Week 4 Plays

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PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Last week: 6-5, +0.6 units
YTD NFL: 16-16, -1.3 units

A little improvement after a bad start. Like they say, it's a marathon, not a sprint!

My picks this week....

I'm starting off with 2 picks which are based solely on math, not at all on my actual opinion on the games themselves:

Parlay: Philly -20 & Over 36
Parlay: Houston +20 & Under 36
1 unit to win 2.6 units each

Unique situation, where the spread on the games is equal to or greater than 1/3 of the total (it's actually more than half the total, phenomenal). In these situations, parlaying Favorite + Over, and a separate parlay of Dog + Under, is supposed to put the player in an advantageous position. So I'll give it a fly. Lots of talk about how Houston may not score any points at all, but all we need from them is about 7 points and it's almost a sure thing that one of these parlays hits (do the math, you'll see what I mean...8 points actually, is optimal). I think there's definitely a way that Houston can score ~something~, even if it's only a FG. Philly is of course the far superior team, but do they care about slamming the Texans to the ground, or do they just want to stay healthy, get their win and get off the field?


Tampa Bay -6?
Cincinnati +7?

Haven't studied the game enough to actually have an opinion, but I know it's foolish for a sportsbook to expose themselves this badly on a key number, so I'm hoping to make them pay for it. In this case, the +7? (MPC) is the one that's out of line with what everyone else is offering. A Tampa Bay win by exactly 7 nets me 2 units profit. Any other result nets me a loss of 0.1 units. I'm certainly willing to risk 0.1 of a unit for a potential 20:1 payout on a key number.

More later...
 
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PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Slight correction, just for record-keeping....

I put in each parlay pick at 0.75 units to win 1.95 units. Just to complicate matters. :)

The TB/Cin straights are both 1.1:1 as usual.
 
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PleasureGlutton
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2000
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Adding:


Chicago / Buffalo Over 44

Chicago's got some problems in the secondary, which the Bills should be able to play into nicely. At the same time, Buff's defence is really nothing to write home about, and I think the Bears can exploit some weaknesses there. Bills have three high-scoring shootouts thus far. Bears seem to play to the tempo of the opponents: Over vs the Over teams, Under vs the Under teams. I love teams that do that. :) The Utah Jazz of the NFL maybe...?


Cleveland +7 -105 (MPC)

I was really starting to get nervous about this play, but when I found a +7 -105 at MoneyPlays I just HAD to bite and take it. So many factors say Cleveland is the right side here, and getting a full TD is really hard to pass up. Cleveland's had the passing game going all three games this year, regardless of who the QB has been, and Pittsburgh's big achilles heel has been pass defence. Of course the Steelers have now had two weeks to work on their weaknesses, but I don't see Pitt blowing them out regardless. Just too many points! Hopefully things fall apart early on the Pitt sideline. It could happen. A couple bad series by Kordell and Cowher could finally decide enough is enough...but they've got no one to replace Kordell with! Downside is this has become a strong public play, unusual that an underdog is so favored by the masses. I'm not detered however, I will go with this, I believe it's the right thing to do.


Tennessee +7

A lot of people are really in love with the Raiders right now, and maybe it's a bit risky going against them off a bye. I just don't think the Titans are outclassed by this much though. I could see an outright upset here. Will take a lot for this to become a slaughter, so I am confident Tenn can cover this surprisingly large spread. Eddie George is the key here I think. Oak's D is weak against the run. A big game from George and this is gold.


Other games I am still debating, or waiting for better lines on:

KC +3: I want the hook, and I think by morning I will get it. Miami has just defeated two old rivals, Indy and NYJ. NE is on the horizon and this game stands out as an overlook. Scary part is I think we all know the Chiefs really aren't that good, and they may have shot their load last week in staying close, but not beating, the Pats.

Carolina +7: Again, I want the hook, and I think I'll get it by morning. Honestly, I think the Panthers may be a better team on a neutral field than the Packers are right now, so +7 should get the job done. Huge concern: Muhsin Muhammad may miss the game for Carolina....he's their #1 receiver and has been key to their success. If he can't go then I really have to think about this.

Jacksonville -3: I should probably put this in now, because all the -3's may be gone by morning. Hesitating though because as bad as the Jets have looked, I'm wondering if they are really THIS bad. They've played two top-calibre teams in a row and this game might be just a bit easier than they've been accustomed to. Curtis Martin's health is key too...so no play just yet.

San Diego +3?: Pretty hard to go against a team that has won 12 in a row...but this does look to me like it might be the spot where the Pats stumble. Chargers too young to know that they aren't as good as their record. Innocence of youth.... :)

Seattle -3: Initial instinct says this is correct...just gonna wait. Under is also a possibilty here, with both offences out of synch.

Will confirm which of these plays I take later.

GM
 
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GM

PleasureGlutton
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2000
2,962
5
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Toronto, ON, Canada
Well that's better. 7-4, +3.3 units for the day. Kinda sucks the record doesn't look better. Of the 4 losses, 2 were the 3/4 unit parlay bets than didn't come thru (of which one HAD to lose anyways), and another was the Cin +7? middle bet (which, paired with the TB -6? bet was just a longshot at getting back 20:1, but very likely one of the two would lose). But they all go on the record....

Anyways, no gripes. It felt better than 7-4. The units went up and that's the main thing. :) Worked a lot harder on it this week than I did the week before and felt I had a better handle on things going into it than I did last week.
 
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PleasureGlutton
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2000
2,962
5
0
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Toronto, ON, Canada
And once again my dropped play came thru. My dropped plays are 5-0 now I think. These are the picks, if any, you should probably be grabbing. LOL
 
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