WEEK 10 INFO

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LVSC Rankings - Week 10

Nine weeks of the college football regular season is in the books and only seven out of 120 teams are still unbeaten. Looking at those schools, you could argue that five or six will finish the year 12-0 or 13-0.

Florida (1) and Alabama (3) are both four wins away from reaching the SEC Championship with perfect marks, which means one will advance to the BCS Championship and other will most likely earn an at-large BCS berth.

Of the final four games, the Gators have a road test at South Carolina in two weeks while the Crimson Tide could have their hands full this Saturday when LSU visits Tuscaloosa.



Texas (2) jumped Alabama in the AP poll and BCS poll after completing a brutal three-game set, which included impressive road victories at Missouri (41-7) and Oklahoma State (41-14). The Longhorns will be double-digit favorites in their final four games and probably the Big 12 title game as well. If Mack Brown?s team wins out, then expect to see them in Pasadena on Jan. 7, 2010.

Iowa (11) sits behind the above trio in the latest BCS rankings but the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants still aren?t buying into the Hawkeyes. The first place team in the Big 10 sits behind Penn State (8) and Ohio State (9) in this week?s rankings. The Nittany Lions and Buckeyes square off in Happy Valley this weekend. If PSU wins, Iowa will need to win two of its final three victories to seal the conference. Kirk Ferentz and company host Northwestern and Minnesota but have a battle at Columbus next Saturday, which has no Big 10 title implications unless the Buckeyes win at Penn State this weekend.

It would be hard to see the Hawkeyes jump past any of the above three in the BCS Rankings and definitely not the LVSC Rankings, but a trip to Pasadena and a spot in the Rose Bowl seems more than likely.

While Iowa?s road has one speed bump left, most would argue that TCU (7), Boise State (10) and Cincinnati (13) have a great shot to run the table. It?s probably still a little too early but we asked LVSC senior oddsmaker Mike Seba to create some tentative lines on possible bowl matchups.


BCS Championship ? Texas vs. Florida (-3)
Rose Bowl ? Oregon (-6) vs. Iowa
Orange Bowl ? Cincinnati (-1) vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl ? Alabama (-6, 36) vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl ? Boise State vs. Penn State (-2.5)

Based on past BCS history, the upcoming five games might be the most competitive in recent years. We didn?t delve into the totals too much but Seba and the crew at LVSC told us that they would send out the TCU-Alabama matchup at 36, which would be the lowest ?over/under? posted this season.

Below is complete breakdown of this week?s LVSC rankings.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants - Week 9 Rankings
Rank Team Rating Last Week BCS Rank

1 Florida 122.0 1 1
2 Texas 119.8 2 2
3 Alabama 117.9 3 3
4 Oklahoma 114.8 5 24
5 Southern Cal 114.6 4 12
6 Oregon 114.0 9 8
7 Texas Christian 113.3 5 6
8 Penn State 112.2 7 11
9 Ohio State 111.7 7 16
10 Boise State 111.3 10 7
11 Iowa 110.9 11 4
12 LSU 110.5 13 9
13 Cincinnati 110.0 14 5
14 Georgia Tech 109.0 16 10
15 Texas Tech 108.7 19 NR
16 Mississippi 108.5 12 NR
17 Clemson 108.3 17 NR
18 Nebraska 108.2 20 NR
18 California 108.2 17 20
20 Tennessee 107.8 24 NR
20 Oklahoma State 107.8 15 19
22 Miami 107.3 22 17
23 Pittsburgh 107.2 23 13
24 Virginia Tech 107.1 20 23
25 Georgia 106.9 27 NR
26 Arizona 106.5 26 18
27 Arkansas 106.2 28 NR
28 Notre Dame 106.1 24 22
29 Stanford 105.9 28 NR
30 Brigham Young 105.8 NR 31 NR

Dropped out of Top 30:South Carolina (28)
Next 10: Missouri, Boston College, Wisconsin (21 BCS), Oregon State, Florida State, Michigan State, Utah (14 BCS), South Carolina, Connecticut & West Virginia

 

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November CFB Teams to Wager On

November CFB Teams to Wager On

November CFB Teams to Wager On

The last month of the college football season separates the contenders from the pretenders. This is the time where the best teams go and secure conference titles, while those with weakness are found to be fraudulent and meekly fall to the wayside. Teams that have has poor years will often be roughed up by better squads as coaches look to underclassmen seeking better results the following year.

In a black and white world, November should tell us who the best teams are and who are not, yet sports bettors understand all too well about that?s not how it works. In 2007, LSU won a national championship, covering one game from the end of September until defeating Ohio State 38-24 as four-point favorites in the BCS title tilt. In November, if it?s possible, it will likely happen.

Here is the complete list of teams that have good or bad track records is the sports craziest month.

*The Baylor Bears have really missed QB Robert Griffin. The offense has stagnated and the defense is not strong enough to compensate. The Bears are 0-20 and 6-13-1 ATS on the November road and have dates at Missouri and at Texas A&M.

*Hard to surmise presently if coach Dan Hawkins is returning, however Colorado backers would just fine if he could carry on lasting tradition of fielding decent football squad. The Buffalos are 24-12 ATS this month and will have say in who wins the Big 12 North.

*If Houston survives trips to Tulsa and Central Florida, they are still in line to win the C-USA West. Their last two games are at home against Memphis and Rice; however this has been a squad that doesn?t always have the binoculars in focus, telling the tale of 7-12 ATS home record late in the season.

*Iowa State has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 football title of any kind. In 2004, they lost to Missouri in overtime 17-14, to see another chance dissipate. They are competing this season for the North Division crown and it could come down to road game at Missouri. A 1-10 and 3-8 ATS road mark is not encouraging.

*Kansas won at Oklahoma State in November of 2007 on the way to Orange Bowl berth. Beyond that triumph, the history is gloomier than the Kansas weather this time of year with 2-31SU and 9-24 ATS record on the road or at neutral sites.

*Kent State?s has enjoyed one winning season in the last two decades (2001 at 6-5). The Golden Flashes could have another if they don?t fall prey to the ghosts of November?s past, which has spooked them, having 5-23 and 9-19 ATS mark.

*Mentioned LSU earlier, is any other top line program have a more sickly spread record at home than the Tigers at 5-20 ATS? The answer is no, with Louisiana Tech and Arkansas paying a visit to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

*Dating back to the days of Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich, Marshall always had a severe home field edge. Those days have passed, yet the Thundering Herd still has bettors running to the cash out window with 17-4 and 14-5 ATS record in November home games.

