Week 10 Misc Analysis'

[Senor Capper]

NFL keeps surprising!
Cincy?s impressive, even though unlikely

11/08/2005 - by Andy Iskoe

Halfway through the regular season the surprises continue in the NFL. Cincinnati is well on its way to making the playoffs in more than a decade with their 7-2 record.



The entire NFC East remains a pleasant surprise with last place Philadelphia having fallen to 4-4 after losing at Washington. The Giants are the biggest surprise at 6-2, led by an ever-improving Eli Manning at QB.

Perhaps the quietest surprise ? and one we can take advantage of as bettors ? has been the solid first half play of Seattle. The Seahawks lead the NFC West at 6-2 and are tied with both Atlanta, Carolina and the Giants for the NFC?s best record.

Favorites continue to exceed historical norms in covering pointspreads. At 72-53-4 the 57.6 winning percentage is unusually high for this late in the season. History suggests underdogs should perform better the rest of the way. But there is nothing that says this HAS to happen!

What this has done is to inflate pointspreads on favorites but we may be in a cycle where the difference between good teams and bad teams is widening.

If this is indeed the case then favorites will continue to win and exceed expectations.

Part of the concern in expecting underdogs to improve their performance is that as teams are eliminated from playoff contention they might just quit.

In any case, there?s no quit in our analysis. Here?s a look at the this weekend?s games.

Sunday

Kansas City +2? at Buffalo Over/Under 42?: Buffalo had last week off to recover from their late blown lead at New England. Still, Buffalo is a fundamentally solid and well balanced team and has the talent to win and get back in contention for the playoffs. This is a favorable spot for the host catching the Chiefs off of a win against their most bitter rival. BUFFALO is the play.

Washington PK at Tampa Bay 34: Both teams have outstanding defenses but Washington has the clear edge on offense. Tampa QB Chris Simms is struggling and the Buccs have played a very weak schedule, masking their weaknesses. The NFC East has four solid teams while there are still many questions about the strength of the NFC South. WASHINGTON is the play.

New England at Miami NL: Miami?s lack of depth has started to show in recent games and although they are well coached they will not be out coached by New England?s Bill Belichick. The Dolphins will be able to focus on containing the Patriots? passing attack and getting the Pats on the road after a Monday night game gives the Fish additional edges. MIAMI is the play.

San Francisco +12 at Chicago 33: The lines maker?s combination of side and total have this game projected as a 23-10 Chicago win. The 49ers have been woeful on the road, losing all three games by at least 17 points. But Chicago?s ground oriented offense is not designed to roll up scores. Their defense is geared to totally shut down weak offenses. UNDER the total is the play.

Minnesota +10 at N Y Giants 45: The Giants have had back to back dominating defensive efforts against Washington and San Francisco. Six of the last seven meetings have featured at least 45 total points with the lone exception the one sided 41-0 blowout win by the Giants in the 2000 Playoffs. OVER the Total is the play.

Arizona +4 at Detroit 40: Arizona has been solid on offense in being able to move the ball but have been unable to score touchdowns. Detroit has been solid on defense but the offense has been anemic. The home team has won and covered the last five meetings between the teams including double digit wins by the Lions the past two seasons. DETROIT is the play.

Baltimore +8 at Jacksonville 34: Both teams have been well above average on defense and well below average on offense. This is the recipe for a low scoring game of field position. The Ravens may be about to quit on the season with their 2-6 record leaving them almost certainly out of the Playoffs. UNDER the Total is the play.

Houston at Indianapolis NL: Indianapolis was unbeaten heading into Monday night?s game at New England and defeated the Texans 38-20 a week earlier. The high scoring results of their first meeting is deceiving but will add a few points to the total here. UNDER the Total is the play.

NY Jets +9? at Carolina (40): Carolina has not been trustworthy in the role of a big favorite and the Jets ? a playoff team a season ago ? should show offensive improvement as they?ve had time to adjust to the multiple injuries that have befallen them this season. NEW YORK JETS is the play.

