07:05 PM MLB [953] WAS NATIONALS -230 ( M SCHERZER -R / A MORGAN -L )
08:40 PM MLB [962] COL ROCKIES -200 ( J LAMB -L / T CHATWOOD -R )
06:10 PM MLB [965] TEX RANGERS -102 ( C HAMELS -L / T BAUER -R )
01:10 PM MLB [976] NY METS -174 ( M GONZALEZ -R / J DEGROM -R )
10:10 PM MLB [979] SEA MARINERS -172 ( F HERNANDEZ -R / C FRIEDRICH -L )
1 unit bet pays 9.61 ....betdsi line
07:10 PM MLB [957] PIT PIRATES -108 ( J NIESE -L / A CONLEY -L )
07:05 PM MLB [969] BOS RED SOX -111 ( J KELLY -R / M WRIGHT -R )
07:05 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u8-115 (NY YANKEES vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( M TANAKA -R / A SANCHEZ -R )
10:10 PM MLB [980] TOTAL u7-110 (SEA MARINERS vrs SDG PADRES) (HERNANDEZ /FRIEDRICH)
08:05 PM NHL Stanley Cup - Game #2 [53] SJ SHARKS +1.5 -265
1 unit bet pays 17....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 6-53, -9.22 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...
Goood luck everyone!!
:firing: :toast:
Jacob deGrom posted a daytime ERA of 1.1 last season, 1.59 season before that...Thus his bloated 2.79 (2 starts) ERA daytime 2016 will decline, and today's outing will help big time in that direction - as he has been sharp of late, is at home, and few of the CWS bats have ever seen him.....CWS TT under!...and parlay Mets ML with WA Nats ML and San Jose Sharks +1.5 for a "can't miss" bet!.
Sharkies are 5-1 after a defeat in this postseason....Harper will probably not start again today as his knee is no better, WA still batting and winning fine, and he's not been all that good against lefties of late anyway...
Mike Bolsinger grew up 8 miles from Wrigley Field, and wouldn't surprise me if he pitches a similar line today in front of family and freinds he did in his lone start here (04/24/14 - 6.2 innings, 4 hits, 0 er, 7 strike outs - his 1st MLB win)
uh oh, Tanaka starts on 4 days? rest today. In three starts this season on four days? rest, Tanaka is 1-0 with a 5.68 ERA and has allowed 21 hits in 19 innings. On five days? rest (the usual back in Japan), he has an ERA under 1.60...Yanks hope this discrepancy is just a statistical quirk that will dissapear - For Tanaka?s career, he hasn't exhibited much of any difference in his pitching on how many days? rest he gets - until this season....
I saw many sharp bettors on Texas yesterday, and today too...
Bookies installed TX as a dog again because TX is on the road, pitching matchup appears equal (if you look at it in some ways, such as Hamels is 1-1, 6.29 in his last four starts), and the thinking is Cleveland bats are due for a breakout.
Just like yesterday's TX's starter (who was a way bigger dog) Hamels has a poor record vs Cleve, and also he's coming off a poor start. But those two starts Cleve hammered him were back in '07 and '13 - current Cleve lineup is batting .188 against him. Plus, punters notice he is coming off a poor start, but that's reason to take him today, in a "bounce back" start, not lay off him. And Hamels has been superb on the road this season. Bauer is his usual consistent self of late and has been vs TX, but I do see Hamels being the better pitcher today, and TX definitely playing better...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Suarez was 1-2 with a 2.88 ERA with the Triple-A River Cats after the Giants signed him as a Minor League free agent in December.. as a Minor League free agent after he finished 11-9 with the Angels' Double-A Arkansas affiliate.
Matt Shoemaker - 8.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Good news: Just look at that line as Shoemaker hit gold two times in a freakin' row. Bad news: He gets the Tigers next and I don't see that going well. Extra Good news: He gets the Yanks/Indians after which could be much better. I know I'm going to get a lot of people freaking out about Shoemaker now. Just remember he has been flippity-floppity since the start of 2015 and he's done this before. It doesn't last more than a few weeks if even one week but you ride that shizz out until you see Ashton Kutcher show up and tell you you're on camera.
Pat Dean - 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. In 142 minor leagues, guess how many Dean had at least 8 strikeouts. I don't have time to sit here and listen to you think silently. The answer is nine. Just NINE times. That's a near 6.5% chance. Jeeeez that's bad.
