2025 NFL: 167-300-11 -5247.50
recency bias: week 17: 24-39-3 +366.71
First plus turned in several weeks. Hoping for a miracle closer before the playoffs start. Only 13 games available there but I hope to continue pushing my luck with the player props, which have sure been working better than my totals, teasers, and side parlays.
Buccaneers -2.5 -120 120/100
1H 49ers +114 100/114
49ers +124 100/124
---
packers +10 -118 118/100
packers +340 50/170
Texans -10 -109 218/200
Bengals -7 -125 200/160
1H Patriots -6.5 -115 115/100
Bears -3 +101 100/101
=1121(9)
P2 Buccaneers -144 / 49ers +2 +104 <+245> 50/122.83
P2 1H Texans -6.5 -105 / 1H Bengals -4.5 -110 <+272> 50/136.36
P2 Bills -6.5 -140 / Rams -6.5 -169 <+172> 60/103.72
=160(3)
T2/6 Bengals -1.5 / Bills -2 -130 65/50
T2/6 Bengals -1.5 / Broncos -6.5 / Patriots -5.5 +160 50/80
T2/6 Bills -2 / Patriots -5.5 -130 65/50
T2/6 Broncos -6.5 / Rams -2.5 -130 65/50
=245(4)
Buccaneers Mike Evans anytime TD +165 70/115.50
Buccaneers Baker Mayfield anytime TD scorer +600 25/150
Panthers Rico Dowdle 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +650 40/260
49ers Jauan Jennings anytime TD +190 60/114
49ers Kyle Juszczyk anytime TD +875 20/175
---
P2 Panthers Rico Dowdle anytime TD +123 /
/ Seahawks Zach Charbonnet anytime TD +122 <+395> 40/158.02
P2 Panthers Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD +165 /
/ Falcons Bijan Robinson ov129.5 rush+rec yards -115 <+395> 40/158.17
P2 Texans Dalton Schultz anytime TD +250 /
/ Bears Colston Loveland anytime TD +150 <+775> 40/310
P2 Bengals Chase Brown ov61.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Falcons Bijan Robinson ov83.5 rushing yards -115 <+249> 50/124.76
P2 Bengals Chase Brown ov83.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Saints Juwan Johnson ov61.5 receiving yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Saints Tyler Shough ov231.5 passing yards -115 /
/ Bears Caleb Williams ov234.5 passing yards -115 <+249> 50/124.76
P2 Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov73.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov63.5 rushing + receiving yards -110 <+252> 50/126.35
P2 Bears Colston Loveland ov47.5 receiving yards -118 /
/ Ravens Derrick Henry ov88.5 rushing yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
=585(13)
--Panthers Rico Dowdle just needs to show up for his 7 needed scrimmage yards to reach 1350 which cashes him a big million bonus. Apparently needing a single TD, as well, to collect another 250,000.
--49ers Christian McCaffrey not touched yet--concerned about his massive usage last game as well as Seahawks stellar run D--but I've seen ov18.5 rush attempts -120 (done 5 straight), ov68.5 rush yards -115 (done 3 straight & 5 of last 6), and ov115.5 rush+receiving yards -115 (done in 2 straight & 10 of 16 games overall)
--Seahawks Zach Charbonnet ov43.5 rushing -118 (done in 3 of past 5 with a season-high 110 in last)
--Seahawks Kenneth Walker ov46.5 rushing -115 (done in 2 straight and 6 of past 8)
=====
--Bengals Chase Brown needs 53 rush yards for 1000 (closed with 990 last year)
--*Bengals Chase Brown ov61.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 2 straight, 5 of past 7, and 7 of past 10)
--**Bengals Chase Brown ov83.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 (done in 3 straight and 9 of past 10)
----Chase Brown apparently over an early-week illness, so says the currents (practiced Friday)
--also tempted by Bengals ov26.5 -120 (done in 4 of their past 5; Browns allowed 27+ in 5 of 7 road games) but I'm on the spread and figure that 20 by Browns might be a stretch
--Saints top receiver Chris Olave ruled out so I expect Juwan Johnson to be a bigger factor
--Saints Tyler Shough ov231.5 passing yards -115 (done in 3 straight and 6 of past 7); maybe crazy with the top receiver out but I figure he will be throwing often, and his completion percentage has been solid
--Falcons Bijan Robinson needs 255 yards in Week 18 vs. the Saints to break Chris Johnson’s single-season record of 2,509 scrimmage yards. Obviously a longshot but he's been a monster lately. Longer than that, actually.
--*Falcons Bijan Robinson ov83.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 4 of past 5)
--Falcons Bijan Robinson ov129.5 rush+rec yards -115 (done in 4 of past 5)
--Wanted some De'Von Achane props--figure he's the best bet for Dolphins anything--but he apparently has a banged-up shoulder and might not play
--Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov58.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 6 of past 7)
------*ov73.5 rush + rec yards -118 (done in 8 of past 9)
--Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov37.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 4 straight)
------ov54.5 rush + rec yards -118 (done in 4 straight)
--Bears Caleb Williams needs 270 pass yards to become Bears first 4,000-yard passer.
--another worthy-looking team total on hold due to uncertainly on whether or not Ramstuds will play a full 4 quarters; Rams ov27.5-108.120 (since week 8 bye, done in 3 of 4 home games (only miss 21 vs Seat), and 7 of 9 overall in same stretch); Cardinals have allowed 28+ in 3 of their past 4, with only Falcons with 26 under
--Ravens Derrick Henry ov88.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 4 straight)
--also like Steelers both Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren on their rushing + receiving yards as Steelers are grim with pass-catchers but both of these solid backs have been involved through the air as well; Gainwell likely the more durable
Happy New Year and
Good Luck
recency bias: week 17: 24-39-3 +366.71
First plus turned in several weeks. Hoping for a miracle closer before the playoffs start. Only 13 games available there but I hope to continue pushing my luck with the player props, which have sure been working better than my totals, teasers, and side parlays.