Denver -3 at Oakland 47: Oakland is off of a gut wrenching loss at bitter rival Kansas City while Denver had last week off. The Broncos have not allowed more than 24 points in any game. The Raiders had scored 38 and 34 in their two games prior to tallying 23 at KC last week for their three highest scoring games of the season. Denver has lost two of their three road games already this season. OAKLAND is the play.

St. Louis +7 at Seattle 49?: St. Louis is off of their Bye week and should have several of their key injured players back for this game. Seattle won at St. Louis earlier, avenging a trio of losses to the Rams last season. St. Louis needs a win here to keep on the heels of the ?Hawks as a loss virtually gives the Division title to the Seahawks. ST. LOUIS is the play.

Green Bay +9? at Atlanta 42: Green Bay continues to struggle on offense as too many key players have been lost to injury. Atlanta is playing well on both sides of the ball with the league?s best rushing game and an aggressive defense that has forced nearly two and a half turnovers per game. The Packer defense surprisingly ranks ninth in the league and has been effective against both the run and the pass. UNDER the Total is the play.

Cleveland +8 at Pittsburgh 35: Pittsburgh overcame multiple key injuries to earn a hard fought win at Green Bay last week. Cleveland has been competitive in virtually every game this season and the Steeler injuries could mean settling for field goals rather than touchdowns. CLEVELAND is the play.

Monday

Dallas +1? at Philadelphia 40: Philly?s problems have been well chronicled and the Eagles will be hard pressed to replace the talents of WR Terrell Owens. Dallas hammered the Eagles last month and thus this game is crucial to Philly?s quest to return to the Playoffs. They are unbeaten at home but catch Dallas off of their Bye week. Philly has defeated the Cowboys six in a row on this field and their sense of urgency gets them the nod. PHILADELPHIA is the play.

Last week: 6-6-1

Season:68-53-8

 

[baby johnson]

sr, is andy iskoe pretty accuraor just average as a picker

 

[Senor Capper]

His Dad was alot better than him in his day (Murray) Andy himself has been around a long time (very well known) has his own site..
The Logical Approach. He is also in the Stardust Invitational again this year.

Oh regarding your question.....
He does his work & has been pretty decent

 

[Killrus]

"Cleveland has been competitive in virtually every game this season"

Funniest thing I've read this morning.

 

[thom24ad]

Thanks Senor

Thanks Senor

Great write-ups!
-I am totally with Andy on Washington and SF @ Chicago Under.
-Leans are:
Oakland +3
St. Louis +7
Cleveland +8

Last week 7-4-1

 

[Senor Capper]

Week 10 primer: Passing the road test

It shouldn't be a surprise that 17 of the NFL's 32 teams have winning records at home. But what's a bit surprising is that only four of those 17 teams also have winning records on the road.

Those teams are: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta and Carolina. Last season, the teams to finish above .500 both home and away were: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego and Philadelphia. Just like last season, expect two of the teams that achieve the feat to play each other in the Super Bowl.

I like the Colts and Panthers as clear-cut favorites, with the Bengals and Falcons right behind them in their respective conferences. Funny how the scheduling works: The Colts and Bengals play each other in Week 11, and the Panthers and Falcons have a home-and-home series set for Weeks 13 and 17. As for this week's big games. ...


GAME OF THE WEEK

Dallas at Philadelphia. This is the biggest regular-season game for the Eagles since they started 0-2 in 2003. There have been more marquee matchups in their recent run of success, but I think you learn the most about a consistently good franchise in the direst of situations.

The Eagles are in the strange position of last place in the NFC East and moving forward without Terrell Owens on the field. That makes this team what it was in '03 -- reliant on sound defense and Donovan McNabb to make play after play. The bright side of last week's loss at Washington: There was an indication of both, only with McNabb just falling short in rally mode.

I think with their finger on the desperation button, they will put together their best all-around performance to beat a very tough Dallas team that thrashed them 33-10 in Week 5. They'll play better in coverage against the Cowboys' veteran receivers and execute blitzes against Drew Bledsoe, while a healthier McNabb will spread the ball around well without Owens.

