The Jaguars are 2-2 their past four against the Colts and have held Indy to 24 points or less five straight times.
But the Jaguars aren?t going to hand Indy its first loss of the season, so why open Jacksonville at just +7 1/2?
?I thought [Jags] +10,? said oddsmaker Cesar Robaina, a linesmaker for Caliente sportsbooks in Mexico. ?I don?t think the Jaguars have much of a chance with David Garrard in there. I know he?s tough and gritty, but he?s not the quarterback who can end the Colts? streak.
?The books will need Jacksonville for sure Sunday," he added. "On Sunday this game will be -9 or -9 ?. It?s the only way it can go. So why not just put it up high??
Good question.
You?d think bookmakers would be anxious to inflate public favorites since NFL favorites are hitting at nearly 60 percent this season.
Bookies are however, inflating the lines for three Sunday afternoon matchups featuring superior teams at home against bad clubs. The Chargers are -14 against the Dolphins, the Broncos are -14 against the Ravens and the Seahawks figure to be 15 ? or 16 against the 49ers.
You know which side the public is going to be on in these games too. Heading into Monday night, the Chargers, Broncos and Seahawks were a combined 22-11-2 (66 percent) against the spread. The Dolphins, Ravens and 49ers meanwhile, are a combined 13-23 (36 percent) against the number.
?They?re inflated a bit,? said Robaina about the Chargers, Broncos and Seahawks. ?If this were Week 3 or Week 4, they might be -11 ? or -12. We?d be giving them [underdogs] the benefit of the doubt to keep the wise guys at bay.
?But now it?s to the point with Baltimore, Miami and San Francisco that they all are out of the race and playing for pride," he added. "You have to figure out which ones are still going to play tough. So the numbers naturally have to be inflated this time of year because you have dead teams.?
Bookmakers aren`t the only one having a rough NFL season either. Some professional bettors are suffering through their worst year.
?A lot of sharps have been hurt so bad they?re saying `screw this`,? said Steve Fezzik, a professional gambler who said he`s always done well betting pro football until this season.
There`s still enough wise guys out there to keep bookmaker from inflating too many numbers though.
Professional gamblers aren?t reluctant either to back a favorite, if they believe the number is too short.
That was the case with three games this week at Pinnacle, an Internet sportsbook. Early money arrived for the Panthers against the Buccaneers, Steelers against the Bears and Redskins against the Cardinals.
?Carolina opened -5 and all the early money has been on Carolina, including a bit of sharp money,? said a Pinnacle spokesperson. ?After taking nearly eight times as many bets on Carolina, the line moved to -5 ?, where it has settled for the time being.
?The Steelers opened as 4-point favorites and sharp action came in early on Pittsburgh pushing the line to 4 ?. We do have some buyback on the Bears, but the majority of the volume has come in on Pittsburgh.
?We opened the Redskins at -3 (minus $1.12 juice) and took immediate sharp action on Washington. We wrote 20 straight bets on the Redskins before getting the first buyback on the Cardinals. There was some two-way action while the line was -3/minus $1.24, but we received additional Redskins money that pushed the line to 3 ?.?
One favorite sharp bettors probably won?t be on this week are the Bengals, who are currently a 12 or 12 ?-point home favorite to the Browns. Robaina?s opening number on the Bengals was -11 ?.
?You could have a Bengals letdown after they beat the Steelers,? Robaina said. ?It?s also an in-state rivalry. So I didn?t want to go crazy with a high number. But it probably will close [Cinci -13]. You?re starting to see it already.?
So those looking to take the Browns have no reason to be anxious about putting their bet down now.
?I?ve been backing underdogs the past three weeks and it?s been a colossal mistake,? Fezzik said. ?My numbers said the lines were inflated, but obviously I was wrong. Having said that I think it would be a mistake not to play ?dogs like Cleveland. The Browns are the clear right side.?
But the Jaguars aren?t going to hand Indy its first loss of the season, so why open Jacksonville at just +7 1/2?
?I thought [Jags] +10,? said oddsmaker Cesar Robaina, a linesmaker for Caliente sportsbooks in Mexico. ?I don?t think the Jaguars have much of a chance with David Garrard in there. I know he?s tough and gritty, but he?s not the quarterback who can end the Colts? streak.
?The books will need Jacksonville for sure Sunday," he added. "On Sunday this game will be -9 or -9 ?. It?s the only way it can go. So why not just put it up high??
Good question.
You?d think bookmakers would be anxious to inflate public favorites since NFL favorites are hitting at nearly 60 percent this season.
Bookies are however, inflating the lines for three Sunday afternoon matchups featuring superior teams at home against bad clubs. The Chargers are -14 against the Dolphins, the Broncos are -14 against the Ravens and the Seahawks figure to be 15 ? or 16 against the 49ers.
You know which side the public is going to be on in these games too. Heading into Monday night, the Chargers, Broncos and Seahawks were a combined 22-11-2 (66 percent) against the spread. The Dolphins, Ravens and 49ers meanwhile, are a combined 13-23 (36 percent) against the number.
?They?re inflated a bit,? said Robaina about the Chargers, Broncos and Seahawks. ?If this were Week 3 or Week 4, they might be -11 ? or -12. We?d be giving them [underdogs] the benefit of the doubt to keep the wise guys at bay.
?But now it?s to the point with Baltimore, Miami and San Francisco that they all are out of the race and playing for pride," he added. "You have to figure out which ones are still going to play tough. So the numbers naturally have to be inflated this time of year because you have dead teams.?
Bookmakers aren`t the only one having a rough NFL season either. Some professional bettors are suffering through their worst year.
?A lot of sharps have been hurt so bad they?re saying `screw this`,? said Steve Fezzik, a professional gambler who said he`s always done well betting pro football until this season.
There`s still enough wise guys out there to keep bookmaker from inflating too many numbers though.
Professional gamblers aren?t reluctant either to back a favorite, if they believe the number is too short.
That was the case with three games this week at Pinnacle, an Internet sportsbook. Early money arrived for the Panthers against the Buccaneers, Steelers against the Bears and Redskins against the Cardinals.
?Carolina opened -5 and all the early money has been on Carolina, including a bit of sharp money,? said a Pinnacle spokesperson. ?After taking nearly eight times as many bets on Carolina, the line moved to -5 ?, where it has settled for the time being.
?The Steelers opened as 4-point favorites and sharp action came in early on Pittsburgh pushing the line to 4 ?. We do have some buyback on the Bears, but the majority of the volume has come in on Pittsburgh.
?We opened the Redskins at -3 (minus $1.12 juice) and took immediate sharp action on Washington. We wrote 20 straight bets on the Redskins before getting the first buyback on the Cardinals. There was some two-way action while the line was -3/minus $1.24, but we received additional Redskins money that pushed the line to 3 ?.?
One favorite sharp bettors probably won?t be on this week are the Bengals, who are currently a 12 or 12 ?-point home favorite to the Browns. Robaina?s opening number on the Bengals was -11 ?.
?You could have a Bengals letdown after they beat the Steelers,? Robaina said. ?It?s also an in-state rivalry. So I didn?t want to go crazy with a high number. But it probably will close [Cinci -13]. You?re starting to see it already.?
So those looking to take the Browns have no reason to be anxious about putting their bet down now.
?I?ve been backing underdogs the past three weeks and it?s been a colossal mistake,? Fezzik said. ?My numbers said the lines were inflated, but obviously I was wrong. Having said that I think it would be a mistake not to play ?dogs like Cleveland. The Browns are the clear right side.?
