2025 NFL: 16-18-1 -245.41 [latest(week3): 12-10-1 +222.59]
-straights: sides: 5-3-1 (fave:4-3-1, dog:1-0)
-parlays: 1-4
-teasers: 10-11
---on teasers: sides: 17-3 (fave:6-1, dog:11-2*) totals: 5-4-1 (ov:2-2-1, un:3-2)
*I need a separate category for teased through the zero, seeing as such is allegedly an irrational move. Only example--I'm pretty sure--is where I took Eagles from -3 to +3.5. Actually--oops--also missed my first 13-point teaser (1-1 there) as only losing leg of the 4 had Falcons +7.5; a through-the-zero calamity. In most cases I can see why the number shouldn't be moved through the zero, but when there are 10 and even 13-point teasers in play, that crossing the zero transgression will likely crop up again.
===week 3 closure:
I can't complain about any bad beats on that Packers collapse, as horseshoes rained down in the late stages of some other key plays, including Eagles, Bucs teased only, Chargers, and even Chiefs which saw me niggle out a 4-way line (Chiefs W by 1-13, not to mention a token Giants +16 go on another tease). Where to count that last one in the stats--the 4-way--is beyond me, so counted as a straight play, and as a fave. 3-0 on totals last week was encouraging, but should have pounded that Packers-Browns under straight. Moving on.
===week 4:
seahawks -104 416/400
If this game were in Lumen Field then I imagine the Seahawks would be 4-5 point favorites. I've seen the Cardinals play some horrible home games over the past few years so the road trip doesn't deter. Vikings with Darnold were 6-2 on the road last year and I also note the Seahawks were a stunning 7-1 on the road last season. Cards were naturally better at home last season (6-3 vs their 2-6 road mark), but go back 2 season and Cards had only 2 wins at home to go along with their 2 on the road. That same '23 season saw Seahawks winning 5 at home while still grabbing 4 wins on the road.
Only example of Darnold playing in Arizona was in a mop-up role behind Purdy and the 49ers a couple years back, but I don't expect this to be an intimidating environment for him. Darnold did face the Cardinals last year, at home in Minny, and he needed to bring the team back from a 19-6 2nd half deficit for a Vikings 23-22 win. Deficit was not on Darnold as he put up a passer rating of 111.6, compared to Kyler Murray who finished with 72.5, guilty of the game's only 2 INT's.
Cardinals offense has been unimpressive this season and their pass defense is injured and in disarray; not that Darnold is an MVP candidate, but Cards have faced poor quarterbacks so far this season, in Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, and Mac Jones. Much expected from Seattle's D this season; it should gel more as the season moves along and, presently, the 'Hawks should be coming in with some heavy mojo, realizing that their competition for the NFC West is not majorly threatening, especially with the way that Stafford performed last Sunday; only the Packers (44) have allowed less points than the Seahawks (47) this season, and I believe that I heard that the Seahawks were the only team to allow 17 points or less in each game so far.
Early window last Sunday--before Seahawks even got rolling vs Saints--I saw this open at Seahawks +2.5. No moneyline offered, then, and the earliest I saw had Seahawks -101. I've flagged no injury concerns to watch out for, so I am grabbing this now before it reaches an expected -120, or even higher.
Shit, that took a while. Did I miss kickoff?
Likely more to come for week 4, barring reality stomp.
Good Luck.
-straights: sides: 5-3-1 (fave:4-3-1, dog:1-0)
-parlays: 1-4
-teasers: 10-11
---on teasers: sides: 17-3 (fave:6-1, dog:11-2*) totals: 5-4-1 (ov:2-2-1, un:3-2)
*I need a separate category for teased through the zero, seeing as such is allegedly an irrational move. Only example--I'm pretty sure--is where I took Eagles from -3 to +3.5. Actually--oops--also missed my first 13-point teaser (1-1 there) as only losing leg of the 4 had Falcons +7.5; a through-the-zero calamity. In most cases I can see why the number shouldn't be moved through the zero, but when there are 10 and even 13-point teasers in play, that crossing the zero transgression will likely crop up again.
===week 3 closure:
I can't complain about any bad beats on that Packers collapse, as horseshoes rained down in the late stages of some other key plays, including Eagles, Bucs teased only, Chargers, and even Chiefs which saw me niggle out a 4-way line (Chiefs W by 1-13, not to mention a token Giants +16 go on another tease). Where to count that last one in the stats--the 4-way--is beyond me, so counted as a straight play, and as a fave. 3-0 on totals last week was encouraging, but should have pounded that Packers-Browns under straight. Moving on.
===week 4:
seahawks -104 416/400
If this game were in Lumen Field then I imagine the Seahawks would be 4-5 point favorites. I've seen the Cardinals play some horrible home games over the past few years so the road trip doesn't deter. Vikings with Darnold were 6-2 on the road last year and I also note the Seahawks were a stunning 7-1 on the road last season. Cards were naturally better at home last season (6-3 vs their 2-6 road mark), but go back 2 season and Cards had only 2 wins at home to go along with their 2 on the road. That same '23 season saw Seahawks winning 5 at home while still grabbing 4 wins on the road.
Only example of Darnold playing in Arizona was in a mop-up role behind Purdy and the 49ers a couple years back, but I don't expect this to be an intimidating environment for him. Darnold did face the Cardinals last year, at home in Minny, and he needed to bring the team back from a 19-6 2nd half deficit for a Vikings 23-22 win. Deficit was not on Darnold as he put up a passer rating of 111.6, compared to Kyler Murray who finished with 72.5, guilty of the game's only 2 INT's.
Cardinals offense has been unimpressive this season and their pass defense is injured and in disarray; not that Darnold is an MVP candidate, but Cards have faced poor quarterbacks so far this season, in Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, and Mac Jones. Much expected from Seattle's D this season; it should gel more as the season moves along and, presently, the 'Hawks should be coming in with some heavy mojo, realizing that their competition for the NFC West is not majorly threatening, especially with the way that Stafford performed last Sunday; only the Packers (44) have allowed less points than the Seahawks (47) this season, and I believe that I heard that the Seahawks were the only team to allow 17 points or less in each game so far.
Early window last Sunday--before Seahawks even got rolling vs Saints--I saw this open at Seahawks +2.5. No moneyline offered, then, and the earliest I saw had Seahawks -101. I've flagged no injury concerns to watch out for, so I am grabbing this now before it reaches an expected -120, or even higher.
Shit, that took a while. Did I miss kickoff?
Likely more to come for week 4, barring reality stomp.
Good Luck.
