Week 4 System Plays

[GM]

Recap of Week 3:
The systems went a disappointing 6-9 last week with one no-play. Detroit was the big play, and it lost (3 systems losses). The Week 3 thread has been updated to show wins in green, losses in red, no plays in gray. Take out conflicting systems and they went 5-7. If you consider one Dallas play to only negate one Washington play, they went 5-8.

Systems with an asterisk are considered more reliable in recent years. Always make sure all plays qualify at the current lines.

Onward to Week 4:
With a combination of a lot of games with home underdogs, and a lot of systems that require at least 3 games to be played, there are a TON of plays this week. 37 of them, to be exact. Yow!

This week's Big Play: Jacksonville (again!)

SIX systems say take the Jags. They were also the big play in week 2, and they won. Miami also comes up 4 times ... 3 times each for Cleveland and Tampa Bay .... four other teams are listed twice.

System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90). (1-2, 33.3% in '04)

Play on: Houston, Jacksonville

System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89). (0-1 in '04)

Play on: Jacksonville

*System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (42-28-1, 60% since '98). (no record in '04)

Play on: Atlanta

System #10 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games SU as a dog (40-22-1, 64.5% since '89). (no record in '04)

Play on: Jacksonville

System #12 - Play on a Monday Night home team that was on the road last week if their opponent was at home last week (84-46-2, 64.6% since '80). (0-1 in '04)

Play on: Baltimore

*System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62.7% since 1983). (0-2 in '04)

Play on: Cleveland, Tampa Bay

*The very rare System #17 - Can only apply to games in Week 4 or 5 - Play against a team if they scored 24 or more points in each of their first three games, and are now favored by 7 points or more in their fourth game. (20-3-1 since '73, 14-0-1 when the underdog is not winless SU, 12-1-1 in non-division games, 15-2-1 when the line is -8 or more) (no record in '04)

Play on: Chicago

*System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (5-2, 71.4% in '04)

Play the UNDER on: Phil/Chi, NE/Buf, NO/Ariz, NYJ/Mia

*System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-1, 93.8% Unders since '98). (no record in '04)

Play the UNDER on: Atl/Car (ONLY if the line drops to -3)

*System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (41-27-1, 60.3% since '98). (no record in '04)

Play the UNDER on: Atl/Car

*System #22 - Play on a home underdog that is winless for the season (minimum 3 losses). (42-21 ATS, 66.7%). (no record in '04)

Play on: Arizona, Miami, Tampa Bay, San Francisco

*System #23 - Play against an undefeated road favorite, (12-3 ATS, 80%) (2-4, 33.3% in '04)

Play on: Chicago, Buffalo, Miami

*System #24 - Play on the home underdog when both teams have winning records, or both teams have losing records (~70% since ???) (1-2, 33.3% in '04)

Play on: Cleveland, Jacksonville, San Diego, San Francisco

*System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5-1 ATS, 73.6% since '92) (1-1 in '0-4)

Play on: Buffalo (4.3), Jacksonville (4.4), Miami (4.1)

*System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (42-22, 65.6% since '92). (1-0 in '04)

Play on: Cleveland (Wash = 4.3), Tampa Bay (Den = 4.3)

*System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games. (no record in '04)

Play on: Arizona, Miami

*System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games. (no record in '04)

Play on: Jacksonville (Indy has scored 100)

*System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (19-8-1, 70.4% since '02). (5-0, 100% in '04)

Play on: Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Kansas City

============================

Systems in conflict:

? One system is on Philly, two are on Chicago
? One system is on Baltimore, one on KC


Good luck everyone!
GM

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

BOL this week


BB

 

[weedman]

thanks for providing such great info
gl

 

[Superbear]

*System #23 - Play against an undefeated road favorite, (12-3 ATS, 80%)

I like this one

 

[hawkeye]

Are these system plays form Northcoast?

 

[GM]

Are these system plays form Northcoast?

No. I've collected them from various sources over the years (and unfortunately didn't take notes on exactly where many of them came from). Some of these will come up every week pretty much...others may go for a season or more without a single play.

Systems 1 to 13 or so (excluding #8) are the oldest ones, and the ones I have the least confidence in (these are the ones I don't put asterisks next to). Over time some systems fail to deliver, and most of these lower-numbered ones have been pretty average the last season or so.

Anything numbered about 14 or higher I have more confidence in, for the most part.

I developed only 4 of them myself after doing some digging. About 10 of them come from Buzz Daly (the ones in the 20's or low 30's for the most part). Mr. Christo from this forum contributed a couple as well (#38 and #39).

Glad you enjoy them. These things were unbelieveably hot last year in the middle of the season...from about weeks 5 to 12 or so.