NFL Week 3 ? Hot Dogs
(Sep 17)
By Simon Milham ? Britain?s top Football Handicapper and TRADESPORTS.COM columnist.
Sometimes the Las Vegas odds makers beggar belief. The unbeaten Minnesota Vikings, many people?s tip for the NFC North title and, indeed, the Super Bowl, travel to Detroit as mere 4.5-point favourites. For all the world they look as though they should be at least a touchdown better. But the line makers are seldom wrong.
The Vikings offensive line looked formidable early on against the Chicago Bears last weekend, but although kept their defense guessing with Duante Culpepper finding nine different receivers, they failed to put them to the sword until late on in a 24-13 home win.
Now they head to the Motor City, looking to go 3-0 for the season (and in the division) before beginning a stretch of four straight games against non-NFC North opponents.
Last week, we mentioned Seattle heading to Arizona as 4.5-point favourites was almost as insulting as it was laughable and the Seahawks duly rolled to a 38-0 success.
This looks an equally good opportunity ? but the Vikings are vastly overrated compared to the underrated Seahawks and they may not only fail to cover the spread at Ford Field, they could well blow the game completely.
The young Lions are much more aggressive on defense than they have been in past seasons and they have big play potential in QB Joey Harrington, who threw a career high 55 passes in a lop-sided 31-6 defeat in Green Bay, completing 26 for 241 yards. Sadly 10 balls were dropped by his receivers, who failed to cope with the wet conditions and they were beaten by the Packers? running game.
Without injured James Stewart, the Lions are in something of a one-dimensional quandary, and the ground game is being shouldered by Olandis Gary and Shawn Bryson, neither of them punishing backs, so Harrington is in for a busy time again.
But where they could win the game on Sunday is with their special teams, in particular the kicking game.
The Vikings really need to improve their return game and if the Lions? defense can tackle better than they did against the Bears and give Harrington a short field, there is every hope of pulling off an upset against the Vikings? still suspect secondary.
The New York Giants head to the nation?s capital to face a resurgent Washington Redskins ? but are strangely 2.5-point dogs and could be one of the week?s best bets.
Despite a shock OT loss at home to the Dallas Cowboys Monday night, the Giants have one of the most balanced offenses in the NFC, but their weakness will be exposed early this season, because the line has been beset with injury problems and three rookies started on the O-line against the Cowboys. Their 53 yards total rushing was frankly awful, but Kerry Collins conjured up four touchdown drives in the 35-32 defeat and that level of productivity should be enough to make a game of it against the Redskins, whose defensive line is ordinary at best.
A lot will rest on young QB Patrick Ramsey?s shoulders this season and he has already shown he can lead from the front. Two narrow victories against suspect defenses (Jets and Falcons) should be applauded, but the Giants? D is a different kettle of fish and though it should be close, expect the Giants to win a low scoring contest.
Finally, although the writing is not yet on the wall for the 0-2 New York Jets, the ball-baring is rattling in the spray can. The may not be able to win in New England this weekend, but their backs are certainly up against the wall and the hope, rather than expectation, is that they could cover 6.5-point spread.
It is obvious that QB Vinny Testaverde and offensive co-ordinator Paul Hackett fit together like ?Tony Blair? and ?trust me? in the same sentence. On the plus side, the Jets did some good things against the Dolphins in a 21-10 loss, especially the QB who completed 29 of 45 passes for 373 yards and a touchdown.
The running game needs addressing. Curtis Martin has managed only 80 yards from 25 carries, with his longest run being a paltry 12 yards. It is time for this offensive leader to step up, but he must be given a chance to shine. Now would be a good time to do it in a place where the Jets have tasted victory on all their last five visits.
Testaverde was handed three and four wide receiver sets, which he likes, in the second half against the Dolphins and that gameplan early on should allow Martin to see a little more action.
The defense has lost its best coverman, Donnie Abraham, for six weeks with a shoulder injury, but if they can limit the mental mistakes they made against the Dolphins (namely over-pursuit on certain plays), there is reason to think that they are win with a realistic chance of righting their listing season.
Even if they don?t, the Jets are used to slow starts. Two years ago they started 1-2 and last year they made the playoffs and won the AFC east from a 1-4 start.
To do it, they must stop the New England running game, but in truth, the Patriots are not as good as their 31-10 win in Philadelphia last week suggests - their offense is over-rated.
What they do have is an excellent offensive co-ordinator in Charlie Weis, who will try and exploit the Jets? weakness against the run with Antowain Smith Kevin Faulk, while giving QB Tom Brady enough opportunities to take on stand-in cover men Ray Mickens and Jamie Henderson. The Patriots should snap their losing sequence to the Jets here in no uncertain terms, but a small investment in the Jets with the points may not go amiss in a game where playing the Unders/Overs might be the best solution. Only once in the last nine meetings has the combined points total gone below 37 points and the line is set at 37.5 points. The Overs gets the call again.
Milham?s Week 3 Dog Delights:
Lions +4.5 (Over 46.5), NY Giants +2.5 (Under 40.5), NY Jets +6.6 (Over 37.5)
Fab Favourites are 5-1 for the season (83 per cent) 3-0 last week.
Dog Delights are 4-2 for the season (66 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Unders/Overs are 6-6 for the season (50 per cent) 4-2 last week.
Simon Milham is a columnist with TRADESPORTS.COM . TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.
