13-4 YTD
Lets keep it rolling this weekend!
Hopefully some of you won off my picks last week - http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?559472-Week-2-Easy-Money!-(4-0-last-week)
Going to limit the weekly number of plays as it is simply impossible to win real money long term betting over 10 games per day. Instead lets just focus on 5-6 favorite picks plus an additional games that are leans/small plays.
INDIANA -7.5 - Bowling Green has regressed significantly, losing 3 starters in the secondary and playing without their best DL and most importantly their leader QB Matt Johnson. They got absolutely torched by Western Kentucky in week 1 giving up almost 600 yds passing. Hoosiers QB Nate Sudfeld has NFL potential and should be able to pick apart this terrible defense. Teams coming off a win, a week of rest, and playing on the road in Game 2 are 19-6 ATS (75%) when playing a defense that allows 27+ points on the season. I like Indiana to score 35+ and cover
PENN STATE -3 - I feel like this would be a 8-10 pt spread if the game was in Happy Valley and this current line/price looks very favorable. Most important factor in capping this game is the news that PSU is now eligible for postseason play. After everything that program went thru make no mistake they will be fired up! Rutgers is 2-0 but hasnt looked impressive at all, especially on defense. They beat a terrible Washington State team and were lucky to beat Howard last week, barely escaping with a win despite being a 38 point favorite. Howard actually outgained Rutgers in total yardage. PSU offense is by far the best they have seen. QB Hackenberg is right up there with guys like Hundley, Mariota, Winston etc in the eyes of NFL Scouts and he is only a true soph. I also give PSU a significant coaching advantage here as James Franklin defenses are always solid. Rutgers is 0-9 all time at home vs PSU, 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game, 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games played in the month of September and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record. I'm taking PSU with the points and ML.
TEXAS SAN ANTONIO +14 - I will keep riding with them until they let me down. UTSA is 2-0 ATS this year, 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7. UTSA features one of the most senior laden teams in the country and now they get Oklahoma St without their starting QB. UTSA also features the #1 rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing -26 yards per game when on the road. The Roadrunners have allowed only 33 combined points and 662 total yards to their first two opponents. That includes the 454 allowed to Arizona? who racked up a program-record 787 yards the previous week. All of this spells trouble for OSU new backup Daxx Garman who should account for at least one turnover. Look for UTSA to run the ball and try to keep time of possession in their favor in a close, ugly game. I have seen this line up to 16 in some places.
UCLA -7 (buy the hook) - Longhorns fans are already circling the wagons on Charlie Strong after last weeks BYU debacle, so I can see this team coming out with something to prove here. However UCLA is simply far more talented on both sides of the ball and should be able to destroy a Texas team missing its starting QB, top two WRs, Center and several other key players. Dont read too much in to Memphis offensive success vs UCLA last week - Memphis prepared for that game for over a year and according to UCLA players, Memphis came out with an entirely new offense from anything they've ever shown. This Texas offense is a much different story. Freshman backup QB Tyrone Swoopes is very raw offensively and will commit turnovers against a UCLA defense that is much better than its shown so far. In a game like this you have to go with the better QB and there is really no comparison right now with Swoopes vs Hundley. UCLA OL will have to do a much better job protecting Hundley. If they can avoid giving up sacks I think UCLA plays their most complete game yet and comes away with a win/cover.
USC -17 - full warning I am a USC fan so this is somewhat bias but I think we handle BC easily. Their run defense vs mediocre Pitt last week was garbage. Buck Allen just ran for 150+ against a great Stanford D last week. Juju Smith, Adoree Jackson and Nelson Agholor will be able to make a lot of plays vs this terrible defense. The West Coast team traveling to East Coast theory doesnt work at 8pm prime time ESPN game. USC should win this pretty easily.
Leans/Small Plays
BOISE ST -16 - forget the early game east coast theory. UCONN is terrible and BSU should win in a blowout
UMASS +17 - both teams are terrible but Im not sure Vandy offense can even score 17 pts
ARIZONA STATE -14 - too much talent on offense with Kelly, Foster and Strong. Colorado defense wont be able to stop them and the offense will have a hard time keeping pace
PURDUE +28.5 - ND isnt as good as they showed last week and Purdue isnt as bad. Purdue usually gets up for this game
ECU +11 - VT being overrated a bit after last week. This ECU offense can score
TCU -16 - Minnesota without QB Leidner against solid TCU defense
OLE MISS OVER 58.5 - ULL plays no defense. Ole Miss offense should have a field day and score 45+
OKLAHOMA OVER 57 - OU will put up at least 45 and Vols will put up garbage time points
SOUTH CAROLINA +7 - wasnt going to bet this game but with the delay why not. SC tackling got exposed in space vs A&M but should do better job vs Gurley in the box. These games are always close and Spurrier needs this one
GL everyone lets crush the books today...