Washington (Scherzer) @ Philadelphia (Morgan)----I recommended fading Morgan in my ?Weekly Dose? on the road against the Cubs, and that turned out to be an easy winner. Wednesday, I think he is worth another strong fade, as the Nationals offense has fared very well vs. left handed pitchers this season. The Nationals are ranked 3rd in the Majors in weighted On Base Average this season and they will have Maz Scherzer on the mound who has held current members of the Phillies lineup to a .191 career batting average. Scherzer ran into trouble in one inning his last start, but was dominant the other 6 innings. Scherzer racked up 60 strikeouts last month and the Nationals are 3-0 in his three career road starts vs. the Phillies. Again, I think this is a good spot to lay the -1.5 runs as I can count on the Nationals to score runs off of Morgan and also count on the Nationals bullpen that is ranked #5 in the Majors to seal the deal.
Max Scherzer - 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Scherzer was walking people like they were dogs and got burned by a Grand Slam that he well deserved to give up on a hanging Slider. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't tempted to stick him at #7 behind Stras and JoFer, but I have to believe the HR problems will fall and those walks will disappear so that's not going to happen this week :-/
By season's end, Adam Conley is going to help his fantasy owners more often than not. But with a date in Marlins Park against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, the left-hander is too risky, as the Bucs school southpaws to the tune of a 0.362 wOBA, which doesn't sync well with Conley's 4.2 BB/9.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Mike Scioscia's squad has dominated the Tigers, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, after a dramatic 11-9 win last night. I expect the Halos to make it 12 of 13. Matt Shoemaker has held Tiger hitters to 5 hits in 44 combined at-bats against him. Meanwhile, the Angels have averaged 5.79 rpg in their last 19 games as the bats have truly heated-up. The Angels will face Michael Fulmer, who'll make his 7th start in his MLB career. Fulmer has looked decent in his last two starts, but enters Anaheim with a 4.67 road ERA, to go along with a 1.56 WHIP, and a .291 BAA. Eventually, the hot Angel bats will step-in against the Tigers' bullpen, carrying MLB's 28th worst ERA. Back to Shoemaker for a moment, the right-hander has allowed just one earned run and 13 base runners in three starts against the Tigers, spanning 19 2/3 IP. He's had his best 2016 "stuff" over his last two starts, holding the Astros & Orioles to a combined two earned runs and 10 hits in 15 2/3 IP, while striking out 23 batters without issuing a single walk. We'll look for the Halo bats and Shoemaker to remain hot, and we'll back the Angels as they look to make it 4-0 against Detroit when Shoemaker toes the rubber.
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9?
The Boston Red Sox are looking to complete a three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards Wednesday night. The Red Sox have outscored the Orioles 13-9 over the first two games of the series, but I think the Orioles will put up a fight in a high-scoring contest here in the series finale.
Joe Kelly (2-0, 6.30 ERA) will take the ball for the Red Sox, and he conceded up five runs on nine hits and three walks with a pair of homers in 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision against Toronto his last time out. Kelly earned a win over Baltimore on April 13, yielding just two runs despite giving up seven hits and five walks in five innings and might not be so lucky here. He has a 5.10 ERA in six starts against Baltimore.
The Orioles turn to Mike Wright (2-3, 5.05) who surrendered four runs in five innings at Boston in his season debut. Wright struggled at Cleveland his last outing, giving up three runs and six hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-4 win.
Boston leads the major leagues in runs scored averaging 5.92 runs per game and its .294 batting average is also the best mark. Over is 4-1-1 in Wright's last six home starts. Over is 4-1-1 in Kelly's last six road starts.
When Max Scherzer first broke in, there was some concern about the awkward head snap that was part of his delivery. Now the worry is whiplash from turning around to watch so many balls sail out of the yard. One of the misconceptions when evaluating pitching is perceiving ground ball rate as a skill. Granted, ground ball hurlers allow fewer homers and induce more double plays, but they also surrender more hits, as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of a fly ball is lower than that of a grounder. It's especially beneficial to be a fly ball pitcher if you display excellent control while working in a venue that depresses power. Scherzer is a fly ball pitcher, so he's prone to the homer but generally exhibits excellent control. In addition to serving up gophers at a higher-than-normal rate this year, Scherzer is walking a few more, as his 2.70 BB/9 is twice last season's mark and his highest since 2012. The Nationals right-hander is throwing as hard as ever, which is helping to fuel his dominant 11.1 K/9. Scherzer's seasonal owners should continue to be patient, as his 4.05 ERA will descend as the season progresses. DFS gamers should jump all over the chance to use Scherzer against a Philadelphia Phillies squad that is among the least patient and weakest in the league, in terms of hitting homers against right-handers.
