Week 6 plays.............

[Scott4USC]

YTD Results
- 24.9 units ($500 unit)
- $12,450

Week 6 plays

8 units
Indiana -6 over Illinois

5 units
Miami Ohio +3.5 -120 over No Illinois

4 units
Texas Tech -2.5 -140 over Nebraska

3 units
TCU/Wyoming over 54.5

3 units
Central Michigan -1 over Army

2 units
Oklahoma +14.5 -115 over Texas

2 units
North Texas -2 over Troy

1 unit
Colorado St. -4 over Utah


***********

Edit1: Added YTD results If BYU/SDSU game went over the total, i would have won 11 units last week. :cursin: 1st quarter fawking went scoreless!

Edit2: Added Miami Ohio +3.5 & OU +14.5

Edit3: Added Miami Ohio +3.5, TCU/Wyoming over 54.5, and Indiana -6

Edit4: Added Indiana, CSU, and Central Michigan

 

[Danny Noonan]

Like the Raiders, too, Scott. Do you know if the defensive players listed as out or questionable for Tech played in the Kansas game, or have been out for awhile?

 

[ysg3]

no disrespect here just a little discussion. IMO Texas Tech is the serious sucker side here. While Nebraska is bad they are getting better each week. TT is OVERATED, and this line looks like a huge trap to me. Im thinking this will be a heavy public side in TT. Caution

 

[Scott4USC]

Danny Noonan

Sorry I do not have the answer to your question. But glad you like Texas Tech.

ysg3

It does seem like the public is all over TT. I usually don't pay much attention to where the public plays. I rely on what I think on the game. However, I been burned once this year for big 6 unit play on Idaho over Hawaii. Big reason I took Idaho was the public all over Hawaii. I thought it was classic case of false favorite and sportsbooks new what they were doing. Ended up losing BIG!

I'll post a write-up on Texas Tech shortly.

I thought MC brought up a solid pt in his thread about TT/NU.

I cannot get out of my mind the beating that Tech put on the Huskers last year as they scored at will and I wonder has the personnel changed that much to make up the 60 point difference from last year?

 

[Master Capper]

With you on NTX, but going to wait out the line on Nebraska and Tech

 

[Scott4USC]

Texas Tech :thumb:

I initially liked Texas Tech as -3 but wanted to spend more time capping it. I then come back to see major line move against me. Instead of getting TT -2.5 -120 like I planned, I now have -2.5 -140 I had to buy it despite the high vig because I know I could have had it cheaper if I reacted sooner. But I like Texas Tech a lot at -4 or less. I expect the Red Raiders to win by 10pts.

The #1 reason I initially liked TT and why I am betting on TT is I think Nebraska is an out and out fraud, If Iowa State had a field goal kicker or a semi accurate passer they would have won by 20+ points. I had Iowa St. last week for a unit at +4 and was bummed out losing.

Before I write anything further, I know TT played the weakest OOC schedule EVER and are not tested. That is a huge reason I made this a 4 unit play rather than an 8 unit play.

Who has Nebraska played?
Maine
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Iowa State

IMO, NONE of these defenses are better or as fast as Texas Tech's defense. Here is why I am optimistic. (even if TT's defense is worse)

Last week against Iowa St., Nebraska only scored 13pts in 4 quarters! IMO, TT has a better defense than Iowa St. I believe there is a very high probability Texas Tech offense will score over 13pts against Nebraska. :yup
Lets say I am wrong and TT defense is worse than Iowa St. or anybody else Nebraska faced. Even if Nebraska moves the ball on TT D, they have had trouble all year scoring TD's in the redzone.

Some people might be impressed with the Nebraska defense. I am not so sure I agree. Nebraska defense gave up 317 yards passing to Iowa St. The secondary is clearly the weakness of the Nebraska defense and they are not a very experienced unit. Doesn't TT have a powerful passing attack? Not to mention a unique passing attack?
This week will be a big test for Nebraska defense, and when they get exposed, I want to cash in on it with a big bet on TT!

Last week TT sort of struggled against their first test of the season against Kansas. IMO Kansas is a decent team for Big 12 standards. They have a quality defense and their offense is holding them back. Remember, Kansas had 2 weeks to prepare for TT and that is huge advantage. TT still scored 30pts against Kansas. I assume TT will score at least 21pts against Nebraska. Can Nebraska D hold TT O under 30pts? Can Nebraska score over 20 against Texas Tech? Nebraska only score 7pts against Pitt, 13pts in regulation against Iowa St. and only 2 offensive TD's against Wake Forest. :flush:

I like my chances with Texas Tech! Now you know why!

An added bonus............

*Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS vs Nebraska since 1996
*Texas Tech is 25-11 ATS since 1992 when playing a team with a win % higher than 75%
*Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS off DD SU win vs opponent (Nebraska) off a straight up & ATS win

Go Red Raiders!

 

[gman2]

im not sold on nebraska this year, but credit is due to their defense. they shut down one of the best running back duos in the country (andrews/ barclay from wake) and held wake to only 3 points. obviously nebraska's offense has issues, and thats enough to make me wonder if they can keep up with texas tech. but at the same time, the huskers defense is capable of keeping them in the game.

first road start of hodges' career, not to mention tech hasnt played anyone. the raiders have the potential to be very good this year, but i really cant justify them as a favorite on the road here. their defense is very much like hawaii's -- they normally struggle with physical teams because they have no practice against a power rushing game. its the reason why bowling green's rush defense is poor. its the reason why hawaii's rush defense is poor. and its the reason why tech's rush defense is poor.

there are a ton of games on the board, and im a bit surprised you chose this one to play. to me, its a coinflip. best of luck

 

[baby arm]

Tech will roll Nebraska. Certainly Nebraska's D is overrated, they have looked good against subpar competition. The Pitt game was the most boring game I have ever watched. Tech 35 Neb 13

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 3 units Miami Ohio +3.5 -120 over No Illinois

Adding 2 units Oklahoma +14.5 -115 over Texas

 

[bombercoops]

With you on this one scott. Master Capper's points are spot on as the personnel hasn't changed all that much in Lincoln to warrant a massive turn around in result this year. Playing in Nebraska is a huge advantage for the huskers as if this game were to be on the road in Lubbock, would anyone in their right mind give Nebraska a chance?? Not likely.
The point was also brought up as to TT being a huge public fav, and you're right, they already seem to be. However, does anyone remember how much the line moved in this game last year? I remember it opening at 4.5 with my local and closing at 8.5! And between the media and the guys on this forum, it had to have been one of the heaviest plays in college last year. And it covered by a measily 51.5 points! Can't see a flogging like last years result based on the fact that the game is being played in Lincoln, but see the raiders covering here and handing my huskers their first loss of the year.

 

[wscgolfer24]

Can you let me know why you would take N. Texas over troy when they scoring less than 8 points a game. Thanks

 

[Scott4USC]

Can you let me know why you would take N. Texas over troy when they scoring less than 8 points a game. Thanks

I admit taking UNT is a scary pick but I think it is the right side.

North Texas has owned conference play for a long time as evidenced by their success in conf. games.

They are just a different animal in conf. play. Maybe this has to do with their HC putting huge emphasis in winning the conf. vs OOC. Maybe he saves plays? Players? I don?t know because I do not follow them closely. But I do know North Texas has history of losing OOC games and winning conf. games. Happened the last 2 years and I will bet 2 units it happens this year!

I think both teams offenses are pathetic but we all know it is much easier to get your offense rolling at home vs on the road. Edge to North Texas and at -2 @home I basically just need them to win the game!

Poster CHILL brought up solid points about North Texas.

N.Texas 13-0 SU in Sun Belt Home Games
Troy 0-3 ATS in Sun Belt away games


N.Texas 13-3 as home fav since 1998
Troy 14-9 as away dog since 1998


Last game 2003:
(-10.5)N. Texas 21 Troy 0


N. Texas 7-0 ATS vs conference last year
Troy 4-3 ATS vs conference last year

 

[tulah]

I see you like OU. Its a no play for me. I'm not sold on them at all .
IMO Texas will want to run up the score on these guys
.
BTW I think this is who USC will be playing come Jan 4 2006
These guys are pretty damn good.

But then again Mack Brown is the Bill Cowher of NCAA
He just can't seem to win the big game.
Maybe Stoops is in his head...shoot maybe the whole teams head.


GL to you

 

[Scott4USC]

I see you like OU. Its a no play for me. I'm not sold on them at all .
IMO Texas will want to run up the score on these guys

I look at it differently. Even if Texas has the firepower to run it up, will they? Brown as we all know gets ultra conservative in big games. Vince Young didn't play great against Ohio St. like everyone thinks He easily could have cost his team the win. (yes I know he also lead his team to the win) OU is good at stopping the run. Pass D is their weakness. This Sat. is the BCS NC for OU and Texas is trying to get to the BCS NC game.

BTW I think this is who USC will be playing come Jan 4 2006
These guys are pretty damn good.

I agree. But there is one problem with Texas and their "touted" D. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN TESTED! No offense they play this year comes close to USC offense. Mack Brown will have them prepared to defend it? I doubt it. Stoops D looked CLUELESS against USC in OB last year. Teams in other conf. usually have trouble defending a Pac 10 offense. USC is a notch above a regular Pac 10 offense!

