3:10 PM [902] TOTAL u10.5 +100 (WAS NATIONALS vrs COL ROCKIES) (STRASBURG/GRAY)
3:45 PM [903] PIT PIRATES +103 ( I NOVA -R / M CAIN -R )
1:05 PM [913] TOR BLUE JAYS -150 ( J HAPP -L / C SABATHIA -L )
1:10 PM [926] TB RAYS -1.5 +115 ( C FRIEDRICH -L / C ARCHER -R )
1 unit bet pays 13.55 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay later
MLB parlays: 12-134, -29.48 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Happ?s won an amazing 10 of 11 starts, with the other one being a no decision. He?s allowed a mere three earned runs over his last five starts
Toronto -152
A little pricey for the Jays, but that's expected with this ball club....Yankees jumped out early yesterday, but the Jays got the bats rolling..The deep ball was in effect and I believe it will be again here...Yankees send out Sabathia and he hasn't been sharp over the last month and a half...His ERA has spiked now at 4.20...It was at one time 2.71....So he has fell off now in the 2nd half of the season and facing the Jays won;t be easy...Bluejays have seen Sabathia enough over the last few years to know what he is good at...Jays should be able to get after Sabathia here...His walks are up and he has allowed 7 HR's in his last 4 games...He is clearly missing on something right now...I doubt he gets it fixed up for this lineup...Jays send out Happ and he is 16-3...His 2.96 ERA is for real and he has been tough all year..He doesn't allow many hits at all and his strikeouts are way up..He has become on the nominees for the Cy Young IMO....He won't give up enough here for the Yanks to factor..Jays should roll..I like the RL as well at a small + price.
Blue Jays -143
Toronto is worth a look here against the Yankees on Wednesday. Blue Jays are without a doubt the better team and will have a big time edge on the mound with J.A. Happ facing off against C.C. Sabathia. Happ has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2016 season. He's 16-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 23 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he enters with a 0.95 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sabathia on the other hand has been on a downhill slide the past few months. He's allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of his last 10 starts. He's also just 1-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 10 starts during day games.
I'll be honest, J.A. Happ was on my avoid list in March. Granted, the veteran lefty had a solid second half last season between Seattle and Pittsburgh, but the move to a hitter's venue was troublesome. On the surface, his 16-3 record with a 2.96 ERA says that was a mistake, but a 4.01 xFIP suggests the concerns were warranted. Of immediate concern is a date in Yankee Stadium against the new-look men in Pinstripes. Happ might have the platoon edge over the table setters, but the Yankees' three recent call-ups are all right-handed batter. With so many new faces, team numbers to this point are rendered moot. However, Happ's experience will help facing Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin, so expect another solid effort.
Archer, who will be facing the Padres for the first time, has been two different pitchers this season, posting a terrible 5.97 ERA on the road, compared to a stifling 2.91 ERA at home this season....Friedrich has really been struggling, posting a weak 6.03 ERA over his last seven starts, and he has allowed four more or more in seven out of his last ten starts...
You know, a pitcher actually has to be pretty good to have 16 losses in mid-August. Think about it: If he weren't good, he'd have been removed from the rotation by now. The Tampa Bay Rays have no reason to remove Chris Archer, who has obviously pitched better than his 6-16 record and 4.39 ERA suggest. A 3.42 xFIP and 17 percent home run per fly ball (HR/FB) mark point toward some bad luck, though Archer's lack of command has been a big contributing factor, too. Archer is in a great spot for a rare win, with the San Diego Padres continuing an interleague set in Tropicana Field. In fact, with a 25 percent whiff rate versus righties, the Padres offer Archer and his 10.6 K/9 a platform for a huge game.
The Giants are 7-16 in their past 23 vs. right-handed starters.
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRAN
Pittsburgh +111 over SAN FRAN
The Giants continue to stumble down the stretch. San Fran has now dropped three in a row, four of five and five of their past seven games and they have not won back-to-back games since July. With each passing loss, winning the next time out becomes more difficult and in no way would be trust Matt Cain when spotting a tag to get this thing right-sided. Cain missed two starts in late May and returned to a 1-4 record with a 5.20 ERA in his 54 innings pitched. He pitched one game and hit the DL again. In the month leading up to his injury, Cain appeared to have distanced himself from his awful April (7.00 ERA, 1.58 WHIP), posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his five May starts. Still, it should be noted that Cain?s May strand rate was a hearty 80%, and there wasn?t a large disparity between the two months? xERAs (4.79 and 4.42). Cain now brings his 5.47 ERA. 1.57 WHIP and .308 oppBA to this start. Incidentally, AT&T Park is not a pitchers park during the day so Cain?s fly-ball tendencies do not figure to play well like they do in night games in which the damp nighttime air makes scoring difficult. Cain?s groundball/fly-ball split of 37%/38% is just another troubling peripheral in his profile. Cain is a starter that threw just 61 innings last year after a strained flexor tendon at the end of spring training wiped out his first half. He was a shell of his former self when he came back and he?s been like that ever since. Cain?s velocity has now reached a career low and his strikeout rate is not far behind. Cain no longer has durability and a low hr/f going for him. He looks like longshot to pitch deep into a game or be productive, much less both.