Using ERA, Felix Hernandez's 2.86 mark suggests he is pitching better than Scherzer. There's a reason ERA is a poor measuring stick, as the two have similar FIPs, with Scherzer checking in at 4.30 and Hernandez at 4.09. Using xFIP, which normalizes home runs per fly ball, Scherzer drops to 3.33, while Hernandez holds at 4.07. King Felix's 7.6 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 pale in comparison to Scherzer's peripherals. Owners of Hernandez in traditional leagues should refrain from hitting the panic button for a few more starts. His velocity might be down, but note that through his first 10 outings last season, he topped out at 93 mph before ratcheting that up to 94 max the rest of the season. So far in 2015, Hernandez is touching 92, just 1 mph lower than last season's mark, so there's hope that his velocity will pick up as the weather warms. That said, the increased walks are a concern. Like Scherzer, Hernandez is blessed with the perfect opponent to serve as a panacea, as the Seattle Mariners head down the coast for an interleague tussle with the San Diego Padres in Petco Park. Hernandez loses the intrinsic home-field boost, but that is more than made up for by his not facing a designated hitter, along with drawing an offense registering a tepid 0.276 weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus righties and a high 24 percent strikeout rate in these conditions.
A drop in velocity is also a concern for Jacob deGrom, but considering that his past few games have been just about what he worked at last season, let's be patient with the New York Mets right-hander. Further, he's sporting the 23rd-best swinging-strike mark among pitchers, with at least 40 innings pitched, as compared to an out-of-sync 76th-best strikeout percentage. The former usually portends the latter, so expect deGrom's whiff rate to increase dramatically going forward. The 28-year old hurler will take the hill in Citi Field as the Chicago White Sox, without their designated hitter, visit the Big Apple. The visitor's offense is league average,
08:40 PM MLB [962] COL ROCKIES -200 ( J LAMB -L / T CHATWOOD -R )
06:10 PM MLB [965] TEX RANGERS -102 ( C HAMELS -L / T BAUER -R )
01:10 PM MLB [976] NY METS -174 ( M GONZALEZ -R / J DEGROM -R )
10:10 PM MLB [979] SEA MARINERS -172 ( F HERNANDEZ -R / C FRIEDRICH -L )
1 unit bet pays 9.61 ....betdsi line
07:10 PM MLB [957] PIT PIRATES -108 ( J NIESE -L / A CONLEY -L )
07:05 PM MLB [969] BOS RED SOX -111 ( J KELLY -R / M WRIGHT -R )
07:05 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u8-115 (NY YANKEES vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( M TANAKA -R / A SANCHEZ -R )
10:10 PM MLB [980] TOTAL u7-110 (SEA MARINERS vrs SDG PADRES) (HERNANDEZ /FRIEDRICH)
08:05 PM NHL Stanley Cup - Game #2 [53] SJ SHARKS +1.5 -265
1 unit bet pays 17....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 6-53, -9.22 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...
Goood luck everyone!!
:firing: :toast:
Jacob deGrom posted a daytime ERA of 1.1 last season, 1.59 season before that...Thus his bloated 2.79 (2 starts) ERA daytime 2016 will decline, and today's outing will help big time in that direction - as he has been sharp of late, is at home, and few of the CWS bats have ever seen him.....CWS TT under!...and parlay Mets ML with WA Nats ML and San Jose Sharks +1.5 for a "can't miss" bet!.
Sharkies are 5-1 after a defeat in this postseason....Harper will probably not start again today as his knee is no better, WA still batting and winning fine, and he's not been all that good against lefties of late anyway...