The Cowboys will counter with a good running game, heavy hitting and some big plays of their own, but at home, on Monday night, if the Eagles have any hopes of saving their season, they will come up bigger. Eagles 24, Cowboys 21.

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK

New England at Miami. The Patriots are another team in a strange position -- they're not winning every game anymore. At 4-4, they still remain in first place in the AFC East, but they need this victory to maintain their one-game lead over the Bills and this week's opponent, the Dolphins. I'm sure the Pats also remember the unbelievable rally that allowed Miami to win this matchup last season.

The Dolphins will have success running with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but they don't have the passing game and defense to exploit the Pats' injured state. With Tom Brady vs. Gus Frerotte, the visitors will make fewer mistakes, allowing Bill Belichick to get the better of coaching protege Nick Saban. Patriots 23, Dolphins 16.

RIVALRY OF THE WEEK

Denver at Oakland. The Broncos, who went 5-0 at home in the first half of the season, start the second half with a big division road game against coach Mike Shanahan's archenemy. Despite being 3-5, the Raiders have played pretty good football -- their two close losses against the Chiefs have hurt them.

Look for the Broncos' running game to get back on a roll after a week off, which will help Jake Plummer continue to play a hot hand in the passing game. The Raiders have offensive balance with Kerry Collins and LaMont Jordan, but Denver's daunting defense will make it difficult for them to rally. Broncos 27, Raiders 20.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

St. Louis at Seattle. For the well-rested Rams, Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are returning just in time for this big division game. Shaun Alexander has been unstoppable, and Matt Hasselbeck has been unflappable. These teams lit it up to the tune of a 37-31 Seattle win in Missouri in Week 5, and they'll keep up a similar pace in Washington. I just think the 'Hawks have turned the corner as a legit NFC contender, and they will all but wrap up the division title with another win here. Seahawks 38, Rams 34.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City over Buffalo. Yes, this is a minor upset, but when you consider the Bills have played their best games at home against AFC opponents and the bad news about Priest Holmes, it won't be an easy week for the Chiefs.

On the bright side, teams have roamed at will against Buffalo's run defense, and Larry Johnson has proved capable of carrying the load for KC. Kelly Holcomb, Eric Moulds and Lee Evans will make it interesting late against a bad Chiefs pass defense, but Johnson also will play the role of closer. Whether you favor team A or B, however, you can't go wrong with Arthur Bryant's or the Anchor Bar for your game-watching meal of choice. Chiefs 28, Bills 24.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Carolina over New York Jets. Look how far my preseason Super Bowl prediction has fallen. While the Jets have tanked with injuries playing a major part, at least the Panthers are making good on my promise, making this at least a "half" Super Bowl preview. I like the fact the Jets aren't giving up, but there's no way John Fox's team gives in to them this week.

Carolina's front seven will have a dominant field day against Brooks Bollinger and Curtis Martin, and I have a strange hunch that guys named Steve and Stephen will do some scoring for the home team. Panthers 31, Jets 14.

 

[Senor Capper]

REST OF THE WEEK

Arizona at Detroit. Inexplicably, many had both teams pegged as NFC division title contenders in the preseason, and predictably, they've both disappointed. The Cardinals can't run or stop the run, and the Lions can't seem to forge an identity. Injuries and ineffective personnel are responsible for the team's respective problems, so that will help one of them find temporary solutions this week. Just two little words -- "at Detroit" -- tell me to pick the Leos. Lions 20, Cardinals 13.

Houston at Indianapolis. The Colts' attitude and focus has never been sharper after finally winning at New England, and that, plus the fact the Texans made a game of it in Week 7, will keep Indy from letting up and letting down. On Edgerrin, on Peyton, on Marvin, on Dwight, your team has never looked so bright. Running, passing, pass rush -- the Colts have too many ways to beat teams, and the Texans, with shaky fronts on both sides of the ball, just have too few. Colts 45, Texans 17.