TRADESPORTS.COM
(Sep 17)
By Simon Milham ? Britain?s top Football Handicapper and TRADESPORTS.COM columnist.
Sometimes the Las Vegas odds makers beggar belief. The unbeaten Minnesota Vikings, many people?s tip for the NFC North title and, indeed, the Super Bowl, travel to Detroit as mere 4.5-point favourites. For all the world they look as though they should be at least a touchdown better. But the line makers are seldom wrong.
The Vikings offensive line looked formidable early on against the Chicago Bears last weekend, but although kept their defense guessing with Duante Culpepper finding nine different receivers, they failed to put them to the sword until late on in a 24-13 home win.
Now they head to the Motor City, looking to go 3-0 for the season (and in the division) before beginning a stretch of four straight games against non-NFC North opponents.
Last week, we mentioned Seattle heading to Arizona as 4.5-point favourites was almost as insulting as it was laughable and the Seahawks duly rolled to a 38-0 success.
This looks an equally good opportunity ? but the Vikings are vastly overrated compared to the underrated Seahawks and they may not only fail to cover the spread at Ford Field, they could well blow the game completely.
The young Lions are much more aggressive on defense than they have been in past seasons and they have big play potential in QB Joey Harrington, who threw a career high 55 passes in a lop-sided 31-6 defeat in Green Bay, completing 26 for 241 yards. Sadly 10 balls were dropped by his receivers, who failed to cope with the wet conditions and they were beaten by the Packers? running game.
Without injured James Stewart, the Lions are in something of a one-dimensional quandary, and the ground game is being shouldered by Olandis Gary and Shawn Bryson, neither of them punishing backs, so Harrington is in for a busy time again.
But where they could win the game on Sunday is with their special teams, in particular the kicking game.
The Vikings really need to improve their return game and if the Lions? defense can tackle better than they did against the Bears and give Harrington a short field, there is every hope of pulling off an upset against the Vikings? still suspect secondary.
The New York Giants head to the nation?s capital to face a resurgent Washington Redskins ? but are strangely 2.5-point dogs and could be one of the week?s best bets.
Despite a shock OT loss at home to the Dallas Cowboys Monday night, the Giants have one of the most balanced offenses in the NFC, but their weakness will be exposed early this season, because the line has been beset with injury problems and three rookies started on the O-line against the Cowboys. Their 53 yards total rushing was frankly awful, but Kerry Collins conjured up four touchdown drives in the 35-32 defeat and that level of productivity should be enough to make a game of it against the Redskins, whose defensive line is ordinary at best.
A lot will rest on young QB Patrick Ramsey?s shoulders this season and he has already shown he can lead from the front. Two narrow victories against suspect defenses (Jets and Falcons) should be applauded, but the Giants? D is a different kettle of fish and though it should be close, expect the Giants to win a low scoring contest.
Finally, although the writing is not yet on the wall for the 0-2 New York Jets, the ball-baring is rattling in the spray can. The may not be able to win in New England this weekend, but their backs are certainly up against the wall and the hope, rather than expectation, is that they could cover 6.5-point spread.
It is obvious that QB Vinny Testaverde and offensive co-ordinator Paul Hackett fit together like ?Tony Blair? and ?trust me? in the same sentence. On the plus side, the Jets did some good things against the Dolphins in a 21-10 loss, especially the QB who completed 29 of 45 passes for 373 yards and a touchdown.
The running game needs addressing. Curtis Martin has managed only 80 yards from 25 carries, with his longest run being a paltry 12 yards. It is time for this offensive leader to step up, but he must be given a chance to shine. Now would be a good time to do it in a place where the Jets have tasted victory on all their last five visits.
Testaverde was handed three and four wide receiver sets, which he likes, in the second half against the Dolphins and that gameplan early on should allow Martin to see a little more action.
The defense has lost its best coverman, Donnie Abraham, for six weeks with a shoulder injury, but if they can limit the mental mistakes they made against the Dolphins (namely over-pursuit on certain plays), there is reason to think that they are win with a realistic chance of righting their listing season.
Even if they don?t, the Jets are used to slow starts. Two years ago they started 1-2 and last year they made the playoffs and won the AFC east from a 1-4 start.
To do it, they must stop the New England running game, but in truth, the Patriots are not as good as their 31-10 win in Philadelphia last week suggests - their offense is over-rated.
What they do have is an excellent offensive co-ordinator in Charlie Weis, who will try and exploit the Jets? weakness against the run with Antowain Smith Kevin Faulk, while giving QB Tom Brady enough opportunities to take on stand-in cover men Ray Mickens and Jamie Henderson. The Patriots should snap their losing sequence to the Jets here in no uncertain terms, but a small investment in the Jets with the points may not go amiss in a game where playing the Unders/Overs might be the best solution. Only once in the last nine meetings has the combined points total gone below 37 points and the line is set at 37.5 points. The Overs gets the call again.
Milham?s Week 3 Dog Delights:
Lions +4.5 (Over 46.5), NY Giants +2.5 (Under 40.5), NY Jets +6.6 (Over 37.5)
Fab Favourites are 5-1 for the season (83 per cent) 3-0 last week.
Dog Delights are 4-2 for the season (66 per cent) 1-2 last week.
Unders/Overs are 6-6 for the season (50 per cent) 4-2 last week.
Simon Milham is a columnist with TRADESPORTS.COM . TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.
TRADESPORTS.COM