Mike Bolsinger grew up 8 miles from Wrigley Field, and wouldn't surprise me if he pitches a similar line today in front of family and freinds he did in his lone start here (04/24/14 - 6.2 innings, 4 hits, 0 er, 7 strike outs - his 1st MLB win)
uh oh, Tanaka starts on 4 days? rest today. In three starts this season on four days? rest, Tanaka is 1-0 with a 5.68 ERA and has allowed 21 hits in 19 innings. On five days? rest (the usual back in Japan), he has an ERA under 1.60...Yanks hope this discrepancy is just a statistical quirk that will dissapear - For Tanaka?s career, he hasn't exhibited much of any difference in his pitching on how many days? rest he gets - until this season....
I saw many sharp bettors on Texas yesterday, and today too...
Bookies installed TX as a dog again because TX is on the road, pitching matchup appears equal (if you look at it in some ways, such as Hamels is 1-1, 6.29 in his last four starts), and the thinking is Cleveland bats are due for a breakout.
Just like yesterday's TX's starter (who was a way bigger dog) Hamels has a poor record vs Cleve, and also he's coming off a poor start. But those two starts Cleve hammered him were back in '07 and '13 - current Cleve lineup is batting .188 against him. Plus, punters notice he is coming off a poor start, but that's reason to take him today, in a "bounce back" start, not lay off him. And Hamels has been superb on the road this season. Bauer is his usual consistent self of late and has been vs TX, but I do see Hamels being the better pitcher today, and TX definitely playing better...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Suarez was 1-2 with a 2.88 ERA with the Triple-A River Cats after the Giants signed him as a Minor League free agent in December.. as a Minor League free agent after he finished 11-9 with the Angels' Double-A Arkansas affiliate.
Matt Shoemaker - 8.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Good news: Just look at that line as Shoemaker hit gold two times in a freakin' row. Bad news: He gets the Tigers next and I don't see that going well. Extra Good news: He gets the Yanks/Indians after which could be much better. I know I'm going to get a lot of people freaking out about Shoemaker now. Just remember he has been flippity-floppity since the start of 2015 and he's done this before. It doesn't last more than a few weeks if even one week but you ride that shizz out until you see Ashton Kutcher show up and tell you you're on camera.
Pat Dean - 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. In 142 minor leagues, guess how many Dean had at least 8 strikeouts. I don't have time to sit here and listen to you think silently. The answer is nine. Just NINE times. That's a near 6.5% chance. Jeeeez that's bad.
Washington (Scherzer) @ Philadelphia (Morgan)----I recommended fading Morgan in my ?Weekly Dose? on the road against the Cubs, and that turned out to be an easy winner. Wednesday, I think he is worth another strong fade, as the Nationals offense has fared very well vs. left handed pitchers this season. The Nationals are ranked 3rd in the Majors in weighted On Base Average this season and they will have Maz Scherzer on the mound who has held current members of the Phillies lineup to a .191 career batting average. Scherzer ran into trouble in one inning his last start, but was dominant the other 6 innings. Scherzer racked up 60 strikeouts last month and the Nationals are 3-0 in his three career road starts vs. the Phillies. Again, I think this is a good spot to lay the -1.5 runs as I can count on the Nationals to score runs off of Morgan and also count on the Nationals bullpen that is ranked #5 in the Majors to seal the deal.
Max Scherzer - 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Scherzer was walking people like they were dogs and got burned by a Grand Slam that he well deserved to give up on a hanging Slider. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't tempted to stick him at #7 behind Stras and JoFer, but I have to believe the HR problems will fall and those walks will disappear so that's not going to happen this week :-/
By season's end, Adam Conley is going to help his fantasy owners more often than not. But with a date in Marlins Park against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, the left-hander is too risky, as the Bucs school southpaws to the tune of a 0.362 wOBA, which doesn't sync well with Conley's 4.2 BB/9.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Mike Scioscia's squad has dominated the Tigers, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, after a dramatic 11-9 win last night. I expect the Halos to make it 12 of 13. Matt Shoemaker has held Tiger hitters to 5 hits in 44 combined at-bats against him. Meanwhile, the Angels have averaged 5.79 rpg in their last 19 games as the bats have truly heated-up. The Angels will face Michael Fulmer, who'll make his 7th start in his MLB career. Fulmer has looked decent in his last two starts, but enters Anaheim with a 4.67 road ERA, to go along with a 1.56 WHIP, and a .291 BAA. Eventually, the hot Angel bats will step-in against the Tigers' bullpen, carrying MLB's 28th worst ERA. Back to Shoemaker for a moment, the right-hander has allowed just one earned run and 13 base runners in three starts against the Tigers, spanning 19 2/3 IP. He's had his best 2016 "stuff" over his last two starts, holding the Astros & Orioles to a combined two earned runs and 10 hits in 15 2/3 IP, while striking out 23 batters without issuing a single walk. We'll look for the Halo bats and Shoemaker to remain hot, and we'll back the Angels as they look to make it 4-0 against Detroit when Shoemaker toes the rubber.