*This will not go down as one of Memphis University?s better football teams. They still have three enormously difficult road clashes at Tennessee, Houston and Tulsa. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be catching a truckload of points and are 10-1 ATS away from Memphis this month, on 6-0 spread run.

*Middle Tennessee State had freakish schedule this season. The first four of five bouts were on the road, followed by next five of six at Murfreesboro. Their last contest of the year is at UL-Monroe and they are 3-7 ATS in the 11th month of the year dressed as visitors.

*Nebraska?s fine season has recently taken a wrong turn. Coach Bo Pelini is attempting to get the Cornhuskers back on the track, but with 6-10-1 ATS road record since 1999. With trips to Kansas and Colorado, it might not happen.

*Coach Tom O?Brien has a history of his teams being a finisher, be it at Boston College or now at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have three home games and road excursion to Virginia Tech and they are 10-4 ATS on the November road.

*Ohio University is the ninth oldest public university in the United States and Fox News CEO Roger Ailes majored in radio and television while attending the Athens school of hirer learning. The Bobcats are also becoming known for 10-5 spread figure at Peden Stadium and will have two chances to improve that number.

*Oklahoma State has multiple personalities this month. At Stillwater, the Cowboys are a handful, sporting a 12-4-2 ATS record. When wearing the road whites, not nearly as potent or intimidating, covering five times in last 19 tries (5-13-1). Two home games and two road tilts await Okie State.

*It?s not the good old days at Texas A&M, seeking magic formula that made them regular participant in the best of bowls in the 1990?s. Besides the cool tradition of the 12th man in Aggie-land, Texas A&M is 11-4-2 ATS at Kyle Field to close the season. Baylor and huge rival Texas will both pay a visit.

*With the oddsmakers attempting to make it harder and harder to bet on USC this time of year, the Trojans still persevere and are 20-5 ATS. Of note, since moving last game to December, Pete Carroll?s team has failed to cover the last three played.

*You know the Allstate commercial, with the butler ready to serve the two guys tailgating and Bergwood says he doesn?t want the sauce with the steak tartar? After the butler rolls his eyes, the other guy says sarcastically ?Really?? That?s the same reaction people have when they learn Utah State is 7-1 ATS in November the last two seasons.

*As it turns out, Virginia and Oklahoma State have a lot in common. The Cavaliers are miserable 7-19 ATS as visitors; however at Scott Stadium they are 12-6 ATS. Of the four remaining games, they are evenly split home and away for Virginia in 2009.

*Virginia Tech is very solid anywhere under coach Frank Beamer. They are 18-9-1 in Blacksburg in the final month of the season and they will have N.C. State paying a visit in the final home game for outgoing senior class.

*Wake Forest used to known as the Tigers, but in the 1920?s, the football team was known for "devilish play and fighting spirit." and the name stuck with Deacons added. Right now the Demon Deacons are devilish to wagering accounts with 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS chronicled account as road team.

*Washington State actually went to the Rose Bowl in 2003, but the Cougars have turned into playful cats with a 4-12 ATS mark the last several seasons. Games at Arizona and Washington and home contests with UCLA and Oregon State don?t figure to change this unbecoming trend.

In the last four years, the Wyoming Cowboys have been knocked off their saddle with 3-11 and 2-12 ATS record in November. With home games against BYU and TCU and at improving San Diego State, plus Colorado State, hope doesn?t spring eternal.

 

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News and Notes - Week 10

News and Notes - Week 10

News and Notes - Week 10
November 3, 2009
By Phil Steele

Week 10

NEWS AND NOTES

The Buckeyes allowed just 2 FD's and 62 yards. OSU had a 305-41 yd edge at the half but missed a pair of 52 yard FG's. In the 2H Pettrey suffered a knee inj and backup Barclay missed 2 of 3 FG's (47 & 36). They also settled for a 29 yd FG and only led 31-0 but recovered a fmbl in the EZ for a TD and got a 53 yd TD run by Herron to make it 45-0 at the end of 3Q's. QB Pryor sat out the entire 2H in a 45-0 win...
Florida St/NC State was a shootout. At the half, NCSt had a 316-294 yd edge yet surprisingly the score was just 21-21. The teams continued to trade scores in the 2H with NCSt taking their first lead 42-38 with 3:50 left, but FSU got a TD with 1:36 left and at midfield NCSt was int'd in the EZ on the last play of the game...

Missouri dominated the 1H vs Colorado. In fact, they had a 306-55 yd edge and led 33-3. CU took its opening 3Q poss for a TD then got a 78 yd IR TD to pull within 2 scores. Unfortunately, CU on 4th & 1 at the MO13 early 4Q was stopped and on their next drive the Buffs were int'd at the 24 and could not get any closer...



Clemson only led Coastal Carolina 21-0 at the half and played mostly backups in the 2H but a 28 point 3Q put them up 49-0. CC drove 64/15pl getting a 31 yd FG with 4:02 left to avoid the shutout...

Navy/Temple had a lot of twists and turns. Bernard Pierce rushed for 267 yds for TU as the Owls won their 6th straight game, their longest streak since 1974 and they clinched bowl eligibility for the first time since 1979. They also stopped Navy's 5 game win streak. Navy settled for a 30 yd FG and was SOD at the TU32 and TU got a 68 yd TD run 2pl later to lead 7-3. Navy blk'd a punt for a TD to lead 10-7 (2:24 2Q) but TU ret'd the KO 100 yds for a TD, 14-10. TU was up 17-10 when they fmbl'd the punt at their own 29 setting up a Navy TD then after an int, Navy went 51/12pl for a TD to lead 24-17 early 4Q. TU settled for a 21 yd FG with 12:02 left but was int'd at the Navy 22 with 6:37 left. After forcing a Navy punt, they got a 41 yd TD run by Pierce with 2:47 left to pull out the win...

UConn QB Cody Endres went down with just over 6:00 left 1Q but Zach Frazer hit 21-46-333 yds and 3 TD's. Frazer lost his job to Endres after he suffered a knee injury in the 2nd game of the season. CU also lost senior CB Robert McClain late 2Q and had 3 rFr in the secondary. It looked like it was going to be another tough loss for Rutgers as they led almost the entire game vs Connecticut. They ret'd the opening KO 98 yds for a TD and they were up 21-10 at the half allowing a UC 100 yd KR. They still led in the 4Q by that margin when UC got a TD with 10:19 left and then UC took over with 3:49 left and converted on 4th & 1, 3rd & 10, 4th & 5 and on 4th & 2 got a TD with :38 left to apparently pull out the win, 24-21. RU, however, threw a short pass to Brown which he took 81 yds for a TD on the next play and RU got the 28-24 win...

