I always like to read his stuff. But of course with his record, just for the humor.
Vinnie Iyer
Searching for rational explanations for my lack of prognostication prowess in another surprising NFL season, I've discovered some inconvenient truths. And these are just the facts, Jack -- or Jill.
The Jets (5-4), 49ers (4-5) and Packers (4-5) all have better records than the Steelers (3-6), Redskins (3-6) and Buccaneers (2-7), three teams who made the playoffs last season.
So much for Martyball being boring -- the Chargers are leading the NFL in scoring offense at 33 points a game. That's fewer than two points a game than the Vikings' pace on their way to a league record 556 in 1998.
Saints rookie wide receiver Marques Colston, the 252nd selection in the 2006 NFL draft, leads the league with 869 receiving yards. His teammate, Reggie Bush, the team's first overall selection, has totaled 796 all-purpose yards.
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has lost six of eight starts and has thrown a league-worst 14 interceptions. He had won 22 of his previous 25 regular-season starts and thrown only 20 picks in that span.
Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer is 28th in the league in passer rating but is 7-2. Redskins quarterback Mark Brunell is 10th but is 3-6 and headed to the bench.
The Dolphins (No. 2) and Raiders (No. 7) are both ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in overall defense but have combined for only five wins.
Terrell Owens has found the end zone in every Cowboys game in which Tony Romo has played at quarterback -- four touchdowns and one two-point conversion.
The Colts are 9-0, but their average margin of victory is less than a touchdown (6.7 points).
OK, I feel much better now. On to the picks. . . .
GAME OF THE WEEK
San Diego at Denver. The Chargers have an explosive offense, but of all the defenses in the league, the Broncos' unit matches up the best against it. Their line is stout, and their fast linebackers are physical and tackle well, which has helped them have good success in slowing down LaDainian Tomlinson in the past. Because of cornerback Champ Bailey's coverage skills, they also can afford to consistently commit a safety to stopping LT.
That's how the Broncos approach every opponent, and that's why they lead the league in scoring defense. Tomlinson is too good and quarterback Philip Rivers is too hot to stop the Bolts cold, but the Broncos will do a better job than most.
So with their typical strong running game sputtering and Plummer back to making mistakes, how will the Broncos score enough themselves? They catch a big break in this game; the Chargers' 3-4 is far from full strength with three starters including Shawne Merriman unavailable, and without the help of the pass rush, their corners will have trouble covering Javon Walker and Rod Smith.
Plummer has had some of his best games against the Chargers, and his effectiveness on bootlegs and rollouts has been key. He should buy enough time to hit the speedy Walker for some more big plays and will be position to take advantage of San Diego's front seven if it overplays the run early.
Both teams are 7-2, and although the Chargers have gotten there in much prettier fashion, being the much grittier team pays off here, and in November, in Denver, in prime time, advantage Broncos. Broncos 20, Chargers 16.
UNDERCARD OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis at Dallas. The undefeated Colts have been on the brink of defeat several times this season, including last week's escape against the Bills. Their porous run defense is a big reason for that. Teams can pound the ball on them and work the clock, limiting Peyton Manning's possessions. It also helps opponents' defenses stay rested enough to make a few plays against Manning.
But opponents have failed to seal the deal because Manning always seems to come up with one more play to trump them and because Manning is in such a zone, teams get caught up trying to play catch-up, throwing too much and abandoning the run at critical times.
Bill Parcells won't do that. He will run, run, run with Julius Jones and Marion Barber and then have Romo take calculated shots at big plays to Owens. Dallas, at home, will have no trouble scoring on Indy, but its defense is a different story.
The unit has been inconsistent, and it's led to the Cowboys' inability to win consecutive games. They lost of one their best all-around edge defenders, Greg Ellis, and their safeties consistently have had breakdowns in coverage. Manning's eyes should light up when he sees Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne streaking downfield. It's a close shave for Indy again, and when it comes down to the clutch and "V" is for victory, history tells us to take Vinatieri over Vanderjagt. Colts 30, Cowboys 27.