San Francisco at Chicago. There's a summer wind blowing through Soldier Field with Lovie Smith continuing to build his coach of the year campaign. Great defense and a great running game usually lead to great things, and that's my kind of team, Chicago is. As for the Niners, they looked awful in this exact matchup last season, and they're even worse off this time around. Bears 24, 49ers 10.

Minnesota at New York Giants. The Vikings can't stop explosive, versatile running backs, athletic tight ends or big-play go-to receivers, and the G-Men have one each of those. Brad Johnson will give Minny a chance against New York's secondary woes, but what he does won't be enough to compensate for what Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey and Plaxico Burress will do. Giants 34, Vikings 20.

Baltimore at Jacksonville. This game should feature more onomatopoeia than either John Madden's analysis or those Car-X commercials. Pound for pound, the team that has more heavyweights will be the winner, and with Ray Lewis out of the lineup and Jamal Lewis out of top shape, I'm in the corner of gritty Byron Leftwich and grittier coach Jack Del Rio. Jaguars 20, Ravens 17.

Green Bay at Atlanta. Hot new NFL name Samkon Gado gives the Pack someone to run with against the Falcons, but their comeback attempt will be grounded at the Georgia Dome. The combination of Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn and Alge Crumpler will work over Green Bay's front seven, while Falcons defensive coordinator Ed Donatell will scheme his fast and furious unit to hold back his former team's offense late. Falcons 27, Packers 20.

Washington at Tampa Bay. The Bucs are heading toward fading from the NFC playoff picture, and the Redskins aren't too far behind. Both will bring solid defensive efforts into this matchup against the others' limited offenses, but the difference will be turnovers. While the Redskins have forced only six takeaways, the Bucs, with playmakers such as Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber, have 15, and they will benefit from the energy of playing at home to force some more this week. Buccaneers 17, Redskins 13.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Without Ben Roethlisberger for the third time this season, the Steelers will keep things as simple as possible with their running game, regardless of whether it's Duce Staley, Willie Parker, Jerome Bettis, Verron Haynes, you or your accountant pounding it between the tackles behind their stout offensive line. Once they have no problems wearing down the Browns, even Charlie Batch can't botch that. Steelers 23, Browns 13.

BYES OF THE WEEK

The young Bengals have been very impressive with their pass-oriented yet balanced offense and takeaway-oriented yet disciplined defense. All that, however, will be put to the ultimate test against Indy in Week 11. ...

The Chargers have survived their most brutal scheduling stretch, staying well alive in the AFC playoff picture at 5-4. Now they get three of the next four games as favorable matchups at home before they draw Indy in Week 15. ...

Speaking of Indy, their once toughest AFC South rival, the Titans, have two favorable matchups at home before going to Indy in Week 13. ...

The Saints have nothing to do with Indy, expect the fact that Peyton Manning hails from New Orleans. Their schedule isn't so favorable, with at Pats, at Jets and four games left against their tough NFC South competition. The team has shown some good fight -- that just might not be enough to get it another win this season.

STATS OF THE WEEK

Week 9 straight up: 11-3


Week 9 record vs. the spread: 8-6


Season record straight up: 84-46
Season record vs. the spread: 63-67

 

[Senor Capper]

Harmon Forecast

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Week 10 - Sunday, Nov. 13, 2005
*Detroit 21 Arizona 17 -- The Lions are not particularly solid on offense or defense, but they've managed to pull out some victories. The Cardinals might be a year away from making an impact under coach Dennis Green.

*Indianapolis 30 Houston 14 -- The lack of cohesion on the Texans' offensive line has affected the entire unit. Houston will need to protect its quarterback and give the running backs a little daylight against a Colts defense that is much improved.

*Jacksonville 21 Baltimore 14 -- The Ravens defense doesn't intimidate opponents as in recent seasons. Plus, the running game isn't performing up to par. The Jaguars should easily defend their home turf.