Nebraska appeared in control vs Baylor as they led 20-0 with 9:29 left in the half. The Huskers gave up a 41 yd FG early 3Q and then a 45 yd IR TD put BU under the spread, 20-10 (3:27 3Q). NU fmbl'd at the BU28 and BU went 65/9pl but had a 24 yd FG bounce off the upright (6:28) then went 58/8pl and fired incomplete on 4th & 10 from the NU20...

Kent St had a 287-137 yd edge at the half vs W Michigan but only led 13-7 after settling for a couple of short FG's. For the game, KSU had a 477-293 yd edge and ended the game at the WM9 yd line in a 26-14 win...

Central Michigan at one point vs Boston College had a 14-2 FD edge but only led 3-0. BC drove 80/11pl and got a TD with :50 left in the half to take the 7-3 lead and the momentum. BC opened the 3Q with the wind at their back and went 74/7pl, 72/7pl, 55/8pl for 2 TD's and an 18 yd FG and led 24-3. CM pulled QB LeFevour for the 4Q...

Utah St led Fresno St 27-17 at the half with a 354-245 yd edge. USt still led 27-24 when they missed a 21 yd FG with 14:12 left. Each team punted twice and FSU took over at their 22 with 5:59 left. They got a 46 yd run to the 25 and a 10 yd TD run by Mathews with 4:53 left. USt punted with 3:13 left and FSU was pinned at their 6 but got a FD on 2nd & 5 and then on 3rd & 11 got an 11 yd run to the 32 and took a knee...

Michigan appeared in control vs Illinois. They had a 238-94 yd edge at the half but only led 13-7 as they settled for 2 FG's. They opened the 3Q with a 79/7pl drive down to the 1. After being stuffed on 3 straight run plays they opted to go for it on 4th & gl at the 1. The game changed dramatically as they were SOD and 6pl later UI got a 70 yd TD run. UI then went 79/4pl and 45/6pl for TD's and a stunning 28-13 lead. UM fmbl'd at the UI21 (14:47 4Q), was SOD at the UI11 and the UI10 (8:20 4Q) and fmbl'd at UI's 15 (3:44 4Q). UI on 3rd & 9 not only got the FD but got a 79 yd TD run by Ford with 1:45 left...

Duke won their 3rd ACC game in a row for the first time since 1989. Duke had a 178-81 yd edge at the half but only led 9-3. They actually trailed 17-12 after Virginia got a TD with 11:17 left. Duke was int'd in the EZ with 8:01 left but got a 42 yd TD pass with 3:45 left to take the lead. They then got a 7 yd FR TD and after UVA was SOD at their 29 Duke added a 42 yd FG with 1:05 left for some margin, 28-17. Duke did have a 424-196 yd edge...

Arkansas led E Michigan with a commanding 391-39 yd edge at the half. EM began to move against their backups in the 2H and even got a 10 yd TD run with 2:14 left in the game...

N Texas/WKU was a wild one and WKU had the upper hand most of the game. The Hilltoppers got a TD with :47 left 1H to lead 35-21 but gave up a TD with :06 left. They were still up 49-42 late 3Q. NT got a 71 yd TD run then after an int scored a TD. WKU was SOD at their own 46 and NT got a 29 yd FG. After pinning WKU at the 6 on the KO, WKU was tkl'd for a safety. NT took the free kick and went 51 yds for another TD to break it open for a 19 pt win. WKU was SOD at its own 32 and NT took a knee at WKU's 3 yd line at the end...

California jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Arizona St and in the 1H had a 15-7 FD edge. ASU got an 80/1pl TD pass to tie it at 14 and only trailed by 3 at the half. Trailing 20-14, ASU got a TD with 10:21 left and Cal went on a 47/9pl drive but missed a 39 yd FG with 5:46 left. ASU came up inches short and punted with 3:16 left and Cal would get a 24 yd FG with :21 left to pull out the win. Cal had missed 2 FG's so they tried for the EZ on the play prior and it was almost int'd...

There were some interesting happenings in the Toledo game. UT's top 2 QB's Opelt and Dantin were both questionable and Opelt QB'd the 1Q but left with an inj with the game tied at 7. UT trailed 24-7 at the half. One of Miami's TD's was on a 20 yd IR TD. Opelt came back in for the 2H and they pulled within 31-24. He was inj'd again and this time they turned to 3rd stringer Pettee. UT took over at their own 1 with 7:52 left and drove 99/6pl and got the apparent tying TD with 1:02 left but replay overturned the TD saying the ball was fmbl'd into the pylon and ruled a TB and MU ran out the clock...

Notre Dame was coming off a school record 6 consecutive games decided by 7 or less pts. A look at the stats makes you wonder how ND only won by 26 points as they had 32-12 FD and 592-206 yd edges. Of Washington St's 209 yards, 95 came when they were trailing 40-7 in the final 8:22...

Oklahoma St had a 275-273 yd edge but was done in by 5 TO's. Each team drove for a TD in the final 2:18 of the 1H but there were 3 key int's which turned this into a route. Trailing 10-0, OSU was driving to pull within a score when they were int'd and ret'd 77 yds for a TD with 6:21 left in the half which made it 17-0. In the 2H UT got a 31 yd IR TD to make it 34-7 and then got another 31 yd IR to the OSU15 setting up a 15/3pl drive for a TD, 41-7. OSU had a 28 yd TD drive after a 15 yd PR so despite neither team topping 275 yds offense, there were 55 pts on the board and Texas was not as dominant as the 41-14 final would indicate...

Georgia was coming off a bye and came out in black pants and black helmets but UF opened with an 80/6pl drive for a TD and 92/11pl drive for TD to lead 14-0. They were up 24-10 at half and 31-10 early 3Q. UF led 34-17 when UGA brought in backup QB Gray and on 2nd & 15 from his own 3 was int'd and Spikes walked into the EZ for a TD with 6:24 left. UF's backups moved 73/8pl on the final drive taking a knee at the UGA20 up 41-17.

MISLEADING FINAL SCORES

UTEP in the 1H had 19-9 FD and 315-228 yd edges but trailed UAB 28-17. The key play happened when UTEP had a 3rd & gl from the 4 and Vittatoe was int'd & ret'd 99 yds for a TD. UTEP went on a 60/14pl drive and settled for a 28 yd FG and after UAB got a 43 yd IR to the UTEP36 on 3rd & 8 they got a 34 yd TD pass. For the game UTEP had 35-18 FD and 585-375 yd edges and once again, after gaining control of the CUSA West, they lost as a favorite...

