja?Quan Newton were instrumental in both of those wins, primed to deliver the hat trick tonight. The Hurricanes have won seven straight, brimming with confidence.
And, following a string of seven straight ATS losses ? five of them coming in games that the Hurricanes won, but not by a big enough margin ? the betting markets have really cooled off on Miami. Not only are the Hurricanes the better, more confident and more chemistry squad, they?re also a legitimately undervalued commodity in this pointspread range, where a SU win should equate with a pointspread cover.
My free play is on Loyola-Chicago minus the small number against Northern Iowa. Now, I'm betting the oddsmakers made this number so low because the Panthers are generally a top-tier mid-major. But coming to Chicago, they're 5-8 on the season and catch the Ramblers playing well.
Loyola-Chicago is 10-5 this season, and 7-1 at home. The Ramblers are scoring 69.5 points per game in Chicago, where they're allowing a mere 61 points per contest. This is a big statement game for the Ramblers, who won this meeting last season in Chicago, 59-56.
In fact, LIC swept the series last season, and should have plenty of confidence with the Panthers rolling in mired in a four-game slide. Loyola has lost three in a row, but it won't matter today, as it bounces back nicely against Northern Iowa. 3* LOYOLA-CHICAGO
RICHMOND -8 over Fordham
Indeed the Spiders have some issues, specifically in the rebounding department where they rank No. 319 among 347 Division I teams. Richmond also has a couple of players out in Marshall Wood and Grant Golden but Golden was only getting 7? minutes per game while Wood was getting about three times that. Still, Wood is not some key player that the Spiders need to defeat this intruder because the Rams of Fordham remain one of the most beatable mid-major programs over the last decade and nothing has changed this year. Fordham started 5-1 but played six dregs in East Tennessee State, NY Institute of Technology, Fairleigh Dickinson, Saint Peter?s and Lipscomb. They lost to East Tennessee State by 37 points, 96-59. Fordham?s only victory since beating Lipscomb way back on November 20 came against Central Connecticut. This is a Rams? team that was destroyed by St. Johns by 28 points and has lost to Sacred Heart, UT Arlington, Harvard and Manhattan among others. The Rams have lost seven of eight and rank No. 343 out of 347 teams in rebounding margin so Richmond?s weakness is Fordham?s weakness. The Rams strength of schedule ranks 301st so not only are these traveling dregs losing often, they are losing to other dregs and they're also 0-4 on the road.
There is not always value in underdogs. In this case we have what we trust is a short priced favorite because of the aforementioned injuries and because a superior Richmond team from last season defeated Fordham on this same court by just four points. That matters not because anything can happen in one game such as a cold shooting night. What matters more is that the Spiders were a -12 point choice in that game last year and subsequently went into Fordham and beat them by 15 points in the rematch. Another reason that the Spiders are short priced here is because they have lost six games already this season and have not won consecutive games since Nov 20-22 when they defeated Robert Morris and Hampton. However, Richmond is 1-0 in conference play after beating Davidson by two on Saturday. This is a Spiders? team that has defeated Boston College and took Maryland to OT before losing by just six. The Spiders strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 183rd in the country, which is 118 positions higher than Fordham?s SOS. It?s also worth noting that the odds maker?s great respect for Richmond was revealed when they made the Spiders just a 6?-point pooch against Maryland on a neutral floor. Maryland is 13-2 and high projections this year. With a chance to go 2-0 in conference play, the Spiders are not going to make the mistake of taking this outfit lightly like they did last year. This is the lowest price that the Spiders have been over Fordham at the Robins Center in the past four seasons and the second lowest over the past decade. That provides an opportunity that we?re not going to miss and we suggest getting on this one before it goes up.
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops?
Much like the betting markets can only drop Duke so far because of the reputation and pedigree, the current mess that is Syracuse basketball is left in a fair range tonight because of past memories of Orange success. That allows for a ticket on #519 Miami (7:00 Eastern), with plenty of -1 out there this morning, and value at -2 or less.