New England 28 *Miami 14 -- The Patriots have been hit hard by injuries, but the return of Tedy Bruschi has inspired the much-maligned defense. The Dolphins are improving under new coach Nick Saban, but they're still not at the Patriots' level.

*NY Giants 26 Minnesota 17 -- The Vikings have lost QB Daunte Culpepper for the season, which just adds to Minnesota's on-field and off-field problems. The Giants have a very good offensive attack, led by quarterback Eli Manning.

*Chicago 20 San Francisco 13 -- The Bears defense has been outperforming the 1985 Buddy Ryan-led version. San Francisco's quarterback troubles will compound its problems on the road.

Kansas City 24 *Buffalo 21 -- The Chiefs' running game is firmly established. Add in TE Tony Gonzalez, and the Bills, coming off a bye week, will certainly have their hands at home.

Denver 24 *Oakland 23 -- The Broncos' running game is one of the league's best and should be sharp coming off a bye week. However, the Raiders have been surprisingly good on offense with LaMont Jordan and Randy Moss.

*Carolina 24 NY Jets 14 -- The Panthers are effective on offense and defense, and they should have their way against the Jets, who continue to regroup on offense. Carolina also will benefit from home-field advantage.

*Seattle 24 St. Louis 23 -- Shaun Alexander is having a terrific season; his ability to effectively run the ball has opened up the Seahawks' offense. The Rams are still in recovery mode after losing coach Mike Martz to a health issue, and could suffer from being rusty following a bye in Week 9.

Washington 21 *Tampa Bay 17 -- Washington's Mark Brunell has been one of this season's top quarterbacks, much to the surprise of many experts. The Bucs need to provide protection for QB Chris Simms, who needs all the help he can get after replacing injured Brian Griese.

*Atlanta 23 Green Bay 21 -- The struggling Packers will need to depend on QB Brett Favre, who doesn't have much to work with. Michael Vick and the Falcons will take full advantage of their home turf.

*Pittsburgh 26 Cleveland 12 -- The Steelers' ability to run the ball, along with their ability to defend well, will power Pittsburgh to a victory. Cleveland is in disarray on offense.

Week 10 - Monday, Nov. 14, 2005
*Philadelphia 24 Dallas 21 -- The Eagles will try to establish a running game after being pass-happy during the first half of the season. Doing so should power them to a narrow victory against the Cowboys, who are coming off a bye week.

* -- Home Team

 

[Senor Capper]

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Prediction: New England Patriots


Reason:
The Patriots didn?t do much for their supporters on Monday night when they were hammered at home by the Colts. Now they travel to face divisional foe Miami on a short week. Things aren?t getting any easier for New England as the season goes on, or are they?



If there?s one thing that the defending champs can be thankful for this year, it?s that they make their living in the AFC East. They currently lead the division despite a mediocre 4-4 record, and essentially this will be their ticket into the postseason. Of course, all they have to do is win the divisional games. It might be tougher than it seems, but this week they will move to 2-0 within the division. Buffalo is the only other East team with a winning divisional record, and they sit at 3-5 overall.



Despite all the imperfections this season, the Pats have yet to lose back-to-back games. We suspect that they don?t feel very good after Indy put it one them in front of the MNF crowd, and that loss will serve as ample motivation for this contest. Brady, Belichick, and handful of other players simply will not settle for anything less than a postseason birth. A win today gets them one step closer to the postseason where anything can happen.



Miami has really struggled since coming out of the gate at 2-1, and in fact has now lost four of its last five overall. That includes two in a row at home. The Fins did catch that Pats sleeping in Miami last December, recording a 29-28 win on MNF, but this time you can believe that they will have the full attention of the struggling visitors. Previous to that loss, NE had won and covered four straight against the Dolphins.



New England has lost to Indy, Denver, San Diego, and Carolina. All four of those teams are capable of scoring. This Miami team is not. You can presently get the Pats at less than a fieldgoal, and that sets up a nice win should this one come down to the steady leg of Venatieri.

Play New England



---Shawn Torrey