Week 11 Plays

[GM]

Last Week: 8-4, +3.55 units. 0-2 on props for a ?-unit loss on each
Overall: 51-43-3, +6.05 units
All plays are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise.

Two plays in so far:

Pittsburgh -3 -105: Just like Pitt's passing game against Tenn's crummy pass D. Titans have won 4 in a row, but haven't faced a good team during the string (vs Jax, @ Cin, @ Indy, Hou). This should be a major shock to the system. Tenn has also shown against good oppoents they are vulnerable at home. Steelers treating last week's tie like a loss because they gave up a 17-point lead late. Too much firepower.

San Fran -2 -105: The line movement on this one surprises me a bit. I could be wrong but I think the wheels have started to fall off in San Diego. Niners have not been dominating opponents lately, but they are getting the job done and the Chargers aren't. The schedule just gets tougher and tougher for SD after beefing up their record against mostly weak opposition.

Many more plays coming....

Good luck everyone.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Pitt & SF are 2 of my picks........as usual, still thinking alike. Probably will go with Tampa & Jax as my other 2. Ugh...4 NFL faves. GL THE HITMAN

 

[GM]

Well, thinking half alike anyways. I'm still debating taking Carolina and Houston. LOL But I have so many other plays I'll be making, these 2 might not make the cut.

Good luck to you too this week.

 

[THE HITMAN]

I have PITT & SF on top, for sure. CAR LB/INJ situation bothers me a bit, so right now it is TAM for me. If I wake up tomorrow & it looks a bit more like a trap, I will cut my play. When is next round of golf??

 

[GM]

The live GT golf season if over for me, for a while. Taking a break until at least after the New Year, but of course will still be playing for fun (or the odd money game if I can find it). I didn't make Team Canada (that was not a surprise), but I was very disappointed with my play on Day 2 after making the cut on Day 1. C'est la vie.

The GT World Championships are being held in Orlando this Monday and Tuesday, and supposedly they will be televised and shown on The Golf Channel. I don't know if they'll really cover the event or just show highlights on Golf Central. Been scouring the TV Guide to find the listings but can't find it.

If I could only find odds on it, I would take Ryan Fehrens of Canada to win the world title. This kid does NOT lose when there's money on the line.

 

[no all]

good luck this week gm

 

[GM]

Thanks no all. Good luck to you too!

Adding:

Minnesota +7: Ok, it's just impossible to ignore the signs. Personally I really dislike the Vikings and this is making my stomach turn, but every sharp 'capper I can find is either on this side or not playing this game. Read the Hilton Consensus thread, or the Battle The Bookies thread if you can at one of the other sites (not gonna name the site here as I am sure Jack doesn't need the competition mentioned, but it starts with "Pho"...if you know that, you know where I am talking about anyways. Doesn't matter, results closely mirror the Hilton #'s that I posted here this week). Sharps all over Minny, guys bringing up the rear love GB in both contests...and it's not even close, it's practically unanimous at both ends in both. Goldman Experiment guys (fade) love the Pack. GB historically very bad in domes. That's the sort of stat I usually try to ignore...but hey, it keeps on happening, and has for years. Home dogs getting 7 to 9? are also 8-1 ATS this year. So based almost solely on sharp opinion and numbers I will go purple this week. (I might actually REALLY go purple holding my breath watching this game).

Cincinnati +3? -105: Bengals starting to show signs of life. They ~should~ be able to give the Browns a decent game here. Browns laying 3? pts on the road seems a bit excessive. But these ARE the Bungles, so who knows who shows up this week? Corey Dillon has a chance to have a very big game here.

More to come...

 

[S-Boom]

GM, do you ever do teaser's. If so look at that Car. +16. Looks like a good one.

S-Boom

 

[GM]

Adding:

Dallas +7? -105: Can't turn down a line like that, extra half point over what all my other books have, and reduced juice special to boot (MPC)! 'Boys are not a good team, but they aren't getting crushed anymore, at least not lately. They've lost by more than this just twice all year...that embarassment Houston dropped on them in Week 1, and the whalloping the Eagles laid on them in Week 3. Other than that all their games have been low-scoring and close. I really don't see a reason why Indy should be giving so many points. Yes, they beat the Eagles last week, but I don't think that means they are out of the woods just yet. That was one bright spot in what has otherwise been a pretty dismal season. This also looks like a perfect overlook opportunity. Indy's got Denver up next, and coming off that big surprise win last week...would not be surprised if Indy forgets they have a game to win in-between. Dallas' D keeps them in games. About 95% sure I will take the Under here too, but at the moment the best I can get is 40?, and I want a 41, as it is a fairly common total, so I will wait a bit on that.

 

[GM]

Hey S-Boom,

No, I'm not a real fan of teasers. You just give away way too much in winnings ($$) for the few points you pick up, in my opinion. I've found most of the time the team covers without the pts anyways (or just fails to cover period, even with the pts). Don't like having to win 2 or 3 games to get paid like I won 1.

There's a decent chance I will bet Carolina anyways. Problem is I like almost every dog on the board this week except for the 2 I listed in my first post here, and I am trying to weed some out. I don't want to have a dozen bets all going at once!

 

[JEFF]

As always, great insight Greg. Like your picks this week. GL.

 

[GM]

Thanks Jeff. Kick ass this weekend.

Adding:

Tampa Bay team total Under 21?: Looking at this game a lot tonight, can't quite figure what Carolina will do offensively. Car is pretty offensively-challenged, but with Rodney Peete back and Muhammad healthier....well, who knows? Approached this game looking at Car's team total, when I came to the realization that no matter how I worked it out it was actually TB's that I should be looking at. To get Over 21? means the Bucs must score AT LEAST 4 times...more, if they don't get at least 3 TD's. Against this Panthers D, that could be a tall order. TB has had limited success when facing decent D. Could be a close one, I could see TB landing in the 17-21 range, but I think much more than that is unlikely.

That's it for tonight, waiting to see how the lines move on everything else in the morning. Expecting to pick up a half or full point on a number of plays that look tempting.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

GL today

 

[GM]

Adding:

Dal/Indy Under 40?: See above writeup. Not gonna get a 41 now, but I still like it.

NY Giants -3: This line says on a neutral field this would be a Pick Em game. I think the Giants are better than that. 'Skins playing 3rd straight road game and getting a bit worn down I think.

 

[GM]

Added:

Atlanta/New Orleans Over 50?

GOOD LUCK TODAY EVERYONE!!!!

 

[GM]

Added:

Pitt/Tenn Over 21? 2nd Half

 

[GM]

Added:

NY Jets/Detroit Over 43

 

[GM]

I'd just like to send out some thank you's today to ...

* Rodney Peete for giving the ball back to the Bucs a couple times late, in or close to the red zone to screw my TB Under team total.

* The 49ers for coughing up a 10 pt lead, and Jose Cortez for missing that chip shot in OT.

* The New Orleans offence for not showing up until half time.

* The Dallas Cowboys for covering for 90% of the game, but then caving at the end.

etc. etc.

Anyways, it's been a real bad day. But I will not give up.

Adding:
New England +6?
NE / Oak Under 48?

Yes, that is really the line I got on the Pats, and MoneyPlays Casino. That's insane. Revenge, whatever, I've never believed in it. I also think the total is too high.

Hopefully something can be salvaged from this miserable day. I'm going out to shovel the foot of snow in my driveway and when I come back in I want the Patriots winning 23-0 in the 3rd....or else!!

 

[GM]

Adding:

Bears/Rams Over 43.