Texas, V-Tech, Georgia, and Ohio St. are all ranked in the top 6. All 4 have MOBILE QB's. I freaking hate it when USC plays mobile QB's.

I am hoping if USC is fortunate enough to make it to the Rose Bowl, that USC plays Florida St. I am rooting big time for FSU all year! 2nd team I am rooting for is Alabama!

But then again Mack Brown is the Bill Cowher of NCAA
He just can't seem to win the big game.
Maybe Stoops is in his head...shoot maybe the whole teams head.

I will find the OU/UT game very interesting if the early breaks go OU's way. How will Texas respond? There is no doubt in my mind Texas is the better team and should win.

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 2 more units Miami Ohio +3.5 -120 over Northern Illinois

Adding 3 units TCU/Wyoming over 54.5 (Olympic)

Adding 4 units Indiana -6 over Illinois


I am looking hard at.........

Boston college -7 over Virginia
UCLA -1.5 over Cal
Northwestern +7 over Wisconsin

I notice the TT line is going down. I will def. add to my wager if it goes down to -3. TT will beat Nebraska by 10pts. Hopefully services will be all over Nebraska.

 

[Scott4USC]

Miami Ohio :thumb:

Miami Ohio plays on the road tonight in a hostile environment. That would concern me but Miami Ohio is one of the most experienced teams in the MAC. Nationally, both teams have great offenses and below average defenses.

The difference is Miami Ohio has the better defense. They rank near the top of the MAC in many defensive categories but their strength is against the run. Weakness is against the pass. On the flip side, Northern Illinois has one of the worst defenses in the MAC. Need an example? In NIU's last game their D gave up 48pts to AKRON. This season, NIU is giving up an average of 39ppg to div 1a opponents. :scared If you look at their average vs all 4 opponents this seasson it is 30ppg. It is skewed because they only gave up 3 pts to a 1aa opponent. :mj11:

Sagarin Ratings
Miami Ohio 71
NIU 65

But what I find interesting is Sagarin has both teams playing same SOS ranked #74 and #72. That should add more validity to his power rankings. I think Miami Ohio is 4pts better than NIU.

Miami Ohio is 0-1 in conf. play losing to Central Michigan 38-37. Northern Illinois is 0-1 in conf. play losing to Akron 48-42. It just so happens that last week Central Michigan played Akron and won impressively 31-17. :mj03:

Miami Ohio is coming into this game on a groove. They are clicking offensively and defensively having won their last 2 games by double digits and holding both opponents to an average of 13pts. On the flip side, Northern Illinois comes into this game 1-3 for the year and having ZERO wins against div. 1a opponents. ;142loser: I like Miami Ohio to win SU but +3.5 -120 creates a lot of value and def. worth 5 units!

An added bonus........

Miami Ohio is 5-1 ATS as road dogs off SU win

Go Red Hawks!

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 4 more units Miami Ohio +3.5 -120

Told myself when Angels won the west I was going to take those winnings and put it on a CFB game this weekend. Instead of using it to offset "part" of my "large" negative units for CFB season. Well I have chosen Miami Ohio tonight so I added 4 more units onto it.

Hope it hits! :thumb:

Call it my MAC GOY!

Lost my CFB GOY but I am 3-0 on Trend GOY's!

 

[Scott4USC]

CHANGE OF HEART!

:director:

Adding 6 units Northern Illinois -3 over Miami Ohio


More I thought about it, this game is 50/50 IMO and I am getting +3.5. That is value. But not worth freaking 9 units. Even if Miami Ohio covers, risking to win 3 units is the smart play. Risking to win 9 units is the DUMB play. :mj16: I'll save my big bet for a better game. TEXAS TECH if the line goes down!

Miami Ohio wins by 4pts tonight and I win 3 units!!! :clap:

 

[taoist]

CHANGE OF HEART!

:director:

Adding 6 units Northern Illinois -3 over Miami Ohio


More I thought about it, this game is 50/50 IMO and I am getting +3.5. That is value. But not worth freaking 9 units. Even if Miami Ohio covers, risking to win 3 units is the smart play. Risking to win 9 units is the DUMB play. :mj16: I'll save my big bet for a better game. TEXAS TECH if the line goes down!

Miami Ohio wins by 4pts tonight and I win 3 units!!! :clap:

...as freelanc would say....


:mj03: :idea:



:thinking: :wtf:



:ban:

 

[ALLAN]

Small post on TT and NU- All over TT- 56 to 10 score and tt shows how overrated that nu defense is-
GL