Buccaneers -2.5 -120 120/100
1H 49ers +114 100/114
49ers +124 100/124
---
packers +10 -118 118/100
packers +340 50/170
Texans -10 -109 218/200
Bengals -7 -125 200/160
1H Patriots -6.5 -115 115/100
Bears -3 +101 100/101
=1121(9)
P2 Buccaneers -144 / 49ers +2 +104 <+245> 50/122.83
P2 1H Texans -6.5 -105 / 1H Bengals -4.5 -110 <+272> 50/136.36
P2 Bills -6.5 -140 / Rams -6.5 -169 <+172> 60/103.72
=160(3)
T2/6 Bengals -1.5 / Bills -2 -130 65/50
T2/6 Bengals -1.5 / Broncos -6.5 / Patriots -5.5 +160 50/80
T2/6 Bills -2 / Patriots -5.5 -130 65/50
T2/6 Broncos -6.5 / Rams -2.5 -130 65/50
=245(4)
Buccaneers Mike Evans anytime TD +165 70/115.50
Buccaneers Baker Mayfield anytime TD scorer +600 25/150
Panthers Rico Dowdle 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +650 40/260
49ers Jauan Jennings anytime TD +190 60/114
49ers Kyle Juszczyk anytime TD +875 20/175
---
P2 Panthers Rico Dowdle anytime TD +123 /
/ Seahawks Zach Charbonnet anytime TD +122 <+395> 40/158.02
P2 Panthers Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD +165 /
/ Falcons Bijan Robinson ov129.5 rush+rec yards -115 <+395> 40/158.17
P2 Texans Dalton Schultz anytime TD +250 /
/ Bears Colston Loveland anytime TD +150 <+775> 40/310
P2 Bengals Chase Brown ov61.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Falcons Bijan Robinson ov83.5 rushing yards -115 <+249> 50/124.76
P2 Bengals Chase Brown ov83.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Saints Juwan Johnson ov61.5 receiving yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Saints Tyler Shough ov231.5 passing yards -115 /
/ Bears Caleb Williams ov234.5 passing yards -115 <+249> 50/124.76
P2 Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov73.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov63.5 rushing + receiving yards -110 <+252> 50/126.35
P2 Bears Colston Loveland ov47.5 receiving yards -118 /
/ Ravens Derrick Henry ov88.5 rushing yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
=585(13)
--Panthers Rico Dowdle just needs to show up for his 7 needed scrimmage yards to reach 1350 which cashes him a big million bonus. Apparently needing a single TD, as well, to collect another 250,000.
--49ers Christian McCaffrey not touched yet--concerned about his massive usage last game as well as Seahawks stellar run D--but I've seen ov18.5 rush attempts -120 (done 5 straight), ov68.5 rush yards -115 (done 3 straight & 5 of last 6), and ov115.5 rush+receiving yards -115 (done in 2 straight & 10 of 16 games overall)
--Seahawks Zach Charbonnet ov43.5 rushing -118 (done in 3 of past 5 with a season-high 110 in last)
--Seahawks Kenneth Walker ov46.5 rushing -115 (done in 2 straight and 6 of past 8)
=====
--Bengals Chase Brown needs 53 rush yards for 1000 (closed with 990 last year)
--*Bengals Chase Brown ov61.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 2 straight, 5 of past 7, and 7 of past 10)
--**Bengals Chase Brown ov83.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 (done in 3 straight and 9 of past 10)
----Chase Brown apparently over an early-week illness, so says the currents (practiced Friday)
--also tempted by Bengals ov26.5 -120 (done in 4 of their past 5; Browns allowed 27+ in 5 of 7 road games) but I'm on the spread and figure that 20 by Browns might be a stretch
--Saints top receiver Chris Olave ruled out so I expect Juwan Johnson to be a bigger factor
--Saints Tyler Shough ov231.5 passing yards -115 (done in 3 straight and 6 of past 7); maybe crazy with the top receiver out but I figure he will be throwing often, and his completion percentage has been solid
--Falcons Bijan Robinson needs 255 yards in Week 18 vs. the Saints to break Chris Johnson’s single-season record of 2,509 scrimmage yards. Obviously a longshot but he's been a monster lately. Longer than that, actually.
--*Falcons Bijan Robinson ov83.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 4 of past 5)
--Falcons Bijan Robinson ov129.5 rush+rec yards -115 (done in 4 of past 5)
--Wanted some De'Von Achane props--figure he's the best bet for Dolphins anything--but he apparently has a banged-up shoulder and might not play
--Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov58.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 6 of past 7)
------*ov73.5 rush + rec yards -118 (done in 8 of past 9)
--Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov37.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 4 straight)
------ov54.5 rush + rec yards -118 (done in 4 straight)
--Bears Caleb Williams needs 270 pass yards to become Bears first 4,000-yard passer.
--another worthy-looking team total on hold due to uncertainly on whether or not Ramstuds will play a full 4 quarters; Rams ov27.5-108.120 (since week 8 bye, done in 3 of 4 home games (only miss 21 vs Seat), and 7 of 9 overall in same stretch); Cardinals have allowed 28+ in 3 of their past 4, with only Falcons with 26 under
--Ravens Derrick Henry ov88.5 rushing yards -115 (done in 4 straight)
--also like Steelers both Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren on their rushing + receiving yards as Steelers are grim with pass-catchers but both of these solid backs have been involved through the air as well; Gainwell likely the more durable
Happy New Year and
Good Luck