Ivan Nova produced some decent value in July (3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). His underlying skills were good, too, and featured both strikeouts and groundballs: 8.7 K?s/9, 2.9 BB/9, 49% groundballs. His 11.0% swing and miss rate confirms that his strikeout rate was legit. A 1.9 HR/9 was the reason his ERA stayed around 4.00. Getting traded to Pittsburgh was a great fit for him. Nova?s value went up tremendously since the trade but the market isn?t considering that yet. There is a big drop in class in terms of hitters one must face when going from the AL East and facing Baltimore, Boston and Toronto frequently to facing NL teams with a hitting pitcher. Nova has two wicked pitches in his 92 mph sinker (18% swing and miss rate) and 81 mph curve ball (16% swing and miss rate). There is some sneaky value here and we?re on it. We also get the team in much better form.
Item: Carlos Villanueva ?took one for the team? (and why it is so topical for today?s board)
Baseball cannot help but be harsh to Villanueva for last night?s showing at Tampa ? if you pitched four innings and allowed seven runs, including four homers, you were terrible. But Villanueva actually played a positive role for the Padres in that game, and it is a handicapping principle that matters, especially for one of the directions I will be using on today?s board. In essence, Villanueva ?took one for the team?.
The Padres were playing their 8th road game in as many nights on Tuesday, with a quick turnaround before an early start this afternoon (in reality morning on their body clocks). With the San Diego starter having made it to the seventh inning only once throughout the trip the bullpen was badly worn down, and when Tampa jumped out 8-1 over Edwin Jackson after four innings, Andy Green knew there was little chance of winning. So he asked Villanueva to go out there and finish the game, which would at least give everyone else in the pen a break. Villanueva had little on his stuff, but professionals are paid to throw pitches, and that is what he did.
The first thing to do in the post-mortem is to not overly penalize Villanueva; it is rare when a guy is left on the mound in games in which he does not have it. But second is to recognize when a ?take one for the team? setting may be forthcoming, and open the handicapping playbook to the chapter that provides ways to take advantage of it. That takes us to the corner of Shefflield and Waveland this evening?
In the Sights?
As much as I occasionally fantasize about being an MLB manager, I wouldn?t want to be Craig Counsell tonight. Those old wild and woolly games at Wrigley Field may indeed have become a thing of the past, that new scoreboard limiting the impact of days in which the wind is blowing towards the lake. But there is a genuine potential for some of that tonight with a slight hitter?s breeze to right and a Milwaukee pitching staff that lines up about as poorly as any team in any game this season. That takes us to #910 Chicago Cubs Team Total Over (8:10 Eastern), with 5.5 -110 available in the early trading (this works up to -130).
There is no guarantee of Counsell getting either quality or quantity from Jimmy Nelson this evening. The struggling right-hander has not made it to the sixth inning in over a month, the last five starts at an ugly 0-5/6.65 in which he has only lasted 23 frames. This is hardly the setting to turn that form around, and behind Nelson is a bullpen that saw six different relievers throw at least 20 pitches yesterday, and Tyler Thornburg got to 16. On traditional fatigue charts I would call Jhan Martinez, Blaine Boyer and Tyler Cravy out, but who knows how Counsell is going to play it, especially since he has to bring his team right back for an early start tomorrow.
I look to Team Totals and Run Lines first when there is a ?take one for the team? setting, and that is what we may have here. If this game gets away, which it could in the early stages (there is no guarantee the Braun-less Brewers make anything happen vs. Jon Lester), Counsell may have to leave Nelson out there longer than his stuff may call for, or have someone from the bottom of the bullpen stay in the game whether he has any juice or not, in order to set the team up better for the games ahead. In this instance the Cubs Team Total plays out a little better than the Run Line, since Joe Maddon has bullpen issues of his own (no Aroldis Chapman or Mike Montgomery tonight).
Kansas City +108
Anibal Sanchez, he of the 6-12 record and 6.31 ERA, opened a favorite for Detroit.
Still need more reasons not to fade the Tigers? Didn't think so. But just in case here are more arguments why the Royals are worth backing in this spot.
Kansas City is playing well winning eight of its last 10, including the past three. Detroit is not losing seven of its past nine.
The Tigers have been held to two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. They have multiple injuries with the left side of their infield - third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Jose Iglesias - on the DL along with center fielder Cameron Maybin. Making things even worse for the Tigers is Miguel Cabrera has a left biceps strain. He missed last night's game and is questionable here.