I went into some detail on the Syracuse struggles a few days before Christmas, after what appeared to be a meltdown of a 93-60 home loss to mediocre St. John?s. That now looks more like ?business as usual?, after the Orange were drubbed 96-81 vs. Boston College, another mediocre team, on Sunday. To allow 90+ to those teams is truly difficult to comprehend, and it will almost assuredly go down as the best offensive game either of them will have all season. But after so many years of plugging the right pieces into his 2-3 zone, this time Joe Boeheim has a puzzle that will not connect up. They are not getting into passing lanes at anywhere near the usual rate to create turnovers; are allowing far too many open shots; and in particular a problem tonight is their failure to clear the boards on defense ? they are #284 in the nation in OR% allowed, and a physical Miami front-court just happens to be #14 in the land in grabbing caroms on that end. Yet there has been a fluky statistical break that keeps the Orange from looking even worse ? opponents have only knocked down 62.2 percent of FT attempts against them, #11 in the nation, which has left a lot of points off of the scoreboard.
Jim Larranaga not only knows the Syracuse zone well, but gets an extra preparation day off of that solid 81-63 win over N.C. State to open ACC play on Saturday. In JaQuan Newton and Davon Reed he has veteran floor leaders that fueled wins and covers over Syracuse in each of the last two seasons, so putting together a game plan to take advantage of what is currently a dysfunctional Orange outfit (DaJuan Coleman has gone from being a starter to not even leaving the bench vs. Boston College) should not be a major challenge for this bunch.
There is something about the modern marketplace in play here that is worth addressing - I would have put it in the lead, but it might have run too long. This is absolutely a proto-type letdown spot for Georgia Tech, and a bounce-back for Duke, off of those rather startling scores in their respective ACC openers. And once upon a time a bet against GT, or on Duke, might have worked. But those corrections from extreme performances have become so well known by the markets over time that we do not see the lines adjusted for them much at all anymore. The concept that the markets get too influenced by what they saw last, and recency bias? Barely a flicker of that out there some days.
Did Tech get upgraded for dumping North Carolina? Not at +20. Did Duke get downgraded for losing wire-to-wire at Virginia Tech? Not at -20. About 20 years ago this line might have been Duke -16, with an over-reaction to the last game of each team. A decade ago it might have been -18. But the modern markets take a much different look at these things - GT could indeed have a major letdown, yet still lose within this point spread.
After a couple of seasons in which Providence was one of the most consistent teams around, which you can attach to Cooley and Kris Dunn, I believe the roller coaster rides the Friars have taken this season is simply going to be who they are - they don't have size (freshman Kalif Young is the only player resembling a center, and he only has only played 14.5 minutes per game), depth (only 4 players average more than 5.0 points per game), or experience (no seniors, except for little-used Casey Wording, who only has 11 career points).
Each of those key components has been a factor in those ugly road games - usually we count on a Cooley team to play with tenacity, but the lack of size and experience led to some snowball-effects when things began to go bad. For now they are a difficult team for me to trust because their range of potential outcomes for any game is so wide. So I will try to watch and learn tonight, but won't be close to reaching into pocket for anything.
Rutgers vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -12
I have no problem laying this number at home on the Spartans. Michigan State is trending up right now. They come in having won 3 straight with 2 impressive wins to open up Big Ten play. First they went on the road and beat Minnesota 75-74 as a 5.5-point dog and then they knocked off Northwestern 61-52 as a 2.5-point home favorite. Now they welcome back freshmen sensation and the teams best player in Miles Bridges, who has missed the last 7 games with an ankle injury. Rutgers comes in at 11-4, but have dropped 3 straight since taking a step up in competition, losing by 11 at Seton Hall, 20 at Wisconsin and 13 at home to Penn State. There's going to be a buzz in East Lansing with Bridges return and this Rutgers team is in for a long night. Note that Izzo has had no problem against the Scarlet Knights, winning all 3 meetings by at least 20+ with a 34-point win in the only game they have hosted Rutgers.
