Week 5 NFL

[SourDoughJoe]

YTD 15-12 +5.60

Thursday
Pats after 4 games have given up 128
points, are last in defense and line was
-6' down to -4, on the road in Tampa.
Betting Tampa just seems like a huge
trap. Everyone and their mothers are
on the Bucs.

Pats -4 2x W

GL

SDJ

 

[zealot]

YTD 15-12 +5.60

Thursday
Pats after 4 games have given up 128
points, are last in defense and line was
-6' down to -4, on the road in Tampa.
Betting Tampa just seems like a huge
trap. Everyone and their mothers are
on the Bucs.

Pats -4 2x

GL

SDJ

Honest question for you here. Where are you seeing that "everyone and their mothers are on the Bucs"? Every consensus site that I frequent reflects that the Patriots are taking in 60%-70% of all bets across the board. From my end, the public is pounding the Patriots due to the less-than-a-touchdown spread.

Let me know if you're seeing something different somewhere.

Thanks!

 

[SourDoughJoe]

I'm pretty sure the line doesn't go down
by 2.5 points by betting the favorite. If
most money was being bet on Pats, the
line would be rising. You may be seeing 60%_70%
of bets on Pats, but not 60-70% of the money on
the Pats. I've been wrong before though.

Thanx

 

[zealot]

I'm pretty sure the line doesn't go down
by 2.5 points by betting the favorite. If
most money was being bet on Pats, the
line would be rising. You may be seeing 60%_70%
of bets on Pats, but not 60-70% of the money on
the Pats. I've been wrong before though.

Thanx

That's a good point of total % of bets vs. total % of money. On a side note, books move the line down on weighted favorites often. It's called reverse line movement. They move the line away from the favorite regardless of how many bets, or how much money is coming in on them, because the book agrees that the dog will cover or even outright win. So, they want as much money as possible to continue to pour in on the favorite so that they can clean up.

Anyways, I don't have a bet for tonight's game. I was just wondering. Thanks again!

 

[ldabdou]

That's a good point of total % of bets vs. total % of money. On a side note, books move the line down on weighted favorites often. It's called reverse line movement. They move the line away from the favorite regardless of how many bets, or how much money is coming in on them, because the book agrees that the dog will cover or even outright win. So, they want as much money as possible to continue to pour in on the favorite so that they can clean up.

Anyways, I don't have a bet for tonight's game. I was just wondering. Thanks again!

Dude. Where have u been?

 

[yanno]

The line move came after it was released that Gronk was out.

 

[SourDoughJoe]

YTD. 16-12 +7.60

adding:

Lions -1' 3x

GL
SDJ

 

[SourDoughJoe]

Adding:

Cowboys -2' 4x

GL
SDJ

 

[SourDoughJoe]

Adding:

Raiders -3 3x

GL
SDJ