Lets keep it rolling this weekend!
Hopefully some of you won off my picks last week - http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?559472-Week-2-Easy-Money!-(4-0-last-week)
Going to limit the weekly number of plays as it is simply impossible to win real money long term betting over 10 games per day. Instead lets just focus on 5-6 favorite picks plus an additional games that are leans/small plays.
INDIANA -7.5 - Bowling Green has regressed significantly, losing 3 starters in the secondary and playing without their best DL and most importantly their leader QB Matt Johnson. They got absolutely torched by Western Kentucky in week 1 giving up almost 600 yds passing. Hoosiers QB Nate Sudfeld has NFL potential and should be able to pick apart this terrible defense. Teams coming off a win, a week of rest, and playing on the road in Game 2 are 19-6 ATS (75%) when playing a defense that allows 27+ points on the season. I like Indiana to score 35+ and cover
PENN STATE -3 - I feel like this would be a 8-10 pt spread if the game was in Happy Valley and this current line/price looks very favorable. Most important factor in capping this game is the news that PSU is now eligible for postseason play. After everything that program went thru make no mistake they will be fired up! Rutgers is 2-0 but hasnt looked impressive at all, especially on defense. They beat a terrible Washington State team and were lucky to beat Howard last week, barely escaping with a win despite being a 38 point favorite. Howard actually outgained Rutgers in total yardage. PSU offense is by far the best they have seen. QB Hackenberg is right up there with guys like Hundley, Mariota, Winston etc in the eyes of NFL Scouts and he is only a true soph. I also give PSU a significant coaching advantage here as James Franklin defenses are always solid. Rutgers is 0-9 all time at home vs PSU, 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game, 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games played in the month of September and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record. I'm taking PSU with the points and ML.
TEXAS SAN ANTONIO +14 - I will keep riding with them until they let me down. UTSA is 2-0 ATS this year, 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7. UTSA features one of the most senior laden teams in the country and now they get Oklahoma St without their starting QB. UTSA also features the #1 rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing -26 yards per game when on the road. The Roadrunners have allowed only 33 combined points and 662 total yards to their first two opponents. That includes the 454 allowed to Arizona? who racked up a program-record 787 yards the previous week. All of this spells trouble for OSU new backup Daxx Garman who should account for at least one turnover. Look for UTSA to run the ball and try to keep time of possession in their favor in a close, ugly game. I have seen this line up to 16 in some places.
UCLA -7 (buy the hook) - Longhorns fans are already circling the wagons on Charlie Strong after last weeks BYU debacle, so I can see this team coming out with something to prove here. However UCLA is simply far more talented on both sides of the ball and should be able to destroy a Texas team missing its starting QB, top two WRs, Center and several other key players. Dont read too much in to Memphis offensive success vs UCLA last week - Memphis prepared for that game for over a year and according to UCLA players, Memphis came out with an entirely new offense from anything they've ever shown. This Texas offense is a much different story. Freshman backup QB Tyrone Swoopes is very raw offensively and will commit turnovers against a UCLA defense that is much better than its shown so far. In a game like this you have to go with the better QB and there is really no comparison right now with Swoopes vs Hundley. UCLA OL will have to do a much better job protecting Hundley. If they can avoid giving up sacks I think UCLA plays their most complete game yet and comes away with a win/cover.
USC -17 - full warning I am a USC fan so this is somewhat bias but I think we handle BC easily. Their run defense vs mediocre Pitt last week was garbage. Buck Allen just ran for 150+ against a great Stanford D last week. Juju Smith, Adoree Jackson and Nelson Agholor will be able to make a lot of plays vs this terrible defense. The West Coast team traveling to East Coast theory doesnt work at 8pm prime time ESPN game. USC should win this pretty easily.
Leans/Small Plays
BOISE ST -16 - forget the early game east coast theory. UCONN is terrible and BSU should win in a blowout
UMASS +17 - both teams are terrible but Im not sure Vandy offense can even score 17 pts
ARIZONA STATE -14 - too much talent on offense with Kelly, Foster and Strong. Colorado defense wont be able to stop them and the offense will have a hard time keeping pace
PURDUE +28.5 - ND isnt as good as they showed last week and Purdue isnt as bad. Purdue usually gets up for this game
ECU +11 - VT being overrated a bit after last week. This ECU offense can score
TCU -16 - Minnesota without QB Leidner against solid TCU defense
OLE MISS OVER 58.5 - ULL plays no defense. Ole Miss offense should have a field day and score 45+
OKLAHOMA OVER 57 - OU will put up at least 45 and Vols will put up garbage time points
SOUTH CAROLINA +7 - wasnt going to bet this game but with the delay why not. SC tackling got exposed in space vs A&M but should do better job vs Gurley in the box. These games are always close and Spurrier needs this one
GL everyone lets crush the books today...
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