Week 10 Card (Nov 1st-3rd)

[Irish]

Ill (-11.5) over Minny

Minny has lost to the teams in conference by 16 point average. That fact is screwd because 4 of the 5 teams beat Minny by 14 Plus and 1 point loss to one team (N'Western). Illinois leads the Big Ten in rushing and ranks eighth in the NCAA. The Illini are averaging 240.6 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry this season. The Illinois defense has recorded 30 sacks this season, which ranks 10th in the nation. With 11 more quarterback sacks in the final three games. That defense has given up points but nothing compared to the Minny defense that has not held a divisional team under 30. Remember this is a Minny team that lost to North Dakota State by SIX! BUT The Golden Gophers have been winners in the last three meetings between the two schools, but have been off the Illinois schedule for the last two years. T his game will be won by running the ball and the lack of Minny being able to stop that rushing attack. Rashard Mendenhall has recorded five 100-yard rushing game this season. The Illini has to establish the run to open up Juice to the pass. The gophers will attemp to focus on the run and Benn will be open all game if Williams is on target with his throws. That will come easier if the playaction works. Worried about this being an away game for Ill and spotting a good bit of chalk. The Illini are 3-5-1 in the Metrodome since the Gophers began playing there in 1982. This is a different team coming into Minny's dome. This year Illinois play in domes in three of its six away games. With its 41-20 win over Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. The BIGGEST problem here is it is an away game with Ohio St on deck, a big trap game for Ill but IMO they have the talent to out play a poor Minny team.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Wake (-1.5) over UVA
The Wahoos showed last week they just don't have the offense to be a contender. The Demon Deacons own a six-game winning streak and a 6-
2 overall record. Virginia, 7-2 overall and 3-1 in the ACC, enters the game after having had its seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 29-24 loss at North Carolina State. Wake is second in the Atlantic Division while Virginia leads the Coastal Division. The Cavaliers have won the last two games and 19 of the last 20 meetings. In games played in Charlottesville, Virginia leads 16-8. Each of the last three contests have been decided by four points or fewer. BUT Wake Forest is the ACC leader in kickoff returns with a 25.2 team average. This will play a big part in the game because I think the UVA offense will sputter and the puter will get his reps in during the game. The Deacons have nine non-offensive touchdowns this season (5 interception returns, 1 kickoff return, 1 punt return, 2 fumble returns). This is Why I believe the lack luster UVA offense will struggle. Since the start of the 2006 season, a span covering 22 games, Wake Forest is 17-5. Of the five losses, four have been to ranked teams and the other to a then-unranked Boston College which is now number two. This will be a hard faught ACC match up but IMO WAKE has more talent on defense against a poor UVA offense. The UVA defense is decent but Wake has seen defenseive talent and been able to move the ball. UVA lost to Wyomig, should have lost to Maryland and lost to NC St, that speaks to how well they play even though those were road games. Yes UVA is a better home team but the injuries to RB and the poor play at QB will give the Wake defense enough oppertunities to make game changing plays while the offense finds a way to put points on the board being set up by solid returns in the special team game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

navy (+3.5) over nd
navy has always come to play nd and never had the edge to win. this is a great spot for them to come in a punch an nd team while they are down. nd is a better run stopping team than pass defense but they have gaping holes when it comes to misdirection. the navy qb can pass better than expected and if nd plays run only the mids can throw it deep. when looking at nd they have issues at almost every position. they do line up well against a navy because zibakowski can be in the box where he is most comfortable. the running attack for navy will read the ends and make big plays. nd is not coached wll enough to maintain assignments and thats bad against an option team. navys defense will allow nd to score but the lack of irish firepower will keep the score within a level navy can contend against. i am not sold that nd even wins this game, navy shows up week after week with a lets go attitude and nd although win hungry are beaten. at what point do you think nd shows they can spot a team points, navy will have a fan base at the game and nds fans are not going to be eletric so i am not affraid of the location. what i like is the want teams have to win against teams (in a down year) that have always been the better team. this is a great spot for navy to beat a team they are better than. navy limits the mistakes, control the clock, run to move the chains and make enough passing plays while the defense bends but doesn't break. i think navy wins but i'll take to points.

