WeEk 14 ChAmPiOnShIp WeEk

[WildBillPicks7]

First games are Friday night with MAC & PAC.

Bama early fav 22, LY they beat Fla in Championship by 14 as 16 1/2 pt favs.

WAC I mean Mountain West, San Diego St lost to Wyoming @ Laramie by 1 as 7 1/2 to 10 pt favs, Wyoming and S D State off double digit beat downs on Saturday night feature two of the best RBs in the country.

W Kentucky lost @ La Tech by 3 this year and won by 3 LY at home in regular season, LT off rd beat to Southern Miss, WK rolled Marshall's herd by 54 pts last night.

Bedlam, road team has covered the last 6 in this series, Sooners rolled in Stillwater LY 58-23.

Ohio got shallacked by W Michigan LY 49-14 @ Western.

I'll have my plays up sometime Tuesday or early Wednesday.

GLE!!


1*............132-130-5, -11.0
3*............50-42-2, +11.4
5*............37-26, +47.0
Teasers.....1-3-1, -4.5
MoneyLine...3-6, +7.44
1st Half........
2nd Half.......18-10-1, +27.55
Sides...........135-117-6
Totals..........82-80-1
Round Robins, +.33
Total of Yr....Over 58 AF/NM, 10/15/16, WINNER, NM 45 AF 40, +10.0
Game of Yr...Arkansas +8, 10/15/16, WINNER, ARK 34 Ole MISS 30, +10.0
WON.....241......LOSS....216......PUSH....9......UNITS...+98.22

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Championship week, all plays 1 unit unless noted:

I may upgrade if the lines move more favorably for me, but this is what I've got in so far:

Ohio +19 1/2 (1 unit) - W Michigan will face one of the better "D"'s in the MAC this season and Ohio smartin from LY beat down of 49-14 to WM @ WM. This one at Ford Field, indoor dome will help speed the game up a bit and both teams can run, that's their strength, WM does feature a future NFL caliber WR in Davis, but Ohio has some NFL caliber "D" players who'll be pumped vs Broncos. This line should have opened much higher than -18 and has steamed up to -19 1/2, I'll take Solich's scrubs to cover that number on a backdoor cover.

Baylor +17 1/2 (1 unit) - Bears are in a bowl but the admin may decide against them playing in one with all the off-field stuff still being settled and Bears were/are to name their new HC, which was said to be SMU HC Chad Morris. W Virginia's last game of the year at home, senior day, could be some weather here, but I don't see WV "D" stopping Baylor's "O". I have WV winning by 5 to 11 pts including error margin.

Over 55 1/2 Troy/Ga Southern (3 units) - Troy's locked up a bowl game, Ga Southern underperformed much of the season and they can score some pts at 26 ppg, Troy gives up at least 21 ppg, this screams 35-28!!

ULL -6 1/2 (1 unit) - ULL needs a "W" for a bowl possibility at 5-6 on the year, ULM's senior day, they've given up 40 ppg this year and want to play spoiler, I just don't think they have the "D" to stop ULL.

Oklahoma St +11 1/2 (1 unit) - Rd Team has been money in this series, Pokes with revenge on their minds and a shot to have the best Big12 record on the season with a SU win @ Norman.

Over 78 Ok St/Okla (1 unit)

Over 53 Ark St/Texas St (1 unit)

Over 53 G St/Idaho (1 unit) - Spuds last home game for seniors and looks like they're going bowling.

Over 81 LT/WK (1 unit) - All out war to win the CUSA, LT beat WK already by 3 at LT this year, LT off ass whooping to S Miss and they'll come to play in Bowling Green this week.

LT +10 (1 unit) - 6-7 pt game max.

Over 41 Fla/Ala (5 units) - Gators off rd loss @ Tallahassee now venture to Atlanta Dome to face Crimson Tide who've only been tested really by LSU this season, Fla "D" has been hot and cold and if not for offensive turnovers, they may have won a few on the rd in the SEC, Bama just too much depth here and special teams and "D" that's opportunistic, I see Bama scoring at least 35 pts and probably will give up a touch to Gators, so 35-7 = 42 pts!!

Penn St +1 1/2 (3 units) - Nittany lions have been on a long roll folks, Wisconsin down to BU QB, check status on Hornibrook for Badgers, PSU turned it up in the 2H vs Sparty on Saturday and now small rd dogs in a neutral site at Peyton Manning Stadium LOL, well it might as well be named that as many wins at Peyton had there for the Colts, I can see Penn State winning this one SU by at least 3 pts and their QB has been gaining confidence which is scary. Penn St has average 39 ppg on the rd this season while Wisky has been scoring 23 ppg but allowing only 12 ppg, including a narrow loss at Michigan.