It's difficult to win games when your bottom four hitters are James McCann (.210 batting average), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.200), Dixon Machado (.125) and Tyler Collins (.232). Those guys all started against the Royals last night. This lineup doesn't exactly inspire memories of the 1934 Detroit Tigers.
Now back to Sanchez. He should be pitching in middle or long relief at best. At worst, he shouldn't still be on a big league roster. He's given up 23 homers, including four during his last start in which he was hammered for eight runs in four innings by Texas last Friday. The Tigers keep trotting him out to the mound, holding their nose all the while because Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Pelfrey are on the DL.
Detroit has lost 16 of the past 21 times Sanchez has started.
I much prefer Royals starter Yordano Ventura. Sure, Ventura has maturity issues. But there's no denying his talent and nasty stuff. The key for Ventura is location and consistency. The buy sign is there now because Ventura is on a roll this month going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three outings. Go back to his last seven starts and you'll find that Ventura hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of those appearances. So the consistency is there.
Ventura also has a good track record versus Detroit. He's faced the Tigers nine times and is 6-0 with a 3.18 ERA.
Hottest team: Cubs (13-2 last 15)
The Cubs held the Brewers scoreless over the first 17 innings of Tuesday?s day-night doubleheader scoring before a sloppy Travis Wood came in and surrendered a Hernan Perez home run and Milwaukee brought the go-ahead run to the plate. Aroldis Chapman closed out both wins in the twinbill, so we?ll see if he?s available here, but considering how great the team?s starting pitching has been since the All-Star break, not having their closer on call may not matter. Even spot starter Trevor Cahill pitched five scoreless frames in Game 1 yesterday, while the typical rotation of Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Jon Lester is a combined 9-0 in August with a 1.08 ERA, giving up 12 runs in 91.2 innings. The Cubs haven?t lost any of the five games Lester (12-4, 2.93 ERA) has taken the ball in since the All-Star break, but his worst start came against these Brewers, who chased him out after four innings on July 24, scoring four runs and making him throw 100 pitches while issuing a season-high five walks. Chicago bailed him out by rallying to win that game with a five-run seventh inning and is 7-3 against Milwaukee this season. The teams will play eight more games against one another after this one. Jimmy Nelson (6-12, 4.07) has pitched great against the Cubs this season but is 0-2 despite a 1.53 ERA over three starts in which his offense got him a total of six runs. He?s 0-5 in his career against Chicago (-260), which is Wednesday's biggest 'chalk' and has opened up a five-game lead on Washington for baseball's best record.
Coldest team: Padres (0-4 last four, 2-7 last nine)
Since the Angels rallied past Seattle to snap their 11-game losing streak late Tuesday, we'll give them a break from this spot where they have deservingly taken up residence over the past week. The Padres are wrapping up a taxing nine-game road trip that has seen them go 2-6 against the Pirates, Mets and Rays. San Diego looks weary and ready to head back West, but will look to avoid being swept by a sizzling Tampa Bay offense that has scored 35 runs over its last three games, its highest total within that stretch in franchise history. Christian Friedrich (4-8, 4.84) will look to cool off the Rays, but hasn't won a decision since June 23 and has allowed at least three runs in nine of his last 10 starts. Despite its awful record, San Diego has only been swept twice since June began, and one of those was a two-game series. Tampa is heavily favored (-200) despite riding MLB loss leader Chris Archer (6-16, 4.39), who has won just two of his last 11 decisions.
Hottest pitcher: J.A. Happ (16-3, 2.96 ERA)
There are a few other deserving candidates, but no one has a better case for the AL?s Cy Young Award than the 33-year-old Happ, who came into the season with a 62-61 career record that obviously looks a lot better now. Toronto has lost only one of his last 14 starts, a span in which he?s gone 11-1. He?s allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of those outings, allowing a total of six earned runs over his last 43.1 innings. Happ is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA against the Yankees, so after erasing a 6-1 deficit with an impressive comeback, you can understand why the Blue Jays (-155) are a sizeable road favorite in the Bronx as they aim to win a series outright for the sixth time in seven tries. The UNDER is 12-4 in Toronto?s last 16 games and 4-1-1 over Happ?s last six outings. New York counters with fellow lefty CC Sabathia (7-9, 4.20), who is 0-2 against the Jays despite a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings. He got a single run of support in each of his May starts against Toronto.
