Week 4 plays and predicted scores

[Agent 0659]

31-46-6

-$600 (BR$400)

Sides: 10-12-5
Totals: 13-13
2nd half: 4-5
1st half: 0-2
ML: 3-3
Parlays: 0-3
Teasers: 2-7-1

Shoulda (predicted scores vs spread)- 54-35-7:shrug:


I expect this to be a very good week! My capping involves scores from the last 4 weeks, so I have been using scores from last year which isn't the greatest indicator.

We shall see!:SIB

I will also put in parentheses my record for each team, to see how this is playing out with each squad.

GL

 

[rusty]

Gettn killed in the pros also.
But its early.
GL this week.!!

 

[Agent 0659]

Oakland (1-2 sides/ 2-1 totals) at Miami (0-1-2 / 1-2):

Miami -4
42

Daunte Culpepper would love to fry his former fish mates Sunday as a member of the Raiders. But can Oakland beat the winless Fins, a team they have a woeful 1-6 ATS mark against since 1997?

Oddsmakers currently have the Dolphins listed as 3?-point favorites versus the Raiders, while the game's total is sitting at 39.

The Raiders defeated Cleveland 26-24 as a 3-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41.5).

LaMont Jordan rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries for Oakland, while Josh McCown completed 5-of-11 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown.

The Dolphins lost to the Jets 31-28 as a 3-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (36.5).

Ronnie Brown rushed for 112 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries and also caught a touchdown pass for Miami, while Trent Green completed 23-of-36 passes for 318 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Current streak:
Miami has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Oakland: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
Miami: 0-3 SU, 0-1-2 ATS

Oakland most recently:
When playing in September are 3-7
When playing on grass are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 3-7

Miami most recently:
When playing in September are 3-7
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oakland's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Oakland

Cam Cameron is upset with his special teams and said everyone will be considered for kicking game duties this week against Oakland. "Is [backup QB] Cleo Lemon going to run down on kickoff? He might," Cameron told reporters. Well, that Lane Kiffin is a quick learner, isn't he? After getting a lesson in timeout management from Broncos coach Mike Shanahan the previous week, Kiffin pulled the same move to help the Raiders beat the Browns.


Oakland +4 $33/30
Oakland ML $30/54
Over 42 $33/30

Oak 30
Mia 20

 

[Agent 0659]

Houston (2-0-1 / 2-1) at Atlanta (2-1 / 0-3):

Hou -3 (91%)
39

Two teams that put up good fights but still came away with losses in Week 3 hook up in the Georgia Dome this week. The Texans have covered five straight, while the Falcons have failed to cover in five straight at home.

Oddsmakers currently have the Texans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game's total is sitting at 41?.

The Texans lost to Indianapolis 30-24 as a 6.5-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Matt Schaub completed 27-of-33 passes for 236 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, while Ahman Green rushed for five yard on only four carries.

The Falcons lost to Carolina 27-20 as a 4-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).

Joey Harrington completed 31-of-44 passes for 361 yards with two touchdowns for Atlanta, while Roddy White caught seven passes for 127 yards and a touchdown.

Current streak:
Atlanta has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Houston: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS
Atlanta: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS

Houston most recently:
When playing in September are 3-7
When playing on turf are 0-10
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5

Atlanta most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 1-9
When playing outside the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 12 games
Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

The Texans fell back to earth versus Indy. But considering they played without their best WR (Andre Johnson) and best RB (Ahman Green was hurt early), it was a respectable showing. QB Matt Schaub gets to torch his old team, the Falcons, this week. 0 Bobby Petrino plans to discipline CB DeAngelo Hall for his outburst during the decisive drive in the loss to Carolina. Wouldn't the harshest kind of discipline be keeping Hall on the field for all 16 losses -- uh, games -- this season?

Hou -3 $33/30
Lean only to under


Hou 21
Atl 17

 

[Agent 0659]

Baltimore (2-1 / 2-1) at Cleveland (2-1 / 2-1):

Bal -4
40

Cleveland has only won once in the past three meetings with the Ravens, but they have covered the spread in all three. Can the Dawg Pound rock out a win or a cover when the erratic Ravens visit Sunday?

Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 4?-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 37?.

The Ravens edged Arizona 26-23 as a 7-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (35.5).

Steve McNair completed 20-of-27 passes for 198 yards with a touchdown for Baltimore, while Derrick Mason caught eight passes for 79 yards and a touchdown.

The Browns lost to Oakland 26-24 as a 3-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41.5).

Derek Anderson completed 18-of-37 passes for 248 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, while also rushing in for a touchdown for Cleveland and Braylon Edwards caught four passes for 83 yards and a touchdown.

Current streak:
Baltimore has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Baltimore: 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS
Cleveland: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS

Baltimore most recently:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the division are 6-4

Cleveland most recently:
When playing in September are 2-8
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the division are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

The Browns' defense is playing like a dog. Cleveland is 31st in total yards allowed, 31st in rushing yards allowed and has given up 11 TDs, most in the league. "We're going to look at everything," Romeo Crennel told the Plain Dealer. Is Brian Billick's team fading in the fourth quarter? That's what the Balitmore Sun is asking. The Ravens have been outscored 35-16 in the fourth this year after outscoring opponents 105-55 in the fourth last season.

Bal -4 $33/30
Over 40 $33/30

Bal 30
Cle 17

 

[Agent 0659]

Chicago (0-3 / 3-0) at Detroit (2-0-1 / 1-2):

Chi -3
45

The Lions were thrown to the lions in Philly. The Bears were gross with Grossman at the controls. A pair of Week 3 losers try to get on the winning track in the Detroit-Chicago battle Sunday.

Oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 3-point favorites versus the Lions, while the game's total is sitting at 44.

The Bears lost to Dallas 34-10 as a 3-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41.5).

Rex Grossman completed 15-of-32 passes for 195 yards with three interceptions and Cedric Benson rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.

The Lions lost to Philadelphia 56-21 as a 5-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (56).

Jon Kitna completed 29-of-46 passes for 446 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Detroit, while Roy Williams caught nine passes for 204 yards and a touchdown.

Team records:
Chicago: 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS
Detroit: 2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS

Chicago most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 8-2

Detroit most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 1-9

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games at home
Detroit is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Chicago


Rex Grossman is a problem but he's not the only one. The Bears are decimated by injuries, particularly on defense. S Mike Brown and DT Dusty Dvoracek are lost for the season, and now Pro Bowlers LB Lance Briggs and DT Tommie Harris are hurting. Head coach Rod Marinelli said he knew it was "a risk" to keep QB Jon Kitna in the game near the end of the 56-21 loss at Philadelphia. Kitna was sacked four times on the final three possessions. There are smart risks and dumb risks. This was a dumb one.

Det +3 $33/30
Det ML $30/38
Under 45 $33/30

Det 23
Chi 20

 

[Agent 0659]

Green Bay (1-2 / 2-1) at Minnesota (0-1-2 / 1-2):

GB -1.5 (84%)
38

Still waiting for the other Favre shoe to drop? Many doubt Green Bay's 3-0 start, but they could move to 4-0 against division rival Minnesota, bad-luck losers in KC last Sunday.

Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 1?-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game's total is sitting at 40.

The Packers defeated San Diego 31-24 as a 5.5-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Brett Favre threw for 369 yards with three touchdowns, while Donald Driver led Green Bay with six receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown.

The Vikings lost to Kansas City 13-10 as a 3-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (34).

Kelly Holcomb completed 14-of-28 passes for 165 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions and Adrian Peterson rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.

Current streak:
Green Bay has won 3 straight games.
Minnesota has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Green Bay: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
Minnesota: 1-2 SU, 1-0-2 ATS

Green Bay most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the division are 6-4

Minnesota most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Rookie RB Adrian Peterson already has 431 combined rushing/receiving yards, but he wasn't on the field during the Vikings' final drive in the loss to K.C. Mistake? Coach Brad Childress said he needed backfield protection and opted for Mewelde Moore. Apparently, the Packers have taken over for the Saints as the feel-good story this season. The schedule actually sets up quite nicely the next few weeks. No reason to think the Pack can't be 6-0 going into the Monday nighter at Denver on Oct. 29.