Over 47 P St/Wisky (1 unit)

Lines will change by game time for all these games, so stay tuned.

GLE!!

 

[#cruncher]

Championship week, all plays 1 unit unless noted:

I may upgrade if the lines move more favorably for me, but this is what I've got in so far:

Ohio +19 1/2 (1 unit) - W Michigan will face one of the better "D"'s in the MAC this season and Ohio smartin from LY beat down of 49-14 to WM @ WM. This one at Ford Field, indoor dome will help speed the game up a bit and both teams can run, that's their strength, WM does feature a future NFL caliber WR in Davis, but Ohio has some NFL caliber "D" players who'll be pumped vs Broncos. This line should have opened much higher than -18 and has steamed up to -19 1/2, I'll take Solich's scrubs to cover that number on a backdoor cover.

Baylor +17 1/2 (1 unit) - Bears are in a bowl but the admin may decide against them playing in one with all the off-field stuff still being settled and Bears were/are to name their new HC, which was said to be SMU HC Chad Morris. W Virginia's last game of the year at home, senior day, could be some weather here, but I don't see WV "D" stopping Baylor's "O". I have WV winning by 5 to 11 pts including error margin.

Over 55 1/2 Troy/Ga Southern (3 units) - Troy's locked up a bowl game, Ga Southern underperformed much of the season and they can score some pts at 26 ppg, Troy gives up at least 21 ppg, this screams 35-28!!

ULL -6 1/2 (1 unit) - ULL needs a "W" for a bowl possibility at 5-6 on the year, ULM's senior day, they've given up 40 ppg this year and want to play spoiler, I just don't think they have the "D" to stop ULL.

Oklahoma St +11 1/2 (1 unit) - Rd Team has been money in this series, Pokes with revenge on their minds and a shot to have the best Big12 record on the season with a SU win @ Norman.

Over 78 Ok St/Okla (1 unit)

Over 53 Ark St/Texas St (1 unit)

Over 53 G St/Idaho (1 unit) - Spuds last home game for seniors and looks like they're going bowling.

Over 81 LT/WK (1 unit) - All out war to win the CUSA, LT beat WK already by 3 at LT this year, LT off ass whooping to S Miss and they'll come to play in Bowling Green this week.

LT +10 (1 unit) - 6-7 pt game max.

Over 41 Fla/Ala (5 units) - Gators off rd loss @ Tallahassee now venture to Atlanta Dome to face Crimson Tide who've only been tested really by LSU this season, Fla "D" has been hot and cold and if not for offensive turnovers, they may have won a few on the rd in the SEC, Bama just too much depth here and special teams and "D" that's opportunistic, I see Bama scoring at least 35 pts and probably will give up a touch to Gators, so 35-7 = 42 pts!!

Penn St +1 1/2 (3 units) - Nittany lions have been on a long roll folks, Wisconsin down to BU QB, check status on Hornibrook for Badgers, PSU turned it up in the 2H vs Sparty on Saturday and now small rd dogs in a neutral site at Peyton Manning Stadium LOL, well it might as well be named that as many wins at Peyton had there for the Colts, I can see Penn State winning this one SU by at least 3 pts and their QB has been gaining confidence which is scary. Penn St has average 39 ppg on the rd this season while Wisky has been scoring 23 ppg but allowing only 12 ppg, including a narrow loss at Michigan.

Over 47 P St/Wisky (1 unit)

Lines will change by game time for all these games, so stay tuned.

GLE!!

GL WB, your record says you've worked really hard and it shows!

 

[BUCKY1]

Houston and Hornibrook were even throughout tryouts. Houston started versus LSU early in the year and is a 5th year senior. The offense actually has better flow and moves the ball with him in there. So IMO its better he's in there. Knock on him is he has the 'gunslinger' mentality and makes questionable decisions. Belief here is Chryst started Hornibrook cuz he's the future QB. Whatever the reason, he's pushed the right buttons so far. GL:toast:

 

[#cruncher]

Houston and Hornibrook were even throughout tryouts. Houston started versus LSU early in the year and is a 5th year senior. The offense actually has better flow and moves the ball with him in there. So IMO its better he's in there. Knock on him is he has the 'gunslinger' mentality and makes questionable decisions. Belief here is Chryst started Hornibrook cuz he's the future QB. Whatever the reason, he's pushed the right buttons so far. GL:toast:

That's nice to know, thanks!

