Georgia State -4 (-110)
Colorado Rockies +190
Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles Under 8 (-105)
Miami Marlins +142
1 unit bet wins 25.10
Tampa Bay Rays +103
Cleveland Indians -185
Los Angeles Dodgers -235
Under 7 (-115) Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego
1 unit bet wins 7.33
Washington Nationals -164
Under 7? (-120) New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Under 6? (-105) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Under 8 Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Angels
1 unit bet wins 10.00
(No Murphy or Wright in Mets lineup today)
Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting: :clap: :slomo
2014 parlay record: 12-62, +26.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
Bart Hubbuch@HubbuchNYP
I don't even know where to begin here with Homer in a Redskins jersey saluting RGIII
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
Derrick Goold@dgoold
Wainwright says he's been battling a dead arm, which he is reluctant to acknowledge. Usually means he feels it's about over.
The Rays are showing great value as a small road dog on Wednesday. Tampa Bay will send out starter Drew Smyly, who has a dominant 0.76 ERA and 0.549 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Smyly's last outing was a complete game shutout at Toronto. In his only career start against the Orioles earlier this season, Smyly held Baltimore to just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 innings of a 4-1 win. The Orioles will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has a not so impressive 4.38 ERA and 1.333 WHIP over 7 home starts. Gausman also has an ugly 7.05 ERA and 1.826 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 21-8 in their last 29 road games, 14-5 in their last 19 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 12-4 in their last 16 road games in the second half against AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game. These trends combine to form a 73 % (47-17) system in favor of the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!
N.Y. METS +119 over Atlanta
It didn't take long Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013?his first full MLB season and followed it up with an elite 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts in 2014. However, things have taken a turn for the worst for Teheran and fatigue is likely the cause. Teheran threw 142 innings in his first season above A-Ball back in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 he split time between the minors (Triple-A Gwinnett) and the majors throwing a combined 163 frames in 2011 and 137 innings in 2012. In his first full season at the MLB level last year, he threw 185.2 innings.
This year with 4? weeks left in the season, Teheran has already thrown 182.2 innings and will shatter his own record for innings pitched in a season. Signs of fatigue include less strikeouts, more walks and pitching up in the zone rather than low, which is reflected in a pitchers groundball/fly-ball split. In Teheran's case, it's all of the above that is suffering. Teheran's 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split over his last six starts is an alarming number that should not be ignored. His 7% swing and miss rate over those six starts is way down from his 10% swing and miss rate up to that point this season. Furthermore, Teheran's numbers on the road (4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) have not come close to matching his home numbers. Both his surface stats and skills are much worse on the road and now it appears as though fatigue is settling in. Teheran's current form combined with Atlanta's poor road offense make the Braves too big risk as the chalk.
Zack Wheeler cannot be this big a dog at home against a weak hitting visitor. Wheeler has been hot in the second half, with a 2.20 ERA in eight July and August starts. Four of those starts came at home, and three of them were of the pure quality variety. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once during his last eight starts. Wheeler's 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile on the year is one of the best in the game. Hitters cannot make hard contact off of Wheeler's stuff consistently.
The only skill that is a concern is Wheeler's control or lack thereof. He's already walked 65 batters in 153 innings but his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't hurt him as much as it would others. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, Wheeler will become one of MLB's most dominant starters. From July 6 to July 30, he walked two batters or less in five straight starts and the Mets won four of those five starts while outscoring the opposition 30-11. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ K's/9 in each month) and groundballs (57%+ GB% in three months and 53% overall), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor and is a great value bet anytime he's a pooch against an opposing starter that is not superior to him. That applies here.
--
Low Balling
The under proved to be a strong play in Tuesday?s action, going 4-10-1 on a night buoyed by shutouts from the Chicago Cubs (+158), San Francisco Giants (-235) and Seattle Mariners (-203). More than 55 percent of games have gone under in the past seven days. [last Thursday every game went under, 1st under, for entire slate, this season. So far.]
Kershaw a Trend Buster
Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw looks to continue bucking his team?s recent trend as he leads visiting Los Angeles (-218, 7) into Arizona Wednesday. The Dodgers are 0-3 over/under in Kershaw?s last three starts, but are 9-3 O/U in all other games during that stretch.
--
Hughes and Alvarez Offer Great Plus-Money Tonight
The top earner in baseball has been Minnesota's Phil Hughes (14-8, 3.65) with +11.7 units of profit if wagering on him in every start. The Twins have gone 17-9 behind him this season, but because he doesn't have the metrics as some of the top pitchers and his team already has one of the lowest team ratings, he rarely finds himself as the favorite which has allowed him to pile up plus-money wins all season.