cheers
irish

 

[Irish]

GT(-2.5) over vt
this game comes down to a couple of factors. home field will be huge tonight, blacksburg is a tough place on thursday but reports say gt is going to try and make it impossible for vt tonight. vt is off an emotion loss last thursday, i am not sure they can recover in a week against a very good team away. choice being out hurts but hall being out hurts more. he is the rock on that defense and is the playcaller, now adibi has to take over that role and his lb group becomes a lot slower...i mean a lot slower. also harris and flowers are banged up in the secondary. vt has ellis on the d-line and he is a monster but gt big o-line should game plan for screens against that pin your ears back rush. another huge factor, an extra week for gt to focus on vt. i am sure the whole team watched last thursday and saw some things to key on. another factor is vts offense, ore played better last week but they still only scored 10 and the td to royal should have been overturned. taylor is hurt and glennon cannot handle pressure. gt has to blitz because glennon will play himself out of the game. the vt offense relies on big plays to makke things happen, they do not just drive down the field with consistancy, that lack of ability will play into gts defese tonight and i expect some turnovers to go the yellowjackets way. special teams and defense are how the hokies beat clemson but they will not be a deciding factor tonight as the defense will lose steam play 80% of the game as the offense gives them no rest. GT will run the ball and the qb has to get it out quickly to avoid the VT pressure rush. without hall VT cannot be as blitz happy and that is a bonus for GT. i would like to see a lot of screens for GT, VT is too aggressive on d-line and will over persue givin the set up. a lot of defense in this game but GT has more going thier way and they have the crowd. VT offense will be eposed again and the defense will tire enough for the rambling wreck to put enough on the board. GT should look to score points early because VT is a terrible come from behind team.

cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

GT/VT UNDER (40.5) game
GT/VT UNDER (20.5) 1st half
VT holds BC to zero points into the 4th with 4 mins to go game total is 24. GT and clemson play and total 16 points. Clemson and BC ;do not have near the defense of VT or GT which leads me to believe points are going to be hard to come by. AND add in VT's struggle to do anything on offense and it looks like a low total tonight. Looks a little suspisious but I'll bite.


:shrug:
Not playing it but if the game total is 40, the half time is 20 why is the first quarter line 7.5??? Wouldn't 9 or even 10 be more fitting?

Cheers
Irish

 

[godsfavoritedog]

:shrug:
Not playing it but if the game total is 40, the half time is 20 why is the first quarter line 7.5??? Wouldn't 9 or even 10 be more fitting?

Cheers
Irish

7.5 looks to be the right number. 1st quarter lines are always less than 25% of the game total. It must be because there is no urgency for a team to try to score before the clock expires on a quarter, unlike with a half.

 

[Irish]

GFD -I understand that aspect but I figured that the total is relativly high for two solid defenses and to say 7.5 and not 7 or 6 is confusing in my opinion. Thanks for the post and GL this weekend.

BIG PLAY
Oregon (-7) over Arizona St
The sundevils are not a good away team, yes they are undefeated but watching them week in and out they are a different team away. They have a very good offense a defense that is getting better week in and out and a smart head coach. They go into Oregon where the ducks should have something to prove because the devils are the higher ranked team. I expect a little let down after the USC game for Oregon but I expect the same after the Cal win. The home crowd should get oregon to show up sooner and start scoring on a ASU team that will struggle against the different threats Oregon presents. Oregon has a running threat, passing threat and scrambling QB threat. They beat USC but I don't think the Ducks were really firing. They sputtered out a few times in USC territory and I think they play a little better in this game considering USC is a good defensive team and Oregon moved the ball when they wanted. ASU has a hurt QB but I would not put too much faith in the reports Carpenter is too hurt to throw at practice, thats gamesmenship at its best. Still both teams have made strides on defense and I expect the ducks to make a defensive play in this game. The home field, explosive offense, banged up ASU qb and the fact Oregon is the better team will let me spot a TD. This is going to be a track meet and after watching ASU start slow against Cal, and struggle with Wash st makes me think they will have a tough time with an offense that seems to get better every week. As always Dixon and Stewart are the keys to the offense but I think the difference maker in this game is the ability of the Oregon line to stop any rush ASU throws at them. USC did not get ANY pressure on Dixon until late in the second. The ducks o-line sets up the weapons for a big day. They outrun ASU at home.