Utah had a 12 pt win over Wyoming but actually trailed most of the game. Utah RB Eddie Wide had his fifth straight 100 yd rushing game but the Utes trailed 10-3 at the half when they took the RS off of true frosh QB Jordan Wynn. He guided the team 61/12pl and 50/10pl for a pair of FG's on his first 2 poss to pull Utah within 10-9. His 23 yd TD pass with 7:35 left gave them their first lead, 16-10. WY was int'd at the Utah 40 then went for it on 4th & 6 with 1:53 left at their own 20 and was sk'd back at their 9 and Utah got the TD 2pl later for the misleading final of 22-10.

CLOSER THAN THE FINAL

The Syracuse/Cincinnati game was closer than the final. UC got an 81 yd pass on 3rd & 11 for the first score. SU went on a 75 yd TD drive, 7-7. UC faked a FG and got a 16 yd TD pass, 14-7. SU had a 1st & gl at the 8 in the 2Q but was int'd in the EZ and SU had a 1st & gl at the 7 but fmbl'd in the 3Q. UC led 21-7 and got the spread covering TD with 9:53 left capping a 48 yd drive and SU punted on their final 2 poss. Tony Pike missed the game with inj and Collaros got his 2nd straight start...

The Iowa St/Texas A&M game was closer than the score. In the 1H A&M only had a 207-188 yd edge but led 21-3 as ISU punted from the 37 of A&M, was int'd at the 34, was SOD on 4th & 1 at the A&M23 and settled for a 29 yd FG. A&M fmbl'd the opening 3Q KO but ISU was int'd in the EZ. A&M took over with 8:28 left and would go 56/13pl getting a 2nd & gl at the 1 and taking a knee 3 straight times giving the ball back to ISU with :26 left.

FRONTDOOR/BACKDOOR COVERS

It was a remarkable ATS win for Iowa, let alone an 18 point win as a 17.5 pt favorite. Indiana led 14-0 as they took advantage of 5 Stanzi int's but they were only +3 in TO's for the game. It was 21-7 Indy at the half. Iowa got back in the game in remarkable fashion. Indy had a 3rd & gl at the 2 after an int and Chappell's pass was deflected 4 different times, int'd by Sash who ret'd 86 yds for a TD and Iowa was back in it at 21-14. Indy got a 48 yd pass to the 15 then an 11 yd TD pass put them up 28-14. Amazingly the replay officials took the TD off the board on a very questionable ruling and Indy missed a 28 yd FG and got no points. After an int Indy got a 37 yd FG, 24-14. Iowa then got a 93 yd TD pass on the first play with 13:03 left to pull within 3 then got a 66 yd TD pass on their next offensive play with 11:38 left to take a 28-24 lead. After an Indy int, Iowa drove 45 yds for a TD to put it away 35-24 with 7:34 left. Iowa took over at their own 34 with 5:09 left and got 2 FD's. Had they picked up a FD on 3rd & 2 they would have gone to a knee but Wager ripped off a 27 yd TD run to get them ahead of the spread and the frontdoor cover with 1:12 left, 42-24...

Northern Illinois dominated the 1H. They had a 53/15pl drive result in a blk'd 37 yd FG, went 46/8pl but dropped a TD pass and settled for a 22 yd FG then went 45/10pl for a 37 yd FG yet only led 6-0. Akron did miss a 38 yd FG. UA, on an 80 yd TD pass, led 10-6 after 3Q's. NI got a 28 yd TD run with 13:35 left then after an 18 yd punt drove 53/7pl for a TD with 7:59 left to lead 20-10. UA got down to the NI13 yd line but fmbl'd. After each team punted, UA only got off a 24 yd punt with 3:02 left and NI, after getting a FD on 3rd & gl from the 7, got a TD run with :46 left for the frontdoor cover...

Houston had a 39-28 FD edge vs Southern Miss. UH led 30-22 at the half and increased the margin to 40-22 with 12:25 left but SM got 3 TD's while UH settled for a 23 yd FG and fmbl'd at the SM22. SM's 3rd TD came with :57 left to tie it at 43. UH got 1 FD then on 3rd & 10 an 18 yd pass to the SM28. They were in position for the game winning FG but got a 28 yd TD pass with :21 left to get ahead of the spread...

TCU did have a 339-101 yd edge at the half but only led 20-0. TCU was SOD at the UNLV40 (4:59 3Q) and led 27-0. LV fmbl'd the punt at their own 37 and TCU got a TD 5pl later early 4Q, 34-0. After 3 punts, TCU took over at their 39 with 6:32 left and went 61/8pl and on 3rd & 7 got a 10 yd TD pass for the frontdoor cover.

SPECIAL TEAMS CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE

In the 1H, Florida Atl had a 260-73 yd edge but only led 17-13 as Middle Tennessee blk'd a punt and ret'd it 29 yds for a TD, tackled the P for a 9 yd loss setting up a FG without a FD and FAU also had a 34 yd FG blk'd. In the 2H, FAU had a 3 yd punt but still led 20-13 and for the game FAU had 28-11 FD and 478-329 yd edges. MT tied it early 4Q. FAU passed up a 43 yd FG with 6:19 left and fired incomplete on 4th & 3 and Dwight Dasher got a 74 yd run on a QB draw for a TD to give MT their first lead with 5:31 left. QB Rusty Smith was inj'd and backup Vancamp led them to the MT27 and on 4th & 7 a FD pass to the 8 was overturned and MT took a knee.

 

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Beware of Let Downs - Week 10

Beware of Let Downs - Week 10

Beware of Let Downs - Week 10
November 2, 2009


The Hokies losing the final seconds to North Carolina on Oct. 29 was just a precursor to what we were going to see as Week 9 of the college football season played out. Iowa had to make another fourth quarter comeback to upend the Hoosiers. Then we saw the Trojans publicly relinquish their stranglehold on the Pac-10 with a loss at Oregon.

Those three contests are going to help us find a few teams that will no doubt be in a funk from bad outings.

Hokie Hokie low?

Virginia Tech appeared to be at least taking its chances in overtime with the Tar Heels when they got the ball with just three minutes left in regulation of a 17-17 ballgame. But Ryan Williams? fumble on the Hokies? 30-yard line took the wind out of their sails as they fell 20-17 to North Carolina.

Now the Hokies are hoping to bounce back this week against East Carolina in another Thursday battle. The sportsbooks aren?t really worried about Frank Beamer?s crew as they?ve made them nine-point road favorites.

