Week 2 Line Overreactions

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For Week 2 I see most falling into the trap of falling for the "easy" favorite. Sure teams like Cincy, NO, Indy, Pitt "should" dominate their opponents this week - but do you really think this will actually happen? I see alot of inflated lines based on last week. I've seen NO line go from 3 to 5.5 w/in the half hour. I just can't see laying all this chalk already in Week 2 - this is the NFL after all! Week after week people lay points & then complain about what "should have happened". This league plays off public perception more than any other. I think it's gonna be a juicy day for the dogs. If I'm wrong, oh well, but there are a bunch of home dogs, division rival games, etc that I think we'll see some upsets & dogs keep the games close. I don't think the books will take a bath today - almost everyone is on these TD favorites - history shows that's a mistake. I'm putting a dime on each of the dogs in the early games - here is what i've locked into through local:

Bills +10
Browns +7
Titals +7
Texans +7
49ers +3
Packers +3
Falcons +10
Buccaneers +5.5

Each game to win $1K - good luck...
 
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Thanks guys - can you say 7W-1L!!! One thing I've learned in my years of playing NFL - EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED...at first glance there is no way you can think Browns wins outright, TB wins outright, Pack wins outright, SF wins outright, the "terrible" Falcons don't get blown out, the Texans win outright, Titans almost win - only game that really "went to form" was the Steelers winning by 23 - 8 games, 7 dogs cover +$5,900...just a great week where i'll be collecting a nice chunk (had a good college week, even w/ losing Nebraska & under last night)...I'm taking rest of week off (that means rest of today, and tomorrow) - very nice week, no reason to mess w/ it - just gonna enjoy watching the games & rooting for my several FF teams - hope some of you cashed in on the over-reactions - more to come next week

GL w/ whatever you play - but remember this - there really is no reason to lay points in NFL - ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED - i guess I approach NFL like this - each week the lines are set for all the games - and every week people pound the chalk favorites - now think about it - the sports book has to side w/ teams like the Tampa Bay, Browns, Texans, etc today - now in the end the books win - IF you play the way they want you to - DON'T PLAY THAT WAY - in NFL - take the dogs, and don't look back. Sure favorites have their runs, and might be weeks you take 3 TD favorite teams that blow the opponent out - but trust me - if you constantly lay 5, lay 6, lay 7, lay 10 - you will be the one who goes broke fast...pick the teams that are almost painful - i mean did you think it was easy to pick the Browns & Bucs today? I had a knot in my stomach as i told the man "give me TB, Cleveland, Houston, etc" - but i felt pretty darn good when he told me out of about 50 people i was the ONLY one who took the Browns, and only 2 people took Tampa Bay - i'll side w/ the bookie every day of the week.

Good luck - enjoy the rest of games - and don't lay too many points :) ! -SAVE IT
 
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Dogs go 4-1-1 in the late games - wish i would have kept playing them :) - but i'm satisfied for the week...so not playing SNF or MNF this week

FYI if i had to pick the SNF game - i'd lay the points w/ the Pats - one other rule I do have w/ NFL is NEVER doubt the Pats in a big game - it's weird last night I went against USC in college football - a team that always seems to rise to the occasion in a big game - big mistake, i just think that alot seem to think there is substantial value in the Chargers - but on the road in Foxboro i don't see it. This one does have the looks of a close game, but i can see the Pats blowing out the Chargers before the Chargers blow out the Pats - just my opinion - i don't like to lay points in NFL - and if i do won't lay more than 4 - but i believe that New England will most likely win and cover tonight. Good luck if you play it - but this looks like a good game to just sit back and enjoy w/ no financial interest.
 
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Guess I should have followed my own advice and taken the Pats (i stuck to my guns and passed on the game) - been fun though watching it play out - I'm really starting to get excited about that Green Bay vs. San Diego matchup next week - being a Packer season ticket holder won't be at that game (Gold Package ticket for the SD game) - but would love to be at the game - Pack probably won't win, but I like what I've seen from the Pack defense - who knows if they can find a way to take LT out of equation, might be an "upset". I'm assuming GB will be a home dog next week. Good luck - looking forward to see who the public is "chasing" next week - in this league week to week there is minimal margin between the "good" and "bad" teams...
 
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astroturf

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your the man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wish I would have read this before taking NO and CIN. I'll be looking forward to next weeks thread.
 
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