COACH OF THE WEEK
Tom Coughlin at Jacksonville. The Giants are using duct tape just to put together a viable roster, but the Jags also are being dragged down by health issues. Each defense is a shell of what it was -- New York's woes have hampered its pass rush and secondary, and Jacksonville's typically stout run defense is hurting up the middle.
So that means the game rides on who will perform better, David Garrard and the Jags' passing game, or Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs and the Giants' running game. Garrard is struggling to make plays, while Barber and Jacobs continue to be durable bright spots to help take pressure off Eli Manning and his limited receiving corps. You can bet Coughlin would love to beat his old team on Monday night to get his current squad back on track, and he'll make it simple and just having his team pound home a much-needed win. Giants 24, Jaguars 17.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at New Orleans. Has there ever been a bigger no-brainer in this category? The Saints are coming off a 38-31 loss to Pittsburgh where the teams totaled 984 yards of offense. The Bengals are coming off a 49-41 loss to San Diego where the teams totaled 976 yards of offense. And oh yeah, this game is indoors.
Quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Drew Brees come in sizzling, and their go-to receivers, Chad Johnson and Colston, are matchup nightmares. So it will be on which team gets more dynamic production of the running game. Cincy hasn't been using Rudi Johnson enough, while the Saints have more pop and versatility with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Saints 38, Bengals 34.
DESPERATION OF THE WEEK
New England at Green Bay. All I can say is "Wha' happened?" Yes, indeed, it's true the Patriots have lost two in a row, and the Red Sox just spent roughly the equivalent of the Pats' payroll to sign someone who's never pitched in the majors. That speaks of desperation.
The Pats can't expect Green Bay to just Pack it in and let them go back on their merry way back to the playoffs. The Packers are playing some sound all-around football under first-year coach Mike McMarthy, and while a rejuvenated Favre and Ahman Green have gotten most of the attention, their run defense has been great with rookie linebacker A.J. Hawk making an immediate impact. So it's on Tom Brady, just like in Minnesota, to throw the ball around on a shaky secondary and win it, and he'll respond. Patriots 17, Packers 14.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
Chicago at New York Jets. The Bears have some of that cockiness from 1985, and although it's a must to have unwavering swagger to be a championship team, they must guard against overconfidence, especially against a team that's shown some of that same attitude in shocking everyone with their 5-4 start -- the Pats know all about that.
The Bears need to stick, pound the ground with Thomas Jones and not get back to Rex Grossman trying to force plays against the Jets' Belichickian -- um, make that Manginian -- 3-4 defense. New York gets some turnovers to make it close, but eventually, Jones and the Bears' offensive line wear it down. Bears 23, Jets 20.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia over Tennessee. You know it's a crazy season when you pick the Pats here and they don't deliver. I feel really good about the Eagles this week because they've been running the ball more and making some game-changing plays on defense.
The Titans' defense really has no answers for both Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, and you can expect their offense to struggle as wily Eagles' defensive coordinator Jim Johnson pulls out his old tricks to fluster McNabb's rookie counterpart, Vince Young. Really, I've been given a lock on silver platter -- I think. Eagles 34, Titans 13.
REST OF THE WEEK
Atlanta at Baltimore. Even if Ray Lewis' injured back keeps him out for another week, the Ravens' defense has enough speed and playmakers to contain Michael Vick and keep him in his funk by forcing takeaways. They can afford to be aggressive because the Falcons don't have the receivers to test their corners. Vick's counterpart, Steve McNair, seems to be getting into a groove with Brian Billick's passing game, and with piling injuries, Atlanta no longer has the pass rush to protect its secondary and prevent big plays. Ravens 23, Falcons 13.
Buffalo at Houston. The Texans' defense is slowly improving and will be hungry for more takeaways at home after breaking out for a four-INT game last week. The unit also catches a break in not needing to deal with the explosive running of Willis McGahee. Rookie middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans can just deal with the straight-line style of Anthony Thomas. The Bills also have shown a better D, but their cornerbacks will have problems matching up with Andre Johnson and former Bill, Eric Moulds. Texans 23, Bills 20.