What keeps me from looking at Virginia Tech as a reasonable play here is the last two drives the Tar Heels had to win the game. The Hokies allowed UNC to march 78 yards down the field to tie the score at 17, stopping just two of the five third-down conversions. Then the Heels drove all the way down to Virginia Tech?s four-yard line for the game winner.


That kind of defensive play will not help out too much when they play the Pirates, who are actually averaging more yards per game on the ground (149.4) than what the Tar Heels have this year (135.4).

Something else to consider is that ECU has covered the spread the last two times as a nine-point and 27 ?-point underdog. Also, the Pirates have gone 3-1 run against the spread in their last four matches. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is on a 1-3 ATS skid.

It?s hard to be a Hoosier?

The Hoosiers looked like they were going to pull off a major upset last week when they took a 24-14 lead into the fourth quarter against Iowa. Yet Indiana found a way to let the Hawkeyes tally four touchdowns in the final quarter to walk away with a 42-24 win as 17 ?-point home faves.

Indiana finds itself in the same spot as they did after falling to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor back in late September ? double-digit pup to a Big Ten foe. This time the Hoosiers are 11-point home ?dogs to Wisconsin.

There is reason to see the Badgers covering that spread with ease in Bloomington. Scott Tolzien is one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the country with a 130.6 rating. He?s going to be facing off against an Indiana pass defense that ranks 107th nationally, allowing 256.7 YPG through the air.

Wisky has fared well at the betting shops in this series recently, covering the number in the last three meetings and five of the previous eight.

?V? is for ?Vanished??

It took seven years, but Pete Carroll?s grip on the Pac-10 has finally loosened after Southern California?s 47-20 defeat in Eugene to the Ducks. The Trojans allowed 613 yards to Oregon in what was easily the worst loss of Carroll?s tenure in Los Angeles.

The Trojans may feel shell shocked after last Saturday?s result, but the sportsbooks are still listing them as 14-point home favorites against Arizona State.

This might be sound like a stretch given how the Sun Devils have lost two straight games in what has been a mediocre season for Dennis Erickson?s program. However, ASU is coming off of a tough 23-21 loss to the Golden Bears last Saturday.

Arizona State didn?t have much success on the ground last week with just 82 yards rushing against the Golden Bears. They did, however, put up 247 yards via the air. That might prove fruitful for the Devs here since USC gave up 222 passing yards to the Ducks. Not big numbers, but this defense was exposed as not being as good as we thought after getting taken down by a real offense.

I?ll be the first to say that the Sun Devils aren?t the best attacking unit out there, but they do average 354.7 YPG this season. Plus, they?ve gone 3-1 ATS over the last four games with Southern Cal. And if that isn?t enough, the Men of Troy are 3-3 SU, but 1-5 ATS when listed as home favorites following a SU loss as a road faves.

 

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Grading the First-Year Coaches

Grading the First-Year Coaches

Grading the First-Year Coaches
November 3, 2009
By Bruce Marshall
The Gold Sheet

With the college football season heading into the far turn, we've had enough time to measure all of the first-year coaches to render an early verdict on their performance. So, following is a quick review and "letter grade" for the 21 coaches in their first year on the job. Straight-up and pointspread records are included thru October 31.

Rich Ellerson, Army (SUR 3-5; PSR 2-6)...No one was expecting too much at West Point, and with the bar set so low, Ellerson at least hasn't disappointed yet. His game-management skills have impressed onlookers, although he has had little success in jazzing up the Black Knight version of the option, which is even more one-dimensional than before and not resembling the more-creative option Ellerson most recently ran at Cal Poly. Grade: C+

Gene Chizik, Auburn (6-3, 5-4)...Although some of the early hoopla has died out on the Plains, Chizik still earns favorable marks for pumping some life into what had been a moribund Tiger offense, thanks largely to the shrewd hiring of o.c. Gus Malzahn, who recently coordinated some potent Tulsa attacks. Although Auburn's offense ran into a rough patch against some hungry SEC defenses in recent weeks, Saturday's bounce-back win over Ole Miss got the Tigers bowl eligible. Auburn backers who questioned this hiring are now mostly on board. Grade: B


Stan Parrish, Ball State (1-8, 4-4)... At least Parrish broke his own 35-game losing streak (which extended back to his days as Kansas State's HC in the late '80s). But after the departure of HC Brady Hoke and QB Nate Davis, the Cardinals have lost all of the momentum they had built up the last couple of years. Grade: D

Frank Spaziani, Boston College (6-3, 6-2)... This hire was not met with universal approval in the BC community but has turned out to be a pleasant surprise. Spaziani has kept the Eagles relevant in the ACC and uncovered an unlikely savior at QB in 25-year-old former minor league baseball player Dave Shinskie. Grade: A-

Dave Clawson, Bowling Green (3-5, 3-5)... After a rousing opening win over Troy and an impressive near-miss at Mizzou, Clawson, who failed as Tennessee's o.c. last season after a successful run as HC at Richmond, seemed to be on the right track. The Falcs, however, have floundered since. Grade: C-

Ron English, Eastern Michigan (0-8, 2-5-1)... This wasn't the sort of job English expected to get when riding high as Michigan's d.c. a few years ago. As of yet he has failed to provide a spark to the dormant Eagle program that is having trouble gaining any visibility in Ypsilanti. Injuries have not helped, although someone should have reminded English what a coaching graveyard the EMU job has been for decades. But does anyone notice? Grade: D

Paul Rhoads, Iowa State (5-4, 5-3)... Big XII sources suspected that Rhoads didn't inherit a bare cupboard in Ames, but even so the Cyclones have been a pleasant surprise. One more win will make them one of the most-unlikely bowl-eligible teams in the land. Grade: A-

Bill Snyder, Kansas State (5-4, 4-3)... Not sure we should include Snyder in this list, as he returns to the KSU job he held from 1989-2005. Already, however, he has pumped life into a program that had sagged under successor/predecessor Ron Prince, and is surprisingly in the hunt for the Big XII North title. Grade: B+

Mike Haywood, Miami-Ohio (1-8, 4-5)... MAC sources warned that Haywood inherited a bare cupboard from predecessor Shane Montgomery, but after eight losses the RedHawks are finally in the win column and might have discovered their QB of the future in RS frosh Zac Dysert. Miami-O could be on the upswing, if only slightly. Grade: C

Dan Mullen, Mississippi State (4-5, 5-3)... Making the most out of one of the SEC's most-thankless assignments, Mullen has immediately upgraded the Maroon, installing a more-modern spread offense similar in design to the one he used at Florida as Urban Meyer's o.c. Impressive debut. Grade: A