Oregon St (+15) over USC
This looks like a rebound play but the beavers are playing good football and should not fear the trojans. I think they will use Bernard and WR's to keep USC defense guessing but they will not score at a breakneck pace the key for the beavers is to score early before the USC coaching staff can make adjustments. USC is not the power they once were and I have not seen them blow the doors off a team. They play well but they need more big plays with the talent they have they just are not getting them and eventually that gets into guys heads they try too hard and make more mistakes trying to make huge plays. This game will be a tough match up. I would love this play is Org St was the home team but they will bring their A game and should give the trojans a scare. It will come down to how the ball bounces, the trojans have been most explosive when they establish the run first. The beavers have to step up and put a talented secondary on a young WR group. These WR are good but the beavers can play mam or zone against them. No true game changer for Org st other than the running back and he just gets it done, even when the other team plays run only. They have the ability to pass but they are not dangerous passing all game. This will be a good, well played contest and IMO just a bit too much for a down team off a tough loss to spot a hungry team looking to de-thrown the power in the PAC for so many years.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

BLOCKED FG... Hooked it!:00hour

GT/VT UNDER (20) 2nd half
Gleenon CANNOT stay this hot. That underneath out into the flat will be a second half adjustment.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

GT (-3) over VT
Same reason as the under, Glennon will not be as comfortable if the flats are taken away. GT needs the freshman to get in there and knock some guys over again. I know VT with a lead will not let the up after the BC game but I am sure they will ease off the gas a bit trying to get the clock to burn.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Okie St (+3.5) over Texas
Home with a lot to prove against a less than sub par texas team is a good spot for Okie. The longhorns needed a rally last week to come back and that was soley on the running back. This game will be decided by offense and ever since the outburst by the coach these okie st players have bought in to the system and playing well. They will have a good offense to test the texas defense and vise versa. I think this will be an offensive battle and I like Okie st to actually win this game considering they are the home team and have a lot to play for and should raise their level of play. Still I'll chicken out and take the points again because it is after all texas and they can come out focused and ready and play well.

Mizzou (-4) over Colorado
I am sorry, even with the home field colorado has not impressed me and they are young and just not to the level I feel Mizzou is playing. The offensive fire power of the tigers should poass with ease as Kansas did in Colorado. I think the buffs are given too much credit for the okie win. Remember the sooners had that game let off the gas and got burned on the back end. Mizzou has too much to prove in this must win division game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Running out the door this morning, hope to be back before the Ducks game but more than likely will be out till Cal.

No time for big write ups.....

UNC (-2.5) over Mary
Home field and both teams need this game. UNC is a good home team and I just don't think Maryland has the offense. Key is lattimore and shutting him down.

S.Car (ML) over Ark
Dick has shown he just CANNOT throw the ball. Spurrir should get what he needs on defense to stop the Arky attack and S.Car has proven they can play in tough places.

Wash (-3) over Stan
Better team, not a factor dealing with the home field. Wash comes in with better QB, Defense and RB play. Injuries and the lack of defense will hurt Stanford.

BC/FSU UNDER (42)
Rain, wind and FSU zero offense tough defense should keep this low.

Cal (-14.5) over Wash St
Cal off a tough loss, at home against a poor road team with an injury at running back and a QB that is not good enough to beat Cal passing. Forsett should have a big day and Longshore needs to come back in and pass well.

GL to all this weekend!

Cheers
Irish