06:10 PM NBA [709] TOTAL o209-150 (B+2) (Atlanta Hawks vrs Washington Wizards)
08:30 PM NBA [712] TOTAL u205-150 (B+2) (Chicago Bulls vrs Boston Celtics)
07:05 PM MLB [903] Chicago Cubs -148 ( J Lester - L / T Glasnow - R )
08:40 PM MLB [909] TOTAL o11-105 (Washington Nationals vrs Colorado Rockies) ( T Roark/Chatwood)
10:15 PM MLB [914] TOTAL u6.5 -105 (Los Angeles Dodgers vrs San Francisco Giants) (Wood/Cueto)
07:05 PM MLB [918] Baltimore Orioles -143 ( A Cobb - R / D Bundy - R )
08:05 PM MLB [924] TOTAL u9-110 (Minnesota Twins vrs Texas Rangers) (Santiago/Hamels)
07:05 PM MLB [905] Miami Marlins -112 ( W Chen - L / V Velasquez - R )
09:40 PM MLB [911] TOTAL o10-115 (San Diego Padres vrs Arizona Diamondbacks) (Cahill/Godley)
1 unit bet pays 201 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Play: Cleveland -105
The Cleveland Indians have lost two straight and will be motivated to get back in the win column tonight. I think they'll do just that behind Trevor Bauer, who is coming off his best start of the season in which he allowed two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings with 7 strikeouts in a 6-2 win at Minnesota.
What stood out to me most about this game is that Bauer has never lost to the Astros. Indeed, he's a perfect 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in five career starts against them. Look for him to improve to 6-0 tonight.
The markets are high on Lance McCullers, but he's not nearly as effective on the road. He is 3-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 17 career road starts. McCulleers gave up five runs and two homers in 4 1/3 innings at Oakland in his lone road start this season.
The Astros are 4-12 in McCuller's last 16 road starts. The Indians are 7-3 in Bauer's last 10 home starts. Cleveland is 36-17 in its last 53 games vs. a right-handed starters, including 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. righties.
Arizona Diamondback's Chase Field has not installed and activated the ball humidor quite yet (but we read here one analysis which finds the pitcher Bradley will give up 52% fewer home runs when humidor is up and running!)...Anyway, with the warm temperatures and low humidity there now, and the roof probably open quite a bit this week, and Dbacks facing mostly mediocre pitching, - we've seen two overs in a row cash, and expect to see a lot of runs the next several days!
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Yankees +107
I like the value here with the Yankees as a dog in the series opener against rival Boston. I actually had this as a premium play before yesterday's game was postponed due to rain. New York leads all of baseball with a +30 run differential and I just don't feel they are getting the respect they deserve. On top of that, the Red Sox are sending out last year's Cy Young winner Rick Porcello. Even though Porcello hasn't pitched well early, he's still getting a lot of public love. I think last year was more of a fluke than anything and I look for him to have an up and down season. On flip side of this, the Yankees are sending out Luis Severino, who has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. Severino has a 4.05 ERA in 3 starts, but a mere 0.800 WHIP. He's also got an impressive 21 strikeouts in his last 15 innings of work.
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8
The Toronto Blue Jays won last night's matchup 6-5, and I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate again tonight.
The Cardinals' Carlos Martinez (0-3, 4.76 ERA) opened the season with 7 1/3 scoreless innings against the Cubs, but he's been roughed up in each of his last three starts since. He was knocked around for five runs on seven hits with a pair of home runs in five innings of a 7-5 loss at Milwaukee his last time out.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Mat Latos (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who conceded four runs on six hits and three walks in five innings at LAA on April 21 in his lone start so far this season. He's posted a 5.76 ERA in 13 career meetings with St. Louis.
Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings at Busch Stadium.
Dodgers at Giants
Pick: Under
The Dodgers offense has been scuffling of late. They really have never gotten it going the way they should all year. It shouldn't be easy to get it going against Johnny Cueto. Cueto has been at his best early in the season during his career, and he loves this ballpark.
Alex Wood is a pretty good lefty for the Dodgers, and this Giants lineup is a mess right now. They have a bunch of guys banged up, and there are guys playing in the bigs who have no business being here. The Dodgers bullpen is one of the best in the majors, so when Alex Wood is done, the under should be in good hands.
The under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two in San Francisco. Look for another low scoring game here.
Oakland +126 over L.A. ANGELS
After a rough April last year, a newfound reliance on his split-finger saved Matt Shoemaker?s (RHP) season. From May 21 on, Shoemaker posted a 2.83 ERA in 130 innings over 20 games started. Skills, particularly his K-rate, tailed off a bit after June, but his first-pitch strike rate speaks to his resilience of control, and his swing and miss rate raises hopes that his K-rate could rebound as well. However, a September skull fracture on a come-backer added uncertainty heading into the year. After two starts this year, Shoemaker?s ERA was 7.31. After four starts, it is 4.98. He has been taken yard in every start and has now surrendered six bombs in four starts covering 21 innings. He?s also walked nine batters. Shoemaker?s lone home start was his worst of the season and he?ll be back at home for this one.
