Week 3 Saturday

Toledo Prophet

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YTD: 9-3

Nice start to the season and with the UNC pick Thursday, nice start to the week. Looks like it will be raining all day here in Toledo, so it will be a perfect day to watch a boatload of college....and off course gamble! Here's what I have so far with writeups following in ensuing posts:

CMU -3 over Ohio
Navy +2 over Duke
UB -6 over Temple
GT +7 over VT
So Carolina +7 over UGA
UM -2 over ND, 2nd H
Arky St -1 over So Miss
Miss St +10.5 over Auburn
UW +21.5 over Oklahoma
OSU +11.5 over USC
NM +11 over Arizona
N Texas +42.5 over LSU

CMU -3 at Ohio U. Central has been the premier team in the MAC for a couple years running now. Did you know that in the last three years, CMU is 19-5-1 ATS in league play? They are the two-time MAC champion and in that reign, they are 15-2 SU, 14-2-1 ATS in league play! The only games the Chips have lost the last two years in league play have come towards the end of the year, when they dropped a game after they had clinched their division and a week before the more important league title game. Those games are almost worth throwing out of the equation because of those circumstances. I see no reason to get off CMU in MAC games and will continue to play on them until they start skidding or the price becomes too steep. But, I dont think they will start skidding. They have 8 starters back on both sides of the ball, and on offense they return their record setting QB, 4 starters on the line, all the leading rushers and a pair of wideouts who caught at least 90 balls last year. A couple other technical stats for the Chips: They are 9-1 ATS in league openers and over the last three years they are 6-1 ATS in lined games after tackling a foe from a BCS league. Despite getting smoked by UGA last week, the Chips are used to getting thumped in those spots, yet rebounding in a positive way the following week. CMU is also 5-1-1 as a true road favorite in MAC play during this run. Everybody is excited about OU after their near miss against the Buckeyes last week, but you have to question if they're ready to play this game. Isn't there a good chance they're still day dreaming about their near miss while also lapping up their press clippings in the aftermath. OU's D is tough, but I think CMU will have success against the Bobcats with their experience. They blew out OU 37-10 and 31-10 in 2005 and 2006 and have not played since. Like I said earlier, until they start losing are the prices become too steep, I will stay on CMU in their conference games and hope it turns out as another amazing money maker.

I'm going to hit the gym and let the rest of the card float around my brain. I will be back and post the rest of my plays while the GameDay show is on.
 
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Toledo Prophet

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Adding the following:

Navy +2 over Duke. I lost with Navy last week, but I've had such good luck over the years with Navy that I am not bailing ship just yet with their first year head coach. I like the fact their QB is returning to action today. I think him being out of the lineup was huge last week as the Middies left a lot of points on the field, settling for FGs instead of TDs and failing on two red zone fourth and shorts. With their main guy back, I think they're sharper in those spots today. I do think Duke is improved, will move the ball today and score on Navy, but they wont stop the Middies either. In a close game, i will take the program thats been to a bowl game several years running, despite constant personnel tunrover against the program that really does not even know how to win yet. Even after Navy's loss last week, they're still on a 18-7 ATS run as a road dog since late 2002. More importantly is this fact: While rethinking this game at the gym, I saw a very cute, college-aged girl working out below us on the first level of the gym. When she bent down to stretch, we got a sight of a cute tight ass, but written across her dark blue shorts was Navy in bright yellow. I nearly fell off the elliptical machine. I mentioned to my girlfriend who was working out next me, that is sure as hell a sign to stay on Navy. She actually agreed and we high fived. So Anchors Away it is.

Speaking of my girlfriend, she'll be taking BYU today because she loves the fact the coach's name is Bronco. Keep that in mind, however, that does not count as a posted play.:SIB
 

Toledo Prophet

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Thanks guys....camera phone, too funny. I totally let the board down by telling that story without proper visuals.

One more early game:

UB -6 over Temple. I am 2-0 already this year on UB. Strong darkhorse to win their division of the MAC. This year's Kansas, if you now what I mean. Temple is improved, but UB rolled the Owls last year 42-7 in Philly. What's changed? Not much. UB will run all day with Starks and Thermilius, while Wiley is the better QB today. UB average nearly 5.0 YPC last week vs Pitt. We joke about Pitt, but they have so much more talent and speed than Temple, so its hard to see UB not having a lot of offensive success today. They can do it with balance. On the other hand, Temple has not looked as sharp on offense. Even in their near upset of Uconn, they did not do it because they were moving the chains. They only had 10 first downs and could not really run effectively. They'll will have trouble keeping up today. The Bulls won their opener by 3 TDs over UTEP and I smell a blowout. Owls are just 2-8-1 ATS on the road against MAC teams.
 

BGFalcon

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At least she only had Navy on her ass, the ladies where I work out can fit "The Naval Academy at Annapolis" across their backsides.
 
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Toledo Prophet

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Adding at least one for the 3:30 games:

Georgia Tech +7 over Virginia Tech. Obviously as a Navy backer, i am equally a fan of their former coach Paul Johnson. I took his Jackets last week and I think they're more than capable of repeating that success today, even if they're playing in a more dangerous stadium against a more well known brand. But, the brand of VT is not as shiny this year. Much has been made of the goofy QB situation, but not as much is made about all the three and two year starters on defense this team is replacing. They will take their lumps this year and be much better on November 13 than they are today on September 13. GT did not set the world on fire with their triple option last week, but did just enough. BC's front seven is much better and sturdier than VT's right now. GT will be disciplined on their game plan and if they were able to hit enough big plays last week out of Dwyer and Nesbitt against that BC front, they should be able to, at worst, repeat those plays this week. Here's the key: GT knows what it wants to do on offense and will keep at it against a defense full of newcomers. But, the Hokies have no clue really what's going with their offense and a seasoned and athletic GT front will take advantage. Jackets could very well win this game, but I'll take the TD head start. I'll sign off with this stat: GT is now 15-4 ATS as a road dog and all those great road dog numbers in Navy writeup belong to a Johnson coached team. This is his role.
 

Toledo Prophet

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0-2 start to the day.....uh oh!!! :scared

Gonna add a 3:30 kick:

So Carolina +7 over UGA. Always a low scoring tussle....besides my favorite SEC capper on this site, Cie, is on it and if he likes an SEC dog, I am on it.
 

Toledo Prophet

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A push w/ CMU....I should have spent the cash for the ML or at least bought it down to under a FG. I'll need to scramble to get to .500 today, let alone a winning day.

But I will start with a 2nd H play:

UM -2 over ND.

UM is running the ball well, Threet looks good. If they stop shooting themselves in the foot, this game will go down to the wire. Technically, this means i have UM +9. I would have taken that in a heart beat if that was the line this morning.
 

Toledo Prophet

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Adding some night plays....no time for write-ups:

Miss St +10.5 over Auburn.....Staying on the DD Dogs in Sec Play bandwagon.

Ark St -1 over So Miss, -108. Love the angle AR passed on in his thread.
 

Toledo Prophet

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You cant leave me home alone all day watching college football as I will just gamble all night. We're buying a lot of dogs tonight.

OSU +11.5 over USC. I think the Bucks can rattle Sanchez the way they did McCoy in the 2006 Texas game. That will keep this game close.

NM +11 over Arizona. The Lobos have always been a solid underdog play. I dont trust AU as DD road favorites.

UW +21.5 over Oklahoma. Enough people I like on this board and not on this board seem to like the Huskies, so I will join the club here.

NT +42.5 over LSU. The proverbial 40-point dog system. Its worked in the past, lets go Mean Green!

Here's hoping for a carzy night of college football!! :weed:
 
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