Coldest pitcher: Anibal Sanchez (6-12, 6.31 ERA)
Detroit?s veteran Venezuelan starter opened August by surrendering a single run in his first two starts, but slipped up again last time out at Texas in statistically his worst outing of the season, surrendering eight runs on eight hits, four of them homers, over four innings of an 8-5 loss in Arlington. Sanchez has already lost his spot in the rotation once, so he might be pitching for the right to stay here. The Tigers have won in only one of his 12 starts this season. It doesn?t help matters that Kansas City has limited Detroit to a single run in each of the first two games of this series, which means the Tigers have now scored two or fewer runs in six of their last nine, going 2-7 in those contests and falling 3.5 games off the AL wild card pace. Royals starter Yordano Ventura (8-9, 4.60) is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA this month and 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA over 18.1 innings against the Tigers this season, improving to 6-0 lifetime against his team?s division rival. Despite those numbers, Detroit (-120) is slightly favored to avoid a series sweep.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (28-7 last 35)
After breaking through for seven runs in the final three innings of Sunday's riveting 8-7 comeback win at San Francisco, Baltimore was back home for its first home game since Aug. 4 looking to continue to build positive momentum after a lengthy rough road stretch. Instead of enjoying the comforts of home, the Orioles had to watch as Mookie Betts became first visiting player in MLB history to hit as many as seven home runs in Baltimore in a single season, a streak that dates back to 1954. Betts hit two homers, driving in all five runs in a 5-3 win that drew the Red Sox even with the Orioles for the two AL wild card spots, one game behind Toronto in the AL East. Despite Betts' fireworks, the Birds still haven't seen an OVER come in at Camden Yards since July 8, a run that includes the weekend prior to the All-Star break and spans 12 games following Tuesday's result. Dylan Bundy (6-3, 2.93) has seen the UNDER prevail in five of his last six starts, but David Price (10-8, 4.29) may snap that run since the OVER is 4-1 in his last five. Boston's key offseason acquisition is looking for wins in consecutive starts for the first time since May 24. Tonight's total is expected to hover around 9.
Biggest OVER run: Phillies (10-0 last 10, 12-1 last 13)
The Phillies had their four-game winning streak snapped, but fans still got their cheers in as they gave Chase Utley standing ovations following his two home runs, the second a grand slam, in the Dodgers? 15-5 win on Tuesday. The Phillies have still seen only one UNDER come in this entire month. Only one of Philadelphia?s last eight games at Citizens Bank Park has gone UNDER the posted total, a run that dates back to July 21. The OVER also went 6-for-6 on their West Coast stops in San Diego and L.A., with games against the Dodgers producing an average of 13.3 combined runs through the first four meetings. The Dodgers have seen the OVER hit in seven of their last eight games. Lefty Scott Kazmir (9-6, 4.44) has lost his last three starts after having won seven straight decisions, a run that existed since mid-May until it was snapped on July 30. The OVER is 5-1 in his last six starts and 2-0 in rookie Jake Thompson?s (1-1, 8.68) outings. Oddsmakers have set tonight?s total at 9.
Matchup to watch: A's at Rangers
Rougned Odor had a brutal game last night before delivering the game-winning RBI by getting hit by a pitch in the Rangers? 5-4 win. Odor contributed to Sam Dyson?s blown save with poor defense as the A?s rallied in the ninth, then went ahead 4-2 against Keone Kela in the 10th. It was the type of meltdown that can haunt a team, especially one that had just been blanked twice at home this past weekend and got four of its five runs on Monday in a single inning. Texas managed just two runs entering the ninth, but was going to escape with a win before things went downhill for the second baseman. Odor wound up laughing last after getting plunked, and the Rangers found a way out of a loss that could?ve festered. Carlos Beltran went 4-for-5 and delivered the game-tying hit in extras. Yu Darvish (3-3, 2.77) has pitched great of late and will look to secure a winning homestand with a sweep of Oakland before hitting the road for series against last-place Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Darvish, who turned 30 on Tuesday, has struggled throughout his career against the A's, coming in 1-8 with a 4.76 ERA. Texas is the only team in the AL atop the 70-win mark. Only the Cubs are a heavier favorite on Wednesday than the Rangers (-210), who run up against A?s rookie lefty Sean Manaea (4-7, 4.57). The under has prevailed in Texas? last four games and is 13-3-1 over the last 17.
Betcha didn?t know: James Paxton landing on the disabled list will lead to Seattle riding with another arm set to make their first start for its team on Wednesday. Cody Martin (1-2, 2.70), a 26-year-old who was a First Team All-American at Gonzaga, will become the 13th pitcher to start a game for the Mariners and is part of a team-record 29-man contingent to throw for Seattle already this season. Martin made two starts with the A's last year, giving up 11 earned runs over six innings in taking two losses and being demoted to bullpen duty. Martin has made five relief appearances for the M's but has made 18 starts at Triple-A Tacoma, where he?s gone 9-7 with a 3.93 ERA. Arquimedes Caminero blew a one-run lead in the bottom of the eighth in Anaheim Tuesday to end a three-game winning streak, but the Mariners have survived all the attrition in their rotation enough to have won 11 of 14. Seattle has lost consecutive games only twice since the All-Star break, a run that dates back to July 7. The Angels have only won back-to-back games once since July 26 but will be favored behind lefty Tyler Skaggs (1-1, 4.37).