Minnesota at Miami. This was supposed to be former Viking Daunte Culpepper trying to burn his old team. Instead, the rest of the Dolphins, including Culpepper's latest replacement Joey Harrington, are the ones on fire, while Culpepper's other replacement, Brad Johnson, and the current Vikings are sinking into icy waters. Expect the Dolphins' defense to swarm around Johnson, forcing a few key turnovers, and for Harrington and Chris Chambers to exploit the Vikes' reeling secondary for a few big plays. Dolphins 20, Vikings 13.
Oakland at Kansas City. Both teams are having quarterback issues, but only one has Larry Johnson to make it forget all about that this week. Whether it's Damon Huard or Trent Green, with Tony Gonzalez out, KC will keep it simple, just pounding Johnson 35-40 times and watch him gain chunk after chunk of yardage. Whether it's Aaron Brooks or Andrew Walter, Oakland won't be able to protect either, as Jared Allen and the Chiefs' pass rush comes alive, extra pumped in Arrowhead against their archrivals. Chiefs 31, Raiders 10.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Last week, we once again learned why they call him Fast Willie Parker. Look for plenty of mistakes by the lake from the Browns' run defense, who got burned by a Parker 80-yarder in Cleveland last season. With the offense back to feeding off the run, look for Roethlisberger to go turnover-free again, while MAC QB counterpart Charlie Frye will be very generous with the ball with the Steelers' aggressive 3-4 pass rush in his face. Steelers 23, Browns 13.
St. Louis at Carolina. The week before you play Steve Smith, the game's best receiver, and Julius Peppers, the game's best defender, is a bad one to lose your starting left tackle and your best cornerback. Smith and Keyshawn Johnson should provide some big gains for Jake Delhomme, while without Orlando Pace, Marc Bulger will feel more heat from Peppers and Mike Rucker, which in turn hurts Torry Holt's chance to burn the Panthers' vulnerable secondary. Steven Jackson keeps the Rams in it, but Smith will take them right back out of it. Panthers 24, Rams 17.
Washington at Tampa Bay. Bruce Gradkowski is having a typical up-and-down season as a rookie, but for a change, he's actually the more experienced quarterback in this one. Gradkowski will play well against a shaky 'Skins pass defense by leaning off Carnell Williams' fine running, and Monte Kiffin will throw some wrinkles into the Tampa 2 to throw off Williams' former Auburn teammate Jason Campbell, who will be making his first career NFL start on the road and won't be able to lean on injured back Clinton Portis. Buccaneers 20, Redskins 17.
Detroit at Arizona. This is a great chance for Lions offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, who has plenty of ties to Arizona, to audition to become the head coach there next season. Kevin Jones should run well to open up the passing game, where the Cards' secondary has no answers for Roy Williams. But then again, the Lions' Shaun Rogers-less interior run defense will also struggle against Edgerrin James, and Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will cause more problems downfield. The defenses will be mirages, and the offenses won't be parched. The Lions lose it, but they get closer to winning Brady Quinn. Cardinals 30, Lions 27.
Seattle at San Francisco. Will they or won't they? Regardless if either Shaun Alexander or Matt Hasselbeck or both play, the Seahawks can't take the host 49ers lightly, as both teams come into the action with two-game winning streaks. Led by linebacker Brandon Moore, the Niners' D has been outstanding the past two weeks, so the 'Hawks need to come in balanced no matter who is running and throwing for them. Seattle may need another spark from its special teams to steal it, but with another chance to put away an NFC West foe, it will respond again. Seahawks 24, 49ers 19.
STATS OF THE WEEK
Week 10 straight up: 7-9 (The bubble bursts again)
Week 10 record vs. the spread: 4-12 (This blows, too)
Season record straight up: 75-69 (Gum under the desk)
Season record vs. the spread: 54-90 (The house loves me)
Locks record straight up: 8-2 (No such luck, no such lock)
Vinnie Iyer
Searching for rational explanations for my lack of prognostication prowess in another surprising NFL season, I've discovered some inconvenient truths. And these are just the facts, Jack -- or Jill.
