Week 3 (Sept.23rd-24th)

[EXTRAPOLATER]

week 1: 13-6 +7.32
week 2: 9-20 -9.18
total: 22-26 -1.86
ML: 1-2 -1.45
spread: 6-4 +2.5
1st H: 0-1 -0.75
teasers: 10-17 -4.77
parlays & IFs: 5-2 +2.61
best bets: 4-2


Tried to salvage week 2 with some late plays on the Chargers and Eagles, which gave me a much larger minus than I should have scored. Hopefully a lesson for the future.

Already got a few plays in for week 3, but mostly I'm biding my time and enjoying the remainder of the bases. Here's what I've got so far:

Steelers -7 -140 1.4/1

panthers -3.5 -110 1.1/1

2-7 teaser
--Steelers -2
--bengals +10
-130
0.78/0.6

2-6.5 teaser
--Steelers -2.5
--cowboys +10
-120
0.84/0.7


I want to get more going on the Bengals, but I'm not sure if maybe I'm just real pissed at the Seahawks right now and might be making a(nother) mistake by fading them this week. Their pass defense was a joke though, last week, so I figure that Palmer should have a good time.
Still considering some others.
Like the Cowboys but the Bears D might keep them under 20, for a change, and the 'Boys defense hasn't been terribly impressive.

Undoubtedly more to come.

Stay tuned.

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

gotta believe that the Colts can keep winning

adding:

2-6 teaser
--colts pk
--Steelers -3
-110
1.1/1


More likely to come but there's not really a tasty selection this week.
Looking to smoke the bases as the season winds down; NFL will pick up week 5 or 6 to infinity.

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

got another:

7-team IF bet
1.Steelers -9 0.63/0.6
2.colts -6 0.55/0.5
3.bengals 0.73/1.2
4.panthers -3.5 1.1/1
5.browns +3 0.8/0.8
6.jax-Den un35.5 1.1/1
7.cowboys 1.1/1.6
0.63 to win max.6.7


These are the 6 (sides) I like best.
All the others look pretty tough, to me.

A Steelers loss and my week will be shot.
Books are giving about a 20% chance of that happening (sf +400), but I think that's a little high; Steelers should roll.
Actually Pitt at -500 has an 83.3% break-even mark.
Same diff. 17%. 20%.
I'd say somewhere between 10-15% makes better sense.

Just checked on some of my own work.
A rough 'cap of the game that I did gave about a 5% chance for the 49'ers to win.
Average score: Steelers 26, 49'ers 12

Just checked the total. That's bang on. 38.
That's a total fluke, I swear.

This is my first go at higher than -7.
The -3 you can tease it to looks too good to be true.

More to come.

GL

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

colts -6 -110 1.1/1


:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

adding a bunch more:

2-7 teaser
--jax@Den un43
--panthers +3.5
-130
0.65/0.5

2-6.5 teaser
--Steelers -3
--Ravens -1
-120
0.6/0.5

colts -6 -115 0.92/0.8 (pumping up a previous bet)

Steelers -7 -160 1.2/0.75 (pumpin')

panthers -3.5 -120 0.9/0.75 (pumpin')

10-team IF bet
1.bengals 0.5/0.8
2.phillies -1.5 0.55/0.5
3.Steelers -7 0.8/0.5
4.rockies 0.6/0.66
5.panthers -3.5 0.9/0.75
6.lad@Ariz un9 0.84/0.8
7.colts -6 0.8/0.7
8.browns +3 0.69/0.69
9.Tigers -1.5 1.25/1
10.cowboys +3.5 1.5/1.2
0.5 to win max.7.6

10-team IF bet
1.browns 0.5/0.75
2.mets -1.5 0.6/0.5
3.colts -6 0.57/0.5
4.dodgers 0.75/0.6
5.Chiefs -3 0.84/0.8
6.rockies over3.5 1/0.8
7.Steelers -7 1.2/0.75
8.bengals +3 0.7/0.7
9.Tigers -1.5 1.25/1
10.dal@Chi un41 1.65/1.5
0.5 to win max.7.9

2-6.5 teaser (pumpin')
--colts pk
--Steelers -3
-120
0.84/0.7

2-6.5 teaser
--Steelers -3
--panthers +3
-120
0.6/0.5


That should close me out for Sunday, unless I smoke in early action then I might elaborate.
Steelers, no more than -7, colts at -6, and panthers at -3.5 are my best bets for week 3.
Bengals maybe as a dark horse pick--that's one I might get the nerve to pump up with some early winners.

Need some sleep before the action commences.

GL

:SIB