3:45 PM [903] PIT PIRATES +103 ( I NOVA -R / M CAIN -R )
1:05 PM [913] TOR BLUE JAYS -150 ( J HAPP -L / C SABATHIA -L )
1:10 PM [926] TB RAYS -1.5 +115 ( C FRIEDRICH -L / C ARCHER -R )
1 unit bet pays 13.55 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay later
MLB parlays: 12-134, -29.48 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Happ?s won an amazing 10 of 11 starts, with the other one being a no decision. He?s allowed a mere three earned runs over his last five starts
Toronto -152
A little pricey for the Jays, but that's expected with this ball club....Yankees jumped out early yesterday, but the Jays got the bats rolling..The deep ball was in effect and I believe it will be again here...Yankees send out Sabathia and he hasn't been sharp over the last month and a half...His ERA has spiked now at 4.20...It was at one time 2.71....So he has fell off now in the 2nd half of the season and facing the Jays won;t be easy...Bluejays have seen Sabathia enough over the last few years to know what he is good at...Jays should be able to get after Sabathia here...His walks are up and he has allowed 7 HR's in his last 4 games...He is clearly missing on something right now...I doubt he gets it fixed up for this lineup...Jays send out Happ and he is 16-3...His 2.96 ERA is for real and he has been tough all year..He doesn't allow many hits at all and his strikeouts are way up..He has become on the nominees for the Cy Young IMO....He won't give up enough here for the Yanks to factor..Jays should roll..I like the RL as well at a small + price.
Blue Jays -143
Toronto is worth a look here against the Yankees on Wednesday. Blue Jays are without a doubt the better team and will have a big time edge on the mound with J.A. Happ facing off against C.C. Sabathia. Happ has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2016 season. He's 16-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 23 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he enters with a 0.95 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sabathia on the other hand has been on a downhill slide the past few months. He's allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of his last 10 starts. He's also just 1-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 10 starts during day games.
I'll be honest, J.A. Happ was on my avoid list in March. Granted, the veteran lefty had a solid second half last season between Seattle and Pittsburgh, but the move to a hitter's venue was troublesome. On the surface, his 16-3 record with a 2.96 ERA says that was a mistake, but a 4.01 xFIP suggests the concerns were warranted. Of immediate concern is a date in Yankee Stadium against the new-look men in Pinstripes. Happ might have the platoon edge over the table setters, but the Yankees' three recent call-ups are all right-handed batter. With so many new faces, team numbers to this point are rendered moot. However, Happ's experience will help facing Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin, so expect another solid effort.
Archer, who will be facing the Padres for the first time, has been two different pitchers this season, posting a terrible 5.97 ERA on the road, compared to a stifling 2.91 ERA at home this season....Friedrich has really been struggling, posting a weak 6.03 ERA over his last seven starts, and he has allowed four more or more in seven out of his last ten starts...
You know, a pitcher actually has to be pretty good to have 16 losses in mid-August. Think about it: If he weren't good, he'd have been removed from the rotation by now. The Tampa Bay Rays have no reason to remove Chris Archer, who has obviously pitched better than his 6-16 record and 4.39 ERA suggest. A 3.42 xFIP and 17 percent home run per fly ball (HR/FB) mark point toward some bad luck, though Archer's lack of command has been a big contributing factor, too. Archer is in a great spot for a rare win, with the San Diego Padres continuing an interleague set in Tropicana Field. In fact, with a 25 percent whiff rate versus righties, the Padres offer Archer and his 10.6 K/9 a platform for a huge game.
The Giants are 7-16 in their past 23 vs. right-handed starters.
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRAN
Pittsburgh +111 over SAN FRAN
The Giants continue to stumble down the stretch. San Fran has now dropped three in a row, four of five and five of their past seven games and they have not won back-to-back games since July. With each passing loss, winning the next time out becomes more difficult and in no way would be trust Matt Cain when spotting a tag to get this thing right-sided. Cain missed two starts in late May and returned to a 1-4 record with a 5.20 ERA in his 54 innings pitched. He pitched one game and hit the DL again. In the month leading up to his injury, Cain appeared to have distanced himself from his awful April (7.00 ERA, 1.58 WHIP), posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his five May starts. Still, it should be noted that Cain?s May strand rate was a hearty 80%, and there wasn?t a large disparity between the two months? xERAs (4.79 and 4.42). Cain now brings his 5.47 ERA. 1.57 WHIP and .308 oppBA to this start. Incidentally, AT&T Park is not a pitchers park during the day so Cain?s fly-ball tendencies do not figure to play well like they do in night games in which the damp nighttime air makes scoring difficult. Cain?s groundball/fly-ball split of 37%/38% is just another troubling peripheral in his profile. Cain is a starter that threw just 61 innings last year after a strained flexor tendon at the end of spring training wiped out his first half. He was a shell of his former self when he came back and he?s been like that ever since. Cain?s velocity has now reached a career low and his strikeout rate is not far behind. Cain no longer has durability and a low hr/f going for him. He looks like longshot to pitch deep into a game or be productive, much less both.
