Recap of Week 5:
The systems finished the week at a flat 10-10. Not surprising given there were so many conflicting systems. There was no big play last week (no play with more than 2 systems on it). The Week 5 thread has been updated to show wins in green, losses in red and no-plays in gray. Take out conflicting systems and they went 7-7.
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Onward to Week 6:
This week's Big Play: There really isn't one. San Francisco and Oakland both come up twice. Washington comes up once, with a second play possible with a little bit of line movement. No one else comes up more than once.
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System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89). (2-1, 67% in '04)
Play on: Philadelphia, St Louis
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91). (1-0 in '04)
Play on: Detroit (if line stays below 3)
*System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (42-28-1, 60% since '98). (3-0, 100% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Carolina, Washington (if they are the underdog)
*System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (29-5, 85.3% since start of '02, including 15-4, 78.9% when the team in question was favored on the road). (0-2 in '04) **updated**
Play on: San Francisco, Oakland
*System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (9-6, 60% in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Mia/Buf, Car/Phil, Cin/Clev, KC/Jax, Minn/NO, TB/StL
*System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-1, 93.8% Unders since '98). **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Wash/Chi (if Chi is favored)
*System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (41-27-1, 60.3% since '98). (2-0, 100% in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Car/Phil, Wash/Chi (if Chi is favored)
*System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) (15-2 ATS, 88.2% since '02) (no record in '04) **updated**
Play on: Oakland
*System #34 - Play on a home dog, if they lost SU as a road favorite last week (16-4-2, 80% since '98) (no record in '04). **updated**
Play on: Jacksonville
*System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games. (1-2, 33% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Miami (note, both times this system lost this year it was on Miami)
*System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (19-8-1, 70.4% since '02). (9-2, 81.8% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Pittsburgh, Houston, Washington, San Francisco
*System #39 - Play the Over when the home team is coming off a bye, is favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (11-2 Over, 84.6% since '98). (1-0 in '04) **updated**
Play the OVER on: Car/Phil (if the total reaches 42? or higher)
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Systems in conflict:
One system is on Carolina, one is on Philadelphia.
Two systems say to play UNDER on Car/Phil, one system MAY indicate an OVER play on Car/Phil (pending line movement).
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Note: All records listed do not include the current season. Records for '04 are listed separately, and will be added to the cumulative count at the end of the season. This just simplifies my record-keeping, in addition to showing which systems have been effective this season.
The systems finished the week at a flat 10-10. Not surprising given there were so many conflicting systems. There was no big play last week (no play with more than 2 systems on it). The Week 5 thread has been updated to show wins in green, losses in red and no-plays in gray. Take out conflicting systems and they went 7-7.
===============================
Onward to Week 6:
This week's Big Play: There really isn't one. San Francisco and Oakland both come up twice. Washington comes up once, with a second play possible with a little bit of line movement. No one else comes up more than once.
===============================
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89). (2-1, 67% in '04)
Play on: Philadelphia, St Louis
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91). (1-0 in '04)
Play on: Detroit (if line stays below 3)
*System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (42-28-1, 60% since '98). (3-0, 100% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Carolina, Washington (if they are the underdog)
*System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (29-5, 85.3% since start of '02, including 15-4, 78.9% when the team in question was favored on the road). (0-2 in '04) **updated**
Play on: San Francisco, Oakland
*System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). (9-6, 60% in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Mia/Buf, Car/Phil, Cin/Clev, KC/Jax, Minn/NO, TB/StL
*System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-1, 93.8% Unders since '98). **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Wash/Chi (if Chi is favored)
*System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (41-27-1, 60.3% since '98). (2-0, 100% in '04) **updated**
Play the UNDER on: Car/Phil, Wash/Chi (if Chi is favored)
*System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) (15-2 ATS, 88.2% since '02) (no record in '04) **updated**
Play on: Oakland
*System #34 - Play on a home dog, if they lost SU as a road favorite last week (16-4-2, 80% since '98) (no record in '04). **updated**
Play on: Jacksonville
*System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games. (1-2, 33% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Miami (note, both times this system lost this year it was on Miami)
*System #37 - Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (19-8-1, 70.4% since '02). (9-2, 81.8% in '04) **updated**
Play on: Pittsburgh, Houston, Washington, San Francisco
*System #39 - Play the Over when the home team is coming off a bye, is favored by 7 or more, and the total is 42? or more (11-2 Over, 84.6% since '98). (1-0 in '04) **updated**
Play the OVER on: Car/Phil (if the total reaches 42? or higher)
===============================
Systems in conflict:
One system is on Carolina, one is on Philadelphia.
Two systems say to play UNDER on Car/Phil, one system MAY indicate an OVER play on Car/Phil (pending line movement).
===============================
Note: All records listed do not include the current season. Records for '04 are listed separately, and will be added to the cumulative count at the end of the season. This just simplifies my record-keeping, in addition to showing which systems have been effective this season.
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