Week 1 of "The Public is Wrong" system

[Marra]

I have decided to try out a little system I thought up. It's a simple premis that is talked about a lot around here...The public is usually wrong. The bookmakers are much sharper than the public. So, using ********* which gives me the consensus on the games, I have decided to see how betting against a 75% or greater consensus would do...Here are the teams that I will be betting ON b/c they are bet on by less than 25% of the public-

Houston +27.5 / MSU
Wazzu +6 / N.D.
Nevada +22 / Oregon
Indiana +25 / Washington
Ball St. +14 / Mississippi
ECarolina +8.5 / WVa
New Mexico +13 / Texas Tech
Army +16 / UCONN
MTSU +30 / Georgia

I am not going to bet on these games yet, but I am going to track the system for a few weeks and see how it does. Who knows, maybe we'll get another good angle...

 

[AR182]

marra,

are you sure about nevada? you will notice if you surf the other forums that almost everybody is playing nevada.


anyway good luck this weekend.

 

[JEFF]

Marra- You may also want to keep track of how the biggest consensus road faves perform. I'm always too lazy to keep track for a whole season, but I've faded them a lot and I guarantee if you went against the top few each week you'd win good $$.

 

[Marra]

Houston +27.5 / MSU (Supposed to be Mich) L
Wazzu +6 / N.D. W
Nevada +22 / Oregon W
Indiana +25 / Washington P
Ball St. +14 / Missouri L
ECarolina +8.5 / WVa L
New Mexico +13 / Texas Tech L
Army +16 / UCONN L
MTSU +30 / Georgia W

Pretty ordinary performance. The Indiana game was rediculous. I didn't play any of these games b/c I wanted to see how the system worked, and my damn sportsbook was down.

I will give it another go in the next few weeks, as this week may be an aborration.

Good luck to everyone in the NFL.

 

[Antonio]

Marra been doing this for years, depends on your % cut-off and participant #. Last year after 123 plays it went 72-51 58.5% Not including bowl games where it hit 61%. I'll take that any time

 

[Marra]

Didn't know that Antonio....thanks.

Is there any significant advantage to betting HD or AF or anything like that?