Hughes has been an underdog in nine of his last 11 outings and he comes in on this stretch of the season where he's won his last four starts allowing only one earned run in each. In his last three starts, he's taken down some very good teams, like beating Corey Kluber and Cleveland on Thursday, beating the red-hot Royals on Aug. 16 and then knocking off the A's on Aug. 10. Between those three starts, bettors took home +395 in profits if siding with Hughes.
Hughes' plight is so bad on paper that he's not even favored against Liam Hendricks tonight in Kansas City. Hendricks hasn't pitched in the majors since June 20 and has started 23 Triple-A games (12-2, 2.45) between Buffalo and Omaha, and yet he still comes in as a -115 favorite over Hughes.
Over in Anaheim tonight we have a similar situation where the team rating for the Angels far exceeds what the Marlins have to offer despite a lopsided pitching match-up. On one side we have Hector Santiago, who the Angels have lost four straight behind, as a -145 favorite over Henderson Alvarez (10-5, 2.57), who comes in tied for second as the most profitable starter in baseball at +11.2 units.
All Alvarez does is win. He's won his last four starts and the Marlins have won 14 of his last 16 starts. The beautiful thing about him is that he's been either pick 'em or an underdog in 12 of those last 16 starts. The Angels have a lineup that can make any good pitcher look bad, but with a four-game series starting tomorrow against the A's, the Marlins might be able to catch the Angels in a vulnerable moment. Alvarez has huge value tonight.
---
"The Cubs Are Poised for a Breakthrough" -- read the story at this link, excerpt:
The Cubs have so much young talent that people are actually stressing out over whether the team will actually have room for all of the youngsters on the roster at the same time.
Of course, prospect hype doesn't guarantee major-league success, and Cubs fans have been burned by supposed waves of talent that didn't pan out before. So what's different this time? Well, for starters, this roster is a lot better than people might realize, even without factoring in all the prospects on the rise.
Yes, I'm talking about the roster of a team that is currently 59-72, good for last place in the NL Central. On the surface, this is just another terrible Cubs team in a long line of terrible Cubs teams, but once you dig a little bit deeper, you'll find that this team has actually shown some real promise this year....
....It might not have shown up in the standings yet, but even without the wave of prospects that are on the way, this team has performed like a roughly average Major League team. Add in some expected production from a few of the young kids and likely a significant free agent addition or two, and the Cubs are going to be everyone's sleeper pick next year. But it won't just be prospect hype and a big name addition. This is a decent team that is a lot closer to winning than their current record suggests.
---
A battle between two young pitchers awaits us in Baltimore tonight when Kevin Gausman and the Orioles look to win a third in a row over Drew Smyly and the Rays. Baltimore currently rests atop the AL East with a comfortable, seven game lead on New York and a ten game advantage over Toronto.
Smyly has been electric for his new club since coming over. The former Detroit Tiger owns an ERA of 1.55 in the month of August with the Rays having won two of those four starts. He was stellar in Toronto last week and owns good numbers against this lineup. His career ERA (although it spans just eight innings of work) at this venue is 1.13 and outside of Nelson Cruz (2-7) and Adam Jones (2-6), no one on this roster has done anything respectable against Smyly.
As for Gausman, this is the deepest he has pitched into any MLB season during his young career. He has struggled a bit in August while posting an ERA of 4.09 during the month entering this start. Tampa owns a collective team BA of .339 against him in what amounts to 62 total at bats. While they are likely all but eliminated from playoff contention at this point, it?s likely they keep fighting down the stretch and today should be a good spot for them.
I don?t see the Rays as a squad which will give up on their year and I don?t envision Baltimore winning this division by something absurd. This ML opened with a split of -120/+110 (home team favored) and has since seen little movement. Right around 55% of backers are supporting the Orioles despite the ongoing absence of Manny Machado (1-4 in this match-up).
This current ML of +105/110 doesn?t pose serious value, but I really like Smyly right now. He is pitching with a purpose and the Rays have responded to his presence on the mound. I?ll still with that theme today and look to back a pitcher who I feel will provide good ROI down the stretch.