The Jets (5-4), 49ers (4-5) and Packers (4-5) all have better records than the Steelers (3-6), Redskins (3-6) and Buccaneers (2-7), three teams who made the playoffs last season.
So much for Martyball being boring -- the Chargers are leading the NFL in scoring offense at 33 points a game. That's fewer than two points a game than the Vikings' pace on their way to a league record 556 in 1998.
Saints rookie wide receiver Marques Colston, the 252nd selection in the 2006 NFL draft, leads the league with 869 receiving yards. His teammate, Reggie Bush, the team's first overall selection, has totaled 796 all-purpose yards.
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has lost six of eight starts and has thrown a league-worst 14 interceptions. He had won 22 of his previous 25 regular-season starts and thrown only 20 picks in that span.
Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer is 28th in the league in passer rating but is 7-2. Redskins quarterback Mark Brunell is 10th but is 3-6 and headed to the bench.
The Dolphins (No. 2) and Raiders (No. 7) are both ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in overall defense but have combined for only five wins.
Terrell Owens has found the end zone in every Cowboys game in which Tony Romo has played at quarterback -- four touchdowns and one two-point conversion.
The Colts are 9-0, but their average margin of victory is less than a touchdown (6.7 points).
OK, I feel much better now. On to the picks. . . .
GAME OF THE WEEK
San Diego at Denver. The Chargers have an explosive offense, but of all the defenses in the league, the Broncos' unit matches up the best against it. Their line is stout, and their fast linebackers are physical and tackle well, which has helped them have good success in slowing down LaDainian Tomlinson in the past. Because of cornerback Champ Bailey's coverage skills, they also can afford to consistently commit a safety to stopping LT.
That's how the Broncos approach every opponent, and that's why they lead the league in scoring defense. Tomlinson is too good and quarterback Philip Rivers is too hot to stop the Bolts cold, but the Broncos will do a better job than most.
So with their typical strong running game sputtering and Plummer back to making mistakes, how will the Broncos score enough themselves? They catch a big break in this game; the Chargers' 3-4 is far from full strength with three starters including Shawne Merriman unavailable, and without the help of the pass rush, their corners will have trouble covering Javon Walker and Rod Smith.
Plummer has had some of his best games against the Chargers, and his effectiveness on bootlegs and rollouts has been key. He should buy enough time to hit the speedy Walker for some more big plays and will be position to take advantage of San Diego's front seven if it overplays the run early.
Both teams are 7-2, and although the Chargers have gotten there in much prettier fashion, being the much grittier team pays off here, and in November, in Denver, in prime time, advantage Broncos. Broncos 20, Chargers 16.
UNDERCARD OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis at Dallas. The undefeated Colts have been on the brink of defeat several times this season, including last week's escape against the Bills. Their porous run defense is a big reason for that. Teams can pound the ball on them and work the clock, limiting Peyton Manning's possessions. It also helps opponents' defenses stay rested enough to make a few plays against Manning.
But opponents have failed to seal the deal because Manning always seems to come up with one more play to trump them and because Manning is in such a zone, teams get caught up trying to play catch-up, throwing too much and abandoning the run at critical times.
Bill Parcells won't do that. He will run, run, run with Julius Jones and Marion Barber and then have Romo take calculated shots at big plays to Owens. Dallas, at home, will have no trouble scoring on Indy, but its defense is a different story.
The unit has been inconsistent, and it's led to the Cowboys' inability to win consecutive games. They lost of one their best all-around edge defenders, Greg Ellis, and their safeties consistently have had breakdowns in coverage. Manning's eyes should light up when he sees Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne streaking downfield. It's a close shave for Indy again, and when it comes down to the clutch and "V" is for victory, history tells us to take Vinatieri over Vanderjagt. Colts 30, Cowboys 27.
