:nono: :nono: Shame on you for opening this thread, everyone knows there is no such thing as a lock!!:nono: :moon: :nono: :moon: 
:lol:
:lol: Week 11 LOCK of the YEAR!
- Thread starter Blitz
- Start date
yeah there is..bet every dog in the nfl every week and you will make more money than if you handicap the games yourself..week in and week out they pay nicely..fade EVERY favorite EVERY time..
Favs vs dogs
Favs vs dogs
I have tracked favs vs dogs, breaking out home from the road variety, faithfully (or should I say doggedly) for around 25 years and I'm here to tell you that most of the time it ends up very close to even by the end of most given years.If there is an imbalance or overload towards one side at some juncture of the season I always give the options on the opposite side a longer look because I know it'll likely even out by the end.If the oddsmakers do get beat by one side more than the other one year you can count on that side being a tougher play the next year.Bet all dogs every game every week of every year and the vigorish will eat you alive.There are no solutions that simple.
Favs vs dogs
I have tracked favs vs dogs, breaking out home from the road variety, faithfully (or should I say doggedly) for around 25 years and I'm here to tell you that most of the time it ends up very close to even by the end of most given years.If there is an imbalance or overload towards one side at some juncture of the season I always give the options on the opposite side a longer look because I know it'll likely even out by the end.If the oddsmakers do get beat by one side more than the other one year you can count on that side being a tougher play the next year.Bet all dogs every game every week of every year and the vigorish will eat you alive.There are no solutions that simple.
LoL Blitz - I was just curious as to see what it was, and congratulate you on it if it won!
Bej - that has worked that way recently, but do not agree that will work in long run.
As edludes says - nothing is that easy in gambling.
Good luck
Fluk
Bej - that has worked that way recently, but do not agree that will work in long run.
As edludes says - nothing is that easy in gambling.
Good luck
Fluk
newcapper said:betting dogs??? all the time???? whoa I'd love to have you as a customer!!!!!!!
betting dogs all the time.= loser.
betting favs all the time .= loser
thats the trouble with wagering you got to be able to be versatile enough to find the best value as we all like to say.
Anyone that says they are just a fav or dog player or total player I dont think can win consistantly. you can have one thing that you are the best at. But you got to be best at finding the winning plays and they aint always just dogs and favs.
its why we are here to figure this stuff out.
Scott-Atlanta
i understand why you people don't think that betting dogs will always payoff..however in the nfl the salary cap has virtually given every team the same talent level , while the public continues to bet the favorites and will continue to do so..the books don't need to adjust the fav # down because the public money will always be on the favs..this systen didn't start working consistently until a few years ago when the salary cap made all teams even..it worked last year, it works this year and will continue to work as long as the public bets the favs. check it out!!
I will say this...........I have noticed when I play say 80% dogs and maybe 20% favorites I have done a lot better than when I play a lot of favs. I have noticed that in the last 20 years betting has really boomed(internet,espn,more sports services etc) which means there is a lot more people betting these days which means that since most bettors bet favs then thus leads more value to taking the points........this is just what I see and is my opinion only, I may be right or wrong. I still think you have to handicap every game on its own merit........remember when taking a 7 point fav....there are 3 possible outcomes
Your team wins by more than 7.............You win
Your team wins by less than 7...............You lose
your team loses outright........................you lose
you lose on 2 of 3 scenarios
now you take a 7 point dog..again 3 possible outcomes
Your team loses by more than 7.............You lose
Your team loses by less than 7...............You win
Your team wins outright..........................Youe win
You win on 2 or 3 scenarios
No one can tell me these %%% dont add up in the long run.......
Your team wins by more than 7.............You win
Your team wins by less than 7...............You lose
your team loses outright........................you lose
you lose on 2 of 3 scenarios
now you take a 7 point dog..again 3 possible outcomes
Your team loses by more than 7.............You lose
Your team loses by less than 7...............You win
Your team wins outright..........................Youe win
You win on 2 or 3 scenarios
No one can tell me these %%% dont add up in the long run.......
lock of the year...
lock of the year...
the lock of the year was rams to beat n.e. in super bowl!!
i'm sure you remember that!!
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
lock of the year...
the lock of the year was rams to beat n.e. in super bowl!!
i'm sure you remember that!!
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