Sean Manaea (LHP) gave up four earned runs in six innings in his first start of the year and recorded only four strikeouts. Over his next three starts against Houston, Seattle and Texas, Manaea struck out 22 batters over 16 innings. He has a 15% swing and miss rate and leads the majors with a 65% groundball rate among pitchers with three or more starts. There?s lots to like about Manaea and there is a lot to like about taking back a tag with him too.
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Angels
The set-up: The Angels salvaged a split of their four game series against Toronto with a 2-1 win on Monday. They then opened this three-games series with the A's with a second straight 2-1 victory. After nine scoreless innings last night, each team led off its half of the 10th with a home run but LA won on a walk-off single in the bottom of the 11th. Oakland's five-game winning streak was snapped in an 11-1 home loss to Seattle on Sunday and now for teh second straight game, the team's offense has produced just one run. The two teams play the middle game of this series tonight with Oakland at 10-10 and LA at 10-12.
The pitching matchup: Sean Manaea (1-1 & 4.43 ERA) gets the nod for the A's and Matt Shoemaker (0-1 & 4.98 ERA) will get the ball for the Angels. Manaea picked up his first win of 2017 in his last outing, a 3-1 Friday win over Seattle in which hse pitched six innings, allowing one run on five hits. He escaped with a no-decision against Los Angeles in his season debut back on April 4, after surrendering four runs and five hits in six innings. He's 0-1 with a 4.34 ERA in three starts against the Angels (A's are 0-3). Shoemaker has just two runs in three of his four starts this season but has yet to record a win. One of those two-run outings came opposite Manaea earlier this month, when he allowed four hits and walked three in a no-decision at Oakland. Shoemaker owns a 4-2 record and 3.51 ERA in 10 career starts against the Athletics (Angels are 7-3).
The pick: Shoemaker has pitched well enough to have a win or two so far in 2017 and is overdue for some good fortune. He's done well against the A's in his short career (see above) and I say he gets his first win of 2017, right here.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB?
Sean Manaea has a lot of upside, a left-hander that can not only induce batters to miss pitches, but when they do make contact to have much of it be on the ground. Yet an 8-10/3.93 opening to his MLB career, including 1-1/4.43 through four starts this season, is only inducing yawns in the marketplace based on the Wednesday price point, which opens up some opportunity. I will make #928 LAA Team Total Under (10:05 Eastern) the path, with ?4? the going rate in the morning trading. This allows me to take Matt Shoemaker out of play, because I lack confidence in his grade so far (I did not like his early stuff, but he was much more comfortable in his last outing).
Manaea begin to settle in quite well in 2016, after perhaps being rushed a bit after only three starts at AAA ? his ERA of 2.67 after the All Star break was #9 in the Major?s, and it was not a fluke, with an 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, the latter showing his confidence and development. Now his K/9 is up to 10.5 this season, and when the ball has been in play a superb 65.4 GB%. Baseball won?t allow that rate to remain so high, but it is also not a complete outlier ? he has registered at least a 60.0 in every start, which shows the consistency that is developing. If a pitcher combines a 14.3 SWS% with a high rate of ground-balls, they have to resign themselves to the fact that instead of a mid-summer vacation, it may have to be a trip to the All Star game instead.
Outside of Mike Trout the Angels offense does not bring much, rating #28 in OPS, and that may well be who they are. They?ll have to get to five to ruin the ticket, possibly in only eight innings if Shoemaker throws well, and I?ll put Manaea, and an A?s bullpen that does not carry a fatigue rating, into play with confidence against that lineup
Nationals at Rockies
Play: Rockies -108
You can expect more offense tonight as these two clubs combined for 27 runs in Tuesday's slugfest as the Nationals won for the seventh time in eight tries on their current road trip. Colorado has won four of their last five scoring 46 runs in the process as they are tied for the most wins in baseball and Washington with 14. The Rockies will start Tyler Chatwood (2-2, 4.10 ERA) who has allowed just 23 hits in over 26 innings of work while the Nats will send Tanner Roark (2-0, 3.65) who has enjoyed receiving 6.5 runs support per start. This time he gets caught.
Washington -1? +175 over COLORADO
We?re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado?s home games this season and we?ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it?s the Rocks or the opposition and we?ll be playing it regardless of who?s pitching. We?re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12? range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We?ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
Year to date:
4-5 +3.98 units
Atlanta at New York
Play: Atlanta +183
I like the price we are getting with the Atlanta Braves today as underdogs considering they have their ace on the mound tonight. Julio Teheran is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 4 starts this year, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 road starts, pitching 13 shutout innings away from home. Teheran is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. New York as well.....
