3:40 PM [951] MIA MARLINS -107 ( J NICOLINO -L / L PERDOMO -R )
3:40 PM [953] LA DODGERS -240 ( C KERSHAW -L / P CORBIN -L )
3:45 PM [956] SFO GIANTS -210 ( J NELSON -R / J CUETO -R )
4:05 PM [958] WAS NATIONALS -138 ( J HAMMEL -R / S STRASBURG -R )
1 unit bet pays 5.98 ....betdsi line .. eve parlay later (looking at Detroit dog, under KC, ov MN, un Mets...)
MLB parlays: 9-70, +2.14 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Padres are an incredible 1-20 this season in the final games of series. They are also starting a 23-year-old Rule 5 draftee who has a 9.50 ERA...the Padres are 0-7 in day games this season..
Nova has good day # this season, but is 15-10 with a 4.05 ERA in his past 38 day games (35 starts)...Chad Bettis is 6-3 with a 4.18 ERA in his last 13 day starts.
Phillies have now lost 18 of their last 24 games and 15 of those losses have been by at least two runs, while 12 of them have been by at least three runs
Nathan Karns pitches against his former team for the first time, these can be tricky and unpredictable...
We're always waiting for the other shoe to drop on knuckleballers. It's not fair, but it just happens. Steven Wright has been brilliant this season, but it always seems like a disaster is waiting just around the corner. (Though I'd guess that the split between a knuckler's likeliness for a blowup and that of a "normal" starter isn't far off.) BaseballHQ.com has a measure called pure quality starts (PQS) which rate starts on a 0-to-5 scale based on their quality, with 0s and 1s being "disasters" and 4s and 5s being "dominant." And from there they put together a DOM%/DIS% split where at or above 60 percent is good for DOM% and at or under 15 percent is good for DIS%.
R.A. Dickey is the best analog for Wright and he's at 59/15, 65/9 and 52/12 over the last three seasons, respectively. Wright is at 67/8 this year. For a couple of other reference points, Sale is at 69/15 and Kluber is at 62/15. Kershaw is comically at 85/0. There is a chance that Wright will have a blowup soon, but he has been pitching well enough for long enough to not be a major threat to disintegrate Wednesday.
Honestly, I might have more fear about a Marco Estrada collapse than one from Wright. I didn't think Estrada could keep up his 2015 numbers and instead he has improved upon them with an impossible .189 BABIP driving his success. His 6.7 H/9 led the AL last year, and this year he's pacing the league with a 5.4 mark. He seems to be trading walks for homers, but the homers are up in his last six games without any reprieve on the walks. He has a 1.3 HR/9 in these last six with a 4.0 BB/9. If these two skills continue and some more hits start falling, he's in for some trouble. However, that's unlikely to start against Philly,
The 2016 season has been pretty dang rough for Adam Wainwright, who held a horrific 5.04 ERA entering [last start] against the Reds. However, after exiting with a line of 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks, Waino now holds a near 3.00 ERA across his last five outings, including a ~8.00 K/9 and a minute 1.65 BB/9. Those are some pretty dang good numbers for a guy that everyone gave up on. But let's be clear, this start was against the Reds and it's a small sample size following a long string of pure suckage. Is it enough to throw Wainwright out there for the foreseeable future? The schedule looks questionable he gets the Astros/Cubs/Brewers up next. It's a gamble....
If you're in need of statistical support to justify using Sonny Gray, look to the fact that his two starts since returning from the DL have included his top-two average fastball velocities (93.9 and 93.5 mph, respectively). His previous high was 93.1 back on April 22. Further, the velocity jump wasn't just cosmetic; his fastball was beaten around the yard to the tune of a 1.084 OPS before his DL stint, but it has been at .480 in 30 PA during these two starts (2.13 ERA in 12⅔ innings). It's a small sample to be sure...
MARLINS AT PADRES
PLAY: OVER 8.5
If you?re looking for what projects as a bottom of the barrel starting pitcher matchup, Justin Nicolino vs. Luis Perdomo fits the bill.
Nicolino has actually been a little better than I expected for the Marlins. That?s really not saying much, however. He?s a pitch to contact type with a very low K rate. Nicolino is generating only a 13.8% soft contact rate, so I think it?s fair to say that even with a .328 BABIP, he?s perhaps getting a bit fortunate. The one mystery to me is that Nicolino has actually been racking uno some strikeouts lately. He?s recorded 20 in his last four starts, covering 21.2 innings. But he has also surrendered 35 hits in that stretch, so with his normal K rate, it?s fair to offer he might be getting blown up.
Luis Perdomo has been hit very hard, and he?s really only starting because the Padres are woefully short on starting pitchers. In effect, the Padres have lost four projected starters, three to injury and one in a trade. So Perdomo, who had not even gotten as far as AA ball in the Cardinals organization, is now a starting pitcher for San Diego. The results have not been surprising.