Min +2 $33/30
NO TOTAL!

Min 22
GB 16

 

[Agent 0659]

St. Louis (3-0 / 2-1) at Dallas (0-3 / 2-1):

Dallas -13 (87%)
46

So much for the Rams being an offensive juggernaut. So much for the Cowboys struggling with Bill Parcells gone. The Rams need a win and a big effort on D to avoid tanking the season early in Big D.

Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys listed as 11-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total is sitting at 45.

The Rams lost to Tampa Bay 24-3 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).

Marc Bulger completed 17-of-26 passes for 116 yards with three interceptions for St. Louis, while Steven Jackson rushed for 115 yards on 30 carries.

The Cowboys defeated Chicago 34-10 as a 3-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41.5).

Marion Barber rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries for Dallas, while also catching a touchdown pass, while Tony Romo completed 22-of-35 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

Current streak:
St. Louis has lost 3 straight games.
Dallas has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
St. Louis: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Dallas: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS

St. Louis most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 4-6

Dallas most recently:
When playing in September are 8-2
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

Who knew the Oct. 14 matchup against the Patriots might be the Super Bowl preview? Facing the Rams and Bills (a Monday nighter) the next two weeks, the Cowboys should be 5-0 going into the game against New England. Good teams overcome injury problems, but the Rams evidently aren't good enough to overcome all their ailments. Two-fifths of the starting O-line has already been lost for the season, Steven Jackson is out with a groin tear, and Marc Bulger is banged up.


Dallas -13 $33/30
Under 46 $33/30

Dallas 36
Stl 6

 

[Killrus]

I look forward to your post every week. Really appreciate all the info and insight..

Does the Bears/Lions game change at all with Griese at the helm?

Hope the Colts and Chargers are predicted winners

 

[jr11]

Good luck this weekend.

jr11

 

[Agent 0659]

Thanks a lot guys. Again, hoping this is the break out week.

Killrus: That score def changed, although there is not really any way to determine what will happen. My original score on that game Det 23 to Chi 14.. So I am giving Chicago almost a full 7 more points due to Griese. I like Griese, but I'm giving the edge to the home Lions......

 

[Agent 0659]

New York Jets (1-1-1 / 3-0 at Buffalo (2-1 / 2-1):

NYJ -3.5
37

Buffalo is averaging 8 points per game. Gonna be tough to cover many spreads or break their 0-3 goose egg that way. They host the Jets Sunday in a battle of AFC East teams that have been destroyed by the Pats.

Oddsmakers currently have the Jets listed as 2?-point favorites versus the Bills, while the game's total is sitting at 37.

The Jets defeated Miami 31-28 as a 3-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (36.5).

Chad Pennington threw for 124 yards with two touchdown passes, while also rushing in for a score, while Thomas Jones rushed for 110 yards on 25 carries in the win.

The Bills lost to New England 38-7 as a 16.5-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).

Trent Edwards completed 10-of-20 passes for 97 yards with an interception after replacing injured starting QB J.P. Losman, while Marshawn Lynch rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries.

Current streak:
Buffalo has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
New York: 1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS
Buffalo: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS

New York most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 6-4

Buffalo most recently:
When playing in September are 2-8
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
NY Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of the NY Jets last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets

During Sunday's win over the Dolphins, QB Chad Pennington rushed for his first touchdown since the 2004 season. If form holds true, we'll next see him reach the end zone sometime in October of 2010. The Bills' offense is averaging a league-low 200 yards. Blame them, right? Well, the defense is allowing 458.3 yards per game, also worst in the league. Blame them, right? No matter how you slice it, there are lots of culprits for the 0-3 start.


Seems like a trap line! But who am I to say......