Tampa Bay +129 over BALTIMORE
Alex Cobb (RHP) has faced the Yankees twice and Boston and Houston once each. His ERA is 4.88 after four starts and because of that, we get him at an inflated priced today. Cobb underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015. Before the missed time, Cobb was trending in a positive direction. His strong swing and miss rate supported his decent K-rate, indicating potential. This season after four starts against some tough lineups, Cobb generated swings on 36% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to the league average of 31%. Cobb also does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. Don?t assign a lot of relevance to Cobb?s four early starts because he joined the party late last year (in September), which was his first action in over a year. Cobb has shook off the rust and is ready to take that next step. With a BB/K split of 4/18 over 24 frames, a 52% groundball rate and an xERA that is at 3.98 but decreasing every game, Alex Cobb has great profit potential in that arm of his.
It's also been a long road back for Dylan Bundy (RHP). Once one of the premier prospects in the game, Bundy's arm/shoulder issues forced him out of the majors for the better part of three seasons. He returned in 2016 and spun 109 innings of 4.02 ERA ball, which included a move to the rotation for the entire second half. Still just 24, there are some encouraging signs, but he's not there yet. Bundy was able to miss bats with ease, as his 2H swing and miss rate held up well in a starting role. However, his low groundball rate tells us hitters are able to elevate off of him, which leads to considerable HR risk at Camden Yards (+16%/6% LHB/RHB HR). The weather is expected to be warmer tonight (65?) so the ball figures to carry better and that?s the risk here. Dylan Bundy has great potential for sure but his 32%/29%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate makes him far too big a risk at this park when spotting a price.
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -1?
The Toronto Blue Jays are just 6-14 this season. They are playing without two of their best hitters AND defenders in Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki right now. Mat Latos has been awful over the past couple seasons. He went posted a 4.95 ERA in 2015 and a 4.89 ERA in 2016, and he's off to a 7.20 ERA in 2017. Carlos Martinez is the ace of the Cardinals' staff. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA last season. Latos is 5-6 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 starts against the Cardinals. Expect St. Louis to win by multiple runs tonight.
N.Y. Yankees +113 over BOSTON
Rick Porcello (RHP) is Exhibit A on how pitchers are at whims of randomness, as his xERA has been flat for three years now. Porcello took pinpoint control to a new level last year with first-pitch strike rate support. That's the good news. The bad news is that his groundballs continued to turn into fly-balls and his swing and miss rate suggests his middling K-rate is here to stay. If you bet on Porcello, you are paying for a repeat of last year and that is not going to happen. Rick Porcello is nothing more than a reliable mid-rotation starter that is priced like an ace.
Few pitchers have been better than Luis Severino (RHP) in the early going. Severino has a BB/K split of 2/27 in 20 innings. That?s elite control with an elite strikeout rate. He has an elite batted ball profile of 50% groundballs, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. His groundball rate in his last start was 65%. Severino?s 4.05 ERA is the result of bad luck. He comes in with a 2.22 xERA and a 0.80 WHIP and if he and the Yanks lose here so be it. However, when Severino, the Yankees and that #1 ranked bullpen is taking back a tag, it must be played and that applies here.
Seattle vs. Detroit
Play: Seattle -138
I'll take my chances with Seattle here, as the books are making it pretty clear who think has the edge with the Mariners a pretty big road favorite after losing to the Tigers by 10 runs yesterday. It all comes down to the respect they have for Mariners starter James Paxton, who is primed for a big bounce back start after a rough outing last time out at Oakland. Even with the poor showing against the A's, Paxton owns a 1.78 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 4 starts. While Detroit is red-hot at the plate, they are only scoring 3.7 runs/game and hitting .207 as a team against left-handed starters this season. It's also worth noting that Seattle is swinging the bats well, having scored 20 runs in their last 2 games and will be facing Daniel Norris, who has an ugly 1.529 WHIP in 3 starts (9 walks to just 11 strikeouts in 17 innings).
San Diego at Arizona
Play: Under 10
San Diego's Trevor Cahill is seemingly always in a state of "reinvention." Last year, he found his niche tossing out of the bullpen for the Cubs where he flashed a 2.74 ERA. This season, he's starting for the Padres and thus far doing a pretty good job. Like some of the highest priced pitchers in the game, Cahill is doing two things extremely well: miss bats and gardner ground balls. In three starts, he's posted 43 swinging strikes, 21 strikeouts and 28 ground balls. He's reportedly incorporated a new cutter/slider type pitch that compliments his main pitch, a sinker. Giving Cahill's history, an injury and/or regression is likely on the horizon but for the time being, he appears to be undervalued.
With Shelby Miller on the shelf, Arizona will turn to fringe arm Zack Godley. Godley doesn't have much of a track record but looked sharp in spring training and prior to his call-up from Triple-A Reno.
?There were some very good candidates that were throwing the ball in Reno,? Lovullo said. ?But we trust and believe in their eyes, and that was their recommendation. He threw the ball very well at the tail end of spring training, and he left a very positive impression on myself and the rest of the staff.?