COACH OF THE WEEK
Tom Coughlin at Jacksonville. The Giants are using duct tape just to put together a viable roster, but the Jags also are being dragged down by health issues. Each defense is a shell of what it was -- New York's woes have hampered its pass rush and secondary, and Jacksonville's typically stout run defense is hurting up the middle.
So that means the game rides on who will perform better, David Garrard and the Jags' passing game, or Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs and the Giants' running game. Garrard is struggling to make plays, while Barber and Jacobs continue to be durable bright spots to help take pressure off Eli Manning and his limited receiving corps. You can bet Coughlin would love to beat his old team on Monday night to get his current squad back on track, and he'll make it simple and just having his team pound home a much-needed win. Giants 24, Jaguars 17.
SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at New Orleans. Has there ever been a bigger no-brainer in this category? The Saints are coming off a 38-31 loss to Pittsburgh where the teams totaled 984 yards of offense. The Bengals are coming off a 49-41 loss to San Diego where the teams totaled 976 yards of offense. And oh yeah, this game is indoors.
Quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Drew Brees come in sizzling, and their go-to receivers, Chad Johnson and Colston, are matchup nightmares. So it will be on which team gets more dynamic production of the running game. Cincy hasn't been using Rudi Johnson enough, while the Saints have more pop and versatility with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Saints 38, Bengals 34.
DESPERATION OF THE WEEK
New England at Green Bay. All I can say is "Wha' happened?" Yes, indeed, it's true the Patriots have lost two in a row, and the Red Sox just spent roughly the equivalent of the Pats' payroll to sign someone who's never pitched in the majors. That speaks of desperation.
The Pats can't expect Green Bay to just Pack it in and let them go back on their merry way back to the playoffs. The Packers are playing some sound all-around football under first-year coach Mike McMarthy, and while a rejuvenated Favre and Ahman Green have gotten most of the attention, their run defense has been great with rookie linebacker A.J. Hawk making an immediate impact. So it's on Tom Brady, just like in Minnesota, to throw the ball around on a shaky secondary and win it, and he'll respond. Patriots 17, Packers 14.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
Chicago at New York Jets. The Bears have some of that cockiness from 1985, and although it's a must to have unwavering swagger to be a championship team, they must guard against overconfidence, especially against a team that's shown some of that same attitude in shocking everyone with their 5-4 start -- the Pats know all about that.
The Bears need to stick, pound the ground with Thomas Jones and not get back to Rex Grossman trying to force plays against the Jets' Belichickian -- um, make that Manginian -- 3-4 defense. New York gets some turnovers to make it close, but eventually, Jones and the Bears' offensive line wear it down. Bears 23, Jets 20.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia over Tennessee. You know it's a crazy season when you pick the Pats here and they don't deliver. I feel really good about the Eagles this week because they've been running the ball more and making some game-changing plays on defense.
The Titans' defense really has no answers for both Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, and you can expect their offense to struggle as wily Eagles' defensive coordinator Jim Johnson pulls out his old tricks to fluster McNabb's rookie counterpart, Vince Young. Really, I've been given a lock on silver platter -- I think. Eagles 34, Titans 13.
REST OF THE WEEK
Atlanta at Baltimore. Even if Ray Lewis' injured back keeps him out for another week, the Ravens' defense has enough speed and playmakers to contain Michael Vick and keep him in his funk by forcing takeaways. They can afford to be aggressive because the Falcons don't have the receivers to test their corners. Vick's counterpart, Steve McNair, seems to be getting into a groove with Brian Billick's passing game, and with piling injuries, Atlanta no longer has the pass rush to protect its secondary and prevent big plays. Ravens 23, Falcons 13.
Buffalo at Houston. The Texans' defense is slowly improving and will be hungry for more takeaways at home after breaking out for a four-INT game last week. The unit also catches a break in not needing to deal with the explosive running of Willis McGahee. Rookie middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans can just deal with the straight-line style of Anthony Thomas. The Bills also have shown a better D, but their cornerbacks will have problems matching up with Andre Johnson and former Bill, Eric Moulds. Texans 23, Bills 20.