 

[hawkeye]

The thing that concerns me about Penn St is lack of playmakers and when they played Oh St and Mich--they did very little on off? gl

 

[layinwood]

I agree with Cruncher on your hard work. Very solid contributor that gives a lot of info and time to the forum. Congrats on a great year!

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks Cruncher & Layinwood!!

GL this week!!

No upgrades for this week.

Looking at Wyoming & Arkansas St a little bit and total in Clem/Va Tech which is being played in Florida.

 

[Punch23]

Washington -7?


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[WildBillPicks7]

Washington -7?


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That one's being played at Levi Stadium, home of the Niners, lots of Californians on Buffalo squad and they have a strong track record of covering in California in late season/bowl play. That's a pick'em game for me.

I may take the total over, it's flip flopping between 59 and 57 1/2 pts.

 

[hedgehog]

Great work WB, VERY SOLID this season. Good luck this week :0008

 

[shbtopdog]

Nice Job this year WB

When I was looking at the SEC CHampionship game my analysis is nearly spot on with your thinking.
In Floridas 3 losses they gave up 33 pts a game on average. I think Bama averages about 38 a game. I think Alabama may cover the total themselves but not unrealistic to think they give up a td late when the game is out of hand and all but over.
I feel like laying the 24 probably is pretty sound also.

Good luck with your plays.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks Hedgey and TopDog!!

GL this week as well.

ShpTopDog, if Bama TT is <31 pts, I'd play that, as far as laying 24? That line got pounded when it was -22 to -21 1/2 then steamed back up to 24 and I have a feeling the person who pounded it down to -21 1/2 is going to wait again and hit it if it climbs to -24 1/2.

I have Bama winning by 19 in one formula and 28 in another, total pts 49 in one formula and 44 in the other, Dome plays fast and favors the team that passes the best as well and it's a kickers paradise with a balanced air flow.

Bama 40 Fla 13

Penn St was +2 1/2 at open down to +1 1/2 now back to +2 1/2 to +3 depending on which house you look at.

Later!!

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Championship week, all plays 1 unit unless noted:

I may upgrade if the lines move more favorably for me, but this is what I've got in so far:

OVER 56 COL/WASH (3 units)

Washington -7 (5 units)[- defense difference here for Buffs however U Wash faced a tough "D" in USC and Buffs secondary very comparable speed wise and they don't allow passes more than 10 yds downfield very often, 27% completion rate, Buffs scrambling/running QB and special teams should make a difference, so why are the Huskies favored by 7 to 8 pts? Buffs have played 3 tough games L3 weeks, same with U Dub, however, Browning's ability to throw deep may just eek out a 10 pt win at 49er stadium, errrr, Levi Strauss jeans, errrr, Levi Stadium in Santa Cruz.

Ohio +19 1/2 (1 unit) - W Michigan will face one of the better "D"'s in the MAC this season and Ohio smartin from LY beat down of 49-14 to WM @ WM. This one at Ford Field, indoor dome will help speed the game up a bit and both teams can run, that's their strength, WM does feature a future NFL caliber WR in Davis, but Ohio has some NFL caliber "D" players who'll be pumped vs Broncos. This line should have opened much higher than -18 and has steamed up to -19 1/2, I'll take Solich's scrubs to cover that number on a backdoor cover.

Baylor +17 1/2 (1 unit) - Bears are in a bowl but the admin may decide against them playing in one with all the off-field stuff still being settled and Bears were/are to name their new HC, which was said to be SMU HC Chad Morris. W Virginia's last game of the year at home, senior day, could be some weather here, but I don't see WV "D" stopping Baylor's "O". I have WV winning by 5 to 11 pts including error margin.

Over 55 1/2 Troy/Ga Southern (3 units) - Troy's locked up a bowl game, Ga Southern underperformed much of the season and they can score some pts at 26 ppg, Troy gives up at least 21 ppg, this screams 35-28!!

ULL -6 1/2 (1 unit) - ULL needs a "W" for a bowl possibility at 5-6 on the year, ULM's senior day, they've given up 40 ppg this year and want to play spoiler, I just don't think they have the "D" to stop ULL.

Oklahoma St +11 1/2 (1 unit) - Rd Team has been money in this series, Pokes with revenge on their minds and a shot to have the best Big12 record on the season with a SU win @ Norman.