Georgetown vs. Providence
Play: Providence -3?
I really like the value here with the Friars laying a small number at home against the Hoyas. Providence comes in having lost 3 straight. The first was a surprising 67-79 loss at BC as a 10-point favorite, then they fell at Xavier and Butler in their first two games back from Christmas break. I believe it was the Friars undervalued here, as we can expect a max effort here at home to put an end to the losing streak. Keep in mind that Providence is a perfect 9-0 at home this season and have won 4 straight over the Hoyas.
Georgetown is a team that I just don't trust, especially on the road. The Hoyas had won 6 straight, but it was against weak competition. They did have a 78-71 win at Syracuse during this stretch, but the Orange are slumping and clearly not at the same level as years past. Georgetown has since lost 66-76 at Marquette and 76-81 at home to Xavier. The Hoyas are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games as a dog of 6.5 points or less.
Grizzlies vs. Clippers
Play: Grizzlies -1
The Key: Not all back-to-backs are created equal. The Grizzlies lost last night to the Lakers, and now they play the Clippers tonight, meaning they don't have to travel at all as this game will also be played inside Staples Center. And they had two days off before the Lakers game. After a poor performance last night, look for the Grizzlies to re-focus here and take care of the depleted Clippers. The Clippers remain without their 2 best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. To stay they've struggled without them would be an understatement. The Clippers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Grizzlies are 23-11 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Los Angeles.
Heat vs. Kings
Play: Kings -8
The Sacramento Kings have turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won five of their last seven games overall coming in, including a 120-113 win in Denver last night as 4-point underdogs.
I know the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back now, but so will the Miami Heat, who lost 90-99 in Phoenix last night. The Heat have now lost six straight and 14 of their last 17 games overall. They aren't able to handle these back-to-back situations because of all their injuries right now.
Indeed, the Heat have been hit harder by injuries than any team this season. They are going to be without Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh McRoberts tonight. Both James Johnson and Dion Waiters are questionable, while Tyler Johnson and Goran Dragic are expected to play through injuries.
This is simply a mash unit right now that cannot be competitive given the situation. Sacramento is 7-0 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Expect a double-digit blowout in favor of the home team tonight.
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Over 224
Damian Lillard is unlikely to suit up for the Blazers on Wednesday night, and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total (relatively speaking) in this one.
The last time these two teams hooked up in mid-December they combined to score 225 points as the Warriors rolled to a 45-point rout. Their first meeting this season, on the first night of November, totaled 231 points. This has been an 'over' series all the way in recent years.
The Blazers have been struggling offensively without Lillard in the lineup but I do expect them to break loose thanks to the Warriors pace alone. Golden State has actually been quite effective defensively this season, but still gives up over 104 points per game at home.
Offensively, the Warriors continue to light it up, particularly here at Oracle Arena, where they average over 121 ppg. They'll face little resistance against a Blazers squad that gives up over 113 ppg on the road.
Oklahoma City vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte
The Thunder are battling the 22-14 Jazz in the Northwest Division while the Hornets and the 19-16 Hornets lead the 18-16 Atlanta Hawks in the Southeast by just a half-game. Both teams feature outstanding lead guards in Westbrook for OKC and Kemba Walker for Charlotte. With Durant off to Oakland, very few expected anything less than ?the Russell Westbrook Show? this year in OKC and he?s delivered. Westbrook scored 30 points, the 30th time he's reached that mark this season, in Monday?s 98-94 loss at Milwaukee but struggled from the floor, making 9 of 28 (note: he was 0-for-8 in the third quarter when the Bucks took their first lead!). However, he checks in averaging a triple-double on the season at 30.9-10.4-10.5
Walker doesn?t get as much ?pub? as Westbrook but the Hornets couldn?t do without him. He?s made a strong case to be an Eastern Conference All Star this season, averaging 23.0-4.2-5.4. Charlotte?s strength is its depth (something OKC does not have), as even though center Cody Zeller (10.7-6.2) is in the league's concussion protocol (listed day-to-day) and sixth-man Marco Belinelli (11.0) is out with a sprained ankle, the Hornets have more than just a few bodies to ?throw at? Westbrook and score points on the offensive end. Batum (14.9-7.6-5.9) is one of the league?s most versatile players plus even without Zeller and Belinelli, the Hornets have seven others who average between 5.1 and 10.2 PPG.