NYJ -3 (buy) $40/30
Over 37 $33/30

NYJ 26
Buf 14

 

[Agent 0659]

Tampa Bay (2-1 / 2-1) at Carolina (2-1 / 0-3):

Car -3
39

Tampa Bay has lost 9 of 10 on the road and 7 of 8 against Carolina. Does any of that make a difference when the NFC South foes kick off Sunday as 2-1 division leaders?

Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 2?-point favorites versus the Buccaneers, while the game's total is sitting at 39?.

The Buccaneers defeated St. Louis 24-3 as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).

Earnest Graham rushed for 75 yards and a pair of touchdowns on eight carries for Tampa Bay, while Cadillac Williams rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

The Panthers defeated Atlanta 27-20 as a 4-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).

DeShaun Foster rushed for 122 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries and also caught a touchdown pass for Carolina, while Jake Delhomme completed 10-of-18 passes for 109 yards with a pair of touchdowns.

Current streak:
Tampa Bay has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Tampa Bay: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS
Carolina: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS

Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 4-6

Carolina most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

You knew the issue would arrive sooner or later. Maybe the time is now. Should David Carr be the starting quarterback ahead of Jake Delhomme? With Delhomme battling an injury problem, Carr may get the start Sunday against Tampa Bay. Jon Gruden would like to avoid any RB controversy. But Cadillac Williams is struggling and Earnest Graham came off the bench to rush for 75 yards (on eight carries) and two TDs in the win over St. Louis. For now, Gruden says Cadillac's the starter.

TB +3 $33/30
TB ML $30/42
NO TOTAL!

TB 24
Car 16

 

[Agent 0659]

Seattle (1-2 / 3-0) at San Fransisco (2-0-1 / 2-1):

Sea -1.5
40.5

Shaun Alexander's broken wrist doesn't seem to faze oddsmakers who opened Seattle as road chalk in San Francisco. Nobody who saw the 49ers demolished by Pittsburgh will wonder why.

Oddsmakers currently have the Seahawks listed as 1-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total is sitting at 42?.

The Seahawks defeated Cincinnati 24-21 as a 3-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (49.5).

Matt Hasselbeck threw for 248 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for Seattle, while Deion Branch caught six passes for 77 yards and a touchdown.

The 49ers lost to Pittsburgh 37-16 as a 9.5-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38.5).

Alex Smith completed 17-of-35 passes for 209 yards wit a touchdown and an interception for San Francisco and Frank Gore was limited to 39 rushing yards on 14 carries.

Team records:
Seattle: 2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS
San Francisco: 2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS

Seattle most recently:
When playing in September are 8-2
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 6-4

San Francisco most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of San Francisco's last 23 games at home

Have you signed Shaun Alexander's cast yet? If not, you'll have plenty of time to do so. The left wrist injury which Alexander is trying to protect probably won't heal anytime soon. It affects his ability to catch passes, but not his rushing (275 yards). The 49ers have the NFC's worst offense (223 yards avg.) and now lose TE Vernon Davis for the next two weeks. Frank Gore (24th in rushing) is looking forward to Sunday's game versus Seattle. He had 356 yards in two games against the Seahawks last year.

SF ML $30/35
Under 41 $33/30


SF 17
Sea 16

 

[Agent 0659]

Pittsburgh (3-0 / 1-2) at Arizona (1-1-1 / 1-2):

Pit -6 (87%)
42

Same old Cardinals. Same old Steelers. You can bet how that one will turn out if Arizona sticks to their historical ways and Pittsburgh sticks to theirs.

Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 4-point favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 41.

The Steelers defeated San Francisco 37-16 as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38.5).

Willie Parker rushed for 133 yards on 24 carries for Pittsburgh, while Ben Roethlisberger completed 13-of-20 passes for 160 yards with a touchdown.

The Cardinals lost to Baltimore 26-23 as a 7-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (35.5).

Cardinals' backup QB Kurt Warner replaced an ineffective Matt Leinart and completed 15-of-20 passes for 258 yards with two touchdowns, while Anquan Boldin caught 14 passes for 181 yards and two touchdowns.