Ivan Nova produced some decent value in July (3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). His underlying skills were good, too, and featured both strikeouts and groundballs: 8.7 K?s/9, 2.9 BB/9, 49% groundballs. His 11.0% swing and miss rate confirms that his strikeout rate was legit. A 1.9 HR/9 was the reason his ERA stayed around 4.00. Getting traded to Pittsburgh was a great fit for him. Nova?s value went up tremendously since the trade but the market isn?t considering that yet. There is a big drop in class in terms of hitters one must face when going from the AL East and facing Baltimore, Boston and Toronto frequently to facing NL teams with a hitting pitcher. Nova has two wicked pitches in his 92 mph sinker (18% swing and miss rate) and 81 mph curve ball (16% swing and miss rate). There is some sneaky value here and we?re on it. We also get the team in much better form.
Item: Carlos Villanueva ?took one for the team? (and why it is so topical for today?s board)
Baseball cannot help but be harsh to Villanueva for last night?s showing at Tampa ? if you pitched four innings and allowed seven runs, including four homers, you were terrible. But Villanueva actually played a positive role for the Padres in that game, and it is a handicapping principle that matters, especially for one of the directions I will be using on today?s board. In essence, Villanueva ?took one for the team?.
The Padres were playing their 8th road game in as many nights on Tuesday, with a quick turnaround before an early start this afternoon (in reality morning on their body clocks). With the San Diego starter having made it to the seventh inning only once throughout the trip the bullpen was badly worn down, and when Tampa jumped out 8-1 over Edwin Jackson after four innings, Andy Green knew there was little chance of winning. So he asked Villanueva to go out there and finish the game, which would at least give everyone else in the pen a break. Villanueva had little on his stuff, but professionals are paid to throw pitches, and that is what he did.
The first thing to do in the post-mortem is to not overly penalize Villanueva; it is rare when a guy is left on the mound in games in which he does not have it. But second is to recognize when a ?take one for the team? setting may be forthcoming, and open the handicapping playbook to the chapter that provides ways to take advantage of it. That takes us to the corner of Shefflield and Waveland this evening?
In the Sights?
As much as I occasionally fantasize about being an MLB manager, I wouldn?t want to be Craig Counsell tonight. Those old wild and woolly games at Wrigley Field may indeed have become a thing of the past, that new scoreboard limiting the impact of days in which the wind is blowing towards the lake. But there is a genuine potential for some of that tonight with a slight hitter?s breeze to right and a Milwaukee pitching staff that lines up about as poorly as any team in any game this season. That takes us to #910 Chicago Cubs Team Total Over (8:10 Eastern), with 5.5 -110 available in the early trading (this works up to -130).
There is no guarantee of Counsell getting either quality or quantity from Jimmy Nelson this evening. The struggling right-hander has not made it to the sixth inning in over a month, the last five starts at an ugly 0-5/6.65 in which he has only lasted 23 frames. This is hardly the setting to turn that form around, and behind Nelson is a bullpen that saw six different relievers throw at least 20 pitches yesterday, and Tyler Thornburg got to 16. On traditional fatigue charts I would call Jhan Martinez, Blaine Boyer and Tyler Cravy out, but who knows how Counsell is going to play it, especially since he has to bring his team right back for an early start tomorrow.
I look to Team Totals and Run Lines first when there is a ?take one for the team? setting, and that is what we may have here. If this game gets away, which it could in the early stages (there is no guarantee the Braun-less Brewers make anything happen vs. Jon Lester), Counsell may have to leave Nelson out there longer than his stuff may call for, or have someone from the bottom of the bullpen stay in the game whether he has any juice or not, in order to set the team up better for the games ahead. In this instance the Cubs Team Total plays out a little better than the Run Line, since Joe Maddon has bullpen issues of his own (no Aroldis Chapman or Mike Montgomery tonight).
Kansas City +108
Anibal Sanchez, he of the 6-12 record and 6.31 ERA, opened a favorite for Detroit.
Still need more reasons not to fade the Tigers? Didn't think so. But just in case here are more arguments why the Royals are worth backing in this spot.
Kansas City is playing well winning eight of its last 10, including the past three. Detroit is not losing seven of its past nine.
The Tigers have been held to two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. They have multiple injuries with the left side of their infield - third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Jose Iglesias - on the DL along with center fielder Cameron Maybin. Making things even worse for the Tigers is Miguel Cabrera has a left biceps strain. He missed last night's game and is questionable here.