He walks into a favorable situation as San Diego's offense ranks near the bottom of the National League. And getting out of Petco hasn't yielded better results. In 13 road games, the Padres are averaging 3.2 runs per game and some dismal splits: .218/.278/.374/.652. In the first two games of this series, San Diego posted 28 strikeouts and only three walks. They plated four runs against fringe reliever Silvino Bracho who has since been sent down. Outside of that, Arizona's staff held San Diego to five runs in 17.2 innings.
Despite both starters not having much in the way of pedigree, current form and situation suggest there's some value on playing this game under the total.
There have been four games played between the Hawks and the Wizards and in three of the four, BOTH teams have been able to crack the triple-digit mark. The Over is 2-1-1 officially through the four played, with the pair in D.C. seeing one Over, and one Under.
Since the Wizards scored 98 and 101 in their losses in Atlanta, I would have to believe that shooting back in their own arena will see the jump shots go through the net a little more often than they did at the Philips Arena.
That being the case, Iean to the Over being the way to go on Wednesday in D.C.
The Over is 5-1-1 in Washington's last 7 conference quarterfinal games contested, and right now they are playing an Atlanta team that they allowed to gain confidence with 116 and 111 points tallied in their Games Three and Four victories on their home court.
Offense dictates play tonight. Hawks and Wizards Over the total.
1* ATLANTA-WASHINGTON OVER
Chicago at Boston
Pick: Under
Do not recall a series turning around so completely based upon the availability of one player who is normally not the most important component for his team. But minus Rajon Rondo for the past two games, and , apparently, for tonight's Game Five, Chicago has been lost offensively. The Bulls had to scramble just to get to 95 points in Game Four, and note the Celtics are "under" 18-10 their last 28 games and Bulls "under" 16-10 their last 26 (most of those with Rondo).
Hawks vs. Wizards
Play: Hawks +6
The Wizards still don?t really know how to handle prosperity. Wizards Coach Scott Brooks said before Game 4. ?We haven?t been to the line enough.? Brooks highlighted the free throw disparity between the teams. Through three games, Atlanta had attempted 109 free throws compared to Washington?s 70. The Hawks simply don?t have the personnel to keep John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. in check. But the Hawks pose a threat inside with the frontcourt combo of Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard, and if Atlanta should win, it will have more to do with how that pair dominates the paint than whether the Hawks stop the Wizards? trio.
Nashville +100 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. Here?s what Scott Burnside (ESPN Senior Hockey Writer) wrote about the Blues after their first round victory over Minnesota:
?The Blues were a machine while dismantling the favored Minnesota Wild in five games, and they get center Paul Stastny back for Round 2?.
That?s actually funny. A machine? Dismantling? The dictionary defines dismantling as: to take apart so that it is in separate pieces. :to destroy (something) in an orderly way.
Once again, results have more emphasis on the market than performance. We have to question whether Scott Burnside even watched one period of that series because if he had, he could not have used the words machine and dismantled. The only thing that the Blues dismantled was the luck meter that was heavily on their side. In the five games against Minnesota, St. Louis was the second best team on the ice in all five games. The Blue Notes were under siege the entire series and the only thing that bailed them out was puck luck. In the eight first-round series, no team was dominated more than the Blues. Jake Allen was tremendous and while he stole every game and can do the same thing here, we?re not interested in spotting a price with a team that is going to need more luck to win. St. Louis will very likely be the second best team on the ice again in every period of every game.
Nashville limited Chicago to three goals in four games. They dominated a team that every expert said could not be dominated. The Preds defense which includes P.K. Subban, offensive catalyst Roman Josi, the emerging Ryan Ellis, big-bodied Mattias Ekholm and steady veterans Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber, were a machine against Chicago. That?s a MACHINE. The Preds kept the Blackhawks on the outside all series long and figure to have even more success against the Blues weaker offense. While anything can happen here, we have to stick to playing value and one thing we know for sure is that Nashville is the superior team and beating Chicago gives them a ton of confidence going into this series. By contrast and despite winning, every player on that Blues? bench knows they were badly outplayed in round one and that can?t be a very good feeling at all. We also know that the value is on this superior dog.
Note: We're going to wait on this one until later in the day when the line settles. There is a bunch of money coming in on the dog and that concerns us, especially since Sportsinteraction has the Preds favored. We may lay off this game if money continues to pour in on the Preds but we'll update it either way around dinner time. We may also sit it out, hope for St. Louis to win and then come back with an updated series wager on the Preds.
Edmonton at Anaheim
Play: Anaheim -127
After making short work of one Alberta representative, the Pacific Division champion Anaheim Ducks would love to take the first step in repeating the feat against the other on Wednesday as they begin their second-round series against the visiting Edmonton Oilers. Anaheim is riding an 18-game point streak (15-0-3) and collected a point in four of five encounters (2-1-2) with Edmonton.
Although Anaheim's defense received a jolt from the offensive contributions of rookie Shea Theodore (two goals, three assists) in the first round, the back line is expected to be strengthened all the more by the potential returns of All-Star Cam Fowler and top-four Sami Vatanen.