---
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Washington Nationals -159
The visiting Nats will send Doug Fister (12-4, 2.38 ERA) to toe the rubber; Fister is coming off a rare poor outing where he allowed four earned runs over six innings in a loss to the Giants. A date vs. Philadelphia is just what the doctor ordered to return to form though, note that the big right-hander is 2-1 while limiting the Phillies to just four earned runs and 13 hits over 22 innings in three career starts. Philadelphia counters with Kyle Kendrick (6-11, 4.93 ERA), who allowed three runs in the first inning but settled down to defeat the Cardinals on Friday, allowing four runs over 6 1/3 innings in the end; it?s important to note though that the win was his first since July 25th. The bottom line is, Kendrick has a 6.10 ERA since June 21st, worst in the National League. Additionally, Kendrick is just 5-10 with a ballooned 5.00 ERA against the Nationals, his most losses versus any team (also note that Kendrick has posted a deplorable 8.02 ERA in losing his last four matchups in the series). Despite taking the first two of this series, the Phillies are still well under .500 at home and several of the Nats? sluggers have dominated Kendrick throughout their careers, I think the table is set for a Washington victory.
Abilene Christian vs. Georgia State
Play: Georgia State -4
Abilene Christian started last year off with a three game winning streak scoring 196 points in those three games, but they were all at home and once they hit the road the winning stopped losing each of the next three and five of eight. They did end the year 6-5, but no bowl game and were just 2-4 on the road as they open at Georgia State. Georgia State went 0-12 last season allowing 24 points in each game, 30+ in 11 of the games and 40+ in four games. They fought hard on the home turf coming close to winning in the fourth game of the season losing in overtime to Jacksonville State. Look for Georgia State to be a year better as they rinse away the bad taste from last season with an opening day home victory by 10.
The Cleveland Indians (67-63) continue to battle for the final wild card spot in the American League. They trail the Seattle Mariners by 4.5 games for that spot with 32 to play, so they clearly need to make a run. They have been by winning seven of their last 10 games overall.
Now, they send ace Corey Kluber to the mound to take down the Chicago White Sox (59-72), who have lost seven in a row and have nothing to play for. Kluber has gone 13-7 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 27 starts this season. He is 3-1 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven career starts against Chicago.
The White Sox will be giving the ball to Hector Noesi, who is 7-8 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.369 WHIP over 21 starts this season. He has been at his worst at home, going 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 12 starts. Noesi is also 0-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland.
Kluber is 12-2 against the run line (+12.3 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Chicago is 21-43 against the run line (-24.0 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons. The Indians are 12-2 against the run line (+12.5 Units) after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season. I look for Cleveland to win by two-plus runs tonight.
Colorado Rockies +190
Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles Under 8 (-105)
Miami Marlins +142
1 unit bet wins 25.10
Tampa Bay Rays +103
Cleveland Indians -185
Los Angeles Dodgers -235
Under 7 (-115) Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego
1 unit bet wins 7.33
Washington Nationals -164
Under 7? (-120) New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Under 6? (-105) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Under 8 Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Angels
1 unit bet wins 10.00
(No Murphy or Wright in Mets lineup today)
Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting: :clap: :slomo
2014 parlay record: 12-62, +26.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
Bart Hubbuch@HubbuchNYP
I don't even know where to begin here with Homer in a Redskins jersey saluting RGIII
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
Derrick Goold@dgoold
Wainwright says he's been battling a dead arm, which he is reluctant to acknowledge. Usually means he feels it's about over.
The Rays are showing great value as a small road dog on Wednesday. Tampa Bay will send out starter Drew Smyly, who has a dominant 0.76 ERA and 0.549 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Smyly's last outing was a complete game shutout at Toronto. In his only career start against the Orioles earlier this season, Smyly held Baltimore to just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 innings of a 4-1 win. The Orioles will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has a not so impressive 4.38 ERA and 1.333 WHIP over 7 home starts. Gausman also has an ugly 7.05 ERA and 1.826 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 21-8 in their last 29 road games, 14-5 in their last 19 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 12-4 in their last 16 road games in the second half against AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game. These trends combine to form a 73 % (47-17) system in favor of the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!
N.Y. METS +119 over Atlanta
It didn't take long Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013?his first full MLB season and followed it up with an elite 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts in 2014. However, things have taken a turn for the worst for Teheran and fatigue is likely the cause. Teheran threw 142 innings in his first season above A-Ball back in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 he split time between the minors (Triple-A Gwinnett) and the majors throwing a combined 163 frames in 2011 and 137 innings in 2012. In his first full season at the MLB level last year, he threw 185.2 innings.