Mike Locksley, New Mexico (0-8, 2-6)... So far, the worst of the new hires, from the underhanded manner in which administrators forced out predecessor Rocky Long to the selection of Locksley, whose off-field entanglements have provided as much of an embarrassment to the school as the Lobos' 0-8 record. Grade: F

DeWayne Walker, New Mexico State (3-6, 2-5-1)...Squeezing three wins out of a team with no QB and an offense that appears to have been resurrected from the 1940s is an accomplishment that Vince Lombardi might have had trouble equaling. The question is if Walker can win enough in Las Cruces to escape before his career is irreparably damaged by this thankless assignment. Grade: B

Chip Kelly, Oregon (7-1, 6-2)...What a difference a month can make! After many wondered if Kelly was the right man for the job after the Ducks' slow start, he's being mentioned as a Coach of Year candidate after Oregon's 7-game win streak and 47-20 destruction of Southern Cal last weekend. Grade: A

Danny Hope, Purdue (3-6, 4-5)... Consensus around the Big Ten was that Hope inherited a Boilermaker program that had regressed in recent years under Joe Tiller. Purdue has played in some bad luck and could be above .500 with a few breaks, but has been maddeningly inconsistent along the way. Jury still out in West Lafayette. Grade: C

Brady Hoke, San Diego State (4-4, 3-2-2)... The upgrade over predecessor Chuck Long is unmistakable, as Hoke could get the Aztecs to a bowl for the first time in 11 years by splitting their last four games. So far, so good. Although no one seems to be noticing in San Diego. Grade: A-

Doug Marrone, Syracuse (3-5, 4-3)... Gets generally better marks than predecessor Greg Robinson for organization and game management, so Orange fans are encouraged. On-field product, however, remains average at best. Grade: C

Lane Kiffin, Tennessee (4-4, 5-3)... Kiffin has made no friends around the SEC but might have been just the medicine the doctor ordered for a Vol program that had gone a bit stale under predecessor Phil Fulmer. Kiffin's best move might have been convincing his dad Monte to join him in Knoxville as the defensive coordinator. UT seems to be on the upswing. Grade: B+

Tim Beckman, Toledo (4-5, 4-5)... MAC observers might have been expecting a bit more from Beckman, who inherited 18 starters, including productive QB Aaron Opelt, from predecessor Tom Amstutz. The Rockets, however, have exhibited bipolar tendencies with a series of inconsistent performances, and the defense (ranked 106th) has remained a disaster. Jury still out at Glass Bowl. Grade: C

Gary Andersen, Utah State (2-6, 6-1)... Andersen's impact has yet to be reflected in wins, although a series of competitive efforts have marked the Utags as one of the best pointspread values in the country. WAC observers are impressed with the organization and game-management skills exhibited by Andersen, whom many can envision escaping Logan to a higher-profile job in the near future with a few more wins. Grade: B+

Steve Sarkisian, Washington (3-5, 4-4)... While Pac-10 observers have given "Sark" good marks in his debut, many view the Huskies' improvement as a final indictment on predecessor Ty Willingham, who handed over an 0-12 team. Sark has really earned kudos from scouts who marvel at his work with QB Jake Locker, "coached up" to the point where he could be the top player picked if he comes out for next April's NFL Draft. Grade: A-

Dave Christensen, Wyoming (4-4, 6-1)... Mountain West onlookers continue to rave about the work Christensen (recently Missouri's o.c.) has done with a Wyo program that had jumped the rails for predecessor Joe Glenn. The Cowboys have only once allowed more than 28 points, staying competitive while Christensen's spread offense endures growing pains with a true frosh QB, Austyn Carta-Samuels. The only resemblance with prior Wyo teams is the uniform, and Christensen appears as if he could soon parlay success in Laramie to a juicier assignment. Grade: A

 

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Games to Watch - Week 10

Games to Watch - Week 10

Games to Watch - Week 10
November 5, 2009

Week 10




Saturday - Ohio State at Penn State (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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The Big 10 heats up the gridiron this weekend when No. 15 Ohio State (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) meets No. 11 Penn State (8-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) in what looks like a battle for second place in the conference. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions both trail Iowa by one game in the standings and the Hawkeyes own the head-to-head tiebreaker over PSU. If Ohio State earns a win in this game, then it could win the Big Ten by beating Iowa next Saturday at home and then at Michigan. Penn State needs to win its final three home games and hope Iowa trips up twice in its final three games. Back to this week's matchup, on paper it looks like another classic slugfest. Penn State leads the conference in scoring defense (9.3 PPG) and total defense (254 YPG). Close behind is Ohio State (11.7 PPG, 260 YPG), who is ranked second in both categories. Offensively, Penn State relies on QB Daryll Clark (23 TDs) and Ohio State has put enormous pressure on sophomore Terrelle Pryor (19 TDs) behind center. Both have shown flashes of brilliance yet they're both suspect to making crucial mistakes too, which has been the key in recent meetings. Last year, Pryor fumbled in the fourth quarter which set up Penn State's game-winning touchdown in a 13-6 win in Columbus. A lot of headlines have been circulating around Pryor this weekend since he chose Ohio State over PSU and Michigan, which should add extra fuel to the fans at Beaver Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The last four meetings between the two schools have been split, with each team stealing at least one victory on the road during this span. Penn State has won both of its victories by seven points, while Ohio State has posted 22 and 20-point wins. Even though Jim Tressel has taken heat over the past couple seasons, deservingly so, gamblers have to be pleased with his report card (7-2 ATS) this year. And they're covering healthy numbers too. Penn State started the year with four straight losses against the spread but it has rebounded with four straight covers, including three on the road. We mention the road stat because Joe Paterno and the Lions are 5-1 SU and 1-4 ATS at home this year, with the lone loss coming to Iowa (21-10) on Sept. 26. Ohio State has posted a 2-1 both SU and ATS mark on the road, which includes the 26-18 setback to Purdue on Oct. 17. Great defenses usually post low numbers which in turn helps 'under' players and that's been the case with this pair. Ohio State (7-2) and Penn State (6-2) have both been serious 'under' teams this season. Three of the last four encounters between the two have seen the 'under' cash tickets. The total for this week opened at 39 1/2. One key injury that could make a difference in this tight contest is Ohio State kicker Aaron Pettrey (knee), who was lost for the season. According to extended forecasts, this game will be played in the fifties and with clear skies too.




