Week 11 System Plays

[GM]

:welcome: The systems went 6-6-3 last week. Ho hum.

This week's big play: Cincinnati. 4 systems are on the Bengals. Only one other team comes up twice: Philly. Opposite systems at work on both the SNF and MNF games.

Here they are for this week:

System #2 - Play on a road dog of 9 or more if both teams lost on the road last week (15-8, 65.2% since '90).

Play on: Houston (only if line reaches 9)

System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).

Play on: Cincinnati

System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).

Play on: Philadelphia

System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).

Play on: New England

System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).

Play on: Philadelphia (if line drops to 3)

System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (41-25-1, 62.1% since '98). **updated**

Play on: Atlanta, San Diego, Dallas, Pittsburgh
Note: See a few posts down for some comments showing this system may not be as strong on Atlanta and San Diego. Also the addition of two new systems, #38 and #39).

System #13 - Play on a Monday Night home team whose opponent won it's last game SU @ home (60-34-2, 63.8% since '85).

Play on: San Francisco

System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (39-25-1, 60.9% since '98). **updated**

Play the Under on the games involving: Atlanta, San Diego, Dallas, Pittsburgh

System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (75-45-1 ATS, 62.5% since '92). **updated**

Play on: Oakland

System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (48-30 ATS, 61.5% since '92). **updated**

Play on: Cincinnati

System #23 - Play against an undefeated road favorite, (11-3 ATS, 78.6%) **updated**

Play on: Cincinnati

System #34 - Play on a home dog, if they lost SU as a road favorite last week (15-4-2, 78.9% since '98). **updated**

Play on: Chicago
Note: By my records, Chicago went off as a 1-pt favorite last week, though they were the dog for most of the week. It was at Pick at other books.

System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.

Play on: Cincinnati, Jacksonville

Good luck.

 

[ocelot]

GM,
Appreciate the system posts. But I'm wondering about that System 4. I'm getting 81-70-6 since '87. I got 0-2 for last year. Since your numbers are so different than mine I think I'd better check into my program.

 

[GM]

ocelot -

I would go with your numbers. In past weeks I have mentioned this, but you probably missed it. Some systems say **updated** and others don't. The ones that say **updated** are the ones I am actively tracking, and adding onto the records as we go. The other ones have been in my files for some time and went unmonitored for a while. And I had no way to look up and post the missing games for them, as I didn't know of a database that could either search on all these parameters, or search that far back in time. Only 4 of the 37 systems are ones that I actually uncovered myself.

If you have a program that can research these systems and update their records I would be very interested. I would like to have correct records for all of them, and throw out systems which are no longer effective. Systems quite often stop working after a period of time. In particular I have noticed many of the lower-numbered systems don't seem to be performing overly well (Systems #1 thru #16 roughly, except for #8). If System #4 is turning up a record like that now, then I think it's one of the ones that should be thrown out, since it's been performing at less than a 50% clip from the time of it's last update to present.

Is there a database online where I could look these up? Alternatively I could post all 37 systems here (some of which have not had a single play on them yet this year), and records for all of them could be updated.

Thanks,
Greg

 

[MrChristo]

Don't want to undermine the 'systems' at all, GM, but found a bit of a spot where #8 doesn't really work.

Teams off a BYE who are 7+ favs in a game where the total is >42' are 11-0 SU with an av. win of 19.6!!! (They score an av. of 38.5 ppg!)
That includes both NO and Denver this week.
Just an interesting little 'sub-set' of the bigger picture.

Also they are 10-1 'over'. (unsurprising since teams av. 38.5ppg!)

Best of Luck this week.

 

[GM]

Thanks Mr. C. You're not undermining anything; only improving it!

Interesting that a 41-25 system could have a subset within it going 11-0 the other way! Of course yours is SU, not ATS. But that must mean #8 has been really strong when the "7+ >42?" criteria have not been met.

 

[MrChristo]

Absolutely!

Absolutely!

Sorry about the SU figures....
It's only 6-5 ATS....BUT....the lowest margin of victory is 7 points!