It's difficult to win games when your bottom four hitters are James McCann (.210 batting average), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.200), Dixon Machado (.125) and Tyler Collins (.232). Those guys all started against the Royals last night. This lineup doesn't exactly inspire memories of the 1934 Detroit Tigers.
Now back to Sanchez. He should be pitching in middle or long relief at best. At worst, he shouldn't still be on a big league roster. He's given up 23 homers, including four during his last start in which he was hammered for eight runs in four innings by Texas last Friday. The Tigers keep trotting him out to the mound, holding their nose all the while because Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Pelfrey are on the DL.
Detroit has lost 16 of the past 21 times Sanchez has started.
I much prefer Royals starter Yordano Ventura. Sure, Ventura has maturity issues. But there's no denying his talent and nasty stuff. The key for Ventura is location and consistency. The buy sign is there now because Ventura is on a roll this month going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three outings. Go back to his last seven starts and you'll find that Ventura hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of those appearances. So the consistency is there.
Ventura also has a good track record versus Detroit. He's faced the Tigers nine times and is 6-0 with a 3.18 ERA.
Hottest team: Cubs (13-2 last 15)
The Cubs held the Brewers scoreless over the first 17 innings of Tuesday?s day-night doubleheader scoring before a sloppy Travis Wood came in and surrendered a Hernan Perez home run and Milwaukee brought the go-ahead run to the plate. Aroldis Chapman closed out both wins in the twinbill, so we?ll see if he?s available here, but considering how great the team?s starting pitching has been since the All-Star break, not having their closer on call may not matter. Even spot starter Trevor Cahill pitched five scoreless frames in Game 1 yesterday, while the typical rotation of Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Jon Lester is a combined 9-0 in August with a 1.08 ERA, giving up 12 runs in 91.2 innings. The Cubs haven?t lost any of the five games Lester (12-4, 2.93 ERA) has taken the ball in since the All-Star break, but his worst start came against these Brewers, who chased him out after four innings on July 24, scoring four runs and making him throw 100 pitches while issuing a season-high five walks. Chicago bailed him out by rallying to win that game with a five-run seventh inning and is 7-3 against Milwaukee this season. The teams will play eight more games against one another after this one. Jimmy Nelson (6-12, 4.07) has pitched great against the Cubs this season but is 0-2 despite a 1.53 ERA over three starts in which his offense got him a total of six runs. He?s 0-5 in his career against Chicago (-260), which is Wednesday's biggest 'chalk' and has opened up a five-game lead on Washington for baseball's best record.
Coldest team: Padres (0-4 last four, 2-7 last nine)
Since the Angels rallied past Seattle to snap their 11-game losing streak late Tuesday, we'll give them a break from this spot where they have deservingly taken up residence over the past week. The Padres are wrapping up a taxing nine-game road trip that has seen them go 2-6 against the Pirates, Mets and Rays. San Diego looks weary and ready to head back West, but will look to avoid being swept by a sizzling Tampa Bay offense that has scored 35 runs over its last three games, its highest total within that stretch in franchise history. Christian Friedrich (4-8, 4.84) will look to cool off the Rays, but hasn't won a decision since June 23 and has allowed at least three runs in nine of his last 10 starts. Despite its awful record, San Diego has only been swept twice since June began, and one of those was a two-game series. Tampa is heavily favored (-200) despite riding MLB loss leader Chris Archer (6-16, 4.39), who has won just two of his last 11 decisions.
Hottest pitcher: J.A. Happ (16-3, 2.96 ERA)
There are a few other deserving candidates, but no one has a better case for the AL?s Cy Young Award than the 33-year-old Happ, who came into the season with a 62-61 career record that obviously looks a lot better now. Toronto has lost only one of his last 14 starts, a span in which he?s gone 11-1. He?s allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of those outings, allowing a total of six earned runs over his last 43.1 innings. Happ is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA against the Yankees, so after erasing a 6-1 deficit with an impressive comeback, you can understand why the Blue Jays (-155) are a sizeable road favorite in the Bronx as they aim to win a series outright for the sixth time in seven tries. The UNDER is 12-4 in Toronto?s last 16 games and 4-1-1 over Happ?s last six outings. New York counters with fellow lefty CC Sabathia (7-9, 4.20), who is 0-2 against the Jays despite a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings. He got a single run of support in each of his May starts against Toronto.