Saturday - LSU at Alabama (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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All eyes will be on Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa this weekend when ninth-ranked LSU (7-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) faces third-ranked Alabama (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS). Not only is the SEC West on the line, but possible national title implications as well. For the past two years, this game has been dubbed the "Saban Bowl" and both contests were thrillers. In Nick Saban's first year at Alabama, LSU captured a 41-34 in Baton Rouge against its former coach by scoring two touchdowns in the final three minutes. Last year, Saban avenged that loss by nipping the Tigers 27-21 at home in overtime. Most experts don't believe we'll see a combined 75 or 48 points in this week's showdown, because both Alabama (11.4 PPG) and LSU (12.1 PPG) own tremendous defensive units. After losing their only game of the season to Florida (13-3) on Oct. 10, the Tigers have bounced back with dominating wins over Auburn (31-10) and Tulane (45-0). What's even better for LSU is that the offense has found a nice balance behind QB Jordan Jefferson (12 TDs) and RB Charles Scott. Plus, receivers Terrance Tolliver (38 catches, 501 yards) and Brandon LaFell (8 TDs) are a tough match for any secondary. The Alabama offense doesn't have the same amount of playmakers but it does have a workhorse in RB Mark Ingram (1,004 yards, 8 TDs). What's amazing about Ingram is that he's posting such impressive numbers without a sound passing game (192 YPG) and Alabama's kicker Leigh Tiffin (10.5 PPG) leads the SEC in scoring, which is not something to boast about. Is an upset likely to happen here? It certainly wouldn't be a surprise, considering three of the last four meetings between the two teams have watched the visitor leave with their arms up. Looking at the numbers closer, gamblers can't ignore the fact that Alabama struggled and failed to cover double-digit numbers against South Carolina (20-6) and Tennessee (12-10). The victory over the Volunteers could be dubbed "lucky" but the Tide played to lose at the end and let them back into the game. Prior to that pair of ATS setbacks, the team was 5-1 ATS and more importantly, 2-0 ATS as single-digit favorites. LSU is on a little bit of a roll but it's been shaky on the road. Les Miles failed to cover in a win against Washington (31-23) in Week 1, plus they almost lost at Mississippi State (30-26). It should be noted that they were double-digit favorites in this those games and they did win outright at Georgia (20-13) on Oct. 3 in the only spot as a 'dog. The 'over/under' has been hovering at 38 points and LSU has watched the 'under' go 6-2 this year. The 'over' has cashed in the last three head-to-head battles.



Other Games to Watch
Saturday - Oregon at Stanford (FSN, 3:30 p.m.)

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The Ducks have been on a serious roll and last week's 47-20 blowout win over USC was a statement win. Will Oregon get caught in a letdown spot against an underrated Stanford team on the road? Well, the Ducks have won seven in a row against the Cardinal and have covered six of those games to boot. Jim Harbaugh's team has gone 4-0 both SU and ATS at home this year.





Saturday - Duke at North Carolina (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

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The "Battle for Tobacco Road" usually doesn't get noticed until basketball season but the winner of this week's Duke-UNC will become bowl eligible. The Blue Devils haven't been to a bowl game since 1994 but head coach David Cutcliffe has the school pointed in the right direction. UNC has won 18 of the last 19 but the last four have been decided by 8, 6, 1 and 3. Catching 10 looks doable, especially with QB Thaddeus Lewis running the Duke ship.



Saturday - Houston at Tulsa (CSTV, 7:30 p.m.)

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Houston is four wins away from finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record. The Cougars last test could be this weekend against a Tulsa team that has dropped three in a row. Last year, Case Keenum and company dropped a 70-spot on the Golden Hurricane in a blowout victory. Will the roles get reversed this season? The number on this game looks real tricky.



Saturday - Florida State at Clemson (ESPN, 7:45 p.m.)

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A lot would have to happen but Florida State still has a chance to reach the ACC Championship. The Seminoles first need to beat Clemson this weekend, which isn't easy since they've dropped three of the last four to the Tigers. Dabo Sweeny's team controls its own destiny for a berth to the title game and it should be noted that Clemson's three losses came by a combined 10 points. And, two of the setbacks came to TCU and Georgia Tech, both highly ranked teams. The Tigers are laying more than eight points for this one, which is the highest number in the last five.

 

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Football lines that make you go hmmm...



College football can be a difficult sport to handicap. No matter how many times I?ve tried I?ve never come up with my own computer formulas that are as good as Jeff Sagarin?s Predictor number. So that?s usually my starting point and then I adjust for injuries, intangibles and other things.

You?ll find that a fair number of the books that put out early lines are also in love with Sagarin. They won?t admit it; usually it?s sort of a shameful, steamy, parking-lot hook-up kind of romance.

Each week I?ll take a look a few college lines that seem a little funky and deviate some from Sagarin?s system.

Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal

Opened: +5

Wednesday night line: +6.5

Sagarin says Oregon should be an 11-point favorite on a neutral field, so the implication is Oregon -7.5 or -8 away. Given Oregon?s dismantling of USC, I?m surprised this number isn?t closer to 10. It should certainly get to 7 and if anybody was hanging -6, it?d be worth playing for middling reasons alone.

Cardinal backers will point to Stanford?s nice run against the spread in-conference and to Oregon?s loss at Boise State. The only other argument that could keep this below 7 is Stanford?s home-road dichotomy.

The Cardinal are 4-0 at home this season, winning by large margins (8, 15, 20 and 25 points) each time. They haven?t played nearly as well away from home sporting a 1-3 record with losses against Arizona, Oregon State and Wake Forest.

I think it?s safe to say we were all expecting a line closer to Oregon -7, or pretty much exactly where it?s been bet up to now.

Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Opened: +3

Wednesday night line: -1

Sagarin says Houston -9 on neutral field, so 5.5 or 6 visiting Tulsa. This line is really low, especially when looking at yardstick of recent common opponent:

Tulsa 13 vs. SMU 27 October 31

Houston 38 vs. SMU 15 October 24

Only thing favoring Tulsa is other common opponent, UTEP. Both travelled to El Paso, Tulsa losing by four and Houston by 17. The line is being bet in the other direction so there should be even more value backing the Cougars in this situation.

 

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? CLOSING NUMBERS -- The college football schedule this weekend is as dull as it gets. After going 3-3 two weeks ago, I took a needed bye last week. Here are my six picks for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Louisiana State (+8) over ALABAMA; KANSAS STATE (+3) over Kansas; STANFORD (+7) over Oregon; Southern California (-10) over ARIZONA STATE; MICHIGAN (-6) over Purdue; UNLV (-1) over Colorado State.