Over 78 Ok St/Okla (1 unit)

Over 53 Ark St/Texas St (1 unit)

Over 53 G St/Idaho (1 unit) - Spuds last home game for seniors and looks like they're going bowling.

Over 81 LT/WK (1 unit) - All out war to win the CUSA, LT beat WK already by 3 at LT this year, LT off ass whooping to S Miss and they'll come to play in Bowling Green this week.

LT +10 (1 unit) - 6-7 pt game max.

Over 41 Fla/Ala (5 units) - Gators off rd loss @ Tallahassee now venture to Atlanta Dome to face Crimson Tide who've only been tested really by LSU this season, Fla "D" has been hot and cold and if not for offensive turnovers, they may have won a few on the rd in the SEC, Bama just too much depth here and special teams and "D" that's opportunistic, I see Bama scoring at least 35 pts and probably will give up a touch to Gators, so 35-7 = 42 pts!!

Penn St +1 1/2 (3 units) add 2 units @ +2 1/2 now= 5 unit play - Nittany lions have been on a long roll folks, Wisconsin down to BU QB, check status on Hornibrook for Badgers, PSU turned it up in the 2H vs Sparty on Saturday and now small rd dogs in a neutral site at Peyton Manning Stadium LOL, well it might as well be named that as many wins at Peyton had there for the Colts, I can see Penn State winning this one SU by at least 3 pts and their QB has been gaining confidence which is scary. Penn St has average 39 ppg on the rd this season while Wisky has been scoring 23 ppg but allowing only 12 ppg, including a narrow loss at Michigan.

Over 47 P St/Wisky (1 unit)

Over 57 Va Tech/Clemson (1 unit)


Florida +24 1/2 (3 units) - feel gators have enough ammo to stick with Bama for the game, turnovers will be the difference, Florida doesn't make many and Bama has feasted on them the entire season, this is a championship game and only line that is more than 10 pts in the Championship weekend, other than the MAC.

Lines will change by game time for all these games, so stay tuned.

GLE!!

 

[Punch23]

Why the upgrade to 5 units for huskies? It seems your write predicts a close game? GL!


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[WildBillPicks7]

Why the upgrade to 5 units for huskies? It seems your write predicts a close game? GL!


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Good question Punch main reason is dB for Colorado last week got tested strongly at home in their last game and I believe the Huskies passing game will get to them the second half husky should win by 10 or more.

 

[Punch23]

Thanks ! Bama country rolling strong tomorrow. Bama 42-7 final. My book won't let me parlay same game ! Wtf?!!?


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[mrcleantx]

Good question Punch main reason is dB for Colorado last week got tested strongly at home in their last game and I believe the Huskies passing game will get to them the second half husky should win by 10 or more.

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[WildBillPicks7]

Thanks ! Bama country rolling strong tomorrow. Bama 42-7 final. My book won't let me parlay same game ! Wtf?!!?


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All my action is circled so straight plays only with my 2 locals I use and max limit as well, $550 per game, fortunately I have 2 other outs off-shore which haven't restricted me, but many times once I put my plays in with $ amounts and send, they come back with updated lines, sometimes this happens 4 or 5 times in a row trying to send in or I have to buy my line down or up to where I originally played it.

Bama's getting a lot of TV love this week and Florida is just quietly waiting, they have nothing to lose, no playoff talk for them and they lost LY as big dogs, Appleby has been sharp this week and taking more shot gun snaps which may give him some time to pass without Allen or someone else hanging on his neck like FSU did last week with Walker having a great NFL highlight film game for the Noles. My #'s come out to ALA 35 FLA 14, 21 pts, got the line @ 24 1/2, bought the hook so laying -120 on it.

One stat that bothers me taking Bama laying the wood is the # of teams they played ranked in the Top 10 this year which is zero if you include this weeks national rankings. Trevor Matich made a few points about that as did Booger McFart-land as well. Should be an interesting viewer ship tomorrow. GL PUNCH!!

:0008

 

[WildBillPicks7]

W Michigan Love

W Michigan Love

Lots of love for the Bronco's tonight yet the public still heavy on them with 2 1/2 pt drop, heavy hitter dropped the line big time, same person who moves the Vegas line typically right before game times on Saturday/Sunday.

WM has not faced a "D" like Ohio's this year, that's Ohio's only chance, so long as they can run and throw short passes vs WM front as well.

More money on the Money line for Ohio than on the side, something fishy there.

GL on whatever ya'll are playing.

71% of bets on Over Washington/Colorado, line has dropped from 58 to 54 and more, decent winds expected.

GL!!