OKC got good news with the return of Oladipo (16.1 PPG) these last two games, after he had missed nine games with a wrist injury. He?s an important piece, as the Thunder really rely on the Westbrook-Oladipo backcourt and the center combo of Kanter (13.4-6.0) and Adams (12.0-7.7), to do most of the team's scoring. However, even with Oladipo back and Westbrook likely to put up yet another triple-double, I?m not sure the Thunder can trade points with the Hornets, who have averaged an impressive 109.5 PPG over their last eight games.
OKC has scored 80 and 94 points in the team's last two road games, falling to 8-8 on the road this year. Take the home team.
I think Memphis can be a solid handicapping fit here because I don't see much of a court advantage at all, but unfortunately many in the marketplace have invested money today with similar views, hence the +1.5 that had been available with the Grizzlies swinging over to the current offering. Memphis has been in Los Angeles since Sunday, and got to play at the Staples Center last night, so many of the usual negatives associated with a road team are not there. The flip side is that while the Clippers are short-handed they should be reasonably well-prepared, also having been hanging around at home since Sunday, with that win over Phoenix tucked in. I thought the Grizzlies were a good fit at +1 or better, a lesser fit at -1, but now the value chimes are not making the same sounds at -1.5.
Memphis got blitzed by some terrific Laker shooting last night; now time will begin to tell us if it was just a one-off, or if LAL is ready to begin making some positive steps.
Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars
Play: Montreal Canadiens +115
The Canadians are coming off a hard fought win over the Nashville Predators in O/T last night and now they head to Dallas to face the Stars. Getting some real nice value with Montreal here and we will take the underdog Canadians. Montreal are one of the best teams in the NHL and although they are on a back to back game, they have been very successful in this situation going 5-2 this year. The Stars have been playing very well of late winning 4 out of their last 6 games but will be without Captain Jamie Benn tonight who suffered a foot injury on Saturday. This will be a big blow to the Stars offense. Dallas allows almost 3 goals per game and we will see the Canadians who fired 43 shots at Pekka Rinne last night continue their offensive onslaught on one of the worse defensive teams in the league tonight. At the time of this writing Montreal was getting plus money at 115 and we will happily take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Stars are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. the Eastern Conference.
Winnipeg +132 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers are on our radar as a live dog in the second half of the season but as a favorite in this range, we?re not interested in them whatsoever. There are other issues in play here too. Florida has not played since New Year?s Eve and we see so many teams flat after an extended layoff. Throw in some meals and drinks with family and friends over the past week in the sweet sunshine and there?s a good chance that the Panthers will be flat here, especially in the early going. The Panthers have also allowed 36, 40, 41 and 39 shots on net in four consecutive games, thus, we?ll gladly take our chances here taking back a price like this against a team that has been bombarded with shots recently.
Winnipeg played last night in Tampa so they have already played once since New Year?s Eve and figure to be sharper than the Panthers. Besides that, the Jets have played some of their best hockey this year in the tail end of back-to-backs. The Jets have only played six times on consecutive days but have picked up five out of a possible six points (2-0-1) following a victory in the second leg of back-to-backs. There are many things we don?t like about the Jets but that discussion is for when we are fading them. What we know for sure is that the Jets have the better talent here, they are in a better situational spot and they also hold all the value. That?s more than enough ammunition to warrant a play.