This year with 4? weeks left in the season, Teheran has already thrown 182.2 innings and will shatter his own record for innings pitched in a season. Signs of fatigue include less strikeouts, more walks and pitching up in the zone rather than low, which is reflected in a pitchers groundball/fly-ball split. In Teheran's case, it's all of the above that is suffering. Teheran's 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split over his last six starts is an alarming number that should not be ignored. His 7% swing and miss rate over those six starts is way down from his 10% swing and miss rate up to that point this season. Furthermore, Teheran's numbers on the road (4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) have not come close to matching his home numbers. Both his surface stats and skills are much worse on the road and now it appears as though fatigue is settling in. Teheran's current form combined with Atlanta's poor road offense make the Braves too big risk as the chalk.
Zack Wheeler cannot be this big a dog at home against a weak hitting visitor. Wheeler has been hot in the second half, with a 2.20 ERA in eight July and August starts. Four of those starts came at home, and three of them were of the pure quality variety. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once during his last eight starts. Wheeler's 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile on the year is one of the best in the game. Hitters cannot make hard contact off of Wheeler's stuff consistently.
The only skill that is a concern is Wheeler's control or lack thereof. He's already walked 65 batters in 153 innings but his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't hurt him as much as it would others. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, Wheeler will become one of MLB's most dominant starters. From July 6 to July 30, he walked two batters or less in five straight starts and the Mets won four of those five starts while outscoring the opposition 30-11. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ K's/9 in each month) and groundballs (57%+ GB% in three months and 53% overall), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor and is a great value bet anytime he's a pooch against an opposing starter that is not superior to him. That applies here.
--
Low Balling
The under proved to be a strong play in Tuesday?s action, going 4-10-1 on a night buoyed by shutouts from the Chicago Cubs (+158), San Francisco Giants (-235) and Seattle Mariners (-203). More than 55 percent of games have gone under in the past seven days. [last Thursday every game went under, 1st under, for entire slate, this season. So far.]
Kershaw a Trend Buster
Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw looks to continue bucking his team?s recent trend as he leads visiting Los Angeles (-218, 7) into Arizona Wednesday. The Dodgers are 0-3 over/under in Kershaw?s last three starts, but are 9-3 O/U in all other games during that stretch.
--
Hughes and Alvarez Offer Great Plus-Money Tonight
The top earner in baseball has been Minnesota's Phil Hughes (14-8, 3.65) with +11.7 units of profit if wagering on him in every start. The Twins have gone 17-9 behind him this season, but because he doesn't have the metrics as some of the top pitchers and his team already has one of the lowest team ratings, he rarely finds himself as the favorite which has allowed him to pile up plus-money wins all season.
Hughes has been an underdog in nine of his last 11 outings and he comes in on this stretch of the season where he's won his last four starts allowing only one earned run in each. In his last three starts, he's taken down some very good teams, like beating Corey Kluber and Cleveland on Thursday, beating the red-hot Royals on Aug. 16 and then knocking off the A's on Aug. 10. Between those three starts, bettors took home +395 in profits if siding with Hughes.
Hughes' plight is so bad on paper that he's not even favored against Liam Hendricks tonight in Kansas City. Hendricks hasn't pitched in the majors since June 20 and has started 23 Triple-A games (12-2, 2.45) between Buffalo and Omaha, and yet he still comes in as a -115 favorite over Hughes.
Over in Anaheim tonight we have a similar situation where the team rating for the Angels far exceeds what the Marlins have to offer despite a lopsided pitching match-up. On one side we have Hector Santiago, who the Angels have lost four straight behind, as a -145 favorite over Henderson Alvarez (10-5, 2.57), who comes in tied for second as the most profitable starter in baseball at +11.2 units.
All Alvarez does is win. He's won his last four starts and the Marlins have won 14 of his last 16 starts. The beautiful thing about him is that he's been either pick 'em or an underdog in 12 of those last 16 starts. The Angels have a lineup that can make any good pitcher look bad, but with a four-game series starting tomorrow against the A's, the Marlins might be able to catch the Angels in a vulnerable moment. Alvarez has huge value tonight.
---
"The Cubs Are Poised for a Breakthrough" -- read the story at this link, excerpt:
The Cubs have so much young talent that people are actually stressing out over whether the team will actually have room for all of the youngsters on the roster at the same time.
Of course, prospect hype doesn't guarantee major-league success, and Cubs fans have been burned by supposed waves of talent that didn't pan out before. So what's different this time? Well, for starters, this roster is a lot better than people might realize, even without factoring in all the prospects on the rise.
Yes, I'm talking about the roster of a team that is currently 59-72, good for last place in the NL Central. On the surface, this is just another terrible Cubs team in a long line of terrible Cubs teams, but once you dig a little bit deeper, you'll find that this team has actually shown some real promise this year....