The average line is -12.5.

day week season team opp site score line total
SUN 4 1998 SF ATL H 31-20 -11' 46'
SUN 7 1998 MIN WAS H 41-7 -13 44'
SUN 8 1998 DEN JAC H 37-24 -8 48'
SUN 12 1999 MIN SD H 35-27 -14 44'
SUN 7 2000 STL ATL H 45-29 - 17' 58
SUN 10 2001 STL CAR H 48-14 -19' 47'
SUN 4 2002 RAI TEN H 52-25 -7 44
SUN 5 2002 IND CIN H 28-21 -13' 43'
MON 6 2003 STL ATL H 36-0 -10' 45'
SUN 8 2003 IND TEX H 30-21 -13 42'
SUN 10 2003 KC CLE H 41-20 -10 43'
SUN 11 2003 NO ATL H -8' 43'
SUN 11 2003 DEN SD H -8' 43'


(Hope that shows up ok.) [It doesn't. Sorry!]

As you can (hopefully!) see now...some BIG fav's....but all have one thing in common...Lowest score has been 28 by Indi in 2002!!
Also the only 'under' was Atlanta's shut-out in Wk 6!!!
3 winners already this season.....Can't really see the Falcon's or Charger's Defense(s) bucking the 'trend' this week!!

 

[GM]

Wow, that's pretty impressive. Thanks for adding this.

These are going to be System #38 and System #39.

 

[GM]

System #38 - Play on a moneyline home favorite coming off a bye when they are favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (11-0 SU, 100% since '98. 6-5 ATS). **updated**

Play on: Denver, New Orleans

System #39 - Play the Over when the home team is coming off a bye, is favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (10-1 Over, 90.9% since '98). **updated**

Play the Over on: SD/Den, Atl/NO

 

[ocelot]

GM,

I have my own data going back to 1987. I can update your system records. I have written my own program to search this database; however, it is not able to look at systems that have byes as a criteria.

 

[ocelot]

GM, also I must note that my database is based on lines taken LATE in the week (Fridays or Saturdays). Also there are other criteria I don't have capability to look at such as are in your #34 and #36. Also have no ability to look at totals systems.

 

[GM]

Well, any help you can offer will be welcomed ocelot. I also grade these on late lines. I try to take note of the lines in the last 15 minutes before kickoff, when I can.

 

[ocelot]

Okay then...

Okay then...

GM,

Here is what I get for those systems at the top of this thread that I can crunch: (NOTE: This season's games NOT included)

System #2 : 20-11-0 (64.5%) since '90

System #3 : 117-75-5 (60.9%) since '90

System #4 : 71-61-6 (53.8%) since '89

System #5 : 27-24-2 (52.9%) since '89

System #7 : 69-51-11 (57.5%) since '91

System #13 : 54-44-5 (55.1%) since '87

System #20 : 80-45-2 (64.0%) since '92

System #21 : 66-42-2 (61.1%) since '92

Hope this helps.

 

[GM]

Hey ocelot,

Thanks for the #'s, much appreciated. Now I wish I had kept track separately of how each system has done this year. :lol: On the ones that say **updated** I've been adding to the record as we go along, but I didn't actually keep track separately as well, so I don't know a particular system's record for this year. I probably have a backup file somewhere that shows all the systems and their records as they were before this season started, so I should be able to piece it together.

As I suspected, those lower-numbered ones don't look quite as good. I had a feeling they were less-effective. But that's ok. If a system starts performing poorly I want to know and retire it.

I am going to post all of the systems in a separate thread (titled "ocelot", probably). Posting it separately just so it doesn't bog down this thread. If you have the chance, can you run through whichever ones you are able to run on your database and give me an idea of the numbers? A good number of these systems have not had any plays at all this year. It seems some of these situations (like having a home dog getting more than a TD) just don't come up anymore. :shrug:

Thanks again!
Greg

 

[ocelot]

Will do what I can GM.

 

[rc conditioner]

good luck this weekend!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL this week and great work!

HORNS

 

[Allnet]

Quick review this a.m. looks something like 13-3 , excluding MNF.
I am glad I had my print out with me when I called my plays in. Once again, too damn busy to cap anything this week. Thanks again for the system plays. 2nd time this has happened and 2nd time big day on the grid iron.