Oilers are 17-40 in their last 57 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Ducks are 15-2 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
08:30 PM NBA [712] TOTAL u205-150 (B+2) (Chicago Bulls vrs Boston Celtics)
07:05 PM MLB [903] Chicago Cubs -148 ( J Lester - L / T Glasnow - R )
08:40 PM MLB [909] TOTAL o11-105 (Washington Nationals vrs Colorado Rockies) ( T Roark/Chatwood)
10:15 PM MLB [914] TOTAL u6.5 -105 (Los Angeles Dodgers vrs San Francisco Giants) (Wood/Cueto)
07:05 PM MLB [918] Baltimore Orioles -143 ( A Cobb - R / D Bundy - R )
08:05 PM MLB [924] TOTAL u9-110 (Minnesota Twins vrs Texas Rangers) (Santiago/Hamels)
07:05 PM MLB [905] Miami Marlins -112 ( W Chen - L / V Velasquez - R )
09:40 PM MLB [911] TOTAL o10-115 (San Diego Padres vrs Arizona Diamondbacks) (Cahill/Godley)
1 unit bet pays 201 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Play: Cleveland -105
The Cleveland Indians have lost two straight and will be motivated to get back in the win column tonight. I think they'll do just that behind Trevor Bauer, who is coming off his best start of the season in which he allowed two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings with 7 strikeouts in a 6-2 win at Minnesota.
What stood out to me most about this game is that Bauer has never lost to the Astros. Indeed, he's a perfect 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in five career starts against them. Look for him to improve to 6-0 tonight.
The markets are high on Lance McCullers, but he's not nearly as effective on the road. He is 3-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 17 career road starts. McCulleers gave up five runs and two homers in 4 1/3 innings at Oakland in his lone road start this season.
The Astros are 4-12 in McCuller's last 16 road starts. The Indians are 7-3 in Bauer's last 10 home starts. Cleveland is 36-17 in its last 53 games vs. a right-handed starters, including 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. righties.
Arizona Diamondback's Chase Field has not installed and activated the ball humidor quite yet (but we read here one analysis which finds the pitcher Bradley will give up 52% fewer home runs when humidor is up and running!)...Anyway, with the warm temperatures and low humidity there now, and the roof probably open quite a bit this week, and Dbacks facing mostly mediocre pitching, - we've seen two overs in a row cash, and expect to see a lot of runs the next several days!
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Yankees +107
I like the value here with the Yankees as a dog in the series opener against rival Boston. I actually had this as a premium play before yesterday's game was postponed due to rain. New York leads all of baseball with a +30 run differential and I just don't feel they are getting the respect they deserve. On top of that, the Red Sox are sending out last year's Cy Young winner Rick Porcello. Even though Porcello hasn't pitched well early, he's still getting a lot of public love. I think last year was more of a fluke than anything and I look for him to have an up and down season. On flip side of this, the Yankees are sending out Luis Severino, who has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. Severino has a 4.05 ERA in 3 starts, but a mere 0.800 WHIP. He's also got an impressive 21 strikeouts in his last 15 innings of work.
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8
The Toronto Blue Jays won last night's matchup 6-5, and I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate again tonight.
The Cardinals' Carlos Martinez (0-3, 4.76 ERA) opened the season with 7 1/3 scoreless innings against the Cubs, but he's been roughed up in each of his last three starts since. He was knocked around for five runs on seven hits with a pair of home runs in five innings of a 7-5 loss at Milwaukee his last time out.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Mat Latos (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who conceded four runs on six hits and three walks in five innings at LAA on April 21 in his lone start so far this season. He's posted a 5.76 ERA in 13 career meetings with St. Louis.
Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings at Busch Stadium.
Dodgers at Giants
Pick: Under
The Dodgers offense has been scuffling of late. They really have never gotten it going the way they should all year. It shouldn't be easy to get it going against Johnny Cueto. Cueto has been at his best early in the season during his career, and he loves this ballpark.
Alex Wood is a pretty good lefty for the Dodgers, and this Giants lineup is a mess right now. They have a bunch of guys banged up, and there are guys playing in the bigs who have no business being here. The Dodgers bullpen is one of the best in the majors, so when Alex Wood is done, the under should be in good hands.
The under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two in San Francisco. Look for another low scoring game here.
Oakland +126 over L.A. ANGELS
After a rough April last year, a newfound reliance on his split-finger saved Matt Shoemaker?s (RHP) season. From May 21 on, Shoemaker posted a 2.83 ERA in 130 innings over 20 games started. Skills, particularly his K-rate, tailed off a bit after June, but his first-pitch strike rate speaks to his resilience of control, and his swing and miss rate raises hopes that his K-rate could rebound as well. However, a September skull fracture on a come-backer added uncertainty heading into the year. After two starts this year, Shoemaker?s ERA was 7.31. After four starts, it is 4.98. He has been taken yard in every start and has now surrendered six bombs in four starts covering 21 innings. He?s also walked nine batters. Shoemaker?s lone home start was his worst of the season and he?ll be back at home for this one.