....It might not have shown up in the standings yet, but even without the wave of prospects that are on the way, this team has performed like a roughly average Major League team. Add in some expected production from a few of the young kids and likely a significant free agent addition or two, and the Cubs are going to be everyone's sleeper pick next year. But it won't just be prospect hype and a big name addition. This is a decent team that is a lot closer to winning than their current record suggests.
---
A battle between two young pitchers awaits us in Baltimore tonight when Kevin Gausman and the Orioles look to win a third in a row over Drew Smyly and the Rays. Baltimore currently rests atop the AL East with a comfortable, seven game lead on New York and a ten game advantage over Toronto.
Smyly has been electric for his new club since coming over. The former Detroit Tiger owns an ERA of 1.55 in the month of August with the Rays having won two of those four starts. He was stellar in Toronto last week and owns good numbers against this lineup. His career ERA (although it spans just eight innings of work) at this venue is 1.13 and outside of Nelson Cruz (2-7) and Adam Jones (2-6), no one on this roster has done anything respectable against Smyly.
As for Gausman, this is the deepest he has pitched into any MLB season during his young career. He has struggled a bit in August while posting an ERA of 4.09 during the month entering this start. Tampa owns a collective team BA of .339 against him in what amounts to 62 total at bats. While they are likely all but eliminated from playoff contention at this point, it?s likely they keep fighting down the stretch and today should be a good spot for them.
I don?t see the Rays as a squad which will give up on their year and I don?t envision Baltimore winning this division by something absurd. This ML opened with a split of -120/+110 (home team favored) and has since seen little movement. Right around 55% of backers are supporting the Orioles despite the ongoing absence of Manny Machado (1-4 in this match-up).
This current ML of +105/110 doesn?t pose serious value, but I really like Smyly right now. He is pitching with a purpose and the Rays have responded to his presence on the mound. I?ll still with that theme today and look to back a pitcher who I feel will provide good ROI down the stretch.
---
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Washington Nationals -159
The visiting Nats will send Doug Fister (12-4, 2.38 ERA) to toe the rubber; Fister is coming off a rare poor outing where he allowed four earned runs over six innings in a loss to the Giants. A date vs. Philadelphia is just what the doctor ordered to return to form though, note that the big right-hander is 2-1 while limiting the Phillies to just four earned runs and 13 hits over 22 innings in three career starts. Philadelphia counters with Kyle Kendrick (6-11, 4.93 ERA), who allowed three runs in the first inning but settled down to defeat the Cardinals on Friday, allowing four runs over 6 1/3 innings in the end; it?s important to note though that the win was his first since July 25th. The bottom line is, Kendrick has a 6.10 ERA since June 21st, worst in the National League. Additionally, Kendrick is just 5-10 with a ballooned 5.00 ERA against the Nationals, his most losses versus any team (also note that Kendrick has posted a deplorable 8.02 ERA in losing his last four matchups in the series). Despite taking the first two of this series, the Phillies are still well under .500 at home and several of the Nats? sluggers have dominated Kendrick throughout their careers, I think the table is set for a Washington victory.
Abilene Christian vs. Georgia State
Play: Georgia State -4
Abilene Christian started last year off with a three game winning streak scoring 196 points in those three games, but they were all at home and once they hit the road the winning stopped losing each of the next three and five of eight. They did end the year 6-5, but no bowl game and were just 2-4 on the road as they open at Georgia State. Georgia State went 0-12 last season allowing 24 points in each game, 30+ in 11 of the games and 40+ in four games. They fought hard on the home turf coming close to winning in the fourth game of the season losing in overtime to Jacksonville State. Look for Georgia State to be a year better as they rinse away the bad taste from last season with an opening day home victory by 10.
The Cleveland Indians (67-63) continue to battle for the final wild card spot in the American League. They trail the Seattle Mariners by 4.5 games for that spot with 32 to play, so they clearly need to make a run. They have been by winning seven of their last 10 games overall.
Now, they send ace Corey Kluber to the mound to take down the Chicago White Sox (59-72), who have lost seven in a row and have nothing to play for. Kluber has gone 13-7 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 27 starts this season. He is 3-1 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven career starts against Chicago.
The White Sox will be giving the ball to Hector Noesi, who is 7-8 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.369 WHIP over 21 starts this season. He has been at his worst at home, going 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 12 starts. Noesi is also 0-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland.
Kluber is 12-2 against the run line (+12.3 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Chicago is 21-43 against the run line (-24.0 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons. The Indians are 12-2 against the run line (+12.5 Units) after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season. I look for Cleveland to win by two-plus runs tonight.
