week 10 plays and h&a power trends

[vanbasten]

week 9 8-2 (+18.00 units)
overall 44-32-2 (+28.40 units)
starting bankroll $5,000
current bankroll $7,840

power trend ratings up on friday.

early leans...

cinn +
minny +
houston +

good luck.

 

[vanbasten]

i see alot of discussion on this jets/phins game. i liked the jets early this week, then the line went to 3. kicked myself for not playing it before then, but now it's back at 2.5. don't think it will stay here and regardless if lucas plays or not, without fiedler, this isn't the same dolphins team.

so...

jets -2.5 3*

good luck.

 

[vanbasten]

power trend ratings

power trend ratings

HOME POWER RATINGS

Packers 31
Rams 30
Buccaneers 27
Eagles 27
Falcons 26
Jets 25
49ers 25
Broncos 25
Steelers 24
Lions 23
Saints 23
Titans 22
Browns 21
Patriots 21
Giants 21
Cowboys 20
Chiefs 20
Raiders 19
Panthers 18
Bengals 18
Ravens 18
Jaguars 18
Vikings 17
Colts 15
Cardinals 15
Chargers 15
Redskins 14
Dolphins 14
Bears 13
Seahawks 12
Bills 10
Texans 7


AWAY POWER RATINGS

Rams 27
Packers 26
Jets 25
Titans 23
Buccaneers 23
Lions 23
Steelers 23
Patriots 22
Broncos 21
Giants 21
Ravens 21
Falcons 21
Cowboys 20
49ers 20
Saints 20
Chiefs 18
Eagles 18
Redskins 18
Bengals 18
Browns 18
Vikings 16
Bears 16
Colts 16
Panthers 15
Cardinals 15
Jaguars 15
Raiders 15
Bills 14
Seahawks 13
Chargers 12
Texans 7
Dolphins 7


this weeks three biggest variances are jets+, st louis - , and new england -. already played the jets, but will add one unit for 3 units total.

also playing...

arizona/seattle under 37.5 2*
eagles/colts under 42.5 3*

good luck.

 

[vanbasten]

eagles/colts total

eagles/colts total

would love to hear a good argument on why this total should even get close to the 42.5.

in the birds 8 games this year they have given up an average of 14.75 points/game. the last 3 games they have given up 8.67 points/game. now the colts come to town without a running game and the total is in the 40's?? peyton has been far from himself and w/o the run to support his passing game, coupled with the eagles secondary and blitz packages, i can't see the colts scoring more than 13, and i believe that to be a gift.

so with the colts getting 13-14 points, the birds will have to put up 29-30 points? no way. ried is now committed to running the ball more often. earlier this year they were over 60/40% pass/run. since the giants game he is committed to running the ball at least 50/50 or more. the eagles are big on clock management as well, and will milk a lead for all it's worth. i know the colts have given up over 20 points more games than not, but dungy's a defensive guy and his will get better. just don't see this total going over 35, and that leaves me a touchdown cushion.

good luck.

 

[vanbasten]

adding...

rams - 5.5 3*

this line all over the place. opened at 6, up to 6.5 down to 6, and now to 5.5. i'm taking it now to get the hook.

2 sides, 2 totals, only looking to add one more play (total - balt/cinncy over) for sunday, but see the line moving my way, so will wait.

of my early leans, still like minny and cinncy, but want to keep plays to a minimum this week. after 2 good weeks, just want to play my cards close.

depending on how sunday shakes out, i do like the broncos on monday night.

to recap:

rams -5.5 3*
jets -2.5 3*

eagles/colts under 42.5 3*
cards/seahawks under 37.5 2*

good luck.

 

[vanbasten]

adding...

ravens/bengals over 37.5 2*

that's it. good luck.

 

[vanbasten]

sunday 3-2 (+.40 units)


broncos -6 2*

good luck.

 

[vanbasten]

adding 3 units

adding 3 units

broncos - 6 5*

only my second 5 unit play this season. glad to see people on both sides of this one tonight.

silly to predict, but i have it at 27-17 broncos

good luck to all.