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9?
The Boston Red Sox are looking to complete a three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards Wednesday night. The Red Sox have outscored the Orioles 13-9 over the first two games of the series, but I think the Orioles will put up a fight in a high-scoring contest here in the series finale.
Joe Kelly (2-0, 6.30 ERA) will take the ball for the Red Sox, and he conceded up five runs on nine hits and three walks with a pair of homers in 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision against Toronto his last time out. Kelly earned a win over Baltimore on April 13, yielding just two runs despite giving up seven hits and five walks in five innings and might not be so lucky here. He has a 5.10 ERA in six starts against Baltimore.
The Orioles turn to Mike Wright (2-3, 5.05) who surrendered four runs in five innings at Boston in his season debut. Wright struggled at Cleveland his last outing, giving up three runs and six hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-4 win.
Boston leads the major leagues in runs scored averaging 5.92 runs per game and its .294 batting average is also the best mark. Over is 4-1-1 in Wright's last six home starts. Over is 4-1-1 in Kelly's last six road starts.
When Max Scherzer first broke in, there was some concern about the awkward head snap that was part of his delivery. Now the worry is whiplash from turning around to watch so many balls sail out of the yard. One of the misconceptions when evaluating pitching is perceiving ground ball rate as a skill. Granted, ground ball hurlers allow fewer homers and induce more double plays, but they also surrender more hits, as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of a fly ball is lower than that of a grounder. It's especially beneficial to be a fly ball pitcher if you display excellent control while working in a venue that depresses power. Scherzer is a fly ball pitcher, so he's prone to the homer but generally exhibits excellent control. In addition to serving up gophers at a higher-than-normal rate this year, Scherzer is walking a few more, as his 2.70 BB/9 is twice last season's mark and his highest since 2012. The Nationals right-hander is throwing as hard as ever, which is helping to fuel his dominant 11.1 K/9. Scherzer's seasonal owners should continue to be patient, as his 4.05 ERA will descend as the season progresses. DFS gamers should jump all over the chance to use Scherzer against a Philadelphia Phillies squad that is among the least patient and weakest in the league, in terms of hitting homers against right-handers.
Using ERA, Felix Hernandez's 2.86 mark suggests he is pitching better than Scherzer. There's a reason ERA is a poor measuring stick, as the two have similar FIPs, with Scherzer checking in at 4.30 and Hernandez at 4.09. Using xFIP, which normalizes home runs per fly ball, Scherzer drops to 3.33, while Hernandez holds at 4.07. King Felix's 7.6 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 pale in comparison to Scherzer's peripherals. Owners of Hernandez in traditional leagues should refrain from hitting the panic button for a few more starts. His velocity might be down, but note that through his first 10 outings last season, he topped out at 93 mph before ratcheting that up to 94 max the rest of the season. So far in 2015, Hernandez is touching 92, just 1 mph lower than last season's mark, so there's hope that his velocity will pick up as the weather warms. That said, the increased walks are a concern. Like Scherzer, Hernandez is blessed with the perfect opponent to serve as a panacea, as the Seattle Mariners head down the coast for an interleague tussle with the San Diego Padres in Petco Park. Hernandez loses the intrinsic home-field boost, but that is more than made up for by his not facing a designated hitter, along with drawing an offense registering a tepid 0.276 weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus righties and a high 24 percent strikeout rate in these conditions.
A drop in velocity is also a concern for Jacob deGrom, but considering that his past few games have been just about what he worked at last season, let's be patient with the New York Mets right-hander. Further, he's sporting the 23rd-best swinging-strike mark among pitchers, with at least 40 innings pitched, as compared to an out-of-sync 76th-best strikeout percentage. The former usually portends the latter, so expect deGrom's whiff rate to increase dramatically going forward. The 28-year old hurler will take the hill in Citi Field as the Chicago White Sox, without their designated hitter, visit the Big Apple. The visitor's offense is league average,
