4-1 on sides last week and a split on the parlays boost my profit a lot.
11-7-1 +3.57u sides
1-1 +1.6u parlays
I had hardly any time this week. going to take it easy unless something is really obvious. using mostly last weeks stats for the teams.
Jets 23-29-22-22 o 27-30-24-32
@Miami 24-27-26-15 o 27-16-3-30
I want to bet on miami until they win a game because of the perception that they are the worst team in the league. Both these teams have played really tough schedules. Miami -3 no play.
Chargers 8-21-17-17 o 11-21-23-21
@Chiefs 30-30-17-31 10-15-18-17
I hate the chargers. I don't know why they keep ranking so high on DVOA. They don't look any better than the chiefs from a yardage point of view. They probably run it all day on this poor KC run defense, but KC gets some stuff done too. KC should be -3. HAHA SD favored by a TD in Arrowhead. WTF. KC +245 all the way. that's absurd. Now I'll look like a genius when this hits.
Jaguars 16-17-26-3 8-23-27-15
@Colts 3-3-6-9 o 6-3-2-16 d
Yay, this matchup again. Last time I correctly sided with the colts despite the forum and all the trends supporting the Jags. Harrison out again. They should be -6 here. No play
49ers 32-32-32-26 o 22-24-24-24
@Panthers 27-25-28-14 o 18-18-16-20
Panthers should be -6. they are -3 so i'm missing something. Panthers -3 -108
Bills 27-31-28-17 o 9-28-26-20
@Redskins 18-20-24-8 o 19-12-22-11
skins way ahead at running the ball and stopping the run. Buffalo with #1 toughest schedule, and WAS at #2. Skins -6 no play.
Texans 11-9-8-7-23 o 26-18-13-24
@Titans 17-22-29-4 o 7-2-7-4
not really sure what has happened to the titans. I'll stay away from this game till I figure it out.
ATL @ STL
STL should be like -4 no play.
Seahawks 13-12-8-21 o 2-11-20-10
@Eagles 17-6-12-12 o 9-13-22-7
So I was convinced last week that McNabb is not a HOF quarterback, he just has good stats cause his team is good. The Feeley Detmer Garcia magic is hard to explain away. Eagles line is about right at -3 no play.
Lions 7-14-9-29 offense 24-26-30-8 defense
@Vikings 20-16-31-1 o 17-29-32-3
Lions pass rush is terrible, they get no pressure at all. Everyone is all worked up about Peterson coming back. Normally I would say he isn't worth that much, but in line with bigfootballfan's post a couple weeks ago, he exploits bad run defenses to inflate his stats. Not sure why he only got 66 yards last time around. Kitna will have success throwing, but this is the new, suckier detroit, so nothing spectacular. 70% of squares betting on the Detroit side of the moneyline and the pinnacle ml looks heavy on Viks to me so I'm getting on the sharp side. MIN -200
So for the early games I have
KC ml +245
CAR -3 -108
MIN ml -200
11-7-1 +3.57u sides
1-1 +1.6u parlays
I had hardly any time this week. going to take it easy unless something is really obvious. using mostly last weeks stats for the teams.
Jets 23-29-22-22 o 27-30-24-32
@Miami 24-27-26-15 o 27-16-3-30
I want to bet on miami until they win a game because of the perception that they are the worst team in the league. Both these teams have played really tough schedules. Miami -3 no play.
Chargers 8-21-17-17 o 11-21-23-21
@Chiefs 30-30-17-31 10-15-18-17
I hate the chargers. I don't know why they keep ranking so high on DVOA. They don't look any better than the chiefs from a yardage point of view. They probably run it all day on this poor KC run defense, but KC gets some stuff done too. KC should be -3. HAHA SD favored by a TD in Arrowhead. WTF. KC +245 all the way. that's absurd. Now I'll look like a genius when this hits.
Jaguars 16-17-26-3 8-23-27-15
@Colts 3-3-6-9 o 6-3-2-16 d
Yay, this matchup again. Last time I correctly sided with the colts despite the forum and all the trends supporting the Jags. Harrison out again. They should be -6 here. No play
49ers 32-32-32-26 o 22-24-24-24
@Panthers 27-25-28-14 o 18-18-16-20
Panthers should be -6. they are -3 so i'm missing something. Panthers -3 -108
Bills 27-31-28-17 o 9-28-26-20
@Redskins 18-20-24-8 o 19-12-22-11
skins way ahead at running the ball and stopping the run. Buffalo with #1 toughest schedule, and WAS at #2. Skins -6 no play.
Texans 11-9-8-7-23 o 26-18-13-24
@Titans 17-22-29-4 o 7-2-7-4
not really sure what has happened to the titans. I'll stay away from this game till I figure it out.
ATL @ STL
STL should be like -4 no play.
Seahawks 13-12-8-21 o 2-11-20-10
@Eagles 17-6-12-12 o 9-13-22-7
So I was convinced last week that McNabb is not a HOF quarterback, he just has good stats cause his team is good. The Feeley Detmer Garcia magic is hard to explain away. Eagles line is about right at -3 no play.
Lions 7-14-9-29 offense 24-26-30-8 defense
@Vikings 20-16-31-1 o 17-29-32-3
Lions pass rush is terrible, they get no pressure at all. Everyone is all worked up about Peterson coming back. Normally I would say he isn't worth that much, but in line with bigfootballfan's post a couple weeks ago, he exploits bad run defenses to inflate his stats. Not sure why he only got 66 yards last time around. Kitna will have success throwing, but this is the new, suckier detroit, so nothing spectacular. 70% of squares betting on the Detroit side of the moneyline and the pinnacle ml looks heavy on Viks to me so I'm getting on the sharp side. MIN -200
So for the early games I have
KC ml +245
CAR -3 -108
MIN ml -200