 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

College Football Moves of the Week

* Michigan State bet from -18.5 to -20.5 at home against Western Michigan.
* Louisville money in at +19 at West Virginia dropping the number to +17.
* Arkansas moved from a 5-point favorite to 7 against South Carolina.
* Baylor 'dog money found taking 16.5-points at Missouri dropping number to 14.
* LSU on the road dropped from +10 down to +7.5 at Alabama in the Game of the Week.
* Notre Dame bet Thursday from -10 to -12.5 against Navy.
* Nebraska home 'dog money came at +5.5 against their old rival Oklahoma, now at 4.
* Michigan at home laying 4.5-points to Purdue, pushed up to -6.5.

 

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ELIMINATION GAME: Rebels, Rams hanging on

ELIMINATION GAME: Rebels, Rams hanging on

ELIMINATION GAME: Rebels, Rams hanging on

Winner keeps slim bowl hopes alive; season essentially over for loser



Colorado State football coach Steve Fairchild took what seemed like an odd approach in downplaying the importance of tonight's loser-out game.

But maybe Fairchild has a good reason. The losing team is essentially done for the season, but even the winner barely clings to the hope of bowl eligibility.

Besides, Fairchild has the luxury of looking at the big picture in his second season trying to rebuild Colorado State's program. UNLV coach Mike Sanford probably doesn't have that kind of time.

UNLV is desperate to taste the postseason for the first time since 2000. Sanford, at 14-42 in his fifth season, probably has to take the team to a bowl game to ensure a sixth season.

So plenty is at stake when the Rebels (3-6, 1-4 Mountain West Conference) play Colorado State (3-6, 0-5) at 7 p.m. at Sam Boyd Stadium.

"It couldn't be any more like a playoff," UNLV quarterback Omar Clayton said.

Each team needs to win out to reach a bowl game, meaning the loser is essentially done for the season.

"It's a whole new season for us," Sanford said.

Colorado State would seem to be a good opponent for the Rebels, who could use a lesser foe after having faced and lost to four ranked teams.

The Rams have lost six in a row, and they rank in the lower half of the Mountain West in nearly every significant category. Their pass defense, which yields 260.8 yards per game, is at the bottom.

Fairchild could have a quick hook for quarterback Grant Stucker, whose starting status wasn't announced until Tuesday. He has completed just 52.7 percent of his passes and thrown 12 interceptions.

But history is on the Rams' side. They have won 12 of the past 13 meetings, though many were close, and are undefeated against the Rebels in Las Vegas.

And it's not as if UNLV is breezing into this game. The Rebels have given up more than 500 yards four times, and the offense has been inconsistent. They lead the conference with 195 first downs, but are in the middle of the pack in red-zone offense (77.8 percent) and turnover margin (minus-0.44 average).

Maybe that's why oddsmakers have had difficultly putting a line on the game. The Rams opened as 11/2-point favorites, but the line now gives UNLV the advantage by a point.

Should UNLV win, it still has the difficult task of trying to win at Air Force next week. Then, after a bye, the Rebels host an improved San Diego State team that might be trying to qualify for a bowl bid.

UNLV made a strong run at the postseason at the end of last year, beating New Mexico and Wyoming before getting upset at San Diego State to finish 5-7.

The ending stung all the way into this season, but perhaps just getting in contention is something the Rebels can use as motivation.

"We've been in it before, and it does have a playoff feel to it," Rebels wide receiver Rodelin Anthony said. "It's a good feeling to have, it really is. It ups the tempo in practice. It ups the mentality and preparation. It ups the intensity."

The Rebels will find out after tonight if it's likely they'll have those feelings again next week.

 

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COLORADO STATE VS. UNLV

? WHEN: 7 p.m. today

? WHERE: Sam Boyd Stadium

? TV/RADIO: The Mtn. (334), KWWN-AM (1100)

? LINE: UNLV -1; total: 62

 

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Trojans expected to rebound

Trojans expected to rebound

Trojans expected to rebound

Carroll's teams have responded well after losses



With most of last year's defense now in the NFL and true freshman Matt Barkley at the helm of the offense, Southern California is not the same team.

The Trojans have had their moments this season -- their 27-point victory at California on Oct. 3 being the best example.

But last weekend at Autzen Stadium, USC saw its faint hopes of a national title go up in smoke, as Oregon abused the Trojans' defense en route to a 47-20 victory.

The Ducks rushed for 391 yards and gained 613 yards against the Trojans, who experienced their most lopsided defeat since 1997.

And while USC no longer is in the national title conversation, coach Pete Carroll's teams have performed well after a straight-up loss, going 10-5 against the spread (ATS) in that role.

Arizona State (4-4) has not defeated a team with a winning record all season, and that streak will continue today. The Sun Devils are off a 23-21 home loss to Cal.

Lay the 10 points and take the Trojans to rebound from last week's embarrassing defeat.

Six more plays for today (home team in CAPS):

? Northwestern (+16) over IOWA -- The Hawkeyes pulled off one of the miracle point-spread covers of the season last week against Indiana. But they are in a classic look-ahead spot now with a huge trip to Ohio State on deck.

Also, Iowa is 5-13 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of the 2006 season.

? Duke (+10) over NORTH CAROLINA -- The past four meetings between these Tobacco Road rivals have been decided by eight points or less.

North Carolina is 0-4 ATS as a double-digit Atlantic Coast Conference favorite since 2002. Duke is 29-13 ATS as an away underdog over the same span.

? South Carolina (+7) over ARKANSAS -- The Razorbacks have made great strides in coach Bobby Petrino's second season, but they are not ready to lay a touchdown to a Southeastern Conference foe of this caliber.

Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett lacks mobility, and the Gamecocks' pass rush, even without Cliff Matthews, should pose problems.

? KANSAS STATE (+3) over Kansas -- Since a 52-point loss at Texas Tech, the Wildcats have played well in winning two of their past three games. Kansas has lost three straight, as these Big 12 North rivals appear to be headed in different directions.

? PENN STATE (-4) over Ohio State -- The Nittany Lions have improved as the season has progressed and have the edge at quarterback with Daryll Clark over Terrelle Pryor.

Happy Valley has not been kind to the Buckeyes, as they have covered only one game in their past five trips there.

? Oregon-STANFORD (Over 581/2) -- The Ducks and junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli have been virtually unstoppable since a season-opening debacle on the blue turf at Boise State. Oregon is averaging 39.6 points during its seven-game winning streak.

Stanford, led by hard-charging tailback Toby Gerhart, has scored at least 24 points in every Pac-10 game this season.

Last week: 4-3 against the spread

Season: 19-29-1