It certainly would appear as though the offenses for these two teams have the advantage today. That?s amplified by the fact the rather impotent Friars have actually been raking against lefties this season. It?s a day game at Petco, which helps as the ball generally carries better in the afternoon than the evening at this ballpark. As for the weather, it?s going to apparently be on the cool side on Wednesday, but whatever breeze should be heading out to right according the forecast.
I would expect runs to be fairly plentiful in this game, with either or both starting pitchers good candidates to get blown up. The oddsmakers never make it easy, as the number here is 8.5 with juice. But I see this one having a very good chance to get to double figures, so I?ll go Marlins-Padres Over
Indians at Royals
Pick: Under
A pair of strong arms and strong defensive teams clash in the AL Central. The Indians are 33-16-5 under the total away vs a team with a winning record. 30-year old Corey Kuber (6-6, 3.65 ERA) goes here, throwing great allowing 71 hits in 88+ innings and 87 Ks. The team is 4-1 in his last five starts, off 6-2 win over the Angels, throwing 9 innings allowing hits with 8 strikeouts. He has struck out 8 or more batters in 6 straight starts. Cleveland is 42-14-3 under the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Kansas City has great bullpen depth and starter Ian Kennedy (4-5, 4.06 ERA) has been great at home with a 1.46 ERA. Kansas City is 6-1-1 under the total against a team with a winning record.
Biggest UNDER run: Astros (7-0 last seven)
Although Houston is 3-5 on its current road trip, the Astros have seen the ?under? cash in each of the past seven contests. For the exception of getting shut out on Sunday at Tampa Bay, the Astros have scored at least three runs in six of the past seven contests with three games finished with 4-3 scores. In Tuesday?s victory at St. Louis, the Astros allowed a pair of solo home runs in a 5-2 triumph to end the Cardinals? five-game winning streak. Collin McHugh takes the ball for the Astros tonight, hitting the ?over? in four of six road starts, while giving up eight earned runs in previous two outings.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (9-0-1 last 10)
Minnesota may own the worst record in the American League, but the Twins have been involved in plenty of exciting games recently. The Twins dropped a 5-4 decision to the Angels on Tuesday to hit the ?over? for the ninth time in 10 games, while allowing at least four runs in 14 consecutive games. Tyler Duffey has been rocked recently for Minnesota, giving up at least five earned runs in four of his past five trips to the mound, resulting in a 4-0-1 mark to the ?over.?
3:40 PM [953] LA DODGERS -240 ( C KERSHAW -L / P CORBIN -L )
3:45 PM [956] SFO GIANTS -210 ( J NELSON -R / J CUETO -R )
4:05 PM [958] WAS NATIONALS -138 ( J HAMMEL -R / S STRASBURG -R )
1 unit bet pays 5.98 ....betdsi line .. eve parlay later (looking at Detroit dog, under KC, ov MN, un Mets...)
MLB parlays: 9-70, +2.14 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Padres are an incredible 1-20 this season in the final games of series. They are also starting a 23-year-old Rule 5 draftee who has a 9.50 ERA...the Padres are 0-7 in day games this season..
Nova has good day # this season, but is 15-10 with a 4.05 ERA in his past 38 day games (35 starts)...Chad Bettis is 6-3 with a 4.18 ERA in his last 13 day starts.
Phillies have now lost 18 of their last 24 games and 15 of those losses have been by at least two runs, while 12 of them have been by at least three runs
Nathan Karns pitches against his former team for the first time, these can be tricky and unpredictable...
We're always waiting for the other shoe to drop on knuckleballers. It's not fair, but it just happens. Steven Wright has been brilliant this season, but it always seems like a disaster is waiting just around the corner. (Though I'd guess that the split between a knuckler's likeliness for a blowup and that of a "normal" starter isn't far off.) BaseballHQ.com has a measure called pure quality starts (PQS) which rate starts on a 0-to-5 scale based on their quality, with 0s and 1s being "disasters" and 4s and 5s being "dominant." And from there they put together a DOM%/DIS% split where at or above 60 percent is good for DOM% and at or under 15 percent is good for DIS%.
R.A. Dickey is the best analog for Wright and he's at 59/15, 65/9 and 52/12 over the last three seasons, respectively. Wright is at 67/8 this year. For a couple of other reference points, Sale is at 69/15 and Kluber is at 62/15. Kershaw is comically at 85/0. There is a chance that Wright will have a blowup soon, but he has been pitching well enough for long enough to not be a major threat to disintegrate Wednesday.
