Week 7 - Back to basics, nice and early

[chuckdman]

Week 6: 1-1 (+.8 Units)
YTD: 16-9 (+8.8 Units)

Going with these early picks. As usual, I like the better teams I am not much of a dog picker unless I see spreads in DD but I like these 3 early even though they probably will be hit hard by the public.

Tampa -3 (-120) bought .5pt (3 Units) - TBay vs San Fran. I read 1 post on Madjackets questioning this line and I have to say this is a gift IMO. Tampa is not an offensive machine by any means but SF has issues on defensive as well as offensive. Garcia is one of my favourites but hes been having LOTS of pressure this year. SF OL can't block a cat.. Need to go with the Champs here without question.

Baltimore -2 (1 unit) - Got a chance to watch Balitmore this weekend and yes it was against Arizona but Jamal Lewis really impresses me when i watch him. Looking for Lewis on O and Lewis on D to make the difference here. Nothing big but maybe will add something after I do some more homework on this game

KC -3 (-120) Bought .5 pt (3 Units) - KC vs Oakland. NO CLUE why Oakland is not a DD underdog or close here. KC has been playing great. They have a excellent offense with a good passing ability and running game is good with the priest. Oakland has nothing going for them right now. They have issues on the bench and really dont see them even competting in this game. This line will go up so I will take it now and take the .5 pt for good measure but I should donate some points to Oakland

Early leans..... GB/St Louis 49 Under.. Favre in a Dome theory even though Robin (Green) is running the ball well... STL -4... Washington +2.5, Maimi under 37.5

Good Luck to the boys of Madjacks.. and Gals of course!

 

[chuckdman]

Adding units

Adding units

After reading more and more about the KC/Oakland matchup, I have to gamble more here and take a shot at the man. I did it in week 2 and took the Bills BIG (won). Also did it on the TBay/Indy game and it bit me hard but this time I dont believe the officials with fawk up another Monday night game, at least not this soon

Adding 2 units KC -3 (-120, Bought .5 pt)

GOOO Chiefs! Oakland, do us a favour and take a nap .... oops, you already are! :thefinger

Enjoy Boys!! Take some $$$ home to the wife! Dad and the kids need an Xbox!

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

GL to you chuckdman! I have to say after my initial look at next weeks lines that these are the 3 games that stood out - all 3 look like very "public bets" - which is what scares me - but as i reported in my stats thread - road favorites have been covering at exactly 80% this season...so you do have that on your side...the good teams are showing up on the road...

The big thing to remember is that all 3 of these teams are in their 2nd straight road game & all 3 of these teams covered the spread during their last game...it is very, very hard to cover 2 straight games on the road ATS....this is what scares me most about these games...I usually like to play the dogs & the first thing i look at is the home dogs - in these games we have Oakland, SF & Cincinatti...all 3 I do think have a chance to keep the games close & even win outright...however the way things have been going w/ road faves covering - i wouldn't be surprised to see 2 of the 3 faves cover...I think many people will be playing Baltimore, KC & TB this weekend - only time will tell if the road faves keep covering!

GL w/ your plays this weekend!

--showrunner

 

[MrChristo]

it is very, very hard to cover 2 straight games on the road ATS

Baltimore, at least, are in a very favourable situation (surprisingly!)...

League: 15-3 ATS (Av. win 10.3) any away fav off an ATS win as away 7- fav.

Really like Baltimore here.

Garcia is one of my favourites but hes been having LOTS of pressure this year.

Actually looking for a prop...'Time of Death: Jeff Garcia"

Sacked 4 times v. Seattle, and countless knock-downs...Now facing Rice, Sapp and very likely a kitchen sink this week!!

Good luck guys.

 

[chuckdman]

...I usually like to play the dogs & the first thing i look at is the home dogs - in these games we have Oakland, SF & Cincinatti...all 3 I do think have a chance to keep the games close & even win outright
--showrunner

I have a reason to my madness which I try to follow but sometimes do stray from my ideas. I use this reasoning with most of the sports I bet and that is to look at crap teams and fade them till they prove me wrong. This works for me and I took this theory into count when placing these bets. I dont think Oakland or SF have a chance of winning this outright, unless the the teams they are playing completely meltdown. Defensively, Oak and SF should not stop TBay and KC... now its really up to the offensive to put 21+ points on the board to win!!

New to the list is SF, they have been playing bad football. They are disorganized, have a poor defense who is constantly on the field and they're offence is broken. The OL was broken this weekend (not that it was good to being with) and they had 2nd stringers in there vs Seattle. Tampa is much better than Seattle on Defense, so I believe SF will be lucky to get 14 points on the board.