Current streak:
Pittsburgh has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Pittsburgh: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
Arizona: 1-2 SU, 2-0-1 ATS

Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4

Arizona most recently:
When playing in September are 2-8
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 1-9

A few trends to consider:
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games
Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games at home

The Steelers best be prepared to face some coaches with vendettas this week at Arizona. Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant Russ Grimm were both up for the job that went to Mike Tomlin. Hard to argue with that decision. Let's see -- Matt Leinart is the starting QB but Kurt Warner will direct the team's no-huddle offense. Sounds as if the Cardinals are planning to go with the QB shuttle system. "It's a little bit weird," Warner told the Arizona Republic.

Pit -6 $33/30
Under 42 $33/30


Pit 30
Ari 10

 

[Agent 0659]

Kansas City (0-2-1 / 3-0) at San Diego (2-1 / 1-2):

SD -11.5 (13 at 5dimes)
38.5

The Chiefs got a win, while the Chargers absorbed another embarrassing loss in Week 3. San Diego remains a huge home favorite, as the wagering public expects them to bounce back from consecutive road losses.

Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 13-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 41.

The Chiefs defeated Minnesota 13-10 as a 3-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (34).

Damon Huard passed for 206 yards with a touchdown. while Dwayne Bowe caught five passes for 71 yards and a touchdown.

The Chargers lost to Green Bay 31-24 as a 5.5-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Chargers' QB Philip Rivers completed 27-of-36 passes for 306 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and Antonio Gates caught 11 passes for 113 yards.

Current streak:
San Diego has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Kansas City: 1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS
San Diego: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS

Kansas City most recently:
When playing in September are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 7-3

San Diego most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing San Diego
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
San Diego is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Is it panic time in San Diego? Maybe so. LaDainian Tomlinson told the Union Tribune that if his Chargers lose three more games to fall to 1-5, then "it's over." But that shouldn't be a problem with home games against K.C. and Oakland the next three weeks. RB Larry Johnson produced just 42 yards on 24 carries -- only the third time in his career that he has failed to reach 100 yards when given 20 or more attempts. He'll face an equally frustrated LaDainian Tomlinson this Sunday in San Diego.

KC ML $30/165
KC +12 $33/30
Under 39 $33/30

KC 16
SD 13:scared :scared :scared

 

[Happy Hippo]

KC 16
SD 13

:com: :com:

 

[Agent 0659]

Denver (2-1 / 2-1) at Indianapolis (2-0-1 / 3-0):

Ind -9.5 (79%)
46

Denver has been favored three times and failed to cover three times in 2007. Maybe being a fat road underdog to the Colts will change their ATS fortunes. Manning and the Colts are 3-0, but were unhappy with their road win in Houston.

Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 9?-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 47.

The Broncos lost to Jacksonville 23-14 as a 3-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (36).

Jay Cutler completed 16-of-23 passes for 222 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while Travis Henry rushed for 35 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries.

The Colts defeated Houston 30-24 as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Joseph Addai rushed for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns for the Colts, while Peyton Manning completed 20-of-29 passes for 273 yards with a touchdown.

Current streak:
Indianapolis has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Denver: 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS
Indianapolis: 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS

Denver most recently:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4

Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in September are 10-0
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Denver

During Tony Dungy's tenure as head coach, the Colts are 17-2 in September, including a 3-0 start this year. The Colts will go for their 12th straight September win when they host the Broncos on Sunday. Not used to seeing the Broncos' running game get shut down as it did against the Jaguars. The 47 yards rushing is the fourth lowest total since Mike Shanahan became the head coach in 1995.

Broncs to cover, but I refuse to play it!
Under 46 $33/30

I also want to note I made a large adjustment in this prediction, but it did not change the outcome (Broncs and under). The original work up was Ind 17 Den 10.



Ind 24
Den 17

 

[Agent 0659]

:com: :com:

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:


WTF is that ?:shrug:

 

[Happy Hippo]

Just saying, you might as well bury your money rather than bet on a team like the Chiefs!!

But I like that Denver score, think we might even score 8 more :00hour