Coldest pitcher: Anibal Sanchez (6-12, 6.31 ERA)
Detroit?s veteran Venezuelan starter opened August by surrendering a single run in his first two starts, but slipped up again last time out at Texas in statistically his worst outing of the season, surrendering eight runs on eight hits, four of them homers, over four innings of an 8-5 loss in Arlington. Sanchez has already lost his spot in the rotation once, so he might be pitching for the right to stay here. The Tigers have won in only one of his 12 starts this season. It doesn?t help matters that Kansas City has limited Detroit to a single run in each of the first two games of this series, which means the Tigers have now scored two or fewer runs in six of their last nine, going 2-7 in those contests and falling 3.5 games off the AL wild card pace. Royals starter Yordano Ventura (8-9, 4.60) is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA this month and 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA over 18.1 innings against the Tigers this season, improving to 6-0 lifetime against his team?s division rival. Despite those numbers, Detroit (-120) is slightly favored to avoid a series sweep.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (28-7 last 35)
After breaking through for seven runs in the final three innings of Sunday's riveting 8-7 comeback win at San Francisco, Baltimore was back home for its first home game since Aug. 4 looking to continue to build positive momentum after a lengthy rough road stretch. Instead of enjoying the comforts of home, the Orioles had to watch as Mookie Betts became first visiting player in MLB history to hit as many as seven home runs in Baltimore in a single season, a streak that dates back to 1954. Betts hit two homers, driving in all five runs in a 5-3 win that drew the Red Sox even with the Orioles for the two AL wild card spots, one game behind Toronto in the AL East. Despite Betts' fireworks, the Birds still haven't seen an OVER come in at Camden Yards since July 8, a run that includes the weekend prior to the All-Star break and spans 12 games following Tuesday's result. Dylan Bundy (6-3, 2.93) has seen the UNDER prevail in five of his last six starts, but David Price (10-8, 4.29) may snap that run since the OVER is 4-1 in his last five. Boston's key offseason acquisition is looking for wins in consecutive starts for the first time since May 24. Tonight's total is expected to hover around 9.
Biggest OVER run: Phillies (10-0 last 10, 12-1 last 13)
The Phillies had their four-game winning streak snapped, but fans still got their cheers in as they gave Chase Utley standing ovations following his two home runs, the second a grand slam, in the Dodgers? 15-5 win on Tuesday. The Phillies have still seen only one UNDER come in this entire month. Only one of Philadelphia?s last eight games at Citizens Bank Park has gone UNDER the posted total, a run that dates back to July 21. The OVER also went 6-for-6 on their West Coast stops in San Diego and L.A., with games against the Dodgers producing an average of 13.3 combined runs through the first four meetings. The Dodgers have seen the OVER hit in seven of their last eight games. Lefty Scott Kazmir (9-6, 4.44) has lost his last three starts after having won seven straight decisions, a run that existed since mid-May until it was snapped on July 30. The OVER is 5-1 in his last six starts and 2-0 in rookie Jake Thompson?s (1-1, 8.68) outings. Oddsmakers have set tonight?s total at 9.
Matchup to watch: A's at Rangers
Rougned Odor had a brutal game last night before delivering the game-winning RBI by getting hit by a pitch in the Rangers? 5-4 win. Odor contributed to Sam Dyson?s blown save with poor defense as the A?s rallied in the ninth, then went ahead 4-2 against Keone Kela in the 10th. It was the type of meltdown that can haunt a team, especially one that had just been blanked twice at home this past weekend and got four of its five runs on Monday in a single inning. Texas managed just two runs entering the ninth, but was going to escape with a win before things went downhill for the second baseman. Odor wound up laughing last after getting plunked, and the Rangers found a way out of a loss that could?ve festered. Carlos Beltran went 4-for-5 and delivered the game-tying hit in extras. Yu Darvish (3-3, 2.77) has pitched great of late and will look to secure a winning homestand with a sweep of Oakland before hitting the road for series against last-place Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Darvish, who turned 30 on Tuesday, has struggled throughout his career against the A's, coming in 1-8 with a 4.76 ERA. Texas is the only team in the AL atop the 70-win mark. Only the Cubs are a heavier favorite on Wednesday than the Rangers (-210), who run up against A?s rookie lefty Sean Manaea (4-7, 4.57). The under has prevailed in Texas? last four games and is 13-3-1 over the last 17.
Betcha didn?t know: James Paxton landing on the disabled list will lead to Seattle riding with another arm set to make their first start for its team on Wednesday. Cody Martin (1-2, 2.70), a 26-year-old who was a First Team All-American at Gonzaga, will become the 13th pitcher to start a game for the Mariners and is part of a team-record 29-man contingent to throw for Seattle already this season. Martin made two starts with the A's last year, giving up 11 earned runs over six innings in taking two losses and being demoted to bullpen duty. Martin has made five relief appearances for the M's but has made 18 starts at Triple-A Tacoma, where he?s gone 9-7 with a 3.93 ERA. Arquimedes Caminero blew a one-run lead in the bottom of the eighth in Anaheim Tuesday to end a three-game winning streak, but the Mariners have survived all the attrition in their rotation enough to have won 11 of 14. Seattle has lost consecutive games only twice since the All-Star break, a run that dates back to July 7. The Angels have only won back-to-back games once since July 26 but will be favored behind lefty Tyler Skaggs (1-1, 4.37).