Oakland, what can I say, 0-6 ATS this year and looking worse than that. They can't score except the one game vs SD (another losing bunch), their defense can't stop the run if their lives depended on it and on top of that, they have internal problems which are showing on the field. Unless KC meltdowns and forget they have Holmes, Oakland will not win.

Cinninati are stil the bungels IMO. I hit Balitmore light but picked them because I had a chance to watch a complete Balitmore game (2nd this year). Jamal Lewis is for real. When he runs, his legs do not stop till he's on the ground. I don't like rookie QBs much and try to stay way but the Jamal factor and defensive team of Baltimore will keep Cinni to minimal points IMO. Now its up to Balitmore to score points.. which they should.. considering the Bills did it last week to the Bungals.

Mr. Christo. I agree with you about Jeff Garcia. The poor chap has no protection. Mind you they lost 2-3 starters on their OL vs Seattle but even before last nights game, he has been seeing too much pressure to do anything with the ball. Unfortunately if there was a prop out there for Garcia to get killed before the season end, I think the juice on that would be -500 at least Too chalk for me..

Enjoy Boys and Gals... Have fun this week and good luck!!

 

[BigSix]

chuckdman,

I'm riding your coatail on all 3 of these picks!

:Yep:

 

[hogman14]

Actually looking for a prop...'Time of Death: Jeff Garcia"

:lol: :lol:

 

[rc conditioner]

nice record chuck

smart thing to take K.C. now, there should be some line movement for sure.

good luck to you

 

[chuckdman]

TEEEEEEASER!

TEEEEEEASER!

I started with my first teaser of the year last week (didnt post) and won.. how about I post one this week I am going to take.


6.5 PT teaser - 5 Team

Washington +9.5
KC +3
TB +3
GB/St Louis UNDER 56
Seattle -4

1 unit pays 4.4 Units.... Risking 1 unit.


Good Luck boys!

 

[badjab]

I'm with you on KC, TB, and Bal

These lines practically jumped out and bit me (much in the way that TB -4 at Atlanta did a few weeks back).

Despite these being road games, the favorites should have little trouble covering the spread.

The Notre Dame vs. USC game on Saturday could be compared to the Raiders-Chiefs matchup. Both are rivals and the dominant team is on the road. Yet USC is favored by 8, whereas KC is only favored by 3.5. Dante Hall was kept out of the end zone (barely) last week...he'll get in this week.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Actually looking for a prop...'Time of Death: Jeff Garcia"
[/B]

To go along with 'Time of Decapitation: Chris Chandler' prop as Jauron takes the ever popular Vegas act "The Fabulous Chicago Bears and The Non-Existant O-Linesmen" on the road to Seattle.

 

[chuckdman]

MONDAY... BE GOOD!

MONDAY... BE GOOD!

The Bungals handed it to the Ravens this week and it hurt but not as bad as the 49er beating they gave to Tampa. Looks like TO has finally awaken but still managed to drop a few balls..

I NEED THIS KC/OAK Game.. I have KC -3.. just to make the whole weekend end in a +0.2 unit week Also have a bet with J gates for a baseball cap so with that

LETS GO CHIEFS!! Don't disappoint your followers!

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by SHOWRUNNER
...I usually like to play the dogs & the first thing i look at is the home dogs - in these games we have Oakland, SF & Cincinatti...all 3 I do think have a chance to keep the games close & even win outright
--showrunner
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wow - scary - i guess i was right on these teams having a chance to win outright - Cincinatti & SF won - hopefully Oakland doesn't make it 3...

Hopefully KC covers tonight - i think they win by 14...i guess we found out though that the 2 big public bets on Baltimore & TB were too good to be true - hope KC doesn't make it 3...looks like some of the home dogs are ready to step up...

Wish i would have went w/ my original caution on Baltimore & TB...but that's what makes this interesting...sometimes we look too much into a game & it swings our initial thoughts the other way - at first i leaned on Cincy & SF & Oak - ended up playing Balt & TB & KC...oh well - that's how it goes!

GL w/ the play tonight - hope KC comes through for us!!

 

[chuckdman]

Update....

Don't know what happened to Balitmore since I was in Detroit watching the Lions take a beating.. Tampa bay screws me again for the 2nd time in a row... and thank God KC held on to that win else it would have been trouble.

Got to kill the book next week!!

Good luck boys!

Week 7: 1-2 (+.3 Units)
YTD: 17-11 (+9.1 Units)