Sean Manaea (LHP) gave up four earned runs in six innings in his first start of the year and recorded only four strikeouts. Over his next three starts against Houston, Seattle and Texas, Manaea struck out 22 batters over 16 innings. He has a 15% swing and miss rate and leads the majors with a 65% groundball rate among pitchers with three or more starts. There?s lots to like about Manaea and there is a lot to like about taking back a tag with him too.
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Angels
The set-up: The Angels salvaged a split of their four game series against Toronto with a 2-1 win on Monday. They then opened this three-games series with the A's with a second straight 2-1 victory. After nine scoreless innings last night, each team led off its half of the 10th with a home run but LA won on a walk-off single in the bottom of the 11th. Oakland's five-game winning streak was snapped in an 11-1 home loss to Seattle on Sunday and now for teh second straight game, the team's offense has produced just one run. The two teams play the middle game of this series tonight with Oakland at 10-10 and LA at 10-12.
The pitching matchup: Sean Manaea (1-1 & 4.43 ERA) gets the nod for the A's and Matt Shoemaker (0-1 & 4.98 ERA) will get the ball for the Angels. Manaea picked up his first win of 2017 in his last outing, a 3-1 Friday win over Seattle in which hse pitched six innings, allowing one run on five hits. He escaped with a no-decision against Los Angeles in his season debut back on April 4, after surrendering four runs and five hits in six innings. He's 0-1 with a 4.34 ERA in three starts against the Angels (A's are 0-3). Shoemaker has just two runs in three of his four starts this season but has yet to record a win. One of those two-run outings came opposite Manaea earlier this month, when he allowed four hits and walked three in a no-decision at Oakland. Shoemaker owns a 4-2 record and 3.51 ERA in 10 career starts against the Athletics (Angels are 7-3).
The pick: Shoemaker has pitched well enough to have a win or two so far in 2017 and is overdue for some good fortune. He's done well against the A's in his short career (see above) and I say he gets his first win of 2017, right here.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB?
Sean Manaea has a lot of upside, a left-hander that can not only induce batters to miss pitches, but when they do make contact to have much of it be on the ground. Yet an 8-10/3.93 opening to his MLB career, including 1-1/4.43 through four starts this season, is only inducing yawns in the marketplace based on the Wednesday price point, which opens up some opportunity. I will make #928 LAA Team Total Under (10:05 Eastern) the path, with ?4? the going rate in the morning trading. This allows me to take Matt Shoemaker out of play, because I lack confidence in his grade so far (I did not like his early stuff, but he was much more comfortable in his last outing).
Manaea begin to settle in quite well in 2016, after perhaps being rushed a bit after only three starts at AAA ? his ERA of 2.67 after the All Star break was #9 in the Major?s, and it was not a fluke, with an 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, the latter showing his confidence and development. Now his K/9 is up to 10.5 this season, and when the ball has been in play a superb 65.4 GB%. Baseball won?t allow that rate to remain so high, but it is also not a complete outlier ? he has registered at least a 60.0 in every start, which shows the consistency that is developing. If a pitcher combines a 14.3 SWS% with a high rate of ground-balls, they have to resign themselves to the fact that instead of a mid-summer vacation, it may have to be a trip to the All Star game instead.
Outside of Mike Trout the Angels offense does not bring much, rating #28 in OPS, and that may well be who they are. They?ll have to get to five to ruin the ticket, possibly in only eight innings if Shoemaker throws well, and I?ll put Manaea, and an A?s bullpen that does not carry a fatigue rating, into play with confidence against that lineup
Nationals at Rockies
Play: Rockies -108
You can expect more offense tonight as these two clubs combined for 27 runs in Tuesday's slugfest as the Nationals won for the seventh time in eight tries on their current road trip. Colorado has won four of their last five scoring 46 runs in the process as they are tied for the most wins in baseball and Washington with 14. The Rockies will start Tyler Chatwood (2-2, 4.10 ERA) who has allowed just 23 hits in over 26 innings of work while the Nats will send Tanner Roark (2-0, 3.65) who has enjoyed receiving 6.5 runs support per start. This time he gets caught.
Washington -1? +175 over COLORADO
We?re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado?s home games this season and we?ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it?s the Rocks or the opposition and we?ll be playing it regardless of who?s pitching. We?re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12? range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We?ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
Year to date:
4-5 +3.98 units
Atlanta at New York
Play: Atlanta +183
I like the price we are getting with the Atlanta Braves today as underdogs considering they have their ace on the mound tonight. Julio Teheran is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 4 starts this year, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 road starts, pitching 13 shutout innings away from home. Teheran is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. New York as well.....
Tampa Bay +129 over BALTIMORE
Alex Cobb (RHP) has faced the Yankees twice and Boston and Houston once each. His ERA is 4.88 after four starts and because of that, we get him at an inflated priced today. Cobb underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015. Before the missed time, Cobb was trending in a positive direction. His strong swing and miss rate supported his decent K-rate, indicating potential. This season after four starts against some tough lineups, Cobb generated swings on 36% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to the league average of 31%. Cobb also does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. Don?t assign a lot of relevance to Cobb?s four early starts because he joined the party late last year (in September), which was his first action in over a year. Cobb has shook off the rust and is ready to take that next step. With a BB/K split of 4/18 over 24 frames, a 52% groundball rate and an xERA that is at 3.98 but decreasing every game, Alex Cobb has great profit potential in that arm of his.
It's also been a long road back for Dylan Bundy (RHP). Once one of the premier prospects in the game, Bundy's arm/shoulder issues forced him out of the majors for the better part of three seasons. He returned in 2016 and spun 109 innings of 4.02 ERA ball, which included a move to the rotation for the entire second half. Still just 24, there are some encouraging signs, but he's not there yet. Bundy was able to miss bats with ease, as his 2H swing and miss rate held up well in a starting role. However, his low groundball rate tells us hitters are able to elevate off of him, which leads to considerable HR risk at Camden Yards (+16%/6% LHB/RHB HR). The weather is expected to be warmer tonight (65?) so the ball figures to carry better and that?s the risk here. Dylan Bundy has great potential for sure but his 32%/29%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate makes him far too big a risk at this park when spotting a price.
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -1?
The Toronto Blue Jays are just 6-14 this season. They are playing without two of their best hitters AND defenders in Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki right now. Mat Latos has been awful over the past couple seasons. He went posted a 4.95 ERA in 2015 and a 4.89 ERA in 2016, and he's off to a 7.20 ERA in 2017. Carlos Martinez is the ace of the Cardinals' staff. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA last season. Latos is 5-6 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 starts against the Cardinals. Expect St. Louis to win by multiple runs tonight.
N.Y. Yankees +113 over BOSTON
Rick Porcello (RHP) is Exhibit A on how pitchers are at whims of randomness, as his xERA has been flat for three years now. Porcello took pinpoint control to a new level last year with first-pitch strike rate support. That's the good news. The bad news is that his groundballs continued to turn into fly-balls and his swing and miss rate suggests his middling K-rate is here to stay. If you bet on Porcello, you are paying for a repeat of last year and that is not going to happen. Rick Porcello is nothing more than a reliable mid-rotation starter that is priced like an ace.
Few pitchers have been better than Luis Severino (RHP) in the early going. Severino has a BB/K split of 2/27 in 20 innings. That?s elite control with an elite strikeout rate. He has an elite batted ball profile of 50% groundballs, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. His groundball rate in his last start was 65%. Severino?s 4.05 ERA is the result of bad luck. He comes in with a 2.22 xERA and a 0.80 WHIP and if he and the Yanks lose here so be it. However, when Severino, the Yankees and that #1 ranked bullpen is taking back a tag, it must be played and that applies here.
Seattle vs. Detroit
Play: Seattle -138
I'll take my chances with Seattle here, as the books are making it pretty clear who think has the edge with the Mariners a pretty big road favorite after losing to the Tigers by 10 runs yesterday. It all comes down to the respect they have for Mariners starter James Paxton, who is primed for a big bounce back start after a rough outing last time out at Oakland. Even with the poor showing against the A's, Paxton owns a 1.78 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 4 starts. While Detroit is red-hot at the plate, they are only scoring 3.7 runs/game and hitting .207 as a team against left-handed starters this season. It's also worth noting that Seattle is swinging the bats well, having scored 20 runs in their last 2 games and will be facing Daniel Norris, who has an ugly 1.529 WHIP in 3 starts (9 walks to just 11 strikeouts in 17 innings).
San Diego at Arizona
Play: Under 10
San Diego's Trevor Cahill is seemingly always in a state of "reinvention." Last year, he found his niche tossing out of the bullpen for the Cubs where he flashed a 2.74 ERA. This season, he's starting for the Padres and thus far doing a pretty good job. Like some of the highest priced pitchers in the game, Cahill is doing two things extremely well: miss bats and gardner ground balls. In three starts, he's posted 43 swinging strikes, 21 strikeouts and 28 ground balls. He's reportedly incorporated a new cutter/slider type pitch that compliments his main pitch, a sinker. Giving Cahill's history, an injury and/or regression is likely on the horizon but for the time being, he appears to be undervalued.
With Shelby Miller on the shelf, Arizona will turn to fringe arm Zack Godley. Godley doesn't have much of a track record but looked sharp in spring training and prior to his call-up from Triple-A Reno.
?There were some very good candidates that were throwing the ball in Reno,? Lovullo said. ?But we trust and believe in their eyes, and that was their recommendation. He threw the ball very well at the tail end of spring training, and he left a very positive impression on myself and the rest of the staff.?
He walks into a favorable situation as San Diego's offense ranks near the bottom of the National League. And getting out of Petco hasn't yielded better results. In 13 road games, the Padres are averaging 3.2 runs per game and some dismal splits: .218/.278/.374/.652. In the first two games of this series, San Diego posted 28 strikeouts and only three walks. They plated four runs against fringe reliever Silvino Bracho who has since been sent down. Outside of that, Arizona's staff held San Diego to five runs in 17.2 innings.
Despite both starters not having much in the way of pedigree, current form and situation suggest there's some value on playing this game under the total.
There have been four games played between the Hawks and the Wizards and in three of the four, BOTH teams have been able to crack the triple-digit mark. The Over is 2-1-1 officially through the four played, with the pair in D.C. seeing one Over, and one Under.
Since the Wizards scored 98 and 101 in their losses in Atlanta, I would have to believe that shooting back in their own arena will see the jump shots go through the net a little more often than they did at the Philips Arena.
That being the case, Iean to the Over being the way to go on Wednesday in D.C.
The Over is 5-1-1 in Washington's last 7 conference quarterfinal games contested, and right now they are playing an Atlanta team that they allowed to gain confidence with 116 and 111 points tallied in their Games Three and Four victories on their home court.
Offense dictates play tonight. Hawks and Wizards Over the total.
1* ATLANTA-WASHINGTON OVER
Chicago at Boston
Pick: Under
Do not recall a series turning around so completely based upon the availability of one player who is normally not the most important component for his team. But minus Rajon Rondo for the past two games, and , apparently, for tonight's Game Five, Chicago has been lost offensively. The Bulls had to scramble just to get to 95 points in Game Four, and note the Celtics are "under" 18-10 their last 28 games and Bulls "under" 16-10 their last 26 (most of those with Rondo).
Hawks vs. Wizards
Play: Hawks +6
The Wizards still don?t really know how to handle prosperity. Wizards Coach Scott Brooks said before Game 4. ?We haven?t been to the line enough.? Brooks highlighted the free throw disparity between the teams. Through three games, Atlanta had attempted 109 free throws compared to Washington?s 70. The Hawks simply don?t have the personnel to keep John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. in check. But the Hawks pose a threat inside with the frontcourt combo of Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard, and if Atlanta should win, it will have more to do with how that pair dominates the paint than whether the Hawks stop the Wizards? trio.
Nashville +100 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. Here?s what Scott Burnside (ESPN Senior Hockey Writer) wrote about the Blues after their first round victory over Minnesota:
?The Blues were a machine while dismantling the favored Minnesota Wild in five games, and they get center Paul Stastny back for Round 2?.
That?s actually funny. A machine? Dismantling? The dictionary defines dismantling as: to take apart so that it is in separate pieces. :to destroy (something) in an orderly way.
Once again, results have more emphasis on the market than performance. We have to question whether Scott Burnside even watched one period of that series because if he had, he could not have used the words machine and dismantled. The only thing that the Blues dismantled was the luck meter that was heavily on their side. In the five games against Minnesota, St. Louis was the second best team on the ice in all five games. The Blue Notes were under siege the entire series and the only thing that bailed them out was puck luck. In the eight first-round series, no team was dominated more than the Blues. Jake Allen was tremendous and while he stole every game and can do the same thing here, we?re not interested in spotting a price with a team that is going to need more luck to win. St. Louis will very likely be the second best team on the ice again in every period of every game.
Nashville limited Chicago to three goals in four games. They dominated a team that every expert said could not be dominated. The Preds defense which includes P.K. Subban, offensive catalyst Roman Josi, the emerging Ryan Ellis, big-bodied Mattias Ekholm and steady veterans Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber, were a machine against Chicago. That?s a MACHINE. The Preds kept the Blackhawks on the outside all series long and figure to have even more success against the Blues weaker offense. While anything can happen here, we have to stick to playing value and one thing we know for sure is that Nashville is the superior team and beating Chicago gives them a ton of confidence going into this series. By contrast and despite winning, every player on that Blues? bench knows they were badly outplayed in round one and that can?t be a very good feeling at all. We also know that the value is on this superior dog.
Note: We're going to wait on this one until later in the day when the line settles. There is a bunch of money coming in on the dog and that concerns us, especially since Sportsinteraction has the Preds favored. We may lay off this game if money continues to pour in on the Preds but we'll update it either way around dinner time. We may also sit it out, hope for St. Louis to win and then come back with an updated series wager on the Preds.
Edmonton at Anaheim
Play: Anaheim -127
After making short work of one Alberta representative, the Pacific Division champion Anaheim Ducks would love to take the first step in repeating the feat against the other on Wednesday as they begin their second-round series against the visiting Edmonton Oilers. Anaheim is riding an 18-game point streak (15-0-3) and collected a point in four of five encounters (2-1-2) with Edmonton.
Although Anaheim's defense received a jolt from the offensive contributions of rookie Shea Theodore (two goals, three assists) in the first round, the back line is expected to be strengthened all the more by the potential returns of All-Star Cam Fowler and top-four Sami Vatanen.
Oilers are 17-40 in their last 57 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Ducks are 15-2 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