Honestly, I might have more fear about a Marco Estrada collapse than one from Wright. I didn't think Estrada could keep up his 2015 numbers and instead he has improved upon them with an impossible .189 BABIP driving his success. His 6.7 H/9 led the AL last year, and this year he's pacing the league with a 5.4 mark. He seems to be trading walks for homers, but the homers are up in his last six games without any reprieve on the walks. He has a 1.3 HR/9 in these last six with a 4.0 BB/9. If these two skills continue and some more hits start falling, he's in for some trouble. However, that's unlikely to start against Philly,
The 2016 season has been pretty dang rough for Adam Wainwright, who held a horrific 5.04 ERA entering [last start] against the Reds. However, after exiting with a line of 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks, Waino now holds a near 3.00 ERA across his last five outings, including a ~8.00 K/9 and a minute 1.65 BB/9. Those are some pretty dang good numbers for a guy that everyone gave up on. But let's be clear, this start was against the Reds and it's a small sample size following a long string of pure suckage. Is it enough to throw Wainwright out there for the foreseeable future? The schedule looks questionable he gets the Astros/Cubs/Brewers up next. It's a gamble....
If you're in need of statistical support to justify using Sonny Gray, look to the fact that his two starts since returning from the DL have included his top-two average fastball velocities (93.9 and 93.5 mph, respectively). His previous high was 93.1 back on April 22. Further, the velocity jump wasn't just cosmetic; his fastball was beaten around the yard to the tune of a 1.084 OPS before his DL stint, but it has been at .480 in 30 PA during these two starts (2.13 ERA in 12⅔ innings). It's a small sample to be sure...
MARLINS AT PADRES
PLAY: OVER 8.5
If you?re looking for what projects as a bottom of the barrel starting pitcher matchup, Justin Nicolino vs. Luis Perdomo fits the bill.
Nicolino has actually been a little better than I expected for the Marlins. That?s really not saying much, however. He?s a pitch to contact type with a very low K rate. Nicolino is generating only a 13.8% soft contact rate, so I think it?s fair to say that even with a .328 BABIP, he?s perhaps getting a bit fortunate. The one mystery to me is that Nicolino has actually been racking uno some strikeouts lately. He?s recorded 20 in his last four starts, covering 21.2 innings. But he has also surrendered 35 hits in that stretch, so with his normal K rate, it?s fair to offer he might be getting blown up.
Luis Perdomo has been hit very hard, and he?s really only starting because the Padres are woefully short on starting pitchers. In effect, the Padres have lost four projected starters, three to injury and one in a trade. So Perdomo, who had not even gotten as far as AA ball in the Cardinals organization, is now a starting pitcher for San Diego. The results have not been surprising.
It certainly would appear as though the offenses for these two teams have the advantage today. That?s amplified by the fact the rather impotent Friars have actually been raking against lefties this season. It?s a day game at Petco, which helps as the ball generally carries better in the afternoon than the evening at this ballpark. As for the weather, it?s going to apparently be on the cool side on Wednesday, but whatever breeze should be heading out to right according the forecast.
I would expect runs to be fairly plentiful in this game, with either or both starting pitchers good candidates to get blown up. The oddsmakers never make it easy, as the number here is 8.5 with juice. But I see this one having a very good chance to get to double figures, so I?ll go Marlins-Padres Over
Indians at Royals
Pick: Under
A pair of strong arms and strong defensive teams clash in the AL Central. The Indians are 33-16-5 under the total away vs a team with a winning record. 30-year old Corey Kuber (6-6, 3.65 ERA) goes here, throwing great allowing 71 hits in 88+ innings and 87 Ks. The team is 4-1 in his last five starts, off 6-2 win over the Angels, throwing 9 innings allowing hits with 8 strikeouts. He has struck out 8 or more batters in 6 straight starts. Cleveland is 42-14-3 under the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Kansas City has great bullpen depth and starter Ian Kennedy (4-5, 4.06 ERA) has been great at home with a 1.46 ERA. Kansas City is 6-1-1 under the total against a team with a winning record.
Biggest UNDER run: Astros (7-0 last seven)
Although Houston is 3-5 on its current road trip, the Astros have seen the ?under? cash in each of the past seven contests. For the exception of getting shut out on Sunday at Tampa Bay, the Astros have scored at least three runs in six of the past seven contests with three games finished with 4-3 scores. In Tuesday?s victory at St. Louis, the Astros allowed a pair of solo home runs in a 5-2 triumph to end the Cardinals? five-game winning streak. Collin McHugh takes the ball for the Astros tonight, hitting the ?over? in four of six road starts, while giving up eight earned runs in previous two outings.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (9-0-1 last 10)
Minnesota may own the worst record in the American League, but the Twins have been involved in plenty of exciting games recently. The Twins dropped a 5-4 decision to the Angels on Tuesday to hit the ?over? for the ninth time in 10 games, while allowing at least four runs in 14 consecutive games. Tyler Duffey has been rocked recently for Minnesota, giving up at least five earned runs in four of his past five trips to the mound, resulting in a 4-0-1 mark to the ?over.?