Minnesota at Miami. This was supposed to be former Viking Daunte Culpepper trying to burn his old team. Instead, the rest of the Dolphins, including Culpepper's latest replacement Joey Harrington, are the ones on fire, while Culpepper's other replacement, Brad Johnson, and the current Vikings are sinking into icy waters. Expect the Dolphins' defense to swarm around Johnson, forcing a few key turnovers, and for Harrington and Chris Chambers to exploit the Vikes' reeling secondary for a few big plays. Dolphins 20, Vikings 13.
Oakland at Kansas City. Both teams are having quarterback issues, but only one has Larry Johnson to make it forget all about that this week. Whether it's Damon Huard or Trent Green, with Tony Gonzalez out, KC will keep it simple, just pounding Johnson 35-40 times and watch him gain chunk after chunk of yardage. Whether it's Aaron Brooks or Andrew Walter, Oakland won't be able to protect either, as Jared Allen and the Chiefs' pass rush comes alive, extra pumped in Arrowhead against their archrivals. Chiefs 31, Raiders 10.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Last week, we once again learned why they call him Fast Willie Parker. Look for plenty of mistakes by the lake from the Browns' run defense, who got burned by a Parker 80-yarder in Cleveland last season. With the offense back to feeding off the run, look for Roethlisberger to go turnover-free again, while MAC QB counterpart Charlie Frye will be very generous with the ball with the Steelers' aggressive 3-4 pass rush in his face. Steelers 23, Browns 13.
St. Louis at Carolina. The week before you play Steve Smith, the game's best receiver, and Julius Peppers, the game's best defender, is a bad one to lose your starting left tackle and your best cornerback. Smith and Keyshawn Johnson should provide some big gains for Jake Delhomme, while without Orlando Pace, Marc Bulger will feel more heat from Peppers and Mike Rucker, which in turn hurts Torry Holt's chance to burn the Panthers' vulnerable secondary. Steven Jackson keeps the Rams in it, but Smith will take them right back out of it. Panthers 24, Rams 17.
Washington at Tampa Bay. Bruce Gradkowski is having a typical up-and-down season as a rookie, but for a change, he's actually the more experienced quarterback in this one. Gradkowski will play well against a shaky 'Skins pass defense by leaning off Carnell Williams' fine running, and Monte Kiffin will throw some wrinkles into the Tampa 2 to throw off Williams' former Auburn teammate Jason Campbell, who will be making his first career NFL start on the road and won't be able to lean on injured back Clinton Portis. Buccaneers 20, Redskins 17.
Detroit at Arizona. This is a great chance for Lions offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, who has plenty of ties to Arizona, to audition to become the head coach there next season. Kevin Jones should run well to open up the passing game, where the Cards' secondary has no answers for Roy Williams. But then again, the Lions' Shaun Rogers-less interior run defense will also struggle against Edgerrin James, and Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will cause more problems downfield. The defenses will be mirages, and the offenses won't be parched. The Lions lose it, but they get closer to winning Brady Quinn. Cardinals 30, Lions 27.
Seattle at San Francisco. Will they or won't they? Regardless if either Shaun Alexander or Matt Hasselbeck or both play, the Seahawks can't take the host 49ers lightly, as both teams come into the action with two-game winning streaks. Led by linebacker Brandon Moore, the Niners' D has been outstanding the past two weeks, so the 'Hawks need to come in balanced no matter who is running and throwing for them. Seattle may need another spark from its special teams to steal it, but with another chance to put away an NFC West foe, it will respond again. Seahawks 24, 49ers 19.
STATS OF THE WEEK
Week 10 straight up: 7-9 (The bubble bursts again)
Week 10 record vs. the spread: 4-12 (This blows, too)
Season record straight up: 75-69 (Gum under the desk)
Season record vs. the spread: 54-90 (The house loves me)
Locks record straight up: 8-2 (No such luck, no such lock)
