Week 5 -- Pencilling in

[TheShrimp]

ATL +2.5 (@SIA +1.5 at others)
JAX +3
STL +7
CLE -7.5
BUFF +3
NYJ +3
NE +2.5

I really thought that CLE line would be around 5 and I was going to pounce. I might still grab some at 7.5, but that's just a lean right now. I was surprised at how high it was.

Seeing that ATL low at other places, I already played it. The others I'm pondering. I really don't like much on this week's plate, though.

The lines are definitely starting to reflect this years performance more than pre-season expectations, though. Case in point: STL +7.

 

[NuttyGambler]

My computer modeling puts this weeks lines vs Vegas lines with the biggest diff at 1.5 points. With the only exception being Carolina.

Summary not seeing much "value" this week so far.

 

[TheShrimp]

What line was that difference, Nutty?

My big differences were I had Caro -5, Ind -11 (but that's a biggie), NO -4.5, SF -5, and Clev -5.

Keep in mind that cle -5 is what I thought it WOULD be, not what I thought it SHOULD be. I thought it should have been up around 7, but that last nights game would shade it to the ravens a little.

 

[TheShrimp]

Inking in...

ATL +2.5
JAX +3 (+105)
BUFF +3 (-105)

--------
That's it for now.

I like the Jags SU at +145. I think that might go up though. The line will probably move to 3.5, but I like +3 (+105) better.

 

[TheShrimp]

And adding...

NYJ +3 (+105). I love betting these games I like with the reverse VIG. Keep it up chalkies.

TheShrimp

[Quick story without much of a point: I know a guy who bets a couple games per week with a local. So far this year he's been all over Miami over Det in wk 1 (won), Tenn ov Dallas in wk 2, STL ov TB in wk 3, Den ov Ravens and NO ov Det in wk 4. He's a one-man Goldman experiment -- a walking definition of a square. He loves the Chiefs this week. That's not why I'm adding the Jets but it was sort of the proverbial straw....]

 

[gardenweasel]

love all this jags action

love all this jags action

a little unexpected....i made a decision early on to play philly on the road in every game unless they were a 7 point or more favorite....so far i see nothing this year that would change my mind....jags have yet to see a real defense..philly`s bad run "d" vs fred taylor?...maybe..not enough for me to fade the best road team in football...another flavor of the week...i was kinda looking at playing atlanta this week and next week looking at tampa on the road getting a td or so(maybe a little less)at philly...eagles haven`t seen a real quality club at home yet....a closer look at the jags shows them a little weak in the trenches..players lost last year-boselli,gary walker,seth payne,kevin hardy,renaldo wynn,aaron beasley,keenan mccardell,hardy nickerson..philly is also clicking on all cylinders.....just one man`s opinion....

 

[TheShrimp]

I like the points at home with Philly coming off wash, dall, and hou. They're facing a whole different class of offense this week.

Wash was a 3 point dog at home to Philly. Now jacksonville is???

philly has come off 3 big and easy wins and they're going to find themselves in a battle this weekend. Gimme the 3 with the home team at better than even money.

TB is at Philly in two weeks, if I'm not mistaken, and if the game was today I don't think they would be getting a TD, probably more like 4.5. Dall was only getting 9 at philly.

 

[TheShrimp]

Adding STL +7.5
STL (+260) .5 to win 1.3
JAX (+145) .5 to win .72

That makes
STL +7.5
NYJ +3 (+105)
ATL +2.5
JAX +3 (+105)
BUFF +3 (-105)
JAX (SU)
STL (SU)
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leans on caro -3.5, den -4.5, ne +2.5, gb (+105),

 

[TheShrimp]

Yesterday : 2-5 -2.98 (call it -3.0)
Year : 22-17 +4.3

I guess the best thing about this week was that I stayed off my leans, which would have gone 1-3 (if I'd thrown that CLE game in).

Jets and Bills were both in their games late, so I can't say I totally missed the boat on those.

No play on the game tonight. IF I put down some butter-n-egg money, it will be on CHI. Both of these teams have fallen off a bit this year, probably GB moreso.

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I listened to Raven's 1H on the radio yesterday and missed the 2nd half. Very interesting stuff. Big time picks. Good special teams. Poor passing, but Jamal Lewis running the ball well. Are they starting to smell a lot like that 2000 team? Well, that team didn't exactly come out of the gates too well. Everyone loves them in retrospect, but they had pretty low expectations coming into that season. With no one (except maybe Oakland) really stepping up as the class of the AFC and with playing in what's looking like a weak division, don't count the Ravens out of a playoff spot. Who's better? Cle, Cin, Pitt. None of them is looking too great right now. I haven't written off PITT though.

Now, don't color me too excited because of two big wins, but the two teams they've lost to are 3-2 and 4-1. They have a lot of young guys who are playing well already and are only going to get better (heap, redman, reed, etc.) McAlister is playing like the man that he is and Ray Lewis almost looks like he's stepped it up if that is at all possible.

The D-stats don't look so great from the last two weeks, but keep in mind both games they were playing with 20+ point leads.

They have IND, JAX, PITT, ATL coming up so it might be rough, but I'm feeling a little better about them than I did